Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Thanks Rowsus. I thought it might be a bit tricky but 17 was still higher than I thought and as you say some may have crossed the 200k line and dropped back. Interesting that 19 rookies fell into the 150k to 200k bracket. I would have thought more in this group and less in the over 200k bracket but they were almost the same.
 

tracygrims

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One last point, don't get caught over estimating the money making ability of your Rookies, especially a D8 Rookie. Last year Goodes and Terlich made just over $300k, if you manged to keep them long enough, but there is no way you had them sitting at D8. D5 or D6 was much more likely. Laird eventually made $210k, and after him, it drops off a bit. The point is, your D8 will rarely make $200k, let alone $300k. It is more likely a long, slow $125-150k for your D8.
I'm not sure exactly what freowho meant in his original comment, but I took it to mean the amount of cash generated by the D8 position over the entire year.
If you downgrade that player in round 8 for 150k and then again in round 16 for 125k that makes 275k. This of course is costing you two trades, but a hypothetical 125-150k profit for one trade is getting close to a sum you'd be happy with.
If you had a doughnut sitting at D8, you might be either forced into making trades for closer to 100k than 150k - or alternatively making your trades later in the season and missing out on valuable upgrades and points along the way.
 

Rowsus

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I'm not sure exactly what freowho meant in his original comment, but I took it to mean the amount of cash generated by the D8 position over the entire year.
If you downgrade that player in round 8 for 150k and then again in round 16 for 125k that makes 275k. This of course is costing you two trades, but a hypothetical 125-150k profit for one trade is getting close to a sum you'd be happy with.
If you had a doughnut sitting at D8, you might be either forced into making trades for closer to 100k than 150k - or alternatively making your trades later in the season and missing out on valuable upgrades and points along the way.
Good point, tracy. I got caught not looking beyond one cycle, where we should reasonably expect to get two cycles through D8.
Well spotted. :)
 

Rowsus

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Had an epiphany after your reply Rowsus and found the info I was looking for re rookies making over 200k. Happy to share data but I am unable to insert the table I created. Anyone help me with that?
What format is the data in? If its XL, PDF, jpeg or something similar, email it to me, and I will insert in the post above for you.
Otherwise you can use something like photobucket to insert it.
 

GoldenBoys

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As to Captains, I used a very simple rule last season. If Ablett played first, and scored under 125, I went to my other choice (Pendles etc). If Ablett played second, and my VC scored under 130, I went to Ablett.
G'day Rowsus, very interested by this comment, I used a similar theory last year, albeit slightly more conservative. Would like to know how many times this worked out in the positive for you? I think from memory I was on the right side of the ledger about 75% of the time?
 

Rowsus

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G'day Rowsus, very interested by this comment, I used a similar theory last year, albeit slightly more conservative. Would like to know how many times this worked out in the positive for you? I think from memory I was on the right side of the ledger about 75% of the time?
Hi GB, I can only go by memory too, but I think of the 2 players I chose to loophole that week, it worked in all bar 4 or maybe 5 weeks, so around that same 75% mark.
 

Rowsus

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Thanks Rowsus. I thought it might be a bit tricky but 17 was still higher than I thought and as you say some may have crossed the 200k line and dropped back. Interesting that 19 rookies fell into the 150k to 200k bracket. I would have thought more in this group and less in the over 200k bracket but they were almost the same.
Had an epiphany after your reply Rowsus and found the info I was looking for re rookies making over 200k. Happy to share data but I am unable to insert the table I created. Anyone help me with that?
THE FOLLOWING HAS BEEN POSTED ON BEHALF OF Manikato1​

The table is simple. Once they hit 200k everyone stayed over it except Mayes who dropped under but made it back by the end of the season. Mayes was also the most expensive and took the longest to get to the 200k mark. Given this years pricing of rookies not sure if that has significance. It takes 7.75 games to get to the 200k. Only 3 players got they under Rd 10 and that was what interested me most. I will probably look at the 150k -200k bracket as well as are more likely to be traded as cash cows.
 
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THE FOLLOWING HAS BEEN POSTED ON BEHALF OF Manikato1​

Great table, thanks Manikato and Rowsus

From that the top money makers take 5 - 7 games which will be great this year with the early byes assuming we all pick the correct rookies
 
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OPEN QUESTION.
I will post this in the strategy thread as well but I wanted Rowsus' opinion along with everyone else.

My question is posed in a "perfect world" were you can allocate your trades to what purpose they will serve throughout the year. I have gone with four options - Correction, Downgrade, Upgrade and Injury

I have looked at my trades from last year and compared them to the trades made by The Dimmawitts. Trading is obv where the game is won and lost (with a bit of luck thrown in) and it is crucial how they are used. I remember looking at Johns Dimmawitts about round 8 and was amazed at how good his side was so early so i wanted to analyse



My question is how should we use our trades? I have done up a table with 30 trades and want peoples opinion on how many trades i have allocated to each type and if they think it is realistic

 
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Rowsus

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OPEN QUESTION.
My question is posed in a "perfect world" were you can allocate your trades to what purpose they will serve throughout the year. I have gone with four options - Correction, Downgrade, Upgrade and Injury
I actually think you've got it pretty close to spot on. :)
4 Corrective, 5 Injury, 12 Downgrade and 9 Upgrade sounds about right.
 
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I'm not sure exactly what freowho meant in his original comment, but I took it to mean the amount of cash generated by the D8 position over the entire year.
Thanks tracygrims. I was thinking about the worth of D8 for the whole year and starting with a doughnut at D8 for the captains loophole and a doghnut at R4 for an emergency loophole between Sandi and HMac. But as Rowsus pointed out your are bound to have a doughnut somewhere on the bench because of injuries or omissions anyway so there is no need to manufacture one.
I had a look at last years draw and the captains loophole versus a fixed captain (Ablett) and I reckon it was worth 360 points. I used the captains average as the yes or no trigger to use the vice captain. I assumed Ablett and Pendlebury and in their absence or playing against each other chose griffen and jelwood. There were 8 occasions where it was a positive result and only 2 occasions where it was negative. If I get time I might look at previous years, however I am thinking that it was a good year with 2 standout players whose games were timed really well for the loophole. Given the Captain earns double points I will initially use R4 for the captains loophole and as another doughnut appears use R4 as an emergency Ruck loophole.
Just out of curiosity I went through last years draw again and tried a Captains strategy of picking the best player without an obvious tag versus a fixed captain. It was a disaster. I picked the wrong guy too many times for it to be worthwhile.
 

Philzsay

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In a perfect world I would have 15 downgrades, 15 upgrades to end up with a squad of 30 premiums.

Imagine having someone like Dean Cox as your R4! :)


Edit - not sure how this would work mathematically with the last upgrade/downgrade to end with 30 premiums but hey its just fantasy so I won't worry about it.
 
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tracygrims

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fwiw, Having only 9 upgrades means you need to have at least 13 keepers in your team by the comencement of round 3!
 
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And here is the 150k table. I suspect there would be a number of players in this bracket who went above the 150k and then dropped below it. The list only has the ones that stayed above the 150k at the end of the season. Decided to include Pittard and Gorringe although they were not true rookies but were priced as cheap as a rookie. I added position this time as well. Take what you like out of it.
 
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fwiw, Having only 9 upgrades means you need to have at least 13 keepers in your team by the comencement of round 3!
I agree and this is at the heart of why i posted this and posed the question. Ideally we would have more upgrades, but how do we get this? We need cash to upgrade and this is usually generated from downgrading players

so from my proposed trades (4 correction, 12 downgrades, 9 upgrades and 5 for injury) where do we get the extra upgrades from? and does this come down to "skilled luck" in picking the correct rookies and initial team needing minimal corrections and being limited with injuries to your selected players throughout the year or can we generate cash in a more effective way to allow for these upgrades to occur?
 

Bobbie

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So Rowsus, just wondering if you would be able to provide a statistical analysis and report on Sloane? (Saw your reply and subtle suggestion in the midfield thread!). Cheers!
 
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