Analysis 2021: The Lachie Neale Conundrum

[Bermi]

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I read the above message, from BRL, as that Neale's problem is not serious, or a long term injury, or by playing will hamper his recovery and he is on the mend.

I know he is not fit yet because he missed part of the preseason. With the combination of a niggling injury and lack of fitness, I am not surprised he is only playing half games, not working hard on the field and being rested a lot in the forward line.

Barring any further injury, I am confident that Neale will get back to his best. There is still a long season to go and I take solace in knowing that I have saved a trade to fix another issue this round.

 

[Socrates2]

Neale disaster! I don't care how much people gild the lilly, It's a major disaster!

 

[Socrates2]

Was an interesting game, for the first half it was a very high stoppage (for this season at least) game and Lachie (and Grundy) were both dominant scorers.

2nd half was a very low stoppage (even by this season) half and Grundy and Neale both faded significantly out of the game.

Lachie is struggling to cover the ground, last year I basically never saw him walking, this year he's walking a lot, not making repeat contests and not getting into space for leading marks or presenting as a handball option nearly as much. Everything about how he's playing says he's underdone to me after being at peak fitness the past two years.

I don't think he's underdone, I think his back is stuffed.
I don't see how his back can improve without taking weeks off.

 

[whydoihavetoo]

Neale disaster! I don't care how much people gild the lilly, It's a major disaster!

I think that depends on if its a fitness issue or an injury issue. I kept because I think hes a 110+ player by the end of the season, if he ends up averaging 110+ its a win for keeping imo. Much to early to be a disaster.

 

[Socrates2]

I think that depends on if its a fitness issue or an injury issue. I kept because I think hes a 110+ player by the end of the season, if he ends up averaging 110+ its a win for keeping imo. Much to early to be a disaster.

All I see is an injury and a change of role.
The change of role is half a game in the midfield and half up forward as demonstrated last night.
He will drop nearly $200,000 and everyone will trade him in ,which equals a $200,000 loss + 1 saved trade.
But the main thing is his sub-par scoring.

 

[whydoihavetoo]

All I see is an injury and a change of role.
The change of role is half a game in the midfield and half up forward as demonstrated last night.
He will drop nearly $200,000 and everyone will trade him in ,which equals a $200,000 loss + 1 saved trade.
But the main thing is his sub-par scoring.

If he turns it around its 200k lost and 2 trades because we will want him back. If he doeant return to premo scoring its an obvious win to trade him but again i don't thi k thats likley. Its only 1 trade for the people who avoided him at the start.

 

[All is Wells]

If he turns it around its 200k lost and 2 trades because we will want him back. If he doeant return to premo scoring its an obvious win to trade him but again i don't thi k thats likley. Its only 1 trade for the people who avoided him at the start.

Its a common misconception that trading a premo out that you get back later costs 2 trades. It only costs 1 as when you trade him back in as an upgrade, you would have had to use that trade regardless on any other player you traded in as the upgrade, whether that be neale or not.

 

[7/11]

It might be denial, but looking at each game in isolation kind of gives me a bit of confidence he can turn it around:

Game 1 vs Swans: Rarely scores well against the Swans, so I put that down as an expected result for him. Looking at it closer, not one player hit 30 disposals for the game (highest was 29 and Neale got 24 which was 2nd highest for his team).

Game 2 vs Geelong: Geelong beat the absolute crap out of Neale in this game, exceptionally physical and highest disposals for the game from a Lion was 25. Pretty hard to expect Neale to get a lot of ball when only 3 of his team mates hit 20 disposals. Even Geelong’s highest disposal getter achieved 28. Looking at those stats again, it’s crazy that the Lions were even in the game.

Game 3 vs Pies: 21 disposals after majority of them in the first half. Was almost perfect the first half and then as the ball got more contested and a lack of handball clearances were had, the ball avoided Neale completely. 30 was the highest amount of disposals and that was Pendlebury who found himself in space a lot towards the end and got some very cheap disposals.

Ratios is what I also look at too, considering Neale’s back injury. To have 14 kicks vs 7 handballs this week, when he had 8 and 7 in the first two rounds, tells me that his back is getting better. You don’t go for the kick option as much when your back is bothering you, as it’s a sure fire way to flare it up.

Lastly, the Lions have played in 2 losses and a very tight win where they’ve come from behind (practically all game) to do it. Neale’s big scores have generally come from strong wins or games where they have been dominant in possession from the first quarter. We have yet to see that this season.

It could be blind optimism, but beyond rd 4 I can see a turnaround in Neale’s fortune.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

All I see is an injury and a change of role.
The change of role is half a game in the midfield and half up forward as demonstrated last night.
He will drop nearly $200,000 and everyone will trade him in ,which equals a $200,000 loss + 1 saved trade.
But the main thing is his sub-par scoring.

I think the main thing from here is what is priced in and opportunity cost of holding. If you move him on now to a similar price player, you get a partly better score until Neale returns to form, plus save $50k. Is that worth it? Probably not.

Neale showed a lot of positives last night, scoring power 1H shows the game can still suit him. at full fitness, I expect the game style of the 2H (more open) will still be ok for him. Looks to be a 120 scorer when fully back. Unfortunately we don't know if this back injury is going to slow down his recovery.

If he turns it around its 200k lost and 2 trades because we will want him back. If he doeant return to premo scoring its an obvious win to trade him but again i don't thi k thats likley. Its only 1 trade for the people who avoided him at the start.

Biggest winners are those that didn't start with him, however, very few would not have been hit by one of Neale, Rowell, Danger, Caldwell, Green, Fyfe or a general host of underperforming premiums to date.

Its a common misconception that trading a premo out that you get back later costs 2 trades. It only costs 1 as when you trade him back in as an upgrade, you would have had to use that trade regardless on any other player you traded in as the upgrade, whether that be neale or not.

Interesting way to look at it. Guess because I went to Tex I see it as 2 trades, however, the difference is I am doing it to make money with high certainty at an accelerated level early in the season. 80% chance it makes $150k - $300k gain pre doing the trade given respective BE of both players. Even still, wasn't the easiest call and was tempting to trade Danger, however, I was then reliant on tex performing plus enhanced scoring for 1-2 rounds prior to having spent the Neale loose change.

 

[McLovin]

If Neale can't put in a more complete performance next round after a 9 day break, there's clearly a bit more going on than just soreness or coming into the season underdone.

 

[Socrates2]

If Neale can't put in a more complete performance next round after a 9 day break, there's clearly a bit more going on than just soreness or coming into the season underdone.

He's walking around the ground and when he gets the ball he's a sitting duck for a hard tackle putting further pressure on his back injury.

 

[PC]

My 2c incoming -

Neale will turn it around, he is the reigning Brownlow medalist after all. When and how much does he turn are the questions.

Has he been an unmitigated disaster for those that own him? - absolutely yes. He has scored 241 points over 3 rds, for an avg of 80 at a cost of about $9k per point. That is terrible in anyone's language.

 

[poopingHindi]

My 2c incoming -

Neale will turn it around, he is the reigning Brownlow medalist after all. When and how much does he turn are the questions.

If it was just a form slump then I’d have more faith but it appears to be at least somewhat injury related and who knows how long that could linger for

 

[Socrates2]

'I had a scan, it wasn’t a great result’: Lions star reveals concerning back injury

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...n/news-story/35c31e5c1a0c0473d3a35bf24722006f

 

[Impromptu]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1377773381911638017

 

[Shaunpro1]

If you get scanned and its a bad result how would you be cleared to play? Surely its one or the other.

 

[Socrates2]

If you get scanned and its a bad result how would you be cleared to play? Surely its one or the other.

You can play with broken ribs if you want, you don't need to be cleared to play, that's only for concussions.

 

[Socrates2]

I think what happened is he played midfield until the pain killing injection wore off, then they plonked him in the forward pocket after that.

 

[Courtesans]

I kept him, have to suck it up. At least he is playing. Break will do him good.

 

[Rowsus]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1377773381911638017

Had I known this much before the game, I would have traded him (to Lloyd).
Having held him, I will continue to hold him, until we see what fork in the road he takes.