Strategy Round 3: Trades

[Leroy]

Yep hence why I am getting Warner instead , just waiting for Thursday & Friday teams to decide on who to actually trade out.

I've had another look at my trades and am thinking I wait on teams dropping as well.
Even though Hunter -> Jordon opens up some options structurally, if Scott or Sharp get dropped it seems silly to turf a playing rookie over a non-playing one as a correction trade.
Unless I thought those other two were sufficiently better scorers in the long term, which is hard to argue after scores in the 20s.

 

[TommyGobbler]

If Tex Walker scores 70 for the next 5 weeks he will reach a peak price of $370k after R7. Feels like a trap.

 

[froffershanners]

Cerra is looking good.

I am seriously considering Cripps to Cerra this week.

Having no money in the bank means I feel that Cerra is the only decent option I have.

Although I'm not sure by how many points he will outscore Cripps from here.

For it to be worthwhile from now I'd have to see Cerra beating Cripps season average by 10 taking into account the two scores already done.

Not sure this could happen. Any thoughts on this as a trade?

 

[Socrates2]

I am seriously considering Cripps to Cerra this week.

Having no money in the bank means I feel that Cerra is the only decent option I have.

Although I'm not sure by how many points he will outscore Cripps from here.

For it to be worthwhile from now I'd have to see Cerra beating Cripps season average by 10 taking into account the two scores already done.

Not sure this could happen. Any thoughts on this as a trade?

Well he's cemented into the midfield, doesn't ever get tagged, has an easy fixture coming up, is the right age to break out.
I swapped for Rowell last week and I'm very happy.
Will he be a top 8 mid from here? Probably not but he is reliable .

 

[Yasi]

Yep. I have tried out lots of options. My obvious trades tend to be my better trades. Keeping Cripps! He has copped so much criticism this week that he should be very motivated. Berry and Brockman for Fullarton and Scott. Simple!

I’m keeping Cripps also. Not expecting him to lose cash too quickly so another week or two to decide shouldn’t hurt.

Neale on the other hand. Sideways to Dunkley for an immediate $160 K gain for a probable top 6 FWD seems worth the trade ...

 

[NT.Thunder]

If Cripps is playing injured surely he goes. The type of player Cripps is tells me he needs a lot of Contested ball and high possession to score well this season, can't see it short term.

 

[Montyjnr]

If Tex Walker scores 70 for the next 5 weeks he will reach a peak price of $370k after R7. Feels like a trap.

If he scores 60 for the next 2 weeks he will reach a peak price of $397k after R4 though

 

[Leroy]

If Tex Walker scores 70 for the next 5 weeks he will reach a peak price of $370k after R7. Feels like a trap.

All the predictions and calculations of BE seem to miss this. After 3 weeks, a player's price will trend towards their most recent scoring - if they happen to be priced at that already then their price hardly moves.

So in the next two weeks Tex might shoot up to between $350 and $400k. But if he doesn't post another massive score in the next 3 and averages anything less than 80, he won't go any higher and basically treads water. You've then burned a trade to bring in a player for at best $100k profit who may average between 70 and 80 for the rest of the year.

Now if you think he'll pull out a 140 every few weeks for the rest of the season and then average 100, just hit trade already

 

[Leroy]

If he scores 60 for the next 2 weeks he will reach a peak price of $397k after R4 though

Which is less than $100k profit and you've used a trade to get it.
He's also then facing a BE of around 100 and will lose money unless you trade him out at that point.
So two trades in three weeks to make $100k? Yikes.

If you're trading him in, you need him to score 120+ at least once in the next few weeks. I'm sure North will be obliging but it's a lot to bank on.

 

[Montyjnr]

Which is less than $100k profit and you've used a trade to get it.
He's also then facing a BE of around 100 and will lose money unless you trade him out at that point.
So two trades in three weeks to make $100k? Yikes.

If you're trading him in, you need him to score 120+ at least once in the next few weeks. I'm sure North will be obliging but it's a lot to bank on.

How many basement price rookies have you traded in and then cashed out at a peak price of 240-250k for 100k profit over the years?
Plenty I'm sure.

It is a common scenario, but also the worst case scenario with Tex.

 

[Wheedus]

To Imp or not to Imp. That is the question for me.

As I've mentioned previously, I made a dumb error through round 1 swapping Impey to Saunders (to take Rowe's score) when I should have used Jones instead. Like all things SC, hindsight is wonderful but that move cost me exactly 100 points in round 2 with Scott on the ground giving me a 23 v Impey's 123.

It feels like a knee jerk trading him back in but with a BE -62, avg of 93.5 and a solid role, he's hard to ignore.

If I do ignore the Imp, my likely trades are:
- Scott/McNeil (depending on team sheets) > Jordon
- Jones >Warner.

I'm prepared to hang on to Gaff and back him in.

 

[Montyjnr]

How many basement price rookies have you traded in and then cashed out at a peak price of 240-250k for 100k profit over the years?
Plenty I'm sure.

It is a common scenario, but also the worst case scenario with Tex.

I should also note that I respect Sam Collins & Ben McKay seemingly more than most on here.

I'm not locking in a big bag of goals from Tex on either of these guys - just hoping he can manage to scrap together a couple of 80s really.

 

[meataxe]

Re. Cripps...I think trading him out is an investment in your future Supercoach sanity.

Even if he pops out a 110 in R3, I'm certain coaches will still have no confidence in his output for the rest of 2021, the concerns about injury and role will remain. And if he limps along to another 70-80s score, you will again be pissed off with yourself about not moving him on, lost $20k (and potentially more if you missed on a sideways trade to players like Ridley).

I think one should only delay a trade if the purpose is to obtain more information or clarity on a player. If that is not going to be forthcoming, then no point to delay the trade. I don't think waiting another week to evaluate Cripps is going to add much clarity.

It's no fun holding such a player, only aggravation.

 

[inwhiterooms]

Deciding which of Neale/Cripps I dump this week is going to make or break me.

 

[Herbie66]

I think the big advantage Walker has if he does not live up to expectations is he is then a easy trade down to a rookie on the bubble (if their is one).

Doubt too many bench players have fattened for a Round 5 downgrade.

Just need to fully understand why you are bringing Walker in.

Is he a season keeper ? probably not

Can he provide a quick $ 150k and become a easy upgrade to a premium ? Highly likely he does.

 

[Spifflicator]

How many basement price rookies have you traded in and then cashed out at a peak price of 240-250k for 100k profit over the years?
Plenty I'm sure.

It is a common scenario, but also the worst case scenario with Tex.

To get him, I have to trade out Daniher, then I have to factor in that Daniher will make $80-100k anyway. In that case, the extra coin (say $80k more) from Tex, does not make the trade worthwhile. In my case, he doesn't make sense. For someone with a different problem, he might be perfect.

 

[whydoihavetoo]

Deciding which of Neale/Cripps I dump this week is going to make or break me.

Same for me... Ive never been so confident I'll jump the wrong way

 

[Juzzo]

Deciding which of Neale/Cripps I dump this week is going to make or break me.

Could dump both for 2 rookies, then week after go bang, bang 2 premos!

 

[Herbie66]

I've had another look at my trades and am thinking I wait on teams dropping as well.
Even though Hunter -> Jordon opens up some options structurally, if Scott or Sharp get dropped it seems silly to turf a playing rookie over a non-playing one as a correction trade.
Unless I thought those other two were sufficiently better scorers in the long term, which is hard to argue after scores in the 20s.

I think my choices are : -

Sharp/Fyfe or McNeil - > Jordon
Hunter/Scott - > Warner

Depending on teams and scores for 2 games , McNeil looks better to score more and make $$$ (could also vanish just as quick)

Until Marshall/Ryder are 100% confirmed Hunter theoretically stays.

No guarantees Marshall gets through the reserves game unscathed.

Bryan & Treacy possibly open up alternatives this round if named , no guarantees on their scoring or JS.

So personally I am hoping Sharp & Scott are both dropped and make the decision for me.

I guess if they do play 6-8 games I am then backing JordOn & Warner to play similar and make more $$$.

Ideally I would like to field the following rookies :-

Highmore
Campbell , Gulden , JordOn
Warner

then from Round 4 onwards focus on my plan for Flynn & Meek.

 

[Herbie66]

I am seriously considering Cripps to Cerra this week.

Having no money in the bank means I feel that Cerra is the only decent option I have.

Although I'm not sure by how many points he will outscore Cripps from here.

For it to be worthwhile from now I'd have to see Cerra beating Cripps season average by 10 taking into account the two scores already done.

Not sure this could happen. Any thoughts on this as a trade?

Why only a mid as a replacement though ?

Do you have DPP for :-

* speculative defender
* $ 200-325k defender currently scoring 90+
* Heeney
* $200-325k forward currently scoring 90+
* midfield rookie

plenty of options if you are not convinced on Cerra