Strategy Round 2: Trades

[Rickwood]

I’m in two minds on this one re Danger trade:
Option A: Straight swap to Dusty (Dusty becomes F2 behind Dunkley)
Option B: DPP switch to either Titch or Oliver (and deplete cash reserve)

In the same position and I am taking option B, to Mitchell. Still leaves me with enough to correct rooks if I need and I make 2k on the deal.

I can't see Dustin breaking 110 avg but can see an upside on Mitchell with strength and confidence back in his game. Reckon it will be a close run thing points wise between Oliver and Mitchell at seasons end

YMMV

 

[Rickwood]

I am planning to hold Dangerfield. I see a lot of people chasing last weeks points. Better for me to have another weeks info on all these players and get a better idea if it was a one week peak or a genuine lift in scoring for Mills, Walsh, Mitchell etc.
Not going for outright. Trades are gold.

Trades are gold, but aren't they fun to use!

I have 29 left - watch me enjoy every one of them

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Will see how Grundy goes Thurs night and whether I need to use a trade on him for round 3, before I do anything with Danger. League is only 2 game hit and Danger plays North when he comes back followed by Eagles.

 

[wogitalia]

Trades are gold, but aren't they fun to use!

I have 29 left - watch me enjoy every one of them

If you enjoy every one of them you'll have a hell of a season.

Trades are like 3am hookups... they seem good at the time but most of the time you're regretting it once you've come to your senses!

 

[WindyHillWizard]

In the same position and I am taking option B, to Mitchell. Still leaves me with enough to correct rooks if I need and I make 2k on the deal.

I can't see Dustin breaking 110 avg but can see an upside on Mitchell with strength and confidence back in his game. Reckon it will be a close run thing points wise between Oliver and Mitchell at seasons end

YMMV

Thanks for the advice. Titch certainly looks back to his best from. Could get an early jump as his ownership is low.

 

[Rumbler]

I was really impressed with Williams in the AAMI match, and the price is very appealing. Feel he will be quite popular for those forced to offload Rowell.

I'll be waiting this week to see how he plays. Not trading Rowell just yet. I need to know that the player I bring in will have a really solid chance of being a season keeper, not a stepping stone to just burn another trade.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I'm a little more wary of Fantsasia after that game to be honest.

Only putting up 94 points after kicking 4.4 where he was basically unchecked for the entire game and not facing any sort of effective team defensive structure against probably the worst team in the competition right now probably puts a bit more of a cap on his scoring than I was expecting coming in.

I guess it depends on how you view him, but he probably needs to get his hands on the ball more and tackle a bit more to prop up the scoring from his goalkicking, if he is being picked as a potential premo stepping stone who could average something in the 80's.

Could easily kick 50 playing in such a good side, wouldnt be surprised if he can average 80-90 which is awesome for the price.

 

[BomberArmy]

Wow, interesting seeing almost 10% of teams trading in Boak or Bailey Smith.. point chasing at it's best..

 

[Grundogging]

Could easily kick 50 playing in such a good side, wouldnt be surprised if he can average 80-90 which is awesome for the price.

Where is that 80-90ppg going to come from if he is only kicking ~2 goals a game and not really getting his hands on the ball much or putting on much defensive pressure as a small forward?

I'm not saying that he can't do it, but I was surprised at his score being a little low, given how good he looked in the game. He won't be kicking 3-4 goals every week so he needs to find another avenue or two to score more consistently as mentioned above.

 

[Slacker]

Wow, interesting seeing almost 10% of teams trading in Boak or Bailey Smith.. point chasing at it's best..

No doubt, but gee they did look good and Smith seems like he can run forever.

 

[BomberArmy]

No doubt, but gee they did look good and Smith seems like he can run forever.

I suppose it depends on who you're trading out for them.

 

[Darkie]

Yeah, I think that is how most will answer.
Thinking that the value of a trade varies throughout the year (the later in the year, the less time to generate points), and wondering if 150 is the bar this early on.
I don't know one way or the other, just interesting to think about 👍

In my opinion this is clearly true.

I use 150 as an overall benchmark, but skew it higher early in the year, and lower later on.

I think I borrowed 150 from someone here, most likely @Rowsus, and have found it to work pretty well (I typically run out of trades at roughly the “right” time, have had pretty good ranking outcomes, etc) - so I’ve stuck with it.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Where is that 80-90ppg going to come from if he is only kicking ~2 goals a game and not really getting his hands on the ball much or putting on much defensive pressure as a small forward?

I'm not saying that he can't do it, but I was surprised at his score being a little low, given how good he looked in the game. He won't be kicking 3-4 goals every week so he needs to find another avenue or two to score more consistently as mentioned above.

He went mid 80's in a **** heap like Essendon in 2018 and only kicked 20 in 13 games, I dont see how he can't do it at Port as long as he stays fit, was straight kicking on the weekend off a 140 actually think hes got a pretty decent ceiling myself but time will tell.

 

[The Banker]

I'll be waiting this week to see how he plays. Not trading Rowell just yet. I need to know that the player I bring in will have a really solid chance of being a season keeper, not a stepping stone to just burn another trade.

Don’t think 1 round of data is going to clear that up with Williams. He’s a proven defensive scorer. He’s a proven walking injury. The midfield time gives him the best chance to post career high numbers. The forward time, well that may slightly negate the ceiling of his scoring. I just think you will never be in the clear with a pick like Williams, it’s the value he provides that makes the risk worthwhile, something waiting a week doesn’t really help with, unless of course he picks up an injury tomorrow night.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Don’t think 1 round of data is going to clear that up with Williams. He’s a proven defensive scorer. He’s a proven walking injury. The midfield time gives him the best chance to post career high numbers. The forward time, well that may slightly negate the ceiling of his scoring. I just think you will never be in the clear with a pick like Williams, it’s the value he provides that makes the risk worthwhile, something waiting a week doesn’t really help with, unless of course he picks up an injury tomorrow night.

My issue with Williams is there's probably 10-12 defenders that average higher than him, whats the actual benefit of the selection? Lloyd,Laird,Ryan,Whitfield,Mills,Short,Daniel,Ridley,Stewart,Maynard and May in no particular order I'd back to beat him and you could make a strong case for a couple others.

 

[Manikato1]

I am in a bit of a quandary with my RD 2 trades. If Danger had got two weeks I probably would have kept him but three is a stretch given the points you would lose to a rookie. Don’t trust Dusty at this time of year at all. Heeney, well it’s Heeney so he goes big one day then goes missing and returns to that 90 ish average. Really only leaves Zorko. Cannot remember the last time I had Zorko in my team but I supposed that is not a good reason for him not to be in my team. Maybe just need to get past that bias and keep an open mind.

I could switch him to the mids for Titchell but not sure if that creates future issues for a fwd line with 3 rookies on field and a FD on the bench (Treacey).

Other possible trade is Cahill out for Jordon. I was iffy on Cahill from the start and it was him and Charner that were in and out of the fwd line right up to kick off.

Don’t wish to trade for trading sake but often rd 2 is correction time and you need to be ready to maximise your correction trades.

Much mulling to be done

 

[whydoihavetoo]

Danger going for 3 weeks is causing me some grief in terms of what to do:

Like for like and go dusty.

Go to Mitchel who will average more than dusty but leave me with only 1 premo forward.

Keep him and have a POD in 3 weeks. Save a trade

Honestly dont even have a gut feel for what is better at the moment

 

[Shaunpro1]

Got Bruhn,Brockman and Bergman who all looked pretty average, jumping on Jordon and Berry is fairly tempting but its probably better to wait a week.

 

[The Banker]

My issue with Williams is there's probably 10-12 defenders that average higher than him, whats the actual benefit of the selection? Lloyd,Laird,Ryan,Whitfield,Mills,Short,Daniel,Ridley,Stewart,Maynard and May in no particular order I'd back to beat him and you could make a strong case for a couple others.

All of those guys are priced significantly higher than him. For mine, it’s a good price to pay for an unknown ceiling. Hard to see him going backwards with significant mid time. Where he sits in amongst all those guys, time will tell, but I think he could outrank the majority in points per dollar.

 

[Gruffles]

Thinking Gawn to S Martin & Lazarro to Heeney
See anything wrong with this? Appreciate any comments.

I would fix must have rookies this week, ie Flynn, Gulden, Rowe ect if you don't have.
Injury trades next like Danger and Rowell, gives you a chance to see your premos in action and you can make a better decision next week.

Normally you would want a second week to view the rookies but when making a huge call like chopping Gawn/Grundy I think that's a decision that requires the extra weeks worth of information.

Rucks are going to drop, the question is by how much, I reckon if Gawn goes sub 110 this week you ditch him, 115-120 and it's probably a harder call depending on the need areas of the rest of your team.

Need to see how rucks adapt.