Strategy Round 3: Trades

[Montyjnr]

I too was lucky to start with Jordon and I see what you're saying, perhaps my reasoning was not too clear.

Not sure about others who picked Caldwell but I picked him with the intent on keeping him as a season long keeper F6 (due to his role and price). Ideally I am looking for a "like for like" replacement F6 at the price. Atkins seems to fit that mould at this point in time.

Tex needs to score at a high level to be a cash cow and why is he guaranteed to score well this week playing GC? don't we use history as an indicator of a player who's been in the system for a while and what we can expect from him? One poor score will stunt his cash generation.... sure he does have a good run coming up including this a huge -ve be for this week but if he pulls a 60ish score what are future owners going to do? ride him out for a few weeks to make that magical 150k (which'll mean he needs a huge score to actually get there) or bite the bullet and run which'll mean a burnt trade for not much reward.

I see pro's and con's for each side of the story but the more I think about it i'm willing to let this one go through to the keeper...

Yeah fair enough, I can certainly see where you're coming from.

Tex would be a Daniher replacement for me, so I am viewing him as a cash cow correction rather than a replacement for a midprice Top 6 hopeful.

 

[Misky]

Yeah fair enough, I can certainly see where you're coming from.

Tex would be a Daniher replacement for me, so I am viewing him as a cash cow correction rather than a replacement for a midprice Top 6 hopeful.

Ok makes sense, if you are looking for a Daniher replacement/cash cow then i think Tex is the best option - agree, all i'm saying is that I believe it comes with risks.... Or alternatively can go down to a rookie for even "greater" cash gen assuming you are missing one of the "must have" rookies?

 

[The Saltshaker]

Neale, Danger, Cripps, Rowell, and now Fyfe - already turned Rowell, Danger to Mills & Dusty.

Got 56k, should i go Neale + Cripps to Oliver and Titch?

Or Dow to Warner. + Cripps to Titch?

I feel like Neale trade is a must but already burnt 2. My reasoning being if carrying niggle not match fit + tags. Or if he out inj after price drop im screwed. I also got him for a reason, he says he gonna be better this year, done a lot of running and hb. 2 minds its annoying me but clearly my team needs correction.

The other issue is i had Dow 53sc, Rowe 19, Scott 23 = were on field last week. Hence Warner need.

Lloyd, Laird, Short, Daniel, Mills, Clarke, (Highmore Kosi)
Neale*, Macrae, Fyfe, Cripps*, Tarranto, Powell, Jordan, Gulden (berry, sharp, brockman)
Grundy, Flynn, (meek)
Dusty, Dunks, Ziebell, Dow, Rowe, Scott (Bergman, Jones)

Will bring Highmore on and Clarke to mid for Fyfe

Any thoughts on this would be welcomed👍👍👍

 

[Montyjnr]

Ok makes sense, if you are looking for a Daniher replacement/cash cow then i think Tex is the best option - agree, all i'm saying is that I believe it comes with risks.... Or alternatively can go down to a rookie for even "greater" cash gen assuming you are missing one of the "must have" rookies?

I have all the “must have” rookies.

It’s just Impey v Tex I’m stuck on.

Tex probably just needs 1 more big score against GC or NM to be a success, whereas i need more consistency from Impey (in a better role mind you).

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Found a way to get Kosi off from D6, Cripps > Ridley via Sharp.
Have all the rookies I need, don't think I missed any this week.

Ridley Laird Stewart Daniel Short Highmore (Kosi/Cox)
Macrae Zerrett Jelly Taranto Gulden Jordon Powell Berry (Brockman/Sharp/Fyfe)
GG (Flynn)
Dunks Dusty Ziebell Daniher Campbell Warner (Rowe/Scott)

Looks good?

 

[BomberSam]

Are you missing any cash cows?

Berry, Impey and LMac the only ones I might be missing but I don't know that any of them are must-haves.

 

[<actus]

Is Berry a must have? Doesn't seem to be able to play out a full match. Either mcneil or Scott would be the ones to go.

This is one I’m sweating on a bit.

Tackles well. Scores pretty well. Plenty of opportunities at the crows. But I have all the other good rookies I think:

Campbell
Warner
Gulden
Powell
Jordan
Kosi
Highmore
Rowe
Bergman
Flynn
Meek
Ziebell
and gettin Impey
McNeill who might come good
Scott who could be a donut

Wondering if I really need Berry ...

 

[BomberSam]

I'm in the exact same predicament, was all in on Tex but now cooling off, not 100% sure on impey either, so might just go Atkins for a cheap keeper F6. Problem with Tex is that you use 1 trade to bring him in and then another to take him out later on (unless people think he's a keeper all of a sudden?) Hopefully that extra trade will be useful later on in the season...

We're in exactly the same boat. I'm also not keen on spending two trades on Tex, one in, one out. He is certainly not a keeper. I too have considered Atkins but I don't feel entirely comfortable with that pick either. Beggars can't be choosers though, right?

 

[Herbie66]

Post 525 has the bryce details for all rookies if that helps

Thanks for that.

Happy reading on Warner.

Doesn't look convincing for Walker at all though based on his projections.

Interesting though looking at the other players , and just highlights what I was talking about yesterday no way in hell bench players like Koschitzke , Sharp , McNeil , Hunter & Fullarton are getting near making $ 150k.

Be surprised if Scott does as well.

Well and good having all these onfield rookies scoring but , but will be tough getting enough $$$ from downgrades.

I guess people view things differently.

After this round I would have used 3 trades.

Need at least 9 onfield upgrades so allowing 18 perfect downgrade trades that's my 30 trades already.

Obviously it will be all about if and when the next batch of rookies appear and they look viable to do a downgrade.

Ideally I would like to do :-

Round 7 - 2 down
Round 8 - 1 down/1 up
Round 9 - 1 down/1 up
Round 10 - 2 down
Round 11 - 1 down/1 up

Then try and compete 6 upgrades during the Byes.

If my bench rookies don't improve immensely I doubt that will happen.

Better get the thinking caps on

Hopefully the closer the onfield rookies get to a $ 250-300k profit each , the better it is.

 

[<actus]

Any thoughts on Andrew Brayshaw’s future as a premium scorer?

My thoughts are he is as i will be bringing him in this week..i like his draw over the next 6 weeks so it is kind of now or never i think

Your other consideration is if you think considering my opinion on picking SC mids is a good idea as i picked Gaff in the first place! 🤪😬🤣

Bright, like really bright.

I’m strongly considering Tom Phillips to Brayshaw as a bit of a luxury trade.

I think I remember that time-on-ground has been an issue for Brayshaw in the past, and maybe not so much now ... not sure if the stats bear this out.

Sounds like he got attention from De Boer on the weekend and still scored well which is a good sign - although GWS were so rubbish not sure what we can take from the game.

 

[TeeButOne]

Option A: Bring in Powell, pushes Highmore off the field to D7 (L. Young @ D6), leaves Rowe onfield at F6
Option B: Bring in Impey, leaves Highmore onfield at D6, pushes Rowe off the field to F7 (Warner @ F6)

Would prefer Powell over Impey, but means a potential point sacrifice over the coming weeks. Thoughts?

 

[Shannon]

Atm I've got rowe, scott and henry as probable dud rookies with few options ro switch them too this weekend, henry will become frank the tank from geelong next week.
I also have taranto as an issue, never reliased GWS were such a basket case. Jordon clarke is also a worry, expected him to score higher.
View attachment 27937

This confuses me - he is averaging 73.5 over 2 rounds & cost just 241K, BE this week of -5.

His scoring is perfectly acceptable for the cash outlay for mine.

Henry is your big issue, must offload him this week.

 

[Crowls]

I think you can carry Jones. Looked good against Hawks. After 3 rounds that 5 is gone never to worry his price increases again. @whydoihavetoo

I was at the Hawks game and two things struck me about Jones. He knows how to run patterns and get in a good position. he needs to ignore Hooker giving him direction. Hooker always looks lost up forward and Harry you can see knows what to do. If he kicks straight will be a 60 avg player. I want hooker back to defence and let kids run the forwards

 

[donnybuang]

I was at the Hawks game and two things struck me about Jones. He knows how to run patterns and get in a good position. he needs to ignore Hooker giving him direction. Hooker always looks lost up forward and Harry you can see knows what to do. If he kicks straight will be a 60 avg player. I want hooker back to defence and let kids run the forwards

Jones should be fine. 4 behinds in round 1 IIRC.

 

[Crowls]

Not clear on my trading strategy this week. Original plan was to hang tough this year. 2w in and it already painful.
Danger on bench for another two weeks but is loophole. Used it last week for Grundy. Probably cost me a couple of points as C would have been Oliver or Macrae...

Have 150k ITB
Doing Jones to Jordon this week. Gives me most of the rookies except meek ( Hunter R3) will trade to Treacy Rd5.

Next step is correction trades; Two under consideration Phillips and Cripps. Phillips was F6/7 plan with upside and think it is still viable. Would be nice to have Dunks/Martin etc but Martin was always upgrade option due to his history. Dunks I saw risk of Dogs sharing points. Cripps looks like he is not right and then I heard on either this site or another that he is playing with injections most weeks. No great reason to move him on money wise but if he fails to play out a game and takes a money hit and he appears to have little upside benefit I feel I am better now to bite the bullet.

Option 1 Cripps>Dunkley at M5 with move into Forwards later for F1/2 keeper
Option 2 Cripps>Brayshaw who I see as a top 10 Mid in 2021. At one stage I had him in my team instead of Cripps pre season.
Option 3 No trade - risk is Cripps does not recover and ends year at 90-95 avg at best and possibly misses games as well.
Option 4 Cripps/Daniher>Impey for cash generation. But since I can go straight to premo do I need to worry about cash gen.

Def Laird, Ridley, Stewart, Daniel, Doc, Clark - Highmore, Kosi
Mid Oliver, Macrae, Zerrett, Walsh, Cripps, Gulden, Powell, Jordon - Berry, Sharp, Brockman
Ruc Grundy, Flynn - Hunter
Fwd Danger, Phillips, Ziebell, Daniher, Campbell, Warner - Rowe, Scott
Figure Sharp will end up slow burn and loophole option in def eventually.

 

[AngryAnt]

Not clear on my trading strategy this week. Original plan was to hang tough this year. 2w in and it already painful.
Danger on bench for another two weeks but is loophole. Used it last week for Grundy. Probably cost me a couple of points as C would have been Oliver or Macrae...

Have 150k ITB
Doing Jones to Jordon this week. Gives me most of the rookies except meek ( Hunter R3) will trade to Treacy Rd5.

Next step is correction trades; Two under consideration Phillips and Cripps. Phillips was F6/7 plan with upside and think it is still viable. Would be nice to have Dunks/Martin etc but Martin was always upgrade option due to his history. Dunks I saw risk of Dogs sharing points. Cripps looks like he is not right and then I heard on either this site or another that he is playing with injections most weeks. No great reason to move him on money wise but if he fails to play out a game and takes a money hit and he appears to have little upside benefit I feel I am better now to bite the bullet.

Option 1 Cripps>Dunkley at M5 with move into Forwards later for F1/2 keeper
Option 2 Cripps>Brayshaw who I see as a top 10 Mid in 2021. At one stage I had him in my team instead of Cripps pre season.
Option 3 No trade - risk is Cripps does not recover and ends year at 90-95 avg at best and possibly misses games as well.
Option 4 Cripps/Daniher>Impey for cash generation. But since I can go straight to premo do I need to worry about cash gen.

Def Laird, Ridley, Stewart, Daniel, Doc, Clark - Highmore, Kosi
Mid Oliver, Macrae, Zerrett, Walsh, Cripps, Gulden, Powell, Jordon - Berry, Sharp, Brockman
Ruc Grundy, Flynn - Hunter
Fwd Danger, Phillips, Ziebell, Daniher, Campbell, Warner - Rowe, Scott
Figure Sharp will end up slow burn and loophole option in def eventually.

Option 1 I reckon, Dunkley looking like top 2 or 3 forward for the season. I think Cripps needs to be traded out, is playing injured.

 

[Ormos]

Been going back and forth, on do i go 2 trades this week or just stick with the 1 correction. I have already had to make 2 with rowell and harmes, but happy with all teh rookies.

Caldwell > Tex/impey (Leaning TEX as think he have a better $ Boost and output)

Then this is my other thought -
Phillips > Bowes in Def or Dunkley Fwd. I just dont think phillips is going to end up keeper (Round 1 was good, Rnd 2 was bad)

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

If he averages 100 from here he still wont get to $500k by his bye (it'll be something close to $490k). He will need some more huge games to get there quickly.

If he averages 100 he doesn't need to be traded out - he's a keeper.

Last 5 full seasons (2015-19) key position leader of coleman after round 2:

2019: J Cameron, 7 goals, won coleman, averaged 93 SC
2018: Franklin, 12 goals, 4th in coleman, averaged 100 SC
2017: JJK, 11 goals, 2nd in coleman, averaged 94 SC
2016: JJK, 9 goals, won coleman, averaged 98 SC
2015: JJK, 12 goals, won coleman, averaged 94 SC.

Suggests Walker is a 60% chance of winning the coleman, and likely to finish with a SC of around 95 (or average 90 for the remaining 20 games.

He's only 30, he's had the monkey on his back since '17 grand final, and he's now finally freed up to lead, mark, kick goals under the new rules.

 

[sethlad]

Tex looks in ripping nick but he did get 4 frees within 20 metres of goal last game.
Not sure that will be happening regularly, hasn't been a huge tackler over the journey

 

[McLovin]

If he averages 100 he doesn't need to be traded out - he's a keeper.

Last 5 full seasons (2015-19) key position leader of coleman after round 2:

2019: J Cameron, 7 goals, won coleman, averaged 93 SC
2018: Franklin, 12 goals, 4th in coleman, averaged 100 SC
2017: JJK, 11 goals, 2nd in coleman, averaged 94 SC
2016: JJK, 9 goals, won coleman, averaged 98 SC
2015: JJK, 12 goals, won coleman, averaged 94 SC.

Suggests Walker is a 60% chance of winning the coleman, and likely to finish with a SC of around 95 (or average 90 for the remaining 20 games.

He's only 30, he's had the monkey on his back since '17 grand final, and he's now finally freed up to lead, mark, kick goals under the new rules.

Hold your horses there, that's a HUGE call based on a grand total of 2 games.