Discussion SC 2021: Rookie Discussion
- Thread starter Brettthejett
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Whooa, fckn crunch. Kid can tackle and looks a good size - Sam Berry
https://www.afl.com.au/video/465407...dal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1594753200001
https://www.afl.com.au/video/465407...dal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1594753200001
Well put it this way...i expect him to play 10 or so games this year. is it rounds 1-10...maybe not but I am willing to back his potential. Note I am also not starting a donut this year so i feel less risk with this even if he is out after 1 or 2 weeks.
Every game i see him play he gives great tackling pressure, he is physical, he knows where the goals are so he has an extra string to his bow there.......To be fair he likely is only inthe team as Crouch isn't playing but once you get a spot it is yours to lose. Going by his effort (and the efforts of some of his more experienced mates on occasions) I am willing to gamble he gets a go. The 'old crows culture' would certainly see him straight out even after an amazing game. I am hoping the 'new crows culture' rewards effort and performance.
So in short there is a bit of 'my boy' shiny new toy Adelaide bias but my justification on picking him is above *disclaimer don't blame me if it doesn't work out haha*
Every game i see him play he gives great tackling pressure, he is physical, he knows where the goals are so he has an extra string to his bow there.......To be fair he likely is only inthe team as Crouch isn't playing but once you get a spot it is yours to lose. Going by his effort (and the efforts of some of his more experienced mates on occasions) I am willing to gamble he gets a go. The 'old crows culture' would certainly see him straight out even after an amazing game. I am hoping the 'new crows culture' rewards effort and performance.
So in short there is a bit of 'my boy' shiny new toy Adelaide bias but my justification on picking him is above *disclaimer don't blame me if it doesn't work out haha*
Figured I'd do my rookie rankings, to jot them down if nothing else.
Basically job security, scoring potential and price are what really matter here. If I don't list them I think they're no chance of playing. Only including the sub 200k guys as everyone already knows the story on Young, Clark, Jiath and Fantasia types. I have included Cahill in the forwards though as at 160k and genuinely relevant he's important.
Defender
1. T. Highmore - Job security is shady but he should score decently and I think he's good enough to lock down the position. Big risk here is if they go with Carlisle against any of the big forwards, so could get dropped and if Carlisle then played well could stay out. It's not a great sign he's first!
2. J. Koschitzke - Job security starts well but he's going to need to defend the position and there's enough challengers. Scoring potential as a young KPF in a bad team is not good but hopefully can kick a couple over the first few rounds and hold the spot and make some cash.
3. N. Murray - Looks set to miss round one with the ankle which rubs him out. Basically think he's equal to the more expensive trio below but his JS is lower with Talia looming. Rule him out if he misses though as don't think he gets in after this round.
4. N. Cox - Role is the best, scoring potential is the best, job security is probably the best but he's expensive and the scoring potential is linked to the role which if he doesn't perform goes out the window and it's a role that has eaten quite a few young players. Reckon Cale Morton and Kamdyn McIntosh are similar role rookies and both went 60+ but had some struggles as well.
5. J. Butts - He's right there next to Cox, JS I think is good but if he gets beaten badly there's going to be threats, think he holds the 2nd tall spot over Murray though as he's shown a bit. Ideal world he gets an intercept role for a week or two. I probably feel safer in his scoring than Cox but think Cox has more upside unless Doedee gets hurt, which sadly at this point seems a solid chance.
6. L. Jones - Just don't think he's in the side come round one. He'd have the best scoring potential as he's genuinely AFL ready but so many senior players to beat for a spot and seems to be behind Bergman as well. If a few injuries hit and he comes in he's a top tier downgrade target though and expect he does play at some point.
7. Briggs - If he does play it's as a forward which I don't think he'll do well at. I don't think he plays though. If Flynn gets injured, move him to the very top of the list.
8. Sharp - Don't think he plays. If he does, I doubt it's regularly. I do think he can score well though. If he plays he's probably actually challenging Cox for mine given the price difference.
As you can see, I've basically got two cheap guys, one with bad job security, and two guys with premiums playing. It's a bad crop, Cox I quite like the look of but he's not the kind of rookie I'd normally be chasing.
Mids (I've included forwards here as the abundance of premium rookies makes them more needed in the mids).
1. B. Campbell - The only rookie I think can score above 85 and the clear standout at this point given his role and skillset. Worth the premium for mine.
2. T. Powell - Not confirmed yet as far as I know but he looked legit last week and I think he needs to play at the AFL level from the start for his development.
3. A. Scott - His role was great in the preseason and as a mature aged guy with a few injuries to his competition keeping his door wide open he looks the goods and will get the chance. Could make a very good case over Powell.
4. E. Gulden - Role is his biggest issue but he's a class player and it wouldn't shock me if he's getting midfield minutes by round 4 as he's already ticking all the boxes as a player and the Swans midfield is, let's go with poor.
5. C. Downie - Job security is shaky and may not play round one. If he does though his scoring potential is far greater than the other names available.
6. J. Jordon - This is the tough one, he was utterly underwhelming in preseason but Goodwin obviously has a soft spot for him and his role was as good or better than any other rookie. Confirmed in round one is a nice bonus. Viney looming as a threat but there's still a couple of midfield spots in play even with him back and possession is 9/10ths!
7/8/9. E. Smith/L. Valente/S. Berry - I don't expect any of them to play round one but if they do I think their favourable roles and scoring potential in those roles would put them ahead of the next few guys, kind of rookies who would take and demand their spots in the team which obviously means good SC scores but not expecting to see them but they're all at least chances thanks to injuries/ability (or in Berry's case, teammates lack of ability).
10. L. McNeil - Don't like the role, JS is certainly going to be a weekly proposition but he's cheep!
11. T. Brockman - Job security is a concern but the role is the bigger factor. DPP and cheap put him ahead of Bruhn but basically playing similar roles. Wingard could take that role on return, especially if underdone. To be fair though I think Brockman gets a genuine chance at it.
12. T. Bruhn - Don't like the role, JS is better than McNeil but still not good in a difficult role and side that will be chasing finals. If he was cheaper he'd be a bit higher though.
13. L. Bramble - Wouldn't be surprised if he's named but I'm not expecting it right now. His role was bad in a weak side. Mostly not expecting he plays though. Next minute he gets midfield minutes and is the best rookie because Clarko
14. A. Perkins - Don't expect he's named, don't think he scores terribly well if he is and he's expensive.
O'Brien to me doesn't have the job security at his price given Williams and Martin are to return and I think he offers little over the above guys.
Basically job security, scoring potential and price are what really matter here. If I don't list them I think they're no chance of playing. Only including the sub 200k guys as everyone already knows the story on Young, Clark, Jiath and Fantasia types. I have included Cahill in the forwards though as at 160k and genuinely relevant he's important.
Defender
1. T. Highmore - Job security is shady but he should score decently and I think he's good enough to lock down the position. Big risk here is if they go with Carlisle against any of the big forwards, so could get dropped and if Carlisle then played well could stay out. It's not a great sign he's first!
2. J. Koschitzke - Job security starts well but he's going to need to defend the position and there's enough challengers. Scoring potential as a young KPF in a bad team is not good but hopefully can kick a couple over the first few rounds and hold the spot and make some cash.
3. N. Murray - Looks set to miss round one with the ankle which rubs him out. Basically think he's equal to the more expensive trio below but his JS is lower with Talia looming. Rule him out if he misses though as don't think he gets in after this round.
4. N. Cox - Role is the best, scoring potential is the best, job security is probably the best but he's expensive and the scoring potential is linked to the role which if he doesn't perform goes out the window and it's a role that has eaten quite a few young players. Reckon Cale Morton and Kamdyn McIntosh are similar role rookies and both went 60+ but had some struggles as well.
5. J. Butts - He's right there next to Cox, JS I think is good but if he gets beaten badly there's going to be threats, think he holds the 2nd tall spot over Murray though as he's shown a bit. Ideal world he gets an intercept role for a week or two. I probably feel safer in his scoring than Cox but think Cox has more upside unless Doedee gets hurt, which sadly at this point seems a solid chance.
6. L. Jones - Just don't think he's in the side come round one. He'd have the best scoring potential as he's genuinely AFL ready but so many senior players to beat for a spot and seems to be behind Bergman as well. If a few injuries hit and he comes in he's a top tier downgrade target though and expect he does play at some point.
7. Briggs - If he does play it's as a forward which I don't think he'll do well at. I don't think he plays though. If Flynn gets injured, move him to the very top of the list.
8. Sharp - Don't think he plays. If he does, I doubt it's regularly. I do think he can score well though. If he plays he's probably actually challenging Cox for mine given the price difference.
As you can see, I've basically got two cheap guys, one with bad job security, and two guys with premiums playing. It's a bad crop, Cox I quite like the look of but he's not the kind of rookie I'd normally be chasing.
Mids (I've included forwards here as the abundance of premium rookies makes them more needed in the mids).
1. B. Campbell - The only rookie I think can score above 85 and the clear standout at this point given his role and skillset. Worth the premium for mine.
2. T. Powell - Not confirmed yet as far as I know but he looked legit last week and I think he needs to play at the AFL level from the start for his development.
3. A. Scott - His role was great in the preseason and as a mature aged guy with a few injuries to his competition keeping his door wide open he looks the goods and will get the chance. Could make a very good case over Powell.
4. E. Gulden - Role is his biggest issue but he's a class player and it wouldn't shock me if he's getting midfield minutes by round 4 as he's already ticking all the boxes as a player and the Swans midfield is, let's go with poor.
5. C. Downie - Job security is shaky and may not play round one. If he does though his scoring potential is far greater than the other names available.
6. J. Jordon - This is the tough one, he was utterly underwhelming in preseason but Goodwin obviously has a soft spot for him and his role was as good or better than any other rookie. Confirmed in round one is a nice bonus. Viney looming as a threat but there's still a couple of midfield spots in play even with him back and possession is 9/10ths!
7/8/9. E. Smith/L. Valente/S. Berry - I don't expect any of them to play round one but if they do I think their favourable roles and scoring potential in those roles would put them ahead of the next few guys, kind of rookies who would take and demand their spots in the team which obviously means good SC scores but not expecting to see them but they're all at least chances thanks to injuries/ability (or in Berry's case, teammates lack of ability).
10. L. McNeil - Don't like the role, JS is certainly going to be a weekly proposition but he's cheep!
11. T. Brockman - Job security is a concern but the role is the bigger factor. DPP and cheap put him ahead of Bruhn but basically playing similar roles. Wingard could take that role on return, especially if underdone. To be fair though I think Brockman gets a genuine chance at it.
12. T. Bruhn - Don't like the role, JS is better than McNeil but still not good in a difficult role and side that will be chasing finals. If he was cheaper he'd be a bit higher though.
13. L. Bramble - Wouldn't be surprised if he's named but I'm not expecting it right now. His role was bad in a weak side. Mostly not expecting he plays though. Next minute he gets midfield minutes and is the best rookie because Clarko
14. A. Perkins - Don't expect he's named, don't think he scores terribly well if he is and he's expensive.
O'Brien to me doesn't have the job security at his price given Williams and Martin are to return and I think he offers little over the above guys.
