Strategy Round 2: Trades

[OnTopBar]

Seems to be a hard and fast rule amongst a few:
<=2 weeks = hold
>= 3 weeks = trade

Interested in people's mathematical rationale behind this and if it's a consistent rationale across those employing it.

Don't know if it's just mathematical, guess most are factoring in a 150pt loss, but I think it's more of an opportunity for a correctional trade too.

I've been having a bit of a think about trading him out since you raised the question and a couple of things have got me thinking about keeping.

Firstly, he seems to have groin issues and maybe a 3 week rest will help.

Secondly, Cameron should be due back around the same time that he is.

Thirdly, he becomes a POD and I don't have to get him back again, saving a trade at least.

Fourthly, he might be a loophole option, but I haven't looked at the fixture yet to see if that's viable.

Seems to me to be a good case for holding, although I've currently got 9 rookies on field and would have to field 10 for the next 3 weeks.

 

[Meltingpot38]

Danger gone for 3.
Danger to Dusty and maybe upgrade Jones (who I was stupidly stuck with) to Cox

 

[Drew]

So ahh would I be crazy to think of Tex Walker as a stepping stone out of this Dangerfield conundrum?

B/E of -35 and Sydney, GC and North to come...... anyone care to tell me what’s he’d have to score from here to make $150k in the next three games?

 

[Shannon]

So ahh would I be crazy to think of Tex Walker as a stepping stone out of this Dangerfield conundrum?

B/E of -35 and Sydney, GC and North to come...... anyone care to tell me what’s he’d have to score from here to make $150k in the next three games?

Here are his last 3 years SC averages :-



Big gamble for mine.

 

[Drew]

Here are his last 3 years SC averages :-

View attachment 27582

Big gamble for mine.

Oh I hear ya, I just think the next run of three games should easily be viewed as winnable for the Crows and their new look forward line with just the two talls of Walker and Billy Frampton means there should be plenty of goals on offer - especially against North and the Suns. If it wasn’t that run of games I’d be far less bullish.

 

[armesy]

Bit of a reshuffle for me.

Danger to H Young in defense. He was very close to starting in my side and i liked what i saw on the weekend.

Removes a Defender rookie from my field and adds another in the mid or fwd. Will now be fielding 2 rookies in each.

Gives me some more flexibility and 350k in the bank to move on a failed midpricer to a fallen premium early on. Namely, Neale, Gawn, Lloyd who had a poor scores.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Definitely needs to be a season long keeper.

Defence I am 4 premiums + Fantasia + 3 rookies.

Still think J Clark , Cumming & the young brothers could offer tremendous value their depending on Round 2 scores so not sure I want to committee to 5 premiums so soon.

Mids 4 premiums + Cripps

Fwds Danger , Dunkley , Dusty , Zorko , JZ + 3 rookies

3 Rookies ruck

The concern I have is will I need all/some of Jordon , McDonald & Warner and if both forward options how I fit them in (swing F/M premiums to the mids)

Also the bigger concern is if I need to fix Hunter where the only way would possibly be short term with Hickey/Martin.

Maybe I just lock in Danger - > Warner now then reassess and build the Bank for Round 3 and deal with it then.

Titch does look a enticing option though.

Swap for Mitchell no brainer

 

[BIGB0Y]

I don’t know why I started with de goey. I can’t stand looking at him in my team.
Danger/de goey to dusty/mills.

 

[Herbie66]

Swap for Mitchell no brainer

Thought I read he may have a concern with ribs.

Think I might back my initial thinking and go Heeney + $$$.

Round 2 normally throws up some new debutants and their a quite a few $ 200-275k players that could be a avenue to some quick cash.

Thinking if Hunter/Meek do get dropped if they are only scoring 40's it might not be such a big deal after all.

 

[Quasimodo]

Thought I read he may have a concern with ribs.

Think I might back my initial thinking and go Heeney + $$$.

Round 2 normally throws up some new debutants and their a quite a few $ 200-275k players that could be a avenue to some quick cash.

Thinking if Hunter/Meek do get dropped if they are only scoring 40's it might not be such a big deal after all.

Not sure there's too much to worry about on the Titch health front. Not sighted on today's injury list - not even as a "test" - but I guess it doesn't hurt to keep one's ear to the ground as the week unfolds.

https://www.afl.com.au/matches/injury-list

I'm still flicking between Dusty/Titch/Mills as my Danger replacement. Sometimes DPP flexibility is bit of a curse.

 

[Herbie66]

Not sure it's too much to worry about on the Titch health front. Not sighted on today's injury list - not even as a "test".

https://www.afl.com.au/matches/injury-list

I'm still flicking between Dusty/Titch/Mills as my Danger replacement. Sometimes DPP flexibility is bit of a curse.

No shortage of options that's for sure , just need to be aware of what might be required in Round 3 & 4 as well though.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

So ahh would I be crazy to think of Tex Walker as a stepping stone out of this Dangerfield conundrum?

B/E of -35 and Sydney, GC and North to come...... anyone care to tell me what’s he’d have to score from here to make $150k in the next three games?

With Freo and Nth as the next few games after that 😳
I like it... Looks risky based on Tex’s form in recent years, however the new Stand rules seem to favour lead up forwards with quick low kicks into F50, so I think that changes the equation dramatically. Tex also showed that his goal kicking boots still work fine, so could be a risk worth taking.
I think it might be worth waiting another week before pulling the trigger though. Sydney this week might be a bit more difficult so worth taking Another look to ensure he will make you the money you are hoping for. If he goes big again, then bring him in on the bubble (I might look to do the same thing)

 

[Bones]

I'm still flicking between Dusty/Titch/Mills as my Danger replacement. Sometimes DPP flexibility is bit of a curse.

Same

Had Danger in the mids so the 'natural' replacement is Mitchell - showed no signs of the interrupted pre-season but still some risk?
Dusty looked awesome - if he's in Brownlow form I'd like to be on him early (and he's fun to own)
Mills - he could be a great pick up for the price

I wish Danger had waited a week to line somebody up - another week's information would be so useful

 

[gutsroy]

Probably centered around the opportunity cost of fielding a(nother) fwd rookie vs. having another premo, which you could estimate at something around 50+ points per game?

50 x 3 = 150 points, which has been the estimated value of a trade for as long as I can remember.

Yeah, I think that is how most will answer.
Thinking that the value of a trade varies throughout the year (the later in the year, the less time to generate points), and wondering if 150 is the bar this early on.
I don't know one way or the other, just interesting to think about 👍

 

[gutsroy]

Don't know if it's just mathematical, guess most are factoring in a 150pt loss, but I think it's more of an opportunity for a correctional trade too.

I've been having a bit of a think about trading him out since you raised the question and a couple of things have got me thinking about keeping.

Firstly, he seems to have groin issues and maybe a 3 week rest will help.

Secondly, Cameron should be due back around the same time that he is.

Thirdly, he becomes a POD and I don't have to get him back again, saving a trade at least.

Fourthly, he might be a loophole option, but I haven't looked at the fixture yet to see if that's viable.

Seems to me to be a good case for holding, although I've currently got 9 rookies on field and would have to field 10 for the next 3 weeks.

Yeah, worth thinking about at least, and in terms of loopholing, he works well rds 3 and 4, not much good this week, although you could look at using him with Grundy and hoping Grundy returns to form.

 

[BomberSam]

Danger to Walsh locked and loaded.

Really tempted to go early on a rookie correction so next week when I likely downgrade Grundy, I can redistribute that cash onto my field immediately rather than keeping it locked up in a war chest for a week or longer.

My first conundrum, do I trade Cahill or McNeil? Leaning towards Cahill because despite good JS it looks like rookies 40k cheaper are going to outscore him. This judgement is based primarily off of one pre-season and one regular season game though, small sample pool. McNeil on the other hand I fully expect to be dropped, but I didn't start a loophole anyway so he could be useful over the next few weeks.

My second conundrum, do I trade in Berry or Jordon? I'm concerned about Matt Crouch's return impacting Berry and Viney's return impacting Jordon. Is anyone willing to guess which one is safer? I'm leaning slightly towards Berry purely because the Crom is a weaker team (or so we think ) and should be an easier lineup to hold a place in.

 

[Shannon]

The big thing Berry has going for him is the defensive side of his game is elite - think he ended up with 8 effective tackles (great for SC scoring, just keeps ticking it over) on the weekend. Crows have made an emphasis on the defensive side of their midfield after being shown up in that side of the game last year so get the feeling that Nicks & co would love him.

 

[gutsroy]

Danger to Walsh locked and loaded.

Really tempted to go early on a rookie correction so next week when I likely downgrade Grundy, I can redistribute that cash onto my field immediately rather than keeping it locked up in a war chest for a week or longer.

My first conundrum, do I trade Cahill or McNeil? Leaning towards Cahill because despite good JS it looks like rookies 40k cheaper are going to outscore him. This judgement is based primarily off of one pre-season and one regular season game though, small sample pool. McNeil on the other hand I fully expect to be dropped, but I didn't start a loophole anyway so he could be useful over the next few weeks.

My second conundrum, do I trade in Berry or Jordon? I'm concerned about Matt Crouch's return impacting Berry and Viney's return impacting Jordon. Is anyone willing to guess which one is safer? I'm leaning slightly towards Berry purely because the Crom is a weaker team (or so we think ) and should be an easier lineup to hold a place in.

Don't think there's a clear timeline around Crouch's return, going to be in the rehab group for the next three weeks or so, I think.

 

[BomberSam]

The big thing Berry has going for him is the defensive side of his game is elite - think he ended up with 8 effective tackles (great for SC scoring, just keeps ticking it over) on the weekend. Crows have made an emphasis on the defensive side of their midfield after being shown up in that side of the game last year so get the feeling that Nicks & co would love him.

Great insight, thanks Shannon!

Don't think there's a clear timeline around Crouch's return, going to be in the rehab group for the next three weeks or so, I think.

Oh, I thought he'd be straight back. That changes things. Looks like Bez might be the way to go. Thanks mate!

 

[wogitalia]

The big thing Berry has going for him is the defensive side of his game is elite - think he ended up with 8 effective tackles (great for SC scoring, just keeps ticking it over) on the weekend. Crows have made an emphasis on the defensive side of their midfield after being shown up in that side of the game last year so get the feeling that Nicks & co would love him.

Berry was great and will need to be awful to go out over the next two weeks with the runs on the board.

He did fade pretty significantly though and I'm not sure whether the 5 first quarter tackles can really be argued as more likely to occur regularly than the 2nd half fade outs!

Role is great though and in a weak rookie group he looks among the best. He loves to tackle, aka effort, and he's getting the positional opportunity to do it. That's about as good a rookie scenario as you can ask for.