Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
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Rowsus I was wondering if you might be able to briefly turn your mind to young Aaron Black?
Am warming to him as a mid-price forward option in the injured Motlop price range. This puff piece from North Melbourne may be blurring my vision sightly [http://www.nmfc.com.au/news/2014-01-25/black-is-back-nmfc]
Would love to hear your thoughts on whether you think more game time and a full season will lead to a significant points return.
Thanks again.
Am warming to him as a mid-price forward option in the injured Motlop price range. This puff piece from North Melbourne may be blurring my vision sightly [http://www.nmfc.com.au/news/2014-01-25/black-is-back-nmfc]
Would love to hear your thoughts on whether you think more game time and a full season will lead to a significant points return.
Thanks again.
Hi RB,
Firstly on keeping cash. There is nothing wrong with keeping a little cash in reserve. It can help if one of the Rookies you chose early was just the wrong choice, and you need to bring in that higher priced Rookie that has started 95, 98 and has a super low B/E. If it turns out your Rookie choices are ok, the cash makes your first upgrade a bit easier.
The theory of spending as much as your money as you can, is right ...... in theory! You just have to be sure you're not spending the money for the sake of spending it. If you've filled your round 1 side, and have say $130k left, I think you are better to sit on that $130k, unless you think you can make at least a 20-25/week improvement to your side by spending it. The most common mistake in spending this money is turning a Rookie into a Karnezis, because you've convinced yourself he can score 80/week. 9 times out of 10, when you "upgrade" that Rookie to a $230-$300k player, you will regret it, and think later, "I just should have kept the cash!"
On keeping cash in the hope that a Premium will fall $200k quickly. The analogy of a trade = $200k is about right, I certainly wouldn't burn an early trade to get $50k. But look how hard it is for a player to drop $200k. We'll use Ablett as an example, as the higher the Price, the bigger the potential to fall quickly.
These figures are only approximate, as we don't have the Magic Numbers for weeks in advance, but according to RAMP, for Ablett to fall $200k by the time he has played:
Round 7 - he'd need to score 88 every game to fall $202,400
Round 6 - he'd need to score 82 every game to fall $203,000.
Two things you can see straight away. First, it's really hard, even for the highest priced players, to fall $200k quickly. Secondly, do you really want to pay $490k for a player who has only scored at 88 for his last 7 games?
Firstly on keeping cash. There is nothing wrong with keeping a little cash in reserve. It can help if one of the Rookies you chose early was just the wrong choice, and you need to bring in that higher priced Rookie that has started 95, 98 and has a super low B/E. If it turns out your Rookie choices are ok, the cash makes your first upgrade a bit easier.
The theory of spending as much as your money as you can, is right ...... in theory! You just have to be sure you're not spending the money for the sake of spending it. If you've filled your round 1 side, and have say $130k left, I think you are better to sit on that $130k, unless you think you can make at least a 20-25/week improvement to your side by spending it. The most common mistake in spending this money is turning a Rookie into a Karnezis, because you've convinced yourself he can score 80/week. 9 times out of 10, when you "upgrade" that Rookie to a $230-$300k player, you will regret it, and think later, "I just should have kept the cash!"
On keeping cash in the hope that a Premium will fall $200k quickly. The analogy of a trade = $200k is about right, I certainly wouldn't burn an early trade to get $50k. But look how hard it is for a player to drop $200k. We'll use Ablett as an example, as the higher the Price, the bigger the potential to fall quickly.
These figures are only approximate, as we don't have the Magic Numbers for weeks in advance, but according to RAMP, for Ablett to fall $200k by the time he has played:
Round 7 - he'd need to score 88 every game to fall $202,400
Round 6 - he'd need to score 82 every game to fall $203,000.
Two things you can see straight away. First, it's really hard, even for the highest priced players, to fall $200k quickly. Secondly, do you really want to pay $490k for a player who has only scored at 88 for his last 7 games?
I had one cut of my team where I had built it around Gaz, Pendles and players 28 or younger who had dropped 10 or more points from last year. It's a pretty good setup that had close to a half mil in the bank. It might not have scored you too many top 10 finishes, but it gives you 32 trades for the year.
Unfortunately, I chickened out from that approach and now I have a setup tht is heaps more cookie cutter and has 50k free
In reply to what Rowsus wrote in the Ablett example: I think the idea is to use the extra cash against one of your stepping stones. Dangerfield, for example, had fallen to 545k pretty early on in last year. By that stage, you could have upgrded Moloney with a portion of your kitty.
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Rowsus, I noticed in a different thread that you have performed an analysis of the past 3 or 4 SC winners, including review of trades etc.. I was wondering whether as part of that analysis if you have the weekly scores or weekly cumulative scores for each of the winners? The reason for asking is that I would like to benchmark my projected team (and then the actual results throughout the season) against the previous winners.
I realise that each season is different, however I think it would be interesting to see the jump in scores as each team gets gradually upgraded and then completed as well as observe any similarities or differences in the shape of the curve for each winner.
Thanks
I realise that each season is different, however I think it would be interesting to see the jump in scores as each team gets gradually upgraded and then completed as well as observe any similarities or differences in the shape of the curve for each winner.
Thanks
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Well worded, and not confusing, and a very good question!
The simple answer is, no we have no way of calculating this. You'd need to have access to the scores at the final siren, then you could compare them to the final scores for the game, after VS/CD have done their "tweaking".
Just using some quick mental arithmatic to try and approximate it, you'd need to ignore the "Bartel 40 points for a late goal" factor, as you'd have no way of knowing who to give that to. So we are looking at how it affects the players in general, rather than specific high scoring adjustments. I can only guestimate what this may be worth, but from following SC for many years, I am confident it less than 10%, I'd hazard a guess at around 7-8% for the more "affected" players, down to 2-3% for the less affected players. For the sake of the exercise, let's say it is 10%, just to see the effect.
Let's assume you have a player averaging around 100/game, and he played 20 games for the season.
Obviously he has scored 2000 points for the season. We are assuming he lost 10% in 3 close games for being in losing teams, so we need to add 33 to his total. We are also assuming he will gain 10% in 3 close games for winning them next year, so we need to add another 30 to his total. Now his total is 2063 in 20 games, for an average of 103.2. It's really not much of a gain, and we were using a high percentage. I'm not sure I'd try and factor it into your selection thoughts.
Great question, Fluffy, have 140 rep points!
The simple answer is, no we have no way of calculating this. You'd need to have access to the scores at the final siren, then you could compare them to the final scores for the game, after VS/CD have done their "tweaking".
Just using some quick mental arithmatic to try and approximate it, you'd need to ignore the "Bartel 40 points for a late goal" factor, as you'd have no way of knowing who to give that to. So we are looking at how it affects the players in general, rather than specific high scoring adjustments. I can only guestimate what this may be worth, but from following SC for many years, I am confident it less than 10%, I'd hazard a guess at around 7-8% for the more "affected" players, down to 2-3% for the less affected players. For the sake of the exercise, let's say it is 10%, just to see the effect.
Let's assume you have a player averaging around 100/game, and he played 20 games for the season.
Obviously he has scored 2000 points for the season. We are assuming he lost 10% in 3 close games for being in losing teams, so we need to add 33 to his total. We are also assuming he will gain 10% in 3 close games for winning them next year, so we need to add another 30 to his total. Now his total is 2063 in 20 games, for an average of 103.2. It's really not much of a gain, and we were using a high percentage. I'm not sure I'd try and factor it into your selection thoughts.
Great question, Fluffy, have 140 rep points!
I think I'd tread carefully with Black. The key to his success as a SC player appears to be Robbie Tarrant.
Last year Black played 8 games without Tarrant in the team. He averaged 94% TOG and 87 SC points in those games.
Black played 10 games with Tarrant in the team. He averaged 88% TOG and 68 SC points in those games.
His TOG is very high, so he has no improvement in him there. His only hope of being SC relevant is if Tarrant is not playing, or Petrie starts spending more time in the Ruck to ease Goldsteins burden. Even with North expected to win more games in 2014, I'm not sure I could back Black in, to get his average over 90/game.
Last year Black played 8 games without Tarrant in the team. He averaged 94% TOG and 87 SC points in those games.
Black played 10 games with Tarrant in the team. He averaged 88% TOG and 68 SC points in those games.
His TOG is very high, so he has no improvement in him there. His only hope of being SC relevant is if Tarrant is not playing, or Petrie starts spending more time in the Ruck to ease Goldsteins burden. Even with North expected to win more games in 2014, I'm not sure I could back Black in, to get his average over 90/game.
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Hi Siwel,
IDIG started a thread, where he did a mass of work to identify players being affected by subbed scores.
you can find it here: 2013 Multiple Subbed Players A bargain hunter's paradise
You should check it out, as it's a really useful piece of work.
I'll save you some work on Caddy.
I've seen his name mentioned a few times, but I must admit, I don't see what the attraction is.
He averaged around 71% TOG last season, including the subbed games. I'm just not sure his returns last season warrant the interest shown in him this season. I know he's in the right age group, and a 4th season player, but I would have liked to see more, before I took him at his awkward price.
IDIG started a thread, where he did a mass of work to identify players being affected by subbed scores.
you can find it here: 2013 Multiple Subbed Players A bargain hunter's paradise
You should check it out, as it's a really useful piece of work.
I'll save you some work on Caddy.
I've seen his name mentioned a few times, but I must admit, I don't see what the attraction is.
He averaged around 71% TOG last season, including the subbed games. I'm just not sure his returns last season warrant the interest shown in him this season. I know he's in the right age group, and a 4th season player, but I would have liked to see more, before I took him at his awkward price.
Adding to Rowsus's numbers...if you take out an outlier score of 20 in round 5 (not sure what happened in that game) his unsubbed average increases to 73. With some greater minutes in the midfield this year, I think we should see some increase in his numbers, but I don't expect a spike. From memory he wasn't a ball magnet as a junior and is therefore unlikely to be consistently pumping our 20+ disposals per match (last year he averaged 14.9).
Looking at the crystal ball, I would expect him to average between 80-85. When you are paying for a 60 average, I think its an acceptable result. Could possibly be used as a stepping stone, or F7/M9 swing during the season.
His selection will all depend of team structure I think.
Good analysis. I expect Caddy to be a 25 disposal, goal kicking mid in a few years, but probably won't get that far this year. With regards to being a ball magnet as a junior, just keep in mind that they also play shorter games, so disposal counts are often less in juniors than when players reach their peak in the AFL.
Hi TeeJay, no it hasn't been asked.
Unfortunately, my answer will be pretty Vanilla. The most important thing to get right this season, and every other season, is your trades. You can start with what in hindsight turns out to be a few glaring errors in your team, and fix them along the way. If you get too many errors in your trades though, you are cooked. The next most important thing to get right is your Captain selection, though unless you are going totally leftfield in your selections, this is partly luck, and if you get it wrong, chances are there will be a lot of Coaches in the same boat.
Unfortunately, my answer will be pretty Vanilla. The most important thing to get right this season, and every other season, is your trades. You can start with what in hindsight turns out to be a few glaring errors in your team, and fix them along the way. If you get too many errors in your trades though, you are cooked. The next most important thing to get right is your Captain selection, though unless you are going totally leftfield in your selections, this is partly luck, and if you get it wrong, chances are there will be a lot of Coaches in the same boat.
Cheers Rowsus, any player you've locked in yet? Or is that a trade secret
I'll give you my solid gold locks, that I can't see myself starting without them if they stay fit:
Def: Hurn, Fuller
Mid: Ablett, Pendlebury, Murphy, Beams, Michie, Dunstan
Ruc: Lobbe
Fwd: Dangerfield, Franklin, Chapman, Pavlich, Kersten, Taylor
10 Prem/Bargains, 5 Rookies. Half my team solid gold locks (Health, fitness and round 1 selection pending).
Krk004 also asked about Chappy in the now closed forward thread so thought I would answer here.
So far all reports (including most importantly from fans who go to training as opposed to the fluff pieces) have been positive. Noone has mentioned an injury yet.
As a side note his girlfriend had a baby son today! So now the Bombers just have to squeeze 100 games out of Chappy
So far all reports (including most importantly from fans who go to training as opposed to the fluff pieces) have been positive. Noone has mentioned an injury yet.
As a side note his girlfriend had a baby son today! So now the Bombers just have to squeeze 100 games out of Chappy
Krk004 also asked about Chappy in the now closed forward thread so thought I would answer here.
So far all reports (including most importantly from fans who go to training as opposed to the fluff pieces) have been positive. Noone has mentioned an injury yet.
As a side note his girlfriend had a baby son today! So now the Bombers just have to squeeze 100 games out of Chappy
So far all reports (including most importantly from fans who go to training as opposed to the fluff pieces) have been positive. Noone has mentioned an injury yet.
As a side note his girlfriend had a baby son today! So now the Bombers just have to squeeze 100 games out of Chappy
:
I agree, I would only look at using Caddy as a stepping stone to F4/F5 and be looking to upgrade about round 6 onwards once he makes 100k hopefully.
I highlighted him as a mid price midfielder who is eligible as a fwd, I dont think there are many others with the potential upside he has (more mid time, no green vest, another preseason under his belt)
I highlighted him as a mid price midfielder who is eligible as a fwd, I dont think there are many others with the potential upside he has (more mid time, no green vest, another preseason under his belt)
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