Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

What kept you back from getting a higher ranking last year bad strategy/trading/structures or player selection and what would you do differently this year?

The short answer is patience. I have none. Zero. Zip. Zilch. Nada. Ikke noget.
I am too quick to trade players out, and I fiddle. Oh how I fiddle! I will have my trades decided on Sunday night, and do them on Thursday after the teams are announced, and then I'll play with them so much, that I end up doing something different! To be a good SC Coach requires patience, structure and discipline. I have one and a half of these. I am working on it, and I'm getting better, but I am afraid I'll never have the patience to play the game as it really should be played. It's just not in my nature.

 

[broges]

Rowsus quotes:
"What is surprisingly demonstrated by this table is, how badly the expensive players can fail, when they let you Down. it's not a slip from 1st to 12 or 14th, quite often they drop out of the top 20 or 30 players!"

"The 29 players, that finished 100 or more points behind the 6th best Defender, averaged finishing 340 points behind that player! That's nearly 60% of the top 50 most expensive Defenders, and they've finished on average over 300 points behind the 6th best Defender!"

"8 of the 13 "new" Defenders were in the top 6 most expensive Defenders of that season. Their record should open your eyes a little. Those 8 players finished in their respective years: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 9th, 17th, 20th, 21st and 74th! That's a horrible 50% success rate."

I was already planning to follow Johno's $500K rule regarding Defenders. Sir Rowsus' brilliant analysis absolutely cements that position! Many thanks for removing any shred of doubt! As always, love your work!

 

[Rowsus]

Ok another question, while we are on a roll!

General strategy question: For those that are thinking of doing a locked and loaded midfield this year (read that as you may but i would consider locked n loaded 6 superprems/prems or equivalent in the mids) shooting themselves in the foot?

I guess the advantages are that premos are much harder to get into your squads as the season progresses and you're buring 2-3 cows to get them in at times (looking at Ablett and Pendles for example), so it would make sense to start with them now? All these prems generally hold their value well compared to other lines (they score the most) and there is a possibility of picking someone up for a bargain in these lines when they have their "bad game".

Disadvantages: generally rookie mids score the most in the mids and thus generate the most coin, having few of these can hurt cash generation.

With the amount of value in the forward line this year/fallen prems (compared to previous years), the difference this year with higher priced rookies and the unpredicability of the def line i'm leaning more and more into the staked midfield option. Does anyone else agree?

Thanks Rowsus

First, read post #14 above.
You will start like a shot out of a gun with this strategy, and then die a quick and sudden death when the cash dries up mid-season. I'm just not sure you can generate enough cash in the other lines to get your team filled. The other problems are, you need balance. You need opportunity in each line, to bring in that unexpected "success" story, that pops up every season. (Of course, you identified them early, and brought them in before their price rose too much! ).
A couple of other points I'd make. The Premiums you take into your side for round 1, in general, become meaningless in terms of their dollar value, as you never intend to trade them out. Secondly, because the Midfielders are the higher priced commodities, their prices are open to bigger fluctuations, and therefore, potentially available at the best bargain prices. Add in the fact they are the cream of the competition, and they are more likely to bounce back with good scores, than a fallen Premium Defender or Forward.
Look at Selwood last season. He opened at $629k, and started the season well, but he a little dry patch in rounds 8, 9 and 10, and his price fell to $491k. At that price you'd hope/expect to get 98/game from any player, but he brought home a 130/game average from there. It's hard to imagine a Defender or Forward managing that. Remember, the higher they fly, the quicker they fall, and it is only the really good players that bounce back. There is more of them to be found in the Midfield.

 

[Manikato1]

I have question Rowsus. It relates to players moving clubs.

Is there statistical trend that points to a $ value on a players starting price where it is more likely that a player changing clubs will improve in scoring. Or… perhaps there is $ value that trends towards a drop in scoring?

For example Goddard changed clubs but he ave 106 last season which is par for the course for him. Some thought a change of club could see a drop in output. I have ignored Ablett as an example as he kills it no matter who he plays for. But take David Rodan a few seasons ago. A change of club produced a jump from 29 to 89 in one season(not gonna happen this year!). He would have started at almost a rookie price that year I would imagine.

So do the value for money jumps in scoring come from players that switch clubs but say are under $275k (that is just a number I picked at random) –and is their SC position play any role in any trend?

 

[Rowsus]

I have question Rowsus. It relates to players moving clubs.

Is there statistical trend that points to a $ value on a players starting price where it is more likely that a player changing clubs will improve in scoring. Or… perhaps there is $ value that trends towards a drop in scoring?

For example Goddard changed clubs but he ave 106 last season which is par for the course for him. Some thought a change of club could see a drop in output. I have ignored Ablett as an example as he kills it no matter who he plays for. But take David Rodan a few seasons ago. A change of club produced a jump from 29 to 89 in one season(not gonna happen this year!). He would have started at almost a rookie price that year I would imagine.

So do the value for money jumps in scoring come from players that switch clubs but say are under $275k (that is just a number I picked at random) –and is their SC position play any role in any trend?

I think you may possibly be over complicating it a little.
Outside of proven players, that change Clubs through free Agency, nearly all players that change Clubs are largely SC irrelevant.
Let me demonstrate.
Last season 40 players changed Clubs.
Only 6 of them manged to play 19 games or more:
Goddard 22/2334, Monfries 22/1985, Pearce D 22/1765, Chaplin 21/1435, Roberton 20/1500, Stevens 19/1293.
As you can see, only 2 of them SC relevant.
Another 7 managed 16 games or more:
Lake 18/1416, Lynch Q 18/1234, Broughton 17/1224, Murphy T 17/1209, Byrnes 17/950, Moloney 16/1355, Caddy 16/965
All pretty much irrelevant, as far as SC keepers go.
Even if we ignore the game counts, and look at the SC averages of the 40 players that moved club, they fall away dramatically:
Goddard 106.1, Monfries 90.2, Tippett 89.8, Edwards A 88.9, Hudson 84.7, Moloney 84.69, Pearce D 80.2.
All in all, from a pool of 40 players, that's a pretty lousy return.
I think there is a good reason for all this, that's fairly obvious. Clubs don't trade good players, and the players that do look good have baggage attached, like McIntosh last year. Roughly half of the 40 played less than 10 games. Well over 30 had injury concerns. If ever a Club trades someone "out of the blue", you can nearly be sure that player either has a problem (physical or attitude), or just isn't that good.
I don't think there's any magic dollar value to look at, just assess them case by case. Goddard was always going to be a success, in any team he went to. Monfries always looked like he might get a more prominent role in Port's line up. Some people might have thought that would apply to Broughton going to Gold Coast, or Gilham going to GWS, but each had a sufficient question mark over their heads to warrant putting them on a watch list at best.
It's certainly worth assessing players at new Clubs, as it possibly presents new opportunities. The one thing to remember is, it won't instantly make them better footballers. As an example, there were many pushing up for C Knights to make an improvement, with his shift from Adelaide to Richmond. They forgot to factor in that he is only a fringe quality AFL player/SC player, so it doesn't matter where you put him, it doesn't make him a better player, SC or AFL. It's like putting me in the Australian Test team, and saying I'm a Test quality cricketer.

 

[broges]

Can't argue with those stats Sir Rowsus! However, there may be an opportunity for coaches each season to find that one 'diamond in the rough' that has swapped clubs and is about to go bang. 2012's example was Ivan 'The Mullet' Maric whom I had in my starting team. Whilst I did not have Monfries in my starting team in 2013, I was quick to get him after round 2 when he was on the bubble since it appeared Power and him were on the up. No regrets on both players. So who is 2014's 'diamond in the rough'? Time will tell !

 

[Rowsus]

Can't argue with those stats Sir Rowsus! However, there may be an opportunity for coaches each season to find that one 'diamond in the rough' that has swapped clubs and is about to go bang. 2012's example was Ivan 'The Mullet' Maric whom I had in my starting team. Whilst I did not have Monfries in my starting team in 2013, I was quick to get him after round 2 when he was on the bubble since it appeared Power and him were on the up. No regrets on both players. So who is 2014's 'diamond in the rough'? Time will tell !

I totally agree. I just don't think it's worth analysing every player shift.
In each (dedicated) Coaches preparation to pick their opening team, they should be assessing every relevant player anyway. Shifting Clubs can be factored in at that time. Spending hours analysing last years 40 shifters before the 2013 season still would have only thrown up Goddard, Monfries, and Moloney as a possible Stepping Stone. The opportunities like Maric from 2012 can be found by assessing Maric at that time. I think assessing players that have shifted Clubs, as a seperate group, can create a double up in assessing those players, and can also sometimes make you assess them incorrectly. It might cause you to "isolate" them a little, rather than assess their total situation properly.

 

[Maso]

shaw is looking even better after that Q&A , proven performer + new club but unlike goddard he doesnt seem to play full seasons

 

[Rowsus]

shaw is looking even better after that Q&A , proven performer + new club but unlike goddard he doesnt seem to play full seasons

I agree, it's hard to imagine him not being in, or around, the top 10 Defenders, IF he can stay on the park. It's that big "if" that I keep tripping over, though.

 

[Philzsay]

shaw is looking even better after that Q&A , proven performer + new club but unlike goddard he doesnt seem to play full seasons

I agree, it's hard to imagine him not being in, or around, the top 10 Defenders, IF he can stay on the park. It's that big "if" that I keep tripping over, though.

Same here. He is a tough one as I reckon if he does have a great year he will have purple patch periods where he gets excellent scores for a few weeks but there will be another stage in the year where he pulls out a few dud scores in a row. I am guessing if he does go on a purple patch it may be early on in the year. Further like others I worry that he will miss some games at some stage, and I don't want to trade him in only to see him play for a week or two before he goes AWOL.

So for me it becomes either pick him in my starting squad, or forget about him for the year.

 

[broges]

I agree, it's hard to imagine him not being in, or around, the top 10 Defenders, IF he can stay on the park. It's that big "if" that I keep tripping over, though.

I'm not sure who gets more frustrated. Heath himself, his coach, his team mates, his fans or SC coaches with him in their team?! So much talent but those brain fades are a concern. Perhaps moving to GWS and taking on a leadership role will do the trick and help him mature.

 

[meanieoh]

Hi Rowsus,

Due to Adelaide's opening games, do you see any value in waiting for a price drop before picking up Dangerfield?

Rd 1 Geelong - playing away Skilled Stadium where Adelaide haven't won since Rd 10, 2003, Dangers avg in the last 4 games vs Geelong is 87.7
Rd 2 Port - Port have split the last 6 Showdowns 3 wins each, Danger has averaged 98.7 in SC across the last 6 games
Rd 3 Sydney - Sydney have won 2 out of the last 3 outings against Adelaide (and only lost by 5 pts in the one they lost) - Dangers avg across these last 3 games has been 97.3

 

[Nk29]

Hi Rowsus,

Due to Adelaide's opening games, do you see any value in waiting for a price drop before picking up Dangerfield?

Rd 1 Geelong - playing away Skilled Stadium where Adelaide haven't won since Rd 10, 2003, Dangers avg in the last 4 games vs Geelong is 87.7
Rd 2 Port - Port have split the last 6 Showdowns 3 wins each, Danger has averaged 98.7 in SC across the last 6 games
Rd 3 Sydney - Sydney have won 2 out of the last 3 outings against Adelaide (and only lost by 5 pts in the one they lost) - Dangers avg across these last 3 games has been 97.3

The thing with Dangerfield is that even if he starts slow and drops say 50k over those 4 games, there is no way you'll be able to trade him in unless one of your premiums goes down with an injury and he'll likely go huge soon after keeping his score up, just like last year.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Hi Rowsus, I've got a few pretty simple questions here for you mate and I don't require huge long statistical analysis. Just a simple ya or nay would suffice for me as I am spending some time on X vs. Y sort of player consideration etc. today whilst I watch the ODI

1. This year due to once again being a lack of FWD rookies, would you recommend playing a Floating Donut in the FWD line and having a DPP link into the RUC??? Are you going to play a Floating Donut in 2014??

2. Chad Wingard, yes or no??

3. Matthew Suckling, yes or no??

4. JP Kennedy vs. Cotchin vs. both for a MID structure of Ablett, Pendlebury, Beams + one of Watson/Selwood?? I'm a little concerned about Selwood having foot surgery this week.

Anyway mate, just interested to here your thoughts on these couple of questions. No rush, just when you get a chance.

Cheers Goodie

 

[meanieoh]

The thing with Dangerfield is that even if he starts slow and drops say 50k over those 4 games, there is no way you'll be able to trade him in unless one of your premiums goes down with an injury and he'll likely go huge soon after keeping his score up, just like last year.

Thanks Nk29, I was hoping to shave a few $K to make room elsewhere and grab him later but alas, not to be. Thank you for taking time to share some advice.

 

[Manikato1]

Thanks for your comments Rowsus regarding my question about players moving clubs. Maybe I did over complicate it but I’m always looking for an angle or something to use as a rough guide.

With respect the earlier discussion on Shaw and GWS I will supply some comment that I have stolen from another SC site a I frequent ( yes I am a tart and I get around).

In both of the last two seasons Heath has managed to score greater than 120 on 5 occasions, but in both those seasons he managed to score below 80 on 4 occasions. Consistently inconsistent. It then begs the question is it really worth picking up Shaw from the start of the year if we can bank on him having at least four games below 80 during the season. I say this because you are 100% guaranteed to pick him up a lot cheaper than the 500k+ price tag he will have from round 1, as a few of those sub 80 scores run through his rolling average. I say this before I even look at what might lie ahead for him at his new club.

We can see that Shaw struggled in a losing Collingwood side last season, only averaging 80.71 in the 7 losses he played in, compared to the 106.33 average in a winning team.

If you have kept a close eye on Shaw over the last few years you would notice that he is a last quarter specialist when it comes to fantasy scoring. Another way of putting it is that he is a junk time specialist, picking up a lot of stats as Collingwood chip it around as they close out games when they are in very comfortable winning position. Reverse the scenario where Collingwood are losing and Shaw has copped a heavy tag for most of the game and you will get the scores like the one he had in round 21 against Hawthorn where he managed to score only 37 Supercoach points

The next couple of questions you have got to ask yourself are, how many games do you see GWS chipping the ball around closing out games, and how many games is Shaw going to be the man receiving attention from an oppositions forward taggers? My educated guess would be, not many and a lot respectively.

Less Junk Time Stats + More Attention from Taggers = Less Fantasy Points for Shaw

 

[Rowsus]

I agree, it's hard to imagine him not being in, or around, the top 10 Defenders, IF he can stay on the park. It's that big "if" that I keep tripping over, though.

Same here. He is a tough one as I reckon if he does have a great year he will have purple patch periods where he gets excellent scores for a few weeks but there will be another stage in the year where he pulls out a few dud scores in a row. I am guessing if he does go on a purple patch it may be early on in the year. Further like others I worry that he will miss some games at some stage, and I don't want to trade him in only to see him play for a week or two before he goes AWOL.

So for me it becomes either pick him in my starting squad, or forget about him for the year.

I'm not sure who gets more frustrated. Heath himself, his coach, his team mates, his fans or SC coaches with him in their team?! So much talent but those brain fades are a concern. Perhaps moving to GWS and taking on a leadership role will do the trick and help him mature.

With respect the earlier discussion on Shaw and GWS I will supply some comment that I have stolen from another SC site a I frequent ( yes I am a tart and I get around).

In both of the last two seasons Heath has managed to score greater than 120 on 5 occasions, but in both those seasons he managed to score below 80 on 4 occasions. Consistently inconsistent. It then begs the question is it really worth picking up Shaw from the start of the year if we can bank on him having at least four games below 80 during the season. I say this because you are 100% guaranteed to pick him up a lot cheaper than the 500k+ price tag he will have from round 1, as a few of those sub 80 scores run through his rolling average. I say this before I even look at what might lie ahead for him at his new club.

We can see that Shaw struggled in a losing Collingwood side last season, only averaging 80.71 in the 7 losses he played in, compared to the 106.33 average in a winning team.

If you have kept a close eye on Shaw over the last few years you would notice that he is a last quarter specialist when it comes to fantasy scoring. Another way of putting it is that he is a junk time specialist, picking up a lot of stats as Collingwood chip it around as they close out games when they are in very comfortable winning position. Reverse the scenario where Collingwood are losing and Shaw has copped a heavy tag for most of the game and you will get the scores like the one he had in round 21 against Hawthorn where he managed to score only 37 Supercoach points

The next couple of questions you have got to ask yourself are, how many games do you see GWS chipping the ball around closing out games, and how many games is Shaw going to be the man receiving attention from an oppositions forward taggers? My educated guess would be, not many and a lot respectively.

Less Junk Time Stats + More Attention from Taggers = Less Fantasy Points for Shaw

I get the feeling getting, or not getting, Shaw will be one of those season defining decisions for every Coach. It has the ability to divide the Coaching community into the haves and the have nots. Which group will have the advantage is too hard to say right now. I think the information that Manikato has quoted (Thanks for that, I love a good stats breakdown!) is very pertinent, as is Philzsays "start him or forget him". I think he is right, and if you are in doubt about a high priced player, particularly a Defender, it's probably best to forget him. I started with him in my team, but he hasn't been there the last 6 or 7 weeks now.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Due to Adelaide's opening games, do you see any value in waiting for a price drop before picking up Dangerfield?

Rd 1 Geelong - playing away Skilled Stadium where Adelaide haven't won since Rd 10, 2003, Dangers avg in the last 4 games vs Geelong is 87.7
Rd 2 Port - Port have split the last 6 Showdowns 3 wins each, Danger has averaged 98.7 in SC across the last 6 games
Rd 3 Sydney - Sydney have won 2 out of the last 3 outings against Adelaide (and only lost by 5 pts in the one they lost) - Dangers avg across these last 3 games has been 97.3

The thing with Dangerfield is that even if he starts slow and drops say 50k over those 4 games, there is no way you'll be able to trade him in unless one of your premiums goes down with an injury and he'll likely go huge soon after keeping his score up, just like last year.

Nk29 has nailed it. The only trades you should be doing that early are corrective, while you wait for your Cows to fatten, to get Danger then you'd have to bone a Premium anyway, so not a good plan. Even if he does dip after 3 or 4 games he then hits an easy patch, and should quickly bounce back. Even though he has a history of starting seasons slowly:
2012 - averaged 118.9, but only 94 in the first 4 games.
2013 - averaged 112.9, but only 93 in the first 5 games.
I think he is a must have to start with, because I can't see him dropping that much in price. I have him at 113.2 in my RAMP predictor, and that says it takes until round 20 for his price to drop to $50k below his opening price.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, I've got a few pretty simple questions here for you mate and I don't require huge long statistical analysis. Just a simple ya or nay would suffice for me as I am spending some time on X vs. Y sort of player consideration etc. today whilst I watch the ODI

1. This year due to once again being a lack of FWD rookies, would you recommend playing a Floating Donut in the FWD line and having a DPP link into the RUC??? Are you going to play a Floating Donut in 2014??

There certainly seems to be a lack of good Forward Rookies we can be confident in, but alas, there is also no DPP Ruck I have confidence in either. If Dixon can show he is fit during the NAB's I'll consider it, but for the moment I will be doing my best to get 30 starters round 1, and use loopholes when one of my playing stock goes missing. I am fully expecting I won't be able to get a playing R4 Rookie in round 1, so will be using King from Melbourne at R4 if I can't as a loophole tool.

2. Chad Wingard, yes or no??

I am worried about Wingard being a bit of a DHS (DownHill Skier), and Port not starting the season so strong. Because I have some doubt about him, and he is fairly high priced, I will probably target him around round 11, where Port might string a couple of wins together.

3. Matthew Suckling, yes or no?

I am generally against Stepping Stones, and would prefer a Rookie instead, having said that, if I can't find enough Rookies to fill my Defence I will start Suckling.

4. JP Kennedy vs. Cotchin vs. both for a MID structure of Ablett, Pendlebury, Beams + one of Watson/Selwood?? I'm a little concerned about Selwood having foot surgery this week.

Anyway mate, just interested to here your thoughts on these couple of questions. No rush, just when you get a chance.

Cheers Goodie

I share your concern on Selwood. Foot surgery, even if minor, can't be a good thing. As to Cotchin V JPK, I think both will be useful this season, but not top 10. Given you have Ablett, Pendlebury and Beams already, I think if you had to choose one of Cotchin or JPK, it should be JPK. There's really not a lot between them in my mind, so you may as well take the round 10 bye player.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

There certainly seems to be a lack of good Forward Rookies we can be confident in, but alas, there is also no DPP Ruck I have confidence in either. If Dixon can show he is fit during the NAB's I'll consider it, but for the moment I will be doing my best to get 30 starters round 1, and use loopholes when one of my playing stock goes missing. I am fully expecting I waon't be able to get a playing R4 Rookie in round 1, so will be using King from Melbourne at R4 if I can't as a loophole tool.


I am worried about Wingard being a bit of a DHS (DownHill Skier), and Port not starting the season so strong. Because I have some doubt about him, and he is fairly high priced, I will probably target him around round 11, where Port might string a couple of wins together.


I am generally against Stepping Stones, and would prefer a Rookie instead, having said that, if I can't find enough Rookies to fill my Defence I will start Suckling.



I share your concern on Selwood. Foot surgery, even if minor, can't be a good thing. As to Cotchin V JPK, I think both will be useful this season, but not top 10. Given you have Ablett, Pendlebury and Beams already, I think if you had to choose one of Cotchin or JPK, it should be JPK. There's really not a lot between them in my mind, so you may as well take the round 10 bye player.

Cheers for these answers Rowsus, very much appreciated. This should keep me going for a few more days, and a few more rough drafts