Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Broar]

Hey Rowsus

What are you thoughts on trading in Dusty? (I have no plans at this stage to do that)

Generally speaking his SC average is at 100 to 105. Now he's a very popular trade in at them moment.

Yes he looked superb but given he scored 158 and with his wild scoring variations surely it makes more sense to put him off for a while (ideally a price drop)

Feels like a case of chasing last weeks points to me but lets say over the next month he keeps scoring 120+, would you hold off and wait for the drop or do you bite the bullet and get him in?

 

[gutsroy]

Hi gutsroy,
nice work, as usual, and I think your summation is pretty close to the mark. I have been running a similar exercise through my head, since the incident occured. I actually came up with a 3 week scenario being around the 150 mark, which is in the ballpark of your bottom Mitchell figure. Let's split the difference, and call it 140.
Now put the whole thing aside, and imagine this scenario.
If VS (the people who run SC) offered you 140 points to sacrifice one of your trades this week, would you take it?
The simple answer is, you'd be crazy to take it! It's not full value for an early trade, and it's a lost opportunity that potentially reaps a lot more than 140 points, at some future point in the season.
The counter argument to this is two fold.
If you are someone who is cautious with your trades, and don't usually get yourself down to 2 left by Round 18 or 19, you can probably afford throw a trade at this situation. Of course, that statement is counter-intuitive, because the really cautious traders are probably a good chance to hold Dangerfield anyway.
Secondly, the risk of holding him has a double jeopardy attached. If you hold him through these 3 weeks, and injury/suspension causes him to miss another 2 or 3 weeks or more, you have been further anchored. Yes, you can trade him at this second occurence, but undoubtedly those that trade him now would hold a big advantage over you. Dangerfield has only missed 6 games in the past 10 seasons, prior to these 3 games, so the odds are on your side, that he gets through this season with 18 or 19 games. Against that, he's pretty much 31 now, so is more open to niggles and problems. To my mind, if you hold him, anymore than 2 more missed games between Rounds 5 and 23, and you've lost on the decision.
It's this 2nd part that is weighing on me most heavily, in my hold or trade thinking.
Two weeks, or four weeks, were easy decisions in my mind. Three weeks feels damned if you do, damned if you don't.

This sums it up really well, and even in terms of potential to miss - on the one hand, he’s getting older, they have flagged resting players, the groin issue may flare up / on the other, if he comes back rd 5 and gets a bye rest, maybe he would be less in need of an additional week. It’s all equivocal.
The overall return seems likely meagre but maybe just enough.

 

[Leroy]

Hi Rowsus,
With the Dangerfield suspension (and because I am in a very boring townhall), I tried to do a rough exercise to think about the point gain vs the cost of the trade.

Just did some simple scenarios assuming Dangerfield can potentially be viable for loophooling VC/C and / or rookie scores rd 3, 4, but not rd 2 (I understand Dow / Henry / Grundy may be possible in rd 2, but neglected this for the purposes of the exercise).

It depends on assumptions on replacement premo vs replacement rookie and / or potential VC loop activation bonus, so I looked at a couple of scenarios and subscenarios. They're all below, various grades of optimistic and pessimistic outcomes on both fronts.

But the outcome for me is a likely point gain somewhere around the 110 - 130 mark (under my assumptions, assuming methodology OK)

Given the value of a trade varies and this one has a more limited term over which you can benefit (three weeks), how does it stack up against conserving the trade? People tend to be arguing that because you can do it without mucking up your upgrade cadence, it is a must trade, just thought it would be interesting to actually think it through.

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Great analysis @gutsroy.

Every team is setup differently, so everyone gets a different set of numbers. I've already got a VC loop, so that reduces that numeric advantage.

My forward bench scored 30s in R1, so swap Danger to the mids where Sam Berry comes on field for him. In the trade Danger case I can loop Berry and A Scott; if I keep him I have to take both of their scores. So I think that makes the rookie more like a 55 prospect, as I'm effectively getting the worst of those two players each week instead of a premium.

If I have Mitchell at say 115, that's 180 points over 3 weeks.

But there's another aspect as well: I had Danger in the 105-110 range at the start of the year and Mitchell in the 105-115 range, because of the interrupted pre-season. But if I now re-rate Mitchell as a 110-115 prospect because he looked more than ok, then I'm also getting an upgrade on my spent capital.

So for me that tilts it towards trade.

 

[jaca]

Hi mate.

I've managed to start my season with very little cash spare. I've no need to trade, and won't do until next week (at the earliest).

Should I focus my attention on trading myself into a bit of early cash e.g. a Powell type out into Jordon, or just take it as it comes knowing that a trade opportunity/necessity will present itself?

 

[wogitalia]

Hi mate.

I've managed to start my season with very little cash spare. I've no need to trade, and won't do until next week (at the earliest).

Should I focus my attention on trading myself into a bit of early cash e.g. a Powell type out into Jordon, or just take it as it comes knowing that a trade opportunity/necessity will present itself?

Put the money where the return is best. There's no interest in this game, having your money in the bank is money that is not producing points or additional cash.

Your trades next week should be focused on making sure you've got the best cash cows, if you've already got that then you can consider if a premium just doesn't look up to it or if there is a must have breakout player.

Remember to value a trade though, If Powell is going to make 150k and Jordon is going to make 175k it's highly unlikely that trade is actually worth doing, generally you're looking to get out of a rookie that has already bombed out of the team and into one that hasn't!

The other thing to consider is your first upgrade probably isn't happening until round 5 or 6, realistically your dream is no trades prior to that, if you can manage that you're in a great position. Obviously sometimes a must have rookie comes along and you need to move early but if you can get to round 6 with all your trades and all your cash working for you, you're going to be in a great spot.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus

What are you thoughts on trading in Dusty? (I have no plans at this stage to do that)

Generally speaking his SC average is at 100 to 105. Now he's a very popular trade in at them moment.

Yes he looked superb but given he scored 158 and with his wild scoring variations surely it makes more sense to put him off for a while (ideally a price drop)

Feels like a case of chasing last weeks points to me but lets say over the next month he keeps scoring 120+, would you hold off and wait for the drop or do you bite the bullet and get him in?

Hey Broar,
I think I agree with most of your points. I see Dusty as a 100-105 player, and I'm not going to let one good score sway me from that opinion.
I think there is 3 main factors that have people eyeing him off.
There are not many "safe" Fwd Prems.
They have just lost the player they had as the main building block in their Fwd line.
Players that have just posted a big score look sexier, and seduce people into thinking they'll keep doing exactly that.
Unfortunately the "sexier" thinking is very flawed, and they know it, but it just builds their FOMO.
Bottom line, if you didn't all but have Dusty in your Fwd line in Rnd 1, if you didn't have him there and took him out last minute, then I'd be looking elsewhere for your Danger replacement. Probably in the Mid or Def line. As you say, it is very much chasing last weeks points. If he had scored an even 100 he'd be half as popular as he is right now.
If Dusty scores 120's for the next month, his price goes up to $575,000. You'd need him to score 3 x 86's in his next 3 games, just to get him back to his starting price. He'd still be averaging 111+ at that stage, so if you believed he was heading back to 105ish, you definitely wouldn't trade him in. If you really think you want him at some stage, then hope he doesn't score that month of 120's, because if he does, he's pretty much cooked, for most of us that think he's a 105 player!!!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi mate.

I've managed to start my season with very little cash spare. I've no need to trade, and won't do until next week (at the earliest).

Should I focus my attention on trading myself into a bit of early cash e.g. a Powell type out into Jordon, or just take it as it comes knowing that a trade opportunity/necessity will present itself?

Hi jaca,
I hope things are going well on the baby front.
Having some cash in the bank is nice, and it is useful, but it is completely secondary. Don't ever force a trade to get some cash, unless you need it in the current week or the week after, for an upgrade. Making what you believe to be the right choice is far more important, than thinking "If I settle for him, I also get a little cash on the deal". Trades where you settle for players are for later in the season, if you are struggling to complete your team.
Just take it as it comes. If swapping a Powell to Jordon to get some cash was a good idea, it should have been done before last weeks lock out.
Enjoy being in a position where you aren't being forced to trade!!!

 

[Torress]

Hi Rowsus, I've so far avoided the need to trade. Only rookie I feel that should be traded in is Jordan- will wait a week there, Bergman and McNeil on notice.

My question is I do not have Ziebel. One of my last minute decisions was putting Tom Phillips in for him as I had the cash and thought Phillips could be a keeper. I understand it's one game, Ziebel has the more lucrative role though and my thoughts are if I've made a mistake, I should admit it, fix it and move on. Ziebel is in many teams and appears an obvious value pick and is a good chance of out scoring Phillips. What are your thoughts on Tom Phillips? I'm ranked 1500 overall

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, I've so far avoided the need to trade. Only rookie I feel that should be traded in is Jordan- will wait a week there, Bergman and McNeil on notice.

My question is I do not have Ziebel. One of my last minute decisions was putting Tom Phillips in for him as I had the cash and thought Phillips could be a keeper. I understand it's one game, Ziebel has the more lucrative role though and my thoughts are if I've made a mistake, I should admit it, fix it and move on. Ziebel is in many teams and appears an obvious value pick and is a good chance of out scoring Phillips. What are your thoughts on Tom Phillips? I'm ranked 1500 overall

Hi Torress,
I say stick to your guns.
Phillips is way more likely to be a successful Keeper than Ziebell. Ziebell only has 2 seasons out of his 12 that you'd call an ok F6 season. On top of that he has averaged missing 3 games in the past 4 seasons, and 3 games in the past 9 seasons. If he gave you a 19/96 season that would be his highest season average ever. That PIT60's down to a 91 season. While that's great at his price, it's not Keeper level. In contrast, Phillips still has the potential to have a break out. He has "only" played 90 games, which puts him at the back end of the break out window.
The other problem is, you would be burning 2 trades to make let's say $200k. I say 2 trades because you have to trade Ziebell out again, to realise that profit. If you can do something absolutely positive, and immediate with the loose change Phillips to Ziebell gives you, you might consider it, but it would want to be getting you to a Prem or Keeper. Otherwise, I think you just accept you might have missed Ziebell, unless another route opens for you to get to him, like a suspension, or LTI.

 

[Bermi]

Hi Rowsus,

is trading out McNeil to Jordon worth it?
McNeil MAYBE not play another game, and Jordon makes money.
I pretty much have the other good CCs.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rows,

I believe you started with the same Rucks as me. Quick question. Do you plan to start with Flynn this week and bench Martin who is up against Nic Nat?

 

[McLovin]

Hey Rows,

I believe you started with the same Rucks as me. Quick question. Do you plan to start with Flynn this week and bench Martin who is up against Nic Nat?

It's worth considering. Even since becoming a better tap ruck Stef's never been able to handle rucks like Nic Nat and Ryder because he can't stop them from jumping over him.

 

[Torress]

Hi Torress,
I say stick to your guns.
Phillips is way more likely to be a successful Keeper than Ziebell. Ziebell only has 2 seasons out of his 12 that you'd call an ok F6 season. On top of that he has averaged missing 3 games in the past 4 seasons, and 3 games in the past 9 seasons. If he gave you a 19/96 season that would be his highest season average ever. That PIT60's down to a 91 season. While that's great at his price, it's not Keeper level. In contrast, Phillips still has the potential to have a break out. He has "only" played 90 games, which puts him at the back end of the break out window.
The other problem is, you would be burning 2 trades to make let's say $200k. I say 2 trades because you have to trade Ziebell out again, to realise that profit. If you can do something absolutely positive, and immediate with the loose change Phillips to Ziebell gives you, you might consider it, but it would want to be getting you to a Prem or Keeper. Otherwise, I think you just accept you might have missed Ziebell, unless another route opens for you to get to him, like a suspension, or LTI.

Thank you so much for the detailed response. I do not have an obvious upgrade to make with the spare change from dropping Phillips to Ziebel. And I do not have any LTI's at this stage.
It's funny once the season starts, sometimes you want to believe a trade is needed to make the team better. You have helped me, Ziebel is likely to miss games which is something I to be honest glossed over, and a pit60 might be considered generous with our rookie bench spots too.
And I don't believe Ziebel will really hurt not having.
Thanks mate

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

is trading out McNeil to Jordon worth it?
McNeil MAYBE not play another game, and Jordon makes money.
I pretty much have the other good CCs.

Hi Bermi,
On one games info, Jordon looks like being a solid Rookie, and one we should try to have.
If you need to do it this week, McNeil looks the obvious path. If you can afford to wait a week, and find out more about which Rookie is the best trade out option, then that is the better option.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rows,

I believe you started with the same Rucks as me. Quick question. Do you plan to start with Flynn this week and bench Martin who is up against Nic Nat?

Hey Slams,
Yes.

 

[TommyGobbler]

Hey Broar,
I think I agree with most of your points. I see Dusty as a 100-105 player, and I'm not going to let one good score sway me from that opinion.
I think there is 3 main factors that have people eyeing him off.
There are not many "safe" Fwd Prems.
They have just lost the player they had as the main building block in their Fwd line.
Players that have just posted a big score look sexier, and seduce people into thinking they'll keep doing exactly that.
Unfortunately the "sexier" thinking is very flawed, and they know it, but it just builds their FOMO.
Bottom line, if you didn't all but have Dusty in your Fwd line in Rnd 1, if you didn't have him there and took him out last minute, then I'd be looking elsewhere for your Danger replacement. Probably in the Mid or Def line. As you say, it is very much chasing last weeks points. If he had scored an even 100 he'd be half as popular as he is right now.
If Dusty scores 120's for the next month, his price goes up to $575,000. You'd need him to score 3 x 86's in his next 3 games, just to get him back to his starting price. He'd still be averaging 111+ at that stage, so if you believed he was heading back to 105ish, you definitely wouldn't trade him in. If you really think you want him at some stage, then hope he doesn't score that month of 120's, because if he does, he's pretty much cooked, for most of us that think he's a 105 player!!!

Hi Rowsus,

On the topic of Dusty I'm also wondering how much weight you put on ownership percentage when trading a player in.

Eg. Dusty currently owned by 51% of teams. Therefore, you set to gain more if you avoid Dusty and he goes poorly. The POD you choose instead also needs to outperform Dusty, but I'm assuming you'd be a better chance to win overall in the 'Dusty scores poorly' scenario?

And to your point above re: Dusty already scoring a 158 and pegging him as a 105 player (my estimate preseason was 100-103.) Does that mean Callum Mills is a poor replacement option given he's just scored 154 himself? (I had Mills pegged at 107-112 potential but thought there was risk with the unknown of his mid role). If we say Mills will average 107 for the season, that means he will average 104.7 from this point on, which still seems like a reasonable outcome. Also to my original point, Mills is only owned by 2.8%.

Cheers

 

[Ironhawk]

Hi Rowsus,

On the topic of Dusty I'm also wondering how much weight you put on ownership percentage when trading a player in.

Eg. Dusty currently owned by 51% of teams. Therefore, you set to gain more if you avoid Dusty and he goes poorly. The POD you choose instead also needs to outperform Dusty, but I'm assuming you'd be a better chance to win overall in the 'Dusty scores poorly' scenario?

And to your point above re: Dusty already scoring a 158 and pegging him as a 105 player (my estimate preseason was 100-103.) Does that mean Callum Mills is a poor replacement option given he's just scored 154 himself? (I had Mills pegged at 107-112 potential but thought there was risk with the unknown of his mid role). If we say Mills will average 107 for the season, that means he will average 104.7 from this point on, which still seems like a reasonable outcome. Also to my original point, Mills is only owned by 2.8%.

Cheers

Dusty is not owned by 51% of teams, not sure if this influences things at all:

 

[zeus123]

Hey there Rowsus, absolutely love your work mate and a big thank you from me!

This may be a different question you usually would receive but I am very keen to what your thoughts are on Melbourne as a whole this year and there players? Are there any that have surprised you this year even though its been 2 rounds of AFL. For myself Tom Mcdonald has been impressing me alot. Thanks champ.

 

[Pieman17]

Hey Rowsus, hope you’re well.

I’ve got Cripps in my team currently underperforming and a bit torn on what to do.

To be honest I didn’t really want Cripps, but had a bit of FOMO of the ‘old’ Cripps coming back and averaging 115 at 520k.

A few options I’m considering is,

1. Cripps to Tex - Tex has a huge negative break even and a decent next few games so could make me some good cash while still scoring decently (80-90ish).

2. Cripps to Dusty - Get to bring in a guarantee in Dusty, will be a top forward and looks in great form.

3. Hold Cripps - Hope he can muster a min 103 average, with scores of 82 and 85 so far meaning I would get a 104.8 average from here making it not really worth trading. There question is if he can do that.

Cheers, Pieman17

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rows,

It looks like I have started ok but still have a couple of concerns in Taranto & Phillips.
Tyson to Jordon will be a lock this week but not sure if I should use the second trade.
Of course it depends on the rookies. I reckon Bergman and/or Rowe could get the chop.
Phillips & Taranto were always risky picks. Phillips I think was a mistake so do I hold or correct now.
Was looking at three options

A) Phillips to Tex which would bank me $300k after the Tyson to Jordon trade.
I understand that Tex is also a risk and i am chasing points but his upcoming run of fixtures along with his pending rather large price gain is definitely enticing.

B) Hold the second trade and bank $200k and wait

c) Phillips to a Heeney or Butters & bank around $140k