Position SC 2021: Defender Discussion

[pizza safety]

He went 94 last year with a slow start, and is getting more kick outs this year.

Yeah just a personal preference or my reading of that type of player. I don't trust key defenders as supercoach players, they seem to struggle to sustain that kind of average and scoring long term, even when on kick outs. May could average well this year but I feel like there's an element of risk that he will regress, as I would classify key defenders in general as falling into that category. Also has a very long history of averaging in the 80's at best, albeit at the Suns.

 

[pizza safety]

Hurley, Rance and even Scott Thompson are all players who looked like they could be 95+ average players as key defenders, only for it to prove unsustainable, not many other examples of players who have appeared capable. Harris Andrews did appear capable as well, and he has proved mostly incapable.

 

[Shannon]

For those like me that have Kosi at D6 currently, hawks play WCE this weekend - both Gov & Barrass will miss again so expect Edwards (very raw/ got exposed on the weekend) & Oscar Allen to play as the key defenders. Think Kosi should score decently again this week v our inexperienced key defenders.

 

[pizza safety]

For those like me that have Kosi at D6 currently, hawks play WCE this weekend - both Gov & Barrass will miss again so expect Edwards (very raw/ got exposed on the weekend) & Oscar Allen to play as the key defenders. Think Kosi should score decently again this week v our inexperienced key defenders.

I think I'll be playing Frederick on field over him, might be the wrong decision to leave him on my bench for the 3rd week in a row but we'll see lol

 

[Hawk41]

For those like me that have Kosi at D6 currently, hawks play WCE this weekend - both Gov & Barrass will miss again so expect Edwards (very raw/ got exposed on the weekend) & Oscar Allen to play as the key defenders. Think Kosi should score decently again this week v our inexperienced key defenders.

Just need the hawk mids to kick the ball to him and give him a chance.
Looks bloody good when he gets just a 50/50 crack at a mark.

 

[BomberSam]

Thanks for that

This is what I would look at doing, making an aggressive play for a unique premium who is in good form.

Move Laird back to defence through Sharp.

Trade Cox (looks maxed out) to Frederick (123K) who is set to make serious cash. Either Frederick or Kosi play at D6/ favour Frederick with his role - maybe you can use Highmore if not named to loop?

Then trade Rowe (maxed out) to McCluggage via Macrae. McCluggage is 573K currently & owned by just 2.7% of coaches with a 3 round rolling average of 128.3 - in some serious form lately, runs out games very well/suited to the new rules & less rotations with his running power. Lions play their final 4 games of the season at home also btw so can see him finishing the season strongly.

Hope that helps.

I'm liking the theory and I probably will do something similar. I don't think it will be McCluggage though. He's in ripping form and I love the suggestion, it just doesn't feel like a good pick. We all know when a pick doesn't feel right, sometimes we don't even know why. I think I'll find another alternative. Maybe a Boak.

 

[wogitalia]

I'm liking the theory and I probably will do something similar. I don't think it will be McCluggage though. He's in ripping form and I love the suggestion, it just doesn't feel like a good pick. We all know when a pick doesn't feel right, sometimes we don't even know why. I think I'll find another alternative. Maybe a Boak.

Haha it's funny how different we can see things, I went Clug 2 weeks ago instead of Neale (and a couple of others) and loving it. That said, I do think the tags are coming as he's so clearly Brisbane's best player right now and he's primarily outside, so very susceptible type.

I'm actually very afraid because Merrett, Clug and Walsh are all going to cop some heat, so important to their sides and obvious targets right now, especially Walsh!

Hurley, Rance and even Scott Thompson are all players who looked like they could be 95+ average players as key defenders, only for it to prove unsustainable, not many other examples of players who have appeared capable. Harris Andrews did appear capable as well, and he has proved mostly incapable.

Not so sure about that. Hurley averaged 94.5 and 102 in the two seasons he was genuinely fit.

Rance averaged 97 and 98.5 in 2015 and 2016.

Even Scott Thompson had a year where he averaged 98, do not remember that season

Last year we had Ridley, Sicily, Ryan and Howe all go past 100, all taking kick-ins, and then May, Haynes and Blicavs all go 94+. Throw in Mills and Stewart who both played a lot as 3rd talls and you've got a couple more guys playing KP type roles in that range.

Mays ticks the kick-ins and intercept marking boxes, he'll have crap games and he'll have great games but he should average 95+ with his elite kicking and contested style. My bigger worry with May is his durability, he's got a pretty terrible history prior to last year's shortened season. At this point of the season it's high risk to be going for speculative value with durability issues as a combo.

That durability is one of two areas that Daniel has him well covered in, the other being scoring history, though it's pretty hard to make a case for Daniel on current form against May. Realistically though Daniel has had one absolute mare, one bad game against GWS and a game he kicked poorly in against West Coast but was otherwise actually quite good statistically. If I needed a defensive upgrade he'd be very hard to go past right now but can totally see the May element, especially for those who Daniel torched already this year!

That said, unless you've got Ridley, I'd be waiting until next week. Ridley at 510k is, imo, a far better buy than Daniel and May at 410k. Throw in that these 4 rookie defenders might be the last 4 we get and it makes sense to go them as well!

 

[wogitalia]

How are we feeling about Shorty at the moment? Obviously had a couple of very poor scores then bounced back in remarkable fashion.

Short is in approx. 80% of teams inside the top 1000 (same for top 100). I'm currently sitting at rank 183.

Should I grab him at 480k to solidify my rank on the pack? Or is it fairly safe to bet against him with a Houston (460k odd) or even a May (408k)? Can also afford to watch both Short and Houston for another week as they both have 110 breakevens, and get Scott/Facrae out of M8 instead.

I'd be shading Short for sure if you don't have him.

He was solid value to start the season as a guy who should score high 90s to low 100s, priced at 92ish now so minimal value there. Houli back is a negative and I reckon he does well to hold the average from here.

I'd much rather take a chance on Daniel at 70k less if I was going to be punting value.

Looking at your side the clear target is Lloyd for mine given you've got 4.5 premium defenders already and Cumming is realistically going to the best available when it comes time for him to go.

Personally think you should be targeting a midfield upgrade though as that Scott/Macrae/Rowe M8 spot is by far the weakest spot on the field right now.

That's a ripper side mate, you're in with a really good shot with a bit of luck!

 

[pizza safety]

Haha it's funny how different we can see things, I went Clug 2 weeks ago instead of Neale (and a couple of others) and loving it. That said, I do think the tags are coming as he's so clearly Brisbane's best player right now and he's primarily outside, so very susceptible type.

I'm actually very afraid because Merrett, Clug and Walsh are all going to cop some heat, so important to their sides and obvious targets right now, especially Walsh!



Not so sure about that. Hurley averaged 94.5 and 102 in the two seasons he was genuinely fit.

Rance averaged 97 and 98.5 in 2015 and 2016.

Even Scott Thompson had a year where he averaged 98, do not remember that season

Last year we had Ridley, Sicily, Ryan and Howe all go past 100, all taking kick-ins, and then May, Haynes and Blicavs all go 94+. Throw in Mills and Stewart who both played a lot as 3rd talls and you've got a couple more guys playing KP type roles in that range.

Mays ticks the kick-ins and intercept marking boxes, he'll have crap games and he'll have great games but he should average 95+ with his elite kicking and contested style. My bigger worry with May is his durability, he's got a pretty terrible history prior to last year's shortened season. At this point of the season it's high risk to be going for speculative value with durability issues as a combo.

That durability is one of two areas that Daniel has him well covered in, the other being scoring history, though it's pretty hard to make a case for Daniel on current form against May. Realistically though Daniel has had one absolute mare, one bad game against GWS and a game he kicked poorly in against West Coast but was otherwise actually quite good statistically. If I needed a defensive upgrade he'd be very hard to go past right now but can totally see the May element, especially for those who Daniel torched already this year!

That said, unless you've got Ridley, I'd be waiting until next week. Ridley at 510k is, imo, a far better buy than Daniel and May at 410k. Throw in that these 4 rookie defenders might be the last 4 we get and it makes sense to go them as well!

Yeah I would be going Daniel over May as well, he is more proven as an elite scorer and is just in a role I trust more. Ridley is the one to make sure you get next week.

I know, Rance and Hurley could only manage it for 2 years, which proves the point I was making, you can't manage it for very long as a key defender and years of 95+ averages are rare. If May is similar, he is on the precipice of not being able to average 95+, one way or the other.

Ridley, Mills, Stewart, Sicily, Ryan and Howe don't play the same role as true Key defenders, they have all played a loose interceptor / rebounding defender role, which you can certainly score well in. When Sicily was utilised as a true key defender in the 2nd half of 2019 his scoring took a hit.

There are just very few examples of key defenders scoring consistently above 95 and the best examples we have only did it for two seasons. Blicavs and Haynes are demonstrating that this is the case again.

 

[BomberSam]

I'd be shading Short for sure if you don't have him.

He was solid value to start the season as a guy who should score high 90s to low 100s, priced at 92ish now so minimal value there. Houli back is a negative and I reckon he does well to hold the average from here.

I'd much rather take a chance on Daniel at 70k less if I was going to be punting value.

Looking at your side the clear target is Lloyd for mine given you've got 4.5 premium defenders already and Cumming is realistically going to the best available when it comes time for him to go.

Personally think you should be targeting a midfield upgrade though as that Scott/Macrae/Rowe M8 spot is by far the weakest spot on the field right now.

That's a ripper side mate, you're in with a really good shot with a bit of luck!

Absolute legend. I appreciate your feedback. I reckon you're right and I'll pass on Short. I reckon I am somewhat likely to grab Houston next week, targeting Lloyd with my final defence upgrade, either by trading Cumming or with Laird to stay in my midfield. Could also do both of those things and potentially grab Whitfield later on too.

Now to decide which mid I go this week! Titch and Jelly both potentially great value picks. Guthrie a nice POD with an alright price tag. Boak incredible value at his current average but with no history at these heights and as a 33 year old. Probably won't pay 600k+ for Lyons or Bont.

 

[Zimmer]

Bit concerning to see how much the Bombers shared the kick ins on Sunday - Re Ridley’s monopoly on them. Interesting to see the numbers. Reckon Redman took most.

 

[blue dreamer]

Said it last week and again now.
Can't believe Daniel Rich is not even in the conversation here.
Having said that I don't have him and am looking for more value myself but the new rules are made for him and should a low score get into his 3 week cycle my interest would leap.

 

[jel]

Said it last week and again now.
Can't believe Daniel Rich is not even in the conversation here.
Having said that I don't have him and am looking for more value myself but the new rules are made for him and should a low score get into his 3 week cycle my interest would leap.

I still have 3rd degree burns from the last time I had him.
It would take a massive leap for me to pick him again.
I only rate him at 85 - 90, but he looks to be having a purple patch to start this year. Maybe 2021 is his time?

 

[THCLT]

TOP 10 priced DEF report card v The Value Plays

 

[freowho]

TOP 10 priced DEF report card v The Value Plays

View attachment 29545

Annoyed I didn't start Cumming and Allir Allir. The midpricers are having a big influence this year. Not just with cash but stability and keeping the potatoes off the ground.

 

[wogitalia]

Said it last week and again now.
Can't believe Daniel Rich is not even in the conversation here.
Having said that I don't have him and am looking for more value myself but the new rules are made for him and should a low score get into his 3 week cycle my interest would leap.

I very strongly considered him as a starting pick (went Doch & Short instead) but now he's pretty fairly priced so would need a couple of lower scores to tank the price. For mine with his history he's hard to pay top dollar for, I think at this point his average is about right for where I thought he could get and don't see any good reason to expect him to increase. Surprised that opposition sides seem happy to let him do his thing as well, would have thought he'd got attention by now.

End of the day you can get Ridley for less next week and Lloyd for similar, I have a very hard time going Rich over those two. Throw in the May/Daniel value this week, who can both average that 103 range from here and it's very hard to make a buy case.

Would have been an exceptional starting choice!

 

[pizza safety]

Hurley, Rance and even Scott Thompson are all players who looked like they could be 95+ average players as key defenders, only for it to prove unsustainable, not many other examples of players who have appeared capable. Harris Andrews did appear capable as well, and he has proved mostly incapable.

Should have clarified that I meant that they can't keep it up "long term" and i know that all three of these players have averaged 95+ for a season (Hurley + Rance twice, Scott Thompson once). My point regarding May is that he could have another season average around 95 this year (like he did last year) or go 95+ but that history suggests that it is hard for key defenders to keep that scoring up and at some point, just like Hurley and Rance he will probably regress. The question is just whether that will happen this year or next. Whilst the pick could work and I won't be surprised if it does, I see an element of risk around regression, which isn't the case for quite a few other defenders.

The biggest reason for why he might regress is just role and the volatility of your role when you are a key defender who is suddenly being used as an outlet and who is playing with freedom, and is also a very capable one on one defender. In 2017 Hurley basically had the same role as May has this year, playing loose in defence but also 1 on 1, taking kick outs and being a common outlet out of defence for the side. In 2018 Hurley eventually lost this kind of role, stopped getting the cheap possessions, and started to play more strictly as a lockdown defender. His elite scoring never came back.

Someone like Howe has for the most part played more of a loose intercepting / half-back role at Collingwood when scoring well and not been a major lockdown defender, at times he has played more lockdown and his scoring has been a bit worse. Sicily is similar to this and his scoring dropped when he played more of a strict lockdown role in late 2019. Both of these players have mostly been classified as general defenders by champion data and sometimes as key defenders. Atm both are classified as general defenders on the AFL website and May as a key defender. I see May as more similar to Hurley than these two players in that he has historically been more of a "key defender" and subsequently is more likely to go back to that old role where he is not afforded the same kind of freedom than those types of players are.

I'm not saying May is like all other key defenders but that his role could change. He is not like McGovern and Andrews who are two players who have flirted with premium status, who haven't played the same outlet role as May is currently playing. I'm just saying he might be another Hurley, depending on whether they keep him in the same role. Even in a given week his role might change, which is why he might have only scored 7 in the 31 minutes he played against Geelong on Tomahawk. (FWIW May seems to be splaying a role much more akin to 102avg Hurley than 98avg Rance).

At a great price which makes him an alright pick up and he can keep it up (not saying I'd be at all surprised), but I'd just be a bit aware that he could drop off. At his price he might be a better option than Short for some people, although I'd prefer Daniel at May's price as well. However, I don't think May or Houston are better than Short as pure scorers going forward (Houli or no Houli).

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Should have clarified that I meant that they can't keep it up "long term" and i know that all three of these players have averaged 95+ for a season (Hurley + Rance twice, Scott Thompson once). My point regarding May is that he could have another season average around 95 this year (like he did last year) or go 95+ but that history suggests that it is hard for key defenders to keep that scoring up and at some point, just like Hurley and Rance he will probably regress. The question is just whether that will happen this year or next. Whilst the pick could work and I won't be surprised if it does, I see an element of risk around regression, which isn't the case for quite a few other defenders.

The biggest reason for why he might regress is just role and the volatility of your role when you are a key defender who is suddenly being used as an outlet and who is playing with freedom, and is also a very capable one on one defender. In 2017 Hurley basically had the same role as May has this year, playing loose in defence but also 1 on 1, taking kick outs and being a common outlet out of defence for the side. In 2018 Hurley eventually lost this kind of role, stopped getting the cheap possessions, and started to play more strictly as a lockdown defender. His elite scoring never came back.

Someone like Howe has for the most part played more of a loose intercepting / half-back role at Collingwood when scoring well and not been a major lockdown defender, at times he has played more lockdown and his scoring has been a bit worse. Sicily is similar to this and his scoring dropped when he played more of a strict lockdown role in late 2019. Both of these players have mostly been classified as general defenders by champion data and sometimes as key defenders. Atm both are classified as general defenders on the AFL website and May as a key defender. I see May as more similar to Hurley than these two players in that he has historically been more of a "key defender" and subsequently is more likely to go back to that old role where he is not afforded the same kind of freedom than those types of players are.

I'm not saying May is like all other key defenders but that his role could change. He is not like McGovern and Andrews who are two players who have flirted with premium status, who haven't played the same outlet role as May is currently playing. I'm just saying he might be another Hurley, depending on whether they keep him in the same role. Even in a given week his role might change, which is why he might have only scored 7 in the 31 minutes he played against Geelong on Tomahawk. (FWIW May seems to be splaying a role much more akin to 102avg Hurley than 98avg Rance).

At a great price which makes him an alright pick up and he can keep it up (not saying I'd be at all surprised), but I'd just be a bit aware that he could drop off. At his price he might be a better option than Short for some people, although I'd prefer Daniel at May's price as well. However, I don't think May or Houston are better than Short as pure scorers going forward (Houli or no Houli).

All fair points, it is why May even intra season sees such volatility in his scoring. suits overall more than league. Issue for Daniel is he can get attention whereas I dont think May gets targets as drawn away from the contest as much, like some interceptors.

Funny that Daniel is targeted yet Short, Rich and others are not.

 

[pizza safety]

All fair points, it is why May even intra season sees such volatility in his scoring. suits overall more than league. Issue for Daniel is he can get attention whereas I dont think May gets targets as drawn away from the contest as much, like some interceptors.

Funny that Daniel is targeted yet Short, Rich and others are not.

Yeah pretty much my thinking too, I don't completely dislike the pick at all considering his price. It's just something to point out with a player who is currently playing pretty loose down back and getting cheapies, who is also a very good one on one defender and who isn't guaranteed to be used as an outlet moving forward. He is on the surface very similar to prime Hurley at the moment and we saw Hurley's role change. If his role stays the same I think he will go 95+, but with some inconsistency.


Yeah definitely something to be worried about re Daniel versus the others. I swear I saw some Brisbane players following him around the week he scored 20, but this was never mentioned. I think why he might be tagged could be that he wins a fair bit of his own ball versus Short and gets a lot more disposals versus Rich. However, despite being a better short kick than those two he is nowhere near as damaging a long kick, so it's not totally explainable.

 

[Herbie66]

All fair points, it is why May even intra season sees such volatility in his scoring. suits overall more than league. Issue for Daniel is he can get attention whereas I dont think May gets targets as drawn away from the contest as much, like some interceptors.

Funny that Daniel is targeted yet Short, Rich and others are not.

Be interesting to see how many of Rich & Short's kicks actually hit a team mate or are they predominantly long to a contest or space ?

Certainly Short is the better run & carry player out of all 3 though.

On face value would think Daniel is a lot more accurate and damaging by foot even if he is only gaining 25-35 metres , hence why I can see him getting tagged.

Give him time and space his vision is incredible and kicking skills normally elite