Position 2021: Ruck Discussion

[<actus]

Anyone got a good theory on what has been going on with ROB?

Looked poised to become a primo a year or so ago.

It doesn’t look like he’s plateaud. His good scores are primo-worthy. But he’s got no consistency and his bad scores are awful.

Maybe his midfield is too bad so he’s not getting enough taps to advantage often enough?

 

[Herbie66]

Anyone got a good theory on what has been going on with ROB?

Looked poised to become a primo a year or so ago.

It doesn’t look like he’s plateaud. His good scores are primo-worthy. But he’s got no consistency and his bad scores are awful.

Maybe his midfield is too bad so he’s not getting enough taps to advantage often enough?

Their was a reference to a article on AFL.com.au either Tuesday or Wednesday that he has had a back complaint/issue that he is managing (causing spasms)

Unfortunately I have not been able to find the article , particularly as a owner myself why I am interested and possibly explains why he has been moving around like a 90yo in Round 9-10 , did look a lot better Round 11.

@Professor might be able to work his magic and find the article

 

[Professor]

Their was a reference to a article on AFL.com.au either Tuesday or Wednesday that he has had a back complaint/issue that he is managing (causing spasms)

Unfortunately I have not been able to find the article , particularly as a owner myself why I am interested and possibly explains why he has been moving around like a 90yo in Round 9-10 , did look a lot better Round 11.

@Professor might be able to work his magic and find the article

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1399552049197449228

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/mkfburford/status/1399552049197449228

 

[Herbie66]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1399552049197449228

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/mkfburford/status/1399552049197449228

You are a legend 🤗

 

[Professor]

You are a legend 🤗

Hopefully does a Cripps for you and starts hitting the ton on a regular basis

 

[Herbie66]

Hopefully does a Cripps for you and starts hitting the ton on a regular basis

This is it , movement round.

I am only 2500 behind the leader , but think I can catch them 😀

125+ every round from herein

 

[Grundogging]

6 month contracts essentially.

But a player like Edwards, who’s been linked with NTH from very early in the season, will instantly sign another contract locking him in for X amount of years. It’s that guarantee that has seen Edwards actually nominate for the MSD, as he was certainly weighing up whether to just hold out until the National Draft and get the automatic 2 year deal.

Newcombe I believe is the only player to nominate special terms of contract ahead of tonight, of a four year deal on whatever money stipulated. That means whichever team wishes to select him has to meet those terms.

It's 6 or 18 months actually with hopefuls free to nominate either and I'd suspect many of the good chances who were projected to be drafted later in the ND would have nominated 18 months because it wouldn't make sense to go for a 6 month contract vs 2 years guaranteed later in the year.

We for instance are more than likely signing both Johnson and Begg for 18 months (Begg is a guaranteed 18 month deal).

 

[Grundogging]

Very tempted to flip Grundy to Gawn with 16 trades in hand still.

It would be burning a trade I know but there's a little worm of doubt* gnawing away down deep in my gut saying it's time to get off Grundy for a bit because he'll be held out a bit longer than the three weeks and it would make the path to other upgrades notably smoother while giving Flynn opportunity to make a bit more cash.

Shouldn't have any trouble rolling Flynn out for Grundy when he returns which is another thing to consider.

* disclaimer: sensation in gut could also be the Mexican feast I had for lunch

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

I've had a lumbar radiculopathy and not really sure what to make of Grundy's cervical radiculopathy. On the one hand I sort of go with the club and believe he will be back in the stated timeframe because these things are a case by case basis and looking at the incident it was a whiplash type injury that can be only weeks for recovery.

The fact he was back running again doesn't really mean that much given his type of pinched nerve affects his upper body. The one I had I had shooting pains down into my legs and would legit get small hamstring tears just by walking. I was lucky in that it was relatively mild (the alternate was incontinence and "dropped foot" which the NBA player Michael Porter Jnr had) but it still took me months to recover.

This is a type of injury where you can make an argument that both trading him out and keeping him are the safest play. Without insight from his Doctor we're all sort of flying blind here: if he suits up after the bye and plays out the rest of the season at a high level I would not be surprised but if its 6 weeks off + I wouldn't be surprised either.

 

[<actus]

Very tempted to flip Grundy to Gawn with 16 trades in hand still.

It would be burning a trade I know but there's a little worm of doubt* gnawing away down deep in my gut saying it's time to get off Grundy for a bit because he'll be held out a bit longer than the three weeks and it would make the path to other upgrades notably smoother while giving Flynn opportunity to make a bit more cash.

Shouldn't have any trouble rolling Flynn out for Grundy when he returns which is another thing to consider.

* disclaimer: sensation in gut could also be the Mexican feast I had for lunch

I would do Grundy to Gawn in a heartbeat if I didn’t already own both. Genuinely feels like a “no brainer” to me. Flynn up to Grundy later when he comes back. I just wish the decision in front of the rest of us seemed as clear cut.

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

The more I think about it the more I think those on the fence about trading Grundy should wait a week. Hopefully we'll get some more clarity about his condition then.

You'll also get some info on Reeves and if Flynn is selected with Mumford etc. Also those without Gawn can also see him vs a very tough team in the Lions.

 

[Blue Bloods]

I would do Grundy to Gawn in a heartbeat if I didn’t already own both. Genuinely feels like a “no brainer” to me. Flynn up to Grundy later when he comes back. I just wish the decision in front of the rest of us seemed as clear cut.

Yeah, easy call if you dont have Gawn

 

[Blue Bloods]

If I brought in NicNat and he got a pair of 110's against Pittonet and then Chol then I'd be pretty disappointed.

My poorest on field rookie is Treacy and he's not even averaging 30.

Maybe a more realistic calculation (from my perspective) is a pair of 140's and a pair of 30's which equates to 220pts. Add to that the ability to field 2 rucks/week because of his bye then that's Reeves score over a poor rookie which could be another 50pts. So 270pts all up.

NicNat also has favourable matchups over rnds 15-16 where he could again go large. Grundy is up against Darcy and Ryder over the same weeks so I would expect NicNat to at least match Grundy and possibly even score better.

That leaves 7 games for Grundy to outscore NicNat by 270(+?) pts which is nearly 40pts/game. Grundy has been averaging 10pts more than NicNat this year.

Trading Grundy out releases 40k, if he is traded back in after rnd 16 then there's another 60k on offer (footywire projections)

Best case is Grundy is out until rnd 15, worst case?

If you believe NicNat can score 140 over the next few weeks go for it. He has only scored over 140 once this year. Pittonet isn’t a good ruckman but he isn’t a bad ruckman and I don’t think many have smashed him, plus WCE midfield to grab his taps are mostly gone. Don’t have Tracey so not in the equation for me.

Reeves plays with or without the trade so not sure how you can add his numbers, not sure if I’m missing something there?

FWIW I’m still considering him as with a few out I wasn’t expecting he may cover a zero and that changes the numbers for my team have to check this.

 

[Quasimodo]

1 in 7 Grundy owners are out! Currently more than 13,000 of the 94,704 owners have him gone. Will be interesting to see what the actual % becomes. No doubt some coaches are just seeing how things look for now and may reverse trades. But on the flip side you also have coaches who won't execute the trade until some point before the Pies play on Saturday and therefore may not show in the current numbers.

Also need to consider that there are usually a heck of a lot of ghost ships by the midway point of the season. So it may be as high as 1 in 5 or even 1 in 4 coaches, who are actively competing for overall rank, that are at least considering moving him on.

 

[Grundogging]

1 in 7 Grundy owners are out! Currently more than 13,000 of the 94,704 owners have him gone. Will be interesting to see what the actual % becomes. No doubt some coaches are just seeing how thing look for now and may reverse trades. But on the flip side you also have coaches who won't execute the trade until some point before the Pies play on Saturday and therefore may not show in the current numbers.

Also need to consider that there are usually a heck of a lot of ghost ships by the midway point of the season. So it may be as high as 1 in 5 or even 1 in 4 coaches, who are actively competing for overall rank, that are at least considering moving him on.

Makes me wonder how many teams are out there in a similar position to mine where they started with Grundy + 2 and have staggered along hoping to slingshot a rookie or mid-priced ruck to Gawn in the weeks leading up to the byes.

I was in this boat personally and very nearly pulled the trigger on Gawn instead of Clarry a few weeks back, but then Gawn threw in the 60's score vs North followed by (for him) a string of ordinary scores which nudged me me to look elsewhere for premo upgrades (ie.. Clarry, Zorko) at the point(s) where I was originally planning to do a one down-one up to bring Gawn in.

Fortunately it has turned into a bit of a perfect storm in terms of flipping Grundy out temporarily to bring Gawn in, with Grundy and Gawn having the same bye, Flynn's JS at R2 improving to the point where you'd expect him to play in R13/14 and a couple of viable cash cows in Reeves and CCJ emerging just at the right time to provide some much needed ruck cover and an easy path to cashing out Flynn for Grundy when the latter returns.

There's been so many moving parts in ruck divisions for supercoach teams this year and this is just another chapter in the ruck saga we've had to endure thus far.

 

[Quasimodo]

Makes me wonder how many teams are out there in a similar position to mine where they started with Grundy + 2 and have staggered along hoping to slingshot a rookie or mid-priced ruck to Gawn in the weeks leading up to the byes.

I was in this boat personally and very nearly pulled the trigger on Gawn instead of Clarry a few weeks back, but then Gawn threw in the 60's score vs North followed by (for him) a string of ordinary scores which nudged me me to look elsewhere for premo upgrades (ie.. Clarry, Zorko) at the point(s) where I was originally planning to do a one down-one up to bring Gawn in.

Fortunately it has turned into a bit of a perfect storm in terms of flipping Grundy out temporarily to bring Gawn in, with Grundy and Gawn having the same bye, Flynn's JS at R2 improving to the point where you'd expect him to play in R13/14 and a couple of viable cash cows in Reeves and CCJ emerging just at the right time to provide some much needed ruck cover and an easy path to cashing out Flynn for Grundy when the latter returns.

There's been so many moving parts in ruck divisions for supercoach teams this year and this is just another chapter in the ruck saga we've had to endure thus far.

I could understand the situation being kind of an opportunity for coaches in particular situations like yourself. Others could be making the move more out of desperation after say receiving some bad rookie news at the selection table and struggling to field 18 this week or next. There's no question those who don't make the move will likely take some sort of rankings hit in the short term, being essentially at least a premo down versus their worst rookies score for two weeks compared to others who pull the trigger. Down a full premo if they can't field 18.

The more interesting question to me is what happens after Rd14. Does the return date blow out because of a setback? Is Grundy in anyway limited initially and what impact does that have on his fantasy output?. Or does he just return in rd15 and go BANG, immediately punishing those who have now effectively bet against him. Or does he even train the house down next week and come back for Rd13 a la Tom Hickey? There are so many permutations.

Coincidentally Chris Paul is also dealing with a whiplash or "stinger" type injury. He arguably came back too early and has now re-injured it. And that's supposedly in a no contact sport and not wrestling gorillas that Grundy does for a living. You can look like you're travelling fine and then cop a knock from the wrong angle and then completely re-aggravate things until that area fully heals and the nerves settle down.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YznKrko992A

 

[Grundogging]

I could understand the situation being kind of an opportunity for coaches in particular situations like yourself. Others could be making the move more out of desperation after receiving some bad rookie news at the selection table and struggling to field 18 this week or next. There's no question those who don't make the move will likely take some sort of rankings hit in the short term, being essentially at least a premo down versus their worst rookies score for two weeks compared to others who pull the trigger.

The more interesting question to me is what happens after Rd14. Does the return date blow out because of a setback? Is Grundy in anyway limited initially and what impact does that have on his fantasy output?. Or does he just return in rd15 and go BANG, immediately punishing those who now bet against him. Or does he even train the house down next week and come back for Rd13 a la Tom Hickey? There are so many permutations.

Coincidentally Chris Paul is also dealing with a whiplash or "stinger" type injury. He arguably came back too early and has now re-injured it. And that's supposedly in a no contact sport and not wrestling gorillas that Grundy does for a living. You can look like you're travelling fine and then cop a knock from the wrong angle and then completely re-aggravate things until that area fully heals and the nerves settle down.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YznKrko992A

I think the one thing you can safely rule out is Grundy returning before the R14 bye, as this is now his second time at the rodeo when it comes to pinched nerve issues in the neck so even though he wants to come back ASAP I reckon it will be a firm "NO" from the club doctor and medical staff.

The fact that we're going nowhere and probably need to have a look at Lynch now anyway also lends itself to giving Grundy a bit more time to make sure he's over the pinched nerve issue (and hopefully avoid it becoming something more chronic towards the radiculopathy end of the scale).

 

[Quasimodo]

I think the one thing you can safely rule out is Grundy returning before the R14 bye, as this is now his second time at the rodeo when it comes to pinched nerve issues in the neck so even though he wants to come back ASAP I reckon it will be a firm "NO" from the club doctor and medical staff.
scale).

I'm sure that will be the case too as he's arguably their most precious commodity so caution is king. Although it's a brave man to predict with certainty anything that Collingwood might do given recent history.

 

[wogitalia]

I'd say with other clubs it would be 50% he's back after the bye and 49% that it takes longer than predicted with a 1% chance he's back early.

Given it's the Pies and their recent efforts, I'd say it's 50% he's back after the bye, 25% they rush him back early, 20% they rush him back early and make it worse and 5% they take their time.

One factor with the Pies, as much as they're "rebuilding" they need to win as much as possible because they gave away their first rounder already and it just looks really bad if it's a top 2 pick so they need to win. Bucks also coaching for his career you'd think.

Realistically though, it's the kind of injury you'd think the 3 weeks post bye is the likely best case outcome.

I think other circumstances are going to force me into the trade. Grabbing NicNat allows me to get Steele instead of Bianco this week and opens the pathway to Danger and Lloyd/Mills for my final two upgrades left. Plus it feels like years since I've had NicNat and it's always an interesting ride.

One thing with NicNat is he has a very strong history of big scoring patches, basically every season he had 3 140+ scores they're basically all in a 6 week period. 2012 he had 164, 153 and 163 in a 5 week block. 2015 it was 152, 147, 146 and 130 in a 6 week block. Last year after playing himself into shape (like he has this year) he went 146, 153, 146 and 143 with 129 and 122 also in the final 8 weeks, was a 72 and a 98 to balance it out. The man can score.

Eagles midfield is also set to get a lot stronger over the next month with Yeo back, Shuey, Duggan and Hutchings all due back in the next few weeks and Kelly a couple of weeks after that. Having said that, in a weird way I like NicNat without midfielders more, last week after Kelly went down NicNat started taking it out of the ruck consistently and it was absolute gold as he gets the contested clearance and almost always just bangs it 40m down the line to a contest (which Eagles forwards give), meaning effective kick on top.

I'm mostly trying to sell him to myself

 

[Leroy]

I've moved Flynn for Heeney this week with Fullarton going to R3 (FDNTPA - Floating Donut Never To Play Again).

But I've realised (only just now ) that this means I can bring in Reeves to cover Grundy without moving on the big man himself.

Had this thought that if Fullarton ended up back in the forwards then I was pushing another donut onto the field for zero net gain, but if I'm trading out a non-playing rookie for Reeves then overall I end up with more warm bodies right?