I've looked at this question, and to answer it for all 4 field positions in SC would take me about 60 hours, so I've decided I will demonstrate my point by focussing on the Defenders section.
I chose this section for a few reasons. Firstly it is the most relevant to what Misky asked me. Secondly, it is the area of the ground with greatest variance in top listed players. Lastly, Midfielders have their Mr Consistents that fill the top placings, year in, year out (Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan, Selwood J etc), and Rucks only hold 2 Places in our 22, so it is very restrictive.
Let's start by looking at tables for the last 5 seasons. The first 10 Places in each years tables are filled by the players who had the 10 highest PIT65 average for the season. Look in the table "Key" if you don't know what this is. The other players listed in each years table, are the players that were the most expensive Defenders at round 1 each season.
So, 5 years of tables, and we can see that, of the 50 players that filled the 10 most expensive spots in each season, only 21 of them manged to fill a top 10 spot for that season! 23 of the 50 actually finished outside of the top 20 for the season. some of you will jump on the excuse wagon, that they were injured etc. I have 2 responses to that, firstly it might apply to 12 of the 23, secondly, we are looking at this from a preseason point of view. It's all in. Injuries don't count in this analysis, because right now, any player you pick is open to have a injury affected season.
The bottom line is, there is no safety in buying expensive players. This is highligghted by the fact, that only 2 players make the top 10 list every year. Goddard has 4 1st placings and a 3rd placing, and Enright has a 2nd, 4th, two 6ths and a 7th placing. Goddard of course, is no longer available as a Defender, and Enright, while aging, should genuinely be considered a SC star, that's consistency with a capital "C"!
No players make the list in 4 of the 5 years. Only 2 players make the list in 3 of the 5 years (Newman and Scotland), and another 7 players make the list twice. It shows that the top 10 Defenders list changes quite dramatically from year to the next, and only 42% of the positions are filled by the most expensive players.
There certainly is no safety in paying top dollar!
So all this raises a few other questions:
Where do the top 10 most expensive Defenders finish on the end of season list?
Where do the players who fill the top 10 Defenders come from on the most expensive list?
How far, or how many points outside the top 6, do the players that were expensive, finish?
And lastly, and very relevant for this season:
How do players that weren't Defenders in the previous season, perform in their first season as Defenders?
Lets look at another set of tables to answer those 4 questions:
The first table:
Where did the 10 most expensive defenders at rnd 1 finish the season?
The most expensive Defender each season has a great record, but it must be remembered, this is totally a reflection of Goddard. where we see that 4 of the 5 years the most expensive Defender finished top 3 for the season, all 4 times it was Goddard. As to be expected, the further we read to the right, the worse the record gets. What is surprisingly demonstrated by this table is, how badly the expensive players can fail, when they let you Down. it's not a slip from 1st to 12 or 14th, quite often they drop out of the top 20 or 30 players!
The second table:
How many points outside the top 6 did they finish?
This is more relevant than finishing position. You can finish 12th, and be 50 points behind the 6th player, and that's not such a bad result. You can finish 10th, and be 200 points behind the 6th player, and that's a disaster! Looking at this table should send shivers down your spine ,if you are starting round 1 with
ALL the expensive Defenders.
The 29 players, that finished 100 or more points behind the 6th best Defender, averaged finishing 340 points behind that player! That's nearly 60% of the the top 50 most expensive Defenders, and they've finished on average over 300 points behind the
6th best Defender!
The third table:
Where did the players that finished top 10 in the Defenders rankings come from on the most expensive list?
Is there a place, or range, we should be shopping for our Defenders? The simple answer is "no". There's no historical pattern to find here. 7 of the top 50 Defenders came from outside the most expensive 50 defenders, and 12 came from outside the top 30. That's an average of 2.4 top 10 Defenders each year coming from players as far down as the 30th most expensive, or lower. ie, nearly a quarter of the top Defenders each year. Yes, there are bargains to be found. Just keep in mind, a players performance only counts from when you trade them in. It's no good getting a top 10 player
after he has posted what is likely to be their 3 of their 4 best scores for the season. It just doesn't make sense, and if you need an example, just look at birchall last season!
The fourth table:
How did players, newly labelled Defenders, perform in their first year?
Given the situation we are looking at this season, with so many "Midfielders" available to be selected as Defenders, it is very relevant to see how similar players have performed in the past. In the 5 tables there are 13 players that fit this description. I have ordered the table from the most expensive "new" defender, down to the cheapest. Keep in mind, in 2011 players were 10% cheaper, as we had 33 man squads. I have adjusted the players accordingly, as you can see with Gibbs sitting above Goodwin, even though his price appears cheaper. 8 of the 13 "new" Defenders were in the top 6 most expensive Defenders of that season. Their record should open your eyes a little. Those 8 players finished in their respective years: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 9th, 17th, 20th, 21st and 74th! That's a horrible 50% success rate. Only 2 of the 8 players improved their average from the previous season. 7 of the 8 had lower PIT65 scores in their first Defender year. Overall, the 8 players were down, on average, just under 200 points each on their previous season. 12 of the 13 were in the 10 most expensive Defenders for their year, and only 4 of those 12 finished as top 10 Defenders. Included in this list is one $600k+ plus player, 2* $550k-$600k players and 7* $500k-$550k Defenders. All right in the price ranges were looking at this season, with Mitchell, Bartel and McVeigh. Of course, their previous seasons records are all similar, or better than those 3 players as well.
Summary
I'm certainly not suggesting don't start with these players. What I am suggesting is, go in with your eyes open, and realistic expectations. There is no way Bartel, Mitchell and McVeigh, and to a lesser extent Hodge, Walker A, and Simpson K can be considered locks for season top 10 Defender positions. Yes, all 6 might make it, but we have enough history to suggest that is more likely only 3 or 4 of them will, at most.
I will leave you with this thought. The people that allocate players their position (Champion Data?) have at their disposal more time and information than we ever will have. They are the experts, and like the Handicapper in racing, they will be proven right more times, than Joe Schmo from the public will be. For CD to have reallocated these players to Defenders, or Mid/Defenders, it means they have proof these players have shown a trend in their possessions and field time, that sees them spending more time in Defence than previous seasons. For the most part, these trends tend to continue, or increase, rather than reverse themselves. Sometimes, listening to those with all the information at their fingertips, is a good idea.
Don't avoid these 3 or 6 players because of what I have written here, but also don't blindly believe they are rolled gold certainties to be top 10, let alone top 6, Defenders. There is plenty of history that says a number of them will fail!
