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Discussion SC 2021: Rookie Discussion
- Thread starter Brettthejett
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One to keep an eye on, Ely Smith and Nakia Cockatoo coming back through the VFL:
View: https://twitter.com/brisbanelions/status/1392333213117292546?s=19
It's about balancing the strength of the rookies, their potential cash generation, job security (especially approaching byes) in comparison to ~40 points in the current week from the upgrade.
Basically it's about timing the rookies, premiums are far more available than rookies, the likelihood of finding a premium midfielder at 550k this week, next week or in three weeks time is pretty equal, the odds of finding a good rookie downgrade is genuinely random and not great, most of the top rookie types have already debuted at this point of the season.
This week and next week are a classic example:
Rookies on the bubble this week - RCD, Byrnes, Poulter, Sweet, Owies, Sproule, Edwards, Jeka and Henry.
Rookies on the bubble next week - B. Williams (193k), Khamis and Foley.
I think you can make a legitimate case that there are 6 rookies this week that are better cases than the 3 next week. Given that these downgrades are only not going to be important in the byes if they're so good you've already traded them the rookies are extra important. A good rookie pick now should be worth more than a premium over a rookie this week during the bye rounds.
The only downsides of double down is the lost points and the potential that a rookie you think is a must have (Jones, Highmore or Macrae maybe?) gets in next week and you end up going a 3rd down to get them. Personally I'd say Jones is the only guy who I think fits that criteria so not terribly worried on that front, obviously if that happens and you commit to the rookie then it's double the lost points.
Ultimately comes down to the comp of your own team, if you've got great cover right now and don't need the double down, don't do it, but this week for mine is a textbook example of a double down week, I'd say this is close to the strongest group of rookie downgrades we've had with RCD suddenly having very strong JS and role (for a rookie) to his bye and both Byrnes and Poulter also genuinely playing well. Owies I'm more speculative as Martin and Murphy are so close and he's going to be in a dogfight for the spot, Sweet has Martin, even if I think he probably offers more at this point, Sproule is probably holding ground for Hogan after a good game, Edwards definitely just holding the fort and Jeka/Henry looking incredibly limited scorers.
Basically it's about timing the rookies, premiums are far more available than rookies, the likelihood of finding a premium midfielder at 550k this week, next week or in three weeks time is pretty equal, the odds of finding a good rookie downgrade is genuinely random and not great, most of the top rookie types have already debuted at this point of the season.
This week and next week are a classic example:
Rookies on the bubble this week - RCD, Byrnes, Poulter, Sweet, Owies, Sproule, Edwards, Jeka and Henry.
Rookies on the bubble next week - B. Williams (193k), Khamis and Foley.
I think you can make a legitimate case that there are 6 rookies this week that are better cases than the 3 next week. Given that these downgrades are only not going to be important in the byes if they're so good you've already traded them the rookies are extra important. A good rookie pick now should be worth more than a premium over a rookie this week during the bye rounds.
The only downsides of double down is the lost points and the potential that a rookie you think is a must have (Jones, Highmore or Macrae maybe?) gets in next week and you end up going a 3rd down to get them. Personally I'd say Jones is the only guy who I think fits that criteria so not terribly worried on that front, obviously if that happens and you commit to the rookie then it's double the lost points.
Ultimately comes down to the comp of your own team, if you've got great cover right now and don't need the double down, don't do it, but this week for mine is a textbook example of a double down week, I'd say this is close to the strongest group of rookie downgrades we've had with RCD suddenly having very strong JS and role (for a rookie) to his bye and both Byrnes and Poulter also genuinely playing well. Owies I'm more speculative as Martin and Murphy are so close and he's going to be in a dogfight for the spot, Sweet has Martin, even if I think he probably offers more at this point, Sproule is probably holding ground for Hogan after a good game, Edwards definitely just holding the fort and Jeka/Henry looking incredibly limited scorers.
Great explanation @wogitalia. Always looked ahead but made decisions based on immediate needs/scores as reality always strikes and impacts plans. Kicks me in the guts come back half of the season as I either run out of trades, cash or both.
What do you think of Fredericks JS, do you think Jones will replace him?
What do you think of Fredericks JS, do you think Jones will replace him?
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No expert, however, thought Bonner back this week. Jones listed as 1-2 weeks, thought Ken suggested he may be back around the byes. May need some SANFL conditioning. Houston a test. Question if other players come in, does Bergman go back. Just think D7 has to be higher quality JS given many carrying Highmore. Otherwise one injury and you could be eating donuts in defence.
I have Butts D6 and Murphy/Highmore. In two weeks, I would only do a Butts to LJones (if in) if Murphy was playing, to give me some insurance.
I have Butts D6 and Murphy/Highmore. In two weeks, I would only do a Butts to LJones (if in) if Murphy was playing, to give me some insurance.
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Yeah, that D7 is doing my head in. I’ve got Frederick/Highmore which I can see being problematic. Cant see me getting away with that for much longer, have 6 premium rookies but Laird is currently in mids with Kosi D6. Would like to get Kosi to D7 but struggling to sideways a Fredrick/Highmore due to low trades.
I thought Frederick was very good his first two games and he still went out so that's a pretty bad sign.
Houston is probably his best chance of playing but there's a lot of competition for those spots.
He's a chance but I wouldn't be trading him in this week. I'd say Khamis offers about the same prospect, if not quite as strong a scorer, next week for a cheaper price if you're genuinely desperate for a D8 type.
Tough spot as there don't seem many on the horizon with Jones and Highmore probably the other picks down back for rookie targets and Jones has to get back first and Highmore seems 75% dead man walking.
Houston is probably his best chance of playing but there's a lot of competition for those spots.
He's a chance but I wouldn't be trading him in this week. I'd say Khamis offers about the same prospect, if not quite as strong a scorer, next week for a cheaper price if you're genuinely desperate for a D8 type.
Tough spot as there don't seem many on the horizon with Jones and Highmore probably the other picks down back for rookie targets and Jones has to get back first and Highmore seems 75% dead man walking.
I'd normally say this is ridiculous because you should put players in the position they have the biggest advantage in but...
This year there are a lot of really high value targets down back with May, Maynard, Ridley, Daniel, Whitfield and Moore sticking out like sore thumbs as super value D6 or better options that are way better value than the midfielder equivalents right now, I'd argue there is a very real case for Laird at 105ppg at M8 and say May at 440k averaging 100 as opposed to paying possibly 560k for Steele to average 110 at M8 or guys like Jelly at 510k to average 105 (maybe!) in a season where getting some value definitely has some worth. Ridley as a potential 110+ guy at 475k just makes this even stronger. The extra 120k is pretty close to the return we're getting on the above average rookies this year with only the very good rookies actually beating that and I'd wager that a one weak advanced upgrade is going to just about match a 5ppg difference on the M8 spot, especially if it's used to get you bench cover where you otherwise wont have it without burning a trade.
I just don't see the value alternatives right now in the mids, I'd wager very little on Kelly to outscore Ridley from here and he's 20k more right now for example.
To be fair, this is a value oriented strategy and not what I'd be going for teams who only need 5 or 6 upgrades from here and have good cash generation. I'd be backing the Petracca, Oliver, Steele or higher guys if you can get to them, Steele especially with Jones out for an extended period.
I'd also be strong considering Highmore as a guy to dump to another rookie for the r14 bye or even earlier in that period where you can get full reward for the sideways trade by avoiding a donut!
This year there are a lot of really high value targets down back with May, Maynard, Ridley, Daniel, Whitfield and Moore sticking out like sore thumbs as super value D6 or better options that are way better value than the midfielder equivalents right now, I'd argue there is a very real case for Laird at 105ppg at M8 and say May at 440k averaging 100 as opposed to paying possibly 560k for Steele to average 110 at M8 or guys like Jelly at 510k to average 105 (maybe!) in a season where getting some value definitely has some worth. Ridley as a potential 110+ guy at 475k just makes this even stronger. The extra 120k is pretty close to the return we're getting on the above average rookies this year with only the very good rookies actually beating that and I'd wager that a one weak advanced upgrade is going to just about match a 5ppg difference on the M8 spot, especially if it's used to get you bench cover where you otherwise wont have it without burning a trade.
I just don't see the value alternatives right now in the mids, I'd wager very little on Kelly to outscore Ridley from here and he's 20k more right now for example.
To be fair, this is a value oriented strategy and not what I'd be going for teams who only need 5 or 6 upgrades from here and have good cash generation. I'd be backing the Petracca, Oliver, Steele or higher guys if you can get to them, Steele especially with Jones out for an extended period.
I'd also be strong considering Highmore as a guy to dump to another rookie for the r14 bye or even earlier in that period where you can get full reward for the sideways trade by avoiding a donut!
I offer a counter to this by putting up current averages:
RCD 59
Poulter 66
Sweet 61
Sproule 43
Edwards 52
Jeka 28
Henry 20
The last 2 if they keep up their averages will barely move in price.
Then the others are looking $30K to $50K increase which is important. BUT, if say this week you are targetting Caleb Daniel from a maxed out Kosi then Daniel himself is set to rise ~ $35K this round. Close to the same as the rookie. Rozee is another people might be looking at who is now set to jump ~$40K.
So it might be team specific and will depend on whether you are after a value uprade with a low BE because, if so, most of that list could be gotten next week for for the same extra money that the value premium might cost extra.
RCD 59
Poulter 66
Sweet 61
Sproule 43
Edwards 52
Jeka 28
Henry 20
The last 2 if they keep up their averages will barely move in price.
Then the others are looking $30K to $50K increase which is important. BUT, if say this week you are targetting Caleb Daniel from a maxed out Kosi then Daniel himself is set to rise ~ $35K this round. Close to the same as the rookie. Rozee is another people might be looking at who is now set to jump ~$40K.
So it might be team specific and will depend on whether you are after a value uprade with a low BE because, if so, most of that list could be gotten next week for for the same extra money that the value premium might cost extra.
Herbie66 have you given anymore consideration to Jordon Sweet. Like yourself, having the luxury of Mumford and Flynn I'm still considering Mumford (not playing) to Sweet and as Gawn bottoms out in 2 to 3 rounds he could almost be a straight swap. I still reckon Sweet could be as good a rookie as RCD or Poulter. Anyway just wondering if you have any recent thoughts on Sweet?
He's a classic example of I don't know why anyone would actually have him already... but at this point of the season if you've got a guy who's been injured twice and they still keep picking him then the job security if he can stay fit justifies the durability risk for a trade target who is just there as a hopeful donut cover for late season carnage, unless he was back this week or maybe next, the reality is that he's probably there to play in the byes and for the rest of the season.
You're focused on the wrong end of the equation though, you've picked 2 specific targets to try and counter the general theory, if you go one up one down this week then you're forced into one of the 3 next week options whose averages are 56 (at 193k), 39 and 3, so even less cash generation instead of that top 4 (of which you left Bynes out of for some reason).
On the flipside you've got Ridley, Williams, Lever, Whitfield, Vlastuin, Houston and a bunch of other defender options available that will drop price.
In short, Daniel is one of many, the rookies are few and far. Rozee and forwards the same.
Not for mine, Byrnes has a better bye than RCD but he's had a great role and it should be better and his bye is still ok. Poulter I don't think is impacted by Adams, he's very outside and was playing a bit of HB and wing last week, role was solid and has scored well so far.
I like Byrnes though but the DPP of Poulter has more value to me and I think RCD actually has the best 5 week job security and opportunity as well as role.
Byrnes absolutely could be the sneaky best option though and Sweet is very much in play, especially if Flynn is out but I'd definitely prefer if English was in and Sweet holds his spot than having English a week away and Martin a few as the potential blocks.
Biggest problem with Sweet is he offers almost nothing in the byes while, hopefully, the other guys this week all should. Martin and English will, barring a big lie on Martin's timeframe, be back by the r14 bye and Gawn and Grundy are taking the two spots until that.
Obviously changes a bit if you've not stumbled into the GG combo still despite the fantasy gods all but forcing people towards it!
You're focused on the wrong end of the equation though, you've picked 2 specific targets to try and counter the general theory, if you go one up one down this week then you're forced into one of the 3 next week options whose averages are 56 (at 193k), 39 and 3, so even less cash generation instead of that top 4 (of which you left Bynes out of for some reason).
On the flipside you've got Ridley, Williams, Lever, Whitfield, Vlastuin, Houston and a bunch of other defender options available that will drop price.
In short, Daniel is one of many, the rookies are few and far. Rozee and forwards the same.
Not for mine, Byrnes has a better bye than RCD but he's had a great role and it should be better and his bye is still ok. Poulter I don't think is impacted by Adams, he's very outside and was playing a bit of HB and wing last week, role was solid and has scored well so far.
I like Byrnes though but the DPP of Poulter has more value to me and I think RCD actually has the best 5 week job security and opportunity as well as role.
Byrnes absolutely could be the sneaky best option though and Sweet is very much in play, especially if Flynn is out but I'd definitely prefer if English was in and Sweet holds his spot than having English a week away and Martin a few as the potential blocks.
Biggest problem with Sweet is he offers almost nothing in the byes while, hopefully, the other guys this week all should. Martin and English will, barring a big lie on Martin's timeframe, be back by the r14 bye and Gawn and Grundy are taking the two spots until that.
Obviously changes a bit if you've not stumbled into the GG combo still despite the fantasy gods all but forcing people towards it!
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