Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[HirdofMe?]

Hi Rowsus,

This thread is full of great analysis, and I have been trying to think of a question that would be worth your time answering. I think I finally one.

This year I think I may pick my premium/potential premiums based on durability and consistency. I think forwards are much more erratic, and I want at least one line that I can count on each week for consistent points. Is there possibly a formula you could think of that could be put into a excel table to find out who are the most durable and consistent defenders available to pick?

No worries if you are not keen to, but if you were interested to see the results it would be great!

Thanks

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

This thread is full of great analysis, and I have been trying to think of a question that would be worth your time answering. I think I finally one.

This year I think I may pick my premium/potential premiums based on durability and consistency. I think forwards are much more erratic, and I want at least one line that I can count on each week for consistent points. Is there possibly a formula you could think of that could be put into a excel table to find out who are the most durable and consistent defenders available to pick?

No worries if you are not keen to, but if you were interested to see the results it would be great!

Thanks

I think you may be over complicating it a little, wanting an Excel formula to work it out.
Here is a full and comprehensive list, of every player available as a Defender this season, to have played 19 games or more, and averaged 87 or higher in each of the 3 previous seasons:

Enright
Adcock .......

If you want to expand the options a little, lets narrow it down to the last 2 seasons, instead of 3:

Enright
Adcock
Thompson SD
Taylor
Johnson M
Rance .......

It's not a deep list to be choosing from, but I understand where you are coming from.

 

[HirdofMe?]

I think you may be over complicating it a little, wanting an Excel formula to work it out.
Here is a full and comprehensive list, of every player available as a Defender this season, to have played 19 games or more, and averaged 87 or higher in each of the 3 previous seasons:

Enright
Adcock .......

If you want to expand the options a little, lets narrow it down to the last 2 seasons, instead of 3:

Enright
Adcock
Thompson SD
Taylor
Johnson M
Rance .......

It's not a deep list to be choosing from, but I understand where you are coming from.

Now thinking about it, I definitely over complicated the question.

Thanks for simplifying this for me.

Will seriously have to consider a few of those defenders on your list.

 

[Manikato1]

Hi Rowsus. Hoping you can clarify something for my jaded brain. Does the amount a player may increase/decrease in price be affected by the size of the fluctuations in his scores? Eg would a player who scores 55, 100, 55 for a 3 game ave of 70 go up or down more in price at the end of the three games than a player who scores 65, 70 75 for the same ave of 70. And does the starting price at the start have any influence? eg a player at $250k has a bigger variance than a $450k player?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. Hoping you can clarify something for my jaded brain. Does the amount a player may increase/decrease in price be affected by the size of the fluctuations in his scores? Eg would a player who scores 55, 100, 55 for a 3 game ave of 70 go up or down more in price at the end of the three games than a player who scores 65, 70 75 for the same ave of 70. And does the starting price at the start have any influence? eg a player at $250k has a bigger variance than a $450k player?

Hi Manikato,
first let me explain pricing, then look at your 2 examples.

Price Change = (this weeks score - breakeven) x 440

Breakeven = (Price x 3)/MN - most recent score - score before that

MN = Magic Number. There is no way to determine this once the season is on the way. This year it has started at around 5,394. It usually falls around 7-8% in round 3, then slowly falls over the rest of the season another 3%. It can actually rise a little some weeks.


For convenience of the 2nd part of your answer, let's assume we're sitting at round 5 or 6, and the MN has fallen to exactly 5,000. First lets look at the 2 different 3 score sets against the $250k player

Example 1 Player is valued at $250k, and his last 3 scores have been: 55, 100, 55 and we want to know how the last 55 affects his price.

B/E = (250,000 x 3)/5,000 - 100 - 55 = -5
Price Change = (55 - -5) x 440 = +$26,400
New B/E (276,400 x 3)/4,985 - 55 - 100 = 11 (actually 11.34)

Example 2 Player is valued at $250k, and his last 3 scores have been: 65, 70, 75 and we want to know how the last 75 affects his price.

B/E = (250,000 x 3)/5,000 - 70 - 65 = 15
Price Change = (75 - 15) x 440 = +$26,400
New B/E = (276,400 x 3)/4,985 - 75 - 70 = 21 (actually 21.34)

For the new B/E's we guestimated again. As you can see, because their 3 game average was identical, their price change was identical, but they now face different B/E's for the following game.

Example 3 Player is valued at $450k, and his last 3 scores have been: 55, 100, 55 and we want to know how the last 55 affects his price.

B/E = (450,000 x 3)/5,000 - 100 - 55 = 115
Price Change = (55 - 115) x 440 = -$26,400
New B/E = (423,600 x 3)/4,985 - 55 - 100 = 100 (actually 99.92)

Example 4 Player is valued at $450k, and his last 3 scores have been: 65, 70, 75 and we want to know how the last 75 affects his price.

B/E = (450,000 x 3)/5,000 - 70 - 65 = 135
Price Change = (75 - 135) x 440 = -$26,400
New B/E = (423,600 x 3)/4,985 - 75 - 70 = 110 (actually 109.92)

Once again, you can see the price change was the same, as the 3 game average was the same. The affect on the players of different prices though, was dramatically different.
It should be noted that these are still approximate, and subject to a change of around +/-$200. This is because prices and B/E's are calculated to decimal Places, but are only displayed in multiples of $100 and whole numbers.

 

[Mudflap]

Rowsus - I am on the lookout for 1 or possibly 2 defenders in the $200k - $340K range. These are players that would have average somewhere between 40 and 65 last season (as well as a few injury affected players). My "hope" is that I can find 2 players in this range that will jump up and average 80 -90 for the season this year (big ask I know)

My question is last season how many defenders from $200 - $340K at the start of the season went on to average 80 points or more for the year?

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus - I am on the lookout for 1 or possibly 2 defenders in the $200k - $340K range. These are players that would have average somewhere between 40 and 65 last season (as well as a few injury affected players). My "hope" is that I can find 2 players in this range that will jump up and average 80 -90 for the season this year (big ask I know)

My question is last season how many defenders from $200 - $340K at the start of the season went on to average 80 points or more for the year?

It sounds easy on paper, but it's a lot harder in practice. And here's why!

Last season there were 175 Defenders priced lower than $340k, and only 3 of them managed an 80+ average.

B Goodes - 91 ave, priced at $128,200
R Henderson - 85 ave, priced at $314,100
B Ellis - 82 ave, priced at $300,100

There were 92 Defenders priced between $200k and $340k for 2 80+ averages. Finding the right ones is like finding a needle in a haystack! The other problem is, if you find a player that averages 80, and costs you $340k, you are in effect burning a trade for nothing. His price will peak at about $390k, so you only make $50k, and if you don't trade him, you lose lots of points to other teams.

 

[AngryAnt]

It sounds easy on paper, but it's a lot harder in practice. And here's why!

Last season there were 175 Defenders priced lower than $340k, and only 3 of them managed an 80+ average.

B Goodes - 91 ave, priced at $128,200
R Henderson - 85 ave, priced at $314,100
B Ellis - 82 ave, priced at $300,100

There were 92 Defenders priced between $200k and $340k for 2 80+ averages. Finding the right ones is like finding a needle in a haystack! The other problem is, if you find a player that averages 80, and costs you $340k, you are in effect burning a trade for nothing. His price will peak at about $390k, so you only make $50k, and if you don't trade him, you lose lots of points to other teams.

I'm assuming then that Suckling is somewhat of a wasted player at his price unless he can go premium?

 

[Mudflap]

It sounds easy on paper, but it's a lot harder in practice. And here's why!

Last season there were 175 Defenders priced lower than $340k, and only 3 of them managed an 80+ average.

B Goodes - 91 ave, priced at $128,200
R Henderson - 85 ave, priced at $314,100
B Ellis - 82 ave, priced at $300,100

There were 92 Defenders priced between $200k and $340k for 2 80+ averages. Finding the right ones is like finding a needle in a haystack! The other problem is, if you find a player that averages 80, and costs you $340k, you are in effect burning a trade for nothing. His price will peak at about $390k, so you only make $50k, and if you don't trade him, you lose lots of points to other teams.

Thanks... absolute gold to have information like that. I may re think my strategy

Can I stretch things here and ask if there were any that averaged over 70?

 

[Rowsus]

I'm assuming then that Suckling is somewhat of a wasted player at his price unless he can go premium?

Unless he can score at a rate, that you can keep him the whole season, or trade out for your last upgrade, I'd avoid him. Most of those taking him are doing it on the punt he can hopefully get up around 85-90, or even a touch higher. Any less than that, and I think a Rookie is a better option, providing you use the money saved on the Rookie well elsewhere!

 

[Ricky Bobby]

It sounds easy on paper, but it's a lot harder in practice. And here's why!

Last season there were 175 Defenders priced lower than $340k, and only 3 of them managed an 80+ average.

B Goodes - 91 ave, priced at $128,200
R Henderson - 85 ave, priced at $314,100
B Ellis - 82 ave, priced at $300,100

There were 92 Defenders priced between $200k and $340k for 2 80+ averages. Finding the right ones is like finding a needle in a haystack! The other problem is, if you find a player that averages 80, and costs you $340k, you are in effect burning a trade for nothing. His price will peak at about $390k, so you only make $50k, and if you don't trade him, you lose lots of points to other teams.

Ellis is an interesting one. From memory he dropped from his starting price down to about $220k due to being vested a number of times. From that point on, he started producing some "premium" type scores and increased quite a lot in value. It makes me wonder whether it is a viable strategy to monitor some of the rookie favorites from last year, who may be still cop a few vests early in the year with a view to swoop on them when their price drops? For this to work we would need to be confident that the vest had been handed over to someone else and was unlikely to reappear.
Rowsus, do you have any stats on the rookies from last year and their number of vested games so we could create a short list of possible candidates to keep our eyes on?

 

[Nk29]

Ellis is an interesting one. From memory he dropped from his starting price down to about $220k due to being vested a number of times. From that point on, he started producing some "premium" type scores and increased quite a lot in value. It makes me wonder whether it is a viable strategy to monitor some of the rookie favorites from last year, who may be still cop a few vests early in the year with a view to swoop on them when their price drops? For this to work we would need to be confident that the vest had been handed over to someone else and was unlikely to reappear.
Rowsus, do you have any stats on the rookies from last year and their number of vested games so we could create a short list of possible candidates to keep our eyes on?

Hopefully Macrae (Y).

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks... absolute gold to have information like that. I may re think my strategy

Can I stretch things here and ask if there were any that averaged over 70?

Hmmmm... I'm not sure why you want a player that cost $200-$340k that averaged 70!
I'll find the answer if you can tell me where it is leading, or how it helps!

 

[Rowsus]

Ellis is an interesting one. From memory he dropped from his starting price down to about $220k due to being vested a number of times. From that point on, he started producing some "premium" type scores and increased quite a lot in value. It makes me wonder whether it is a viable strategy to monitor some of the rookie favorites from last year, who may be still cop a few vests early in the year with a view to swoop on them when their price drops? For this to work we would need to be confident that the vest had been handed over to someone else and was unlikely to reappear.
Rowsus, do you have any stats on the rookies from last year and their number of vested games so we could create a short list of possible candidates to keep our eyes on?

You are right about Ellis. He started the season 35, 35, 6, 31 and fell to $220k, then came out and went 134, 82, 103, 149, 127!
The number of vests they got last year doesn't help you find an Ellis type situation, it is the vests this year that will create a repeat opportunity like Ellis'.
Anyone wanting vesting information from last season should visit IDIG's excellent thread A Bargain Hunters Paradise.

 

[Mudflap]

Hmmmm... I'm not sure why you want a player that cost $200-$340k that averaged 70!
I'll find the answer if you can tell me where it is leading, or how it helps!

I am keen to load up the mids and forwards as much as possible and am willing to take a few punts in the back on cheaper players. Happy to hold 3 - 5players in the backs that can churn out 70 - 80 for the first 8 -10 weeks if it means I can have a midfield of Ablett, Pendles, Rockliff, Cotchin, Ziebell, Beams, Shuey and Rookie.

If I dont think I can find the backs that will do the job I may need to re visit this idea

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus,

Great to see you back giving your advice again. You do a fantastic job. Keep up the good work.
My question to you is can you have both Daisy and M.Murphy in the same team?
I obviously have Ablett, then Pendles and Beams. But can I add Daisy and Murphy to that midfield or is it too over the top?
Two Pies and two Blues?
Daisy and Murph both look like they are great value.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Great to see you back giving your advice again. You do a fantastic job. Keep up the good work.
My question to you is can you have both Daisy and M.Murphy in the same team?
I obviously have Ablett, then Pendles and Beams. But can I add Daisy and Murphy to that midfield or is it too over the top?
Two Pies and two Blues?
Daisy and Murph both look like they are great value.

Hi Slammer,
there is no doubt you can have them both. If you think they will score well enough, and play enough games, then you'd be crazy not to. I'm not going to have Daisy in my team, as my opinion of his potential return doesn't match the other peoples. If your opinion has him reaching near Keeper status or better, go for it!

 

[Slammer]

Hi Slammer,
there is no doubt you can have them both. If you think they will score well enough, and play enough games, then you'd be crazy not to. I'm not going to have Daisy in my team, as my opinion of his potential return doesn't match the other peoples. If your opinion has him reaching near Keeper status or better, go for it!

Thats my concern I guess. i don't think he can reach premium status but may jump in value enough for an upgrade down the track

 

[anfa18]

Thats my concern I guess. i don't think he can reach premium status but may jump in value enough for an upgrade down the track

If he averages 95 up until his bye his price will be 463k, that's a price rise of about 120k. Is that enough? Will rookies make more cash? He is also a non starter in my lineup.

 

[Manikato1]

Hi Manikato,
first let me explain pricing, then look at your 2 examples.

Price Change = (this weeks score - breakeven) x 440

Breakeven = (Price x 3)/MN - most recent score - score before that

MN = Magic Number. There is no way to determine this once the season is on the way. This year it has started at around 5,394. It usually falls around 7-8% in round 3, then slowly falls over the rest of the season another 3%. It can actually rise a little some weeks.


For convenience of the 2nd part of your answer, let's assume we're sitting at round 5 or 6, and the MN has fallen to exactly 5,000. First lets look at the 2 different 3 score sets against the $250k player

Thanks Rowsus. Interesting. I was thinking that the player with the big fluctuations would be the one at a disadvantage. Not so. And the effect is magnified with lower priced players. Something to keep in mind when making player selections. Especially the so called value players at the lower end of the scale.