Position SC 2021: Forward Discussion
- Thread starter THCLT
- Start date
- Joined
- 28 Dec 2016
- Messages
- 747
- Likes
- 3,842
- AFL Club
- Richmond
The forwards are depressing to look at.
I wish I had started Daniher but can't justify paying for him now.
Did Hind get injured at StKilda or just dropped? Why the poor game count?
I really don't want Heeney but he might end up in my team because I have to get potatoes off the ground. But I don't want to bring in a french "fried". Can he make it to his bye?
Where is CCJ?
I wish I had started Daniher but can't justify paying for him now.
Did Hind get injured at StKilda or just dropped? Why the poor game count?
I really don't want Heeney but he might end up in my team because I have to get potatoes off the ground. But I don't want to bring in a french "fried". Can he make it to his bye?
Where is CCJ?
He had a wrist operation at the end of 2019 but think he just couldn't get into the side. With Billings, Gresham, Butler, Lonie and a couple of other guys it's not the easiest small forward group to break in.
Does wear a lot of tape so imagine he's had shoulder issues in the past and as someone watching him closely he's got a bit of the Danger attention seeker hobble in every game.
I can't say a lot on him, I drafted him in all my draft leagues and ended up trading him in back in round 5 when Butters went down after regretting not picking him as a starter for 4 weeks.
Durability is probably the biggest concern and I'm not sure if it's valid or not. He'll have a few more 70s type games I imagine because the Dons do have several rebounders and it's just the nature of the role but he wins a lot of contested ball, runs and carries it brilliantly, generally uses it very well and has even been taking a couple of intercept marks a week.
I'd say he should end up in the 85-95 range, I'm not sure that's a great buy at current price, but if he can keep going like he did on the weekend then that range could move up 5-10 points, he was brilliant on the weekend. Bombers are playing a HB friendly style.
Basically reckon he's pretty much fairly priced right now so in other positions I'd say a "bad" buy but in the forwards this year, fairly valued is actually pretty good given the trainwreck it is. I reckon I'd probably stump up the 30k for Hawkins or take the Martin discount over him. Also think a fairly priced Zorko is a better buy as he's got a strong history of big back half finishes but Hind is a decent buy still.
I'm never a huge fan of paying fair price on unproven breakout players, there's the risk of sustainability that we don't know the answer to, especially guys who haven't played full seasons previously. When you get a discount that's mitigated but at fair price you take all the risk. Having said that, Hind is so dynamic I expect the Bombers will actually make an effort to use him more and more this season, he's probably their best kick I50 outside Zerrett and he's easily their best ball carrier.
Does wear a lot of tape so imagine he's had shoulder issues in the past and as someone watching him closely he's got a bit of the Danger attention seeker hobble in every game.
I can't say a lot on him, I drafted him in all my draft leagues and ended up trading him in back in round 5 when Butters went down after regretting not picking him as a starter for 4 weeks.
Durability is probably the biggest concern and I'm not sure if it's valid or not. He'll have a few more 70s type games I imagine because the Dons do have several rebounders and it's just the nature of the role but he wins a lot of contested ball, runs and carries it brilliantly, generally uses it very well and has even been taking a couple of intercept marks a week.
I'd say he should end up in the 85-95 range, I'm not sure that's a great buy at current price, but if he can keep going like he did on the weekend then that range could move up 5-10 points, he was brilliant on the weekend. Bombers are playing a HB friendly style.
Basically reckon he's pretty much fairly priced right now so in other positions I'd say a "bad" buy but in the forwards this year, fairly valued is actually pretty good given the trainwreck it is. I reckon I'd probably stump up the 30k for Hawkins or take the Martin discount over him. Also think a fairly priced Zorko is a better buy as he's got a strong history of big back half finishes but Hind is a decent buy still.
I'm never a huge fan of paying fair price on unproven breakout players, there's the risk of sustainability that we don't know the answer to, especially guys who haven't played full seasons previously. When you get a discount that's mitigated but at fair price you take all the risk. Having said that, Hind is so dynamic I expect the Bombers will actually make an effort to use him more and more this season, he's probably their best kick I50 outside Zerrett and he's easily their best ball carrier.
I'm seriously considering Daniel Lloyd from GWS 330.9k fwd, has gone 70 and 100. Previous form is nothing to write about, probably had his fair share of injuries. Role looks great, wing/half fwd. Less competition as from previous years, Daniels to WC, Toby Greene out for a month, could string a few nice games, has the round 12 bye too.
Daniels is injured. Finlayson was suspended but not a like for like move. Greene out probably actually hurts him as he now gets the top mid sized defender most likely.
Also have De Boer who was playing mostly at HF back soon, Haynes will take wing minutes any minute and Coniglio a month away. I quite like Lloyd but wouldn't consider him for a second.
At that price I'd much prefer Hogan, Heeney or De Goey or even Ladhams given it's probably a month punt anyway.
Also have De Boer who was playing mostly at HF back soon, Haynes will take wing minutes any minute and Coniglio a month away. I quite like Lloyd but wouldn't consider him for a second.
At that price I'd much prefer Hogan, Heeney or De Goey or even Ladhams given it's probably a month punt anyway.
Yep. Best bye of the lot and really the only one with that bye.
Would love kind of clarity on his fitness after the injury last week. Then the Adams factor is also relevant not that he hasn't shown the ability to score in just about every role.
Preseason injury also still scary given his age and the type.
I can already see me picking the wrong 2 of the 5 names I'm considering this week
Would love kind of clarity on his fitness after the injury last week. Then the Adams factor is also relevant not that he hasn't shown the ability to score in just about every role.
Preseason injury also still scary given his age and the type.
I can already see me picking the wrong 2 of the 5 names I'm considering this week
- Joined
- 15 Oct 2018
- Messages
- 3,912
- Likes
- 12,177
- AFL Club
- Essendon
I brought him in for Dunkley when he was 470-something, sort of regret the pick so far. I avoided Zorko as I have way too many with that bye, but even with a donut that option would probably have been better for me.
The last two weeks he's started pretty hot and faded, shown some promise, but not too much and he looks a bit past his prime at the moment. He's also not always been a 100+ scorer historically and had two recent seasons in the 90's, which is what he will probably average from here, which will do as a forward. I guess in the past two games he's copped a tag and had a slight injury concern, so maybe both would be 100+ scores if not not for those ocurrences.
I think Adams helps him a bit as he's not a fantastic contested ball winner and would benefit from getting more ball fed to him.
I got him because he was still finding the ball and his ball use had been poor, I thought even if he was a bit past it and his ball use wouldn't get back to what it was, that it would be pretty unlikely that it'd remain that bad. His ball use has improved in the past 3 weeks, but his disposal count has dropped.
He still has some upside to go 105+ from here.
The last two weeks he's started pretty hot and faded, shown some promise, but not too much and he looks a bit past his prime at the moment. He's also not always been a 100+ scorer historically and had two recent seasons in the 90's, which is what he will probably average from here, which will do as a forward. I guess in the past two games he's copped a tag and had a slight injury concern, so maybe both would be 100+ scores if not not for those ocurrences.
I think Adams helps him a bit as he's not a fantastic contested ball winner and would benefit from getting more ball fed to him.
I got him because he was still finding the ball and his ball use had been poor, I thought even if he was a bit past it and his ball use wouldn't get back to what it was, that it would be pretty unlikely that it'd remain that bad. His ball use has improved in the past 3 weeks, but his disposal count has dropped.
He still has some upside to go 105+ from here.
- Joined
- 15 Oct 2018
- Messages
- 3,912
- Likes
- 12,177
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Yep. Best bye of the lot and really the only one with that bye.
Would love kind of clarity on his fitness after the injury last week. Then the Adams factor is also relevant not that he hasn't shown the ability to score in just about every role.
Preseason injury also still scary given his age and the type.
I can already see me picking the wrong 2 of the 5 names I'm considering this week
Would love kind of clarity on his fitness after the injury last week. Then the Adams factor is also relevant not that he hasn't shown the ability to score in just about every role.
Preseason injury also still scary given his age and the type.
I can already see me picking the wrong 2 of the 5 names I'm considering this week
Walters on the radar after last night - 23 disp and a goal playing a lot more midfield.
Definite watch for next week to see if he was just filling the void left from Brayshaw. IMO he had a direct impact on that win and plays his best footy rotating through the midfield. Can afford to keep doing that if guys like Henry and Schultz keep playing well. Durability always an issue for him as well of course.
Definite watch for next week to see if he was just filling the void left from Brayshaw. IMO he had a direct impact on that win and plays his best footy rotating through the midfield. Can afford to keep doing that if guys like Henry and Schultz keep playing well. Durability always an issue for him as well of course.
Is Heeney worth bringing in as a stepping stone/placeholder for Dangerfield?
Dangerfield is listed as 2-4 weeks away, so could return anywhere between Round 12 & Round 14.
Over that period, Heeney plays Carlton, St Kilda & Hawthorn before his Round 14 bye. If he averages 100 over that 3 game run, he will only make 88K to reach a price of 435K - is this enough to justify the trade before moving him to Dangerfield?
Heeney's run gets considerably harder following the bye with Port away, Eagles & Dogs away, so there is every possibility his price growth is stunted in that 3 game stretch and he may be difficult to rely on as an on-field option. The temptation to bring in Danger could be strong - but I'm wondering if it makes more sense to just use Weightman instead of Heeney to reach Danger?
Dangerfield is listed as 2-4 weeks away, so could return anywhere between Round 12 & Round 14.
Over that period, Heeney plays Carlton, St Kilda & Hawthorn before his Round 14 bye. If he averages 100 over that 3 game run, he will only make 88K to reach a price of 435K - is this enough to justify the trade before moving him to Dangerfield?
Heeney's run gets considerably harder following the bye with Port away, Eagles & Dogs away, so there is every possibility his price growth is stunted in that 3 game stretch and he may be difficult to rely on as an on-field option. The temptation to bring in Danger could be strong - but I'm wondering if it makes more sense to just use Weightman instead of Heeney to reach Danger?
Last edited:
Locking in your assumptions on Heeney...
The questions are:
Who is he replacing on field? - If you've got a Daniher type at F6 as many do, the gain is pretty minimal at best. If you've got a Warner/Poulter type you're gaining probably in the 30-40 points a week. If you're fielding a Treacy, McCreery or Waterman type you could be looking at 60+ point gains. (I have no idea where to put Rowe in this equation right now!) I would imagine for most that Heeney's bye is very favourable in the forwards (Sidey, Walker and McDonald the only "premiums" from those sides).
Who else could you be trading for? - If there is a decent looking rookie, they will probably make more cash than Heeney. Given you're paying ~220k extra for Heeney over those rookies you'd want to be damn sure he's going to get close on the cash generation.
What is the 2nd half of the trade? - You're paying 220k for Heeney over the rookie alternative, what does that 220k do elsewhere in the team? Does upgrading a midfield/back rookie get you more on field benefit?
I'd question if Heeney is the best allocation of these resources especially given his durability risk, miss one game in that month and the whole plan falls apart. Personally a rookie makes you more money and I'd think that you can get similar gains using the 220k elsewhere.
Heeney does make sense as a keeper pick though if you think he's capable of scoring well enough and staying on the park. If he averages 90 from here then he more than does the job at F6 given right now the F6 level is only 95 and that includes Walker and his 58 3 round average. At his price he makes a lot of sense at F6 to me for the rest of the season. I don't think the numbers stack up for him as a stepping stone in most scenarios as he's not going to gain you much more than a single donut avoiding trade later on.
The questions are:
Who is he replacing on field? - If you've got a Daniher type at F6 as many do, the gain is pretty minimal at best. If you've got a Warner/Poulter type you're gaining probably in the 30-40 points a week. If you're fielding a Treacy, McCreery or Waterman type you could be looking at 60+ point gains. (I have no idea where to put Rowe in this equation right now!) I would imagine for most that Heeney's bye is very favourable in the forwards (Sidey, Walker and McDonald the only "premiums" from those sides).
Who else could you be trading for? - If there is a decent looking rookie, they will probably make more cash than Heeney. Given you're paying ~220k extra for Heeney over those rookies you'd want to be damn sure he's going to get close on the cash generation.
What is the 2nd half of the trade? - You're paying 220k for Heeney over the rookie alternative, what does that 220k do elsewhere in the team? Does upgrading a midfield/back rookie get you more on field benefit?
I'd question if Heeney is the best allocation of these resources especially given his durability risk, miss one game in that month and the whole plan falls apart. Personally a rookie makes you more money and I'd think that you can get similar gains using the 220k elsewhere.
Heeney does make sense as a keeper pick though if you think he's capable of scoring well enough and staying on the park. If he averages 90 from here then he more than does the job at F6 given right now the F6 level is only 95 and that includes Walker and his 58 3 round average. At his price he makes a lot of sense at F6 to me for the rest of the season. I don't think the numbers stack up for him as a stepping stone in most scenarios as he's not going to gain you much more than a single donut avoiding trade later on.
Thank you for the detailed response - he would be taking Rowe's place on field for me over the bye period.
The rookie instead of Heeney would be Weightman - a saving of ~173K. This money saved could allow me to get Bont instead of Steele & Mills instead of Whitfield over the next few weeks.
I own Ziebell, Zorko, Hall, Impey & Dusty up forward - Impey was already penciled in as the "F6 guy", so I'm unsure whether it's wise introducing Heeney into the mix as well.
The rookie instead of Heeney would be Weightman - a saving of ~173K. This money saved could allow me to get Bont instead of Steele & Mills instead of Whitfield over the next few weeks.
I own Ziebell, Zorko, Hall, Impey & Dusty up forward - Impey was already penciled in as the "F6 guy", so I'm unsure whether it's wise introducing Heeney into the mix as well.
- Joined
- 18 Sep 2012
- Messages
- 1,229
- Likes
- 3,129
- AFL Club
- Geelong
