2022: AFL SC Player Discussions

[Darkie]

@GrainFedBeef

I hope that’s right regarding Mitchell. I currently have Macrae, Mitchell, Neale and Rowell as M1-M4, with Berry, Constable, JHF and Daicos as my other on field mids.

It feels a bit shallow versus the 4-5 premium mids that some other sides will have, but the cash gen potential of my M4-8 seems very strong, and stronger than other lines except perhaps the forwards (and certainly greater depth of good options, from what I can see).

I have G Clark at M9, which feels slightly wasteful if he’s best 22 for WC. Do you have a view on that?

 

[GrainFedBeef]

@GrainFedBeef

I hope that’s right regarding Mitchell. I currently have Macrae, Mitchell, Neale and Rowell as M1-M4, with Berry, Constable, JHF and Daicos as my other on field mids.

It feels a bit shallow versus the 4-5 premium mids that some other sides will have, but the cash gen potential of my M4-8 seems very strong, and stronger than other lines except perhaps the forwards (and certainly greater depth of good options, from what I can see).

I have G Clark at M9, which feels slightly wasteful if he’s best 22 for WC. Do you have a view on that?

Hi Darkie. I wouldn't get caught up what others have. As we saw last year many were scrambling filling defence when the rookies didn't turn up. We all agree a 5 person mid is the best.

I currently can get there with 2 premium defenders and Milera and Coleman, the latter track record is as good as a couple of good games at the end of the season. I have Clarke at M9 as well, with 5 premium mids.

Current swing factor though could be Macrae/Miller/Olivier + Coleman + Heeney vs Crisp + Berry + Duncan. Berry in my view will win over Coleman, Duncan wins over Heeney and Crisp is likely a top 6 defender vs Macrae/Miller or OIiver which are a top 8 midfielder.

Not discounting Tom Mitchell, however, certainty drops off if I pick him over one of Macrae, Miller, Steele (assuming Neale locked), although, his 125 2H ave suggests there is value there.

 

[Darkie]

Hi Darkie. I wouldn't get caught up what others have. As we saw last year many were scrambling filling defence when the rookies didn't turn up. We all agree a 5 person mid is the best.

I currently can get there with 2 premium defenders and Milera and Coleman, the latter track record is as good as a couple of good games at the end of the season. I have Clarke at M9 as well, with 5 premium mids.

Current swing factor though could be Macrae/Miller/Olivier + Coleman + Heeney vs Crisp + Berry + Duncan. Berry in my view will win over Coleman, Duncan wins over Heeney and Crisp is likely a top 6 defender vs Macrae/Miller or OIiver which are a top 8 midfielder.

Not discounting Tom Mitchell, however, certainty drops off if I pick him over one of Macrae, Miller, Steele (assuming Neale locked), although, his 125 2H ave suggests there is value there.

Interesting, thank you.

That does seem like a close X vs Y. It probably comes down to your view on Coleman’s role, Berry’s fitness and/or Heeney’s midfield time and ability to generate premium FWD scoring.

I currently have Berry and Heeney, but no Coleman.

I think that’s right about the tradeoff for Mitchell versus one of the dearer, younger guys. At this stage I don’t need the extra cash (still have 160k in cash), but I try not to put myself in a position where I have to remove players I really like due to budget issues!

Interesting that you have Clark at M9. I assume you are him as being a decent chance of playing early, in that case, but don’t see him as a lock for significant mid time?

 

[Ironhawk]

Hi Darkie. I wouldn't get caught up what others have. As we saw last year many were scrambling filling defence when the rookies didn't turn up. We all agree a 5 person mid is the best.

I currently can get there with 2 premium defenders and Milera and Coleman, the latter track record is as good as a couple of good games at the end of the season. I have Clarke at M9 as well, with 5 premium mids.

Current swing factor though could be Macrae/Miller/Olivier + Coleman + Heeney vs Crisp + Berry + Duncan. Berry in my view will win over Coleman, Duncan wins over Heeney and Crisp is likely a top 6 defender vs Macrae/Miller or OIiver which are a top 8 midfielder.

Not discounting Tom Mitchell, however, certainty drops off if I pick him over one of Macrae, Miller, Steele (assuming Neale locked), although, his 125 2H ave suggests there is value there.

Players averaging 100+ by position last season:

DEF: 7
MID: 28
RUC: 7*
FWD: 6*

Is 5 premium mids the way to go? There is significantly more depth on this line than any other. You can generally get better quality mids at a cheaper price than on other lines, and might be better off spending the cash on guns (at least 90+, close enough to top of line if you don't nail the best averaging players) elsewhere.

*Includes Strachan who played 2 games for a 100.5 average.

 

[Vicwood]

Interesting, thank you.

That does seem like a close X vs Y. It probably comes down to your view on Coleman’s role, Berry’s fitness and/or Heeney’s midfield time and ability to generate premium FWD scoring.

I currently have Berry and Heeney, but no Coleman.

I think that’s right about the tradeoff for Mitchell versus one of the dearer, younger guys. At this stage I don’t need the extra cash (still have 160k in cash), but I try not to put myself in a position where I have to remove players I really like due to budget issues!

Interesting that you have Clark at M9. I assume you are him as being a decent chance of playing early, in that case, but don’t see him as a lock for significant mid time?

Could run clark on the loop with another RK.? Currently my loop will be Ned Long (hawks) All depends on a ROOKIE Ruck getting a game RD1.?

 

[Darkie]

Could run clark on the loop with another RK.? Currently my loop will be Ned Long (hawks) All depends on a ROOKIE Ruck getting a game RD1.?

I find a lot tends to come down to whether there’s a viable rookie ruck and/or value R2.

Similar to the location of the rookies, it can have a big impact on structure.

 

[Leroy]

Players averaging 100+ by position last season:

DEF: 7
MID: 28
RUC: 7*
FWD: 6*

Is 5 premium mids the way to go? There is significantly more depth on this line than any other. You can generally get better quality mids at a cheaper price than on other lines, and might be better off spending the cash on guns (at least 90+, close enough to top of line if you don't nail the best averaging players) elsewhere.

*Includes Strachan who played 2 games for a 100.5 average.

Good stats.

To flip it around another way, this says that a $400k trade in for D6 or F6 mid season that averages 90 to the end is just about enough. Whereas if you do that in midfield you'll just be sad week after week.

I've always favoured 5 premium starting mid teams, usually 4 of the $600k+ guys and a more value oriented but still premium pick (eg. Walsh last year; Neale this year). But that's often just to o***et my temptation to trade in players on a discount who aren't really top line. Getting in 3 $600k mids during the season is hard; I don't think I'd have the discipline to bring in 4!

That said, if Berry is fit and JHF/Daicos look the goods I think you pick them and work the structure back from there, which probably leaves Berry as M5 and Neale at M4.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Interesting, thank you.

That does seem like a close X vs Y. It probably comes down to your view on Coleman’s role, Berry’s fitness and/or Heeney’s midfield time and ability to generate premium FWD scoring.

I currently have Berry and Heeney, but no Coleman.

I think that’s right about the tradeoff for Mitchell versus one of the dearer, younger guys. At this stage I don’t need the extra cash (still have 160k in cash), but I try not to put myself in a position where I have to remove players I really like due to budget issues!

Interesting that you have Clark at M9. I assume you are him as being a decent chance of playing early, in that case, but don’t see him as a lock for significant mid time?

Rather than a placeholder, I like to put a name to a spot. I have M9 due to thinking 4 onfield rooks spots are Berry, JHf, Daicos and a $150k rookie, plus his cheap price suits the bench

Will Clark play? We all hope so. Eagles major flaw is lack of inside presence, we were fortunate in 2018 that Sheeds and a few others lifted for 4-6 weeks. Not a sustainable model. Good thing is WA football was untouched last year so WA footballers will be the more seasoned players, being mature age, hopeful Eagles will trial him early.

Not sold on Coleman yet. Not sold on JHF yet either, given 77pt ave playing SANFL and will get less mid time.

Smart move on $160k. It is an issue of mine of late cut backs leading to inferior players as round 1 games start to roll out.

I think the various discussion around why 5 midfielders etc is history tells us defenders and forward premiums can be hard to predict and more volatile early on for scoring, yet we need to fill team with best rooks and cheap mid pricers $280k or less, then select premiums.

 

[Darkie]

Rather than a placeholder, I like to put a name to a spot. I have M9 due to thinking 4 onfield rooks spots are Berry, JHf, Daicos and a $150k rookie, plus his cheap price suits the bench

Will Clark play? We all hope so. Eagles major flaw is lack of inside presence, we were fortunate in 2018 that Sheeds and a few others lifted for 4-6 weeks. Not a sustainable model. Good thing is WA football was untouched last year so WA footballers will be the more seasoned players, being mature age, hopeful Eagles will trial him early.

Not sold on Coleman yet. Not sold on JHF yet either, given 77pt ave playing SANFL and will get less mid time.

Smart move on $160k. It is an issue of mine of late cut backs leading to inferior players as round 1 games start to roll out.

I think the various discussion around why 5 midfielders etc is history tells us defenders and forward premiums can be hard to predict and more volatile early on for scoring, yet we need to fill team with best rooks and cheap mid pricers $280k or less, then select premiums.

Some good points, thank you.

I agree that having viable rookies is important, and naming them definitely helps. Alternately including a few at higher price points builds in a buffer. I currently have Alleer plus Daicos/JHF in this category.

Pre season will be interesting with just one televised game per side as I understand it. We could end up jumping at shadows!

 

[Torress]

@GrainFedBeef

I hope that’s right regarding Mitchell. I currently have Macrae, Mitchell, Neale and Rowell as M1-M4, with Berry, Constable, JHF and Daicos as my other on field mids.

It feels a bit shallow versus the 4-5 premium mids that some other sides will have, but the cash gen potential of my M4-8 seems very strong, and stronger than other lines except perhaps the forwards (and certainly greater depth of good options, from what I can see).

I have G Clark at M9, which feels slightly wasteful if he’s best 22 for WC. Do you have a view on that?

We all get a bit influenced on our recent performance's and our success rate in SC and what structure worked well, ect, and if our starting structure was 'the way to go' or not. I normally try and strike a balance, have 3 solid ubers in my team for C and VC - this was easy as it was gawn/grundy of recent years. However i've found last few seasons trying to bring in certain midfielders is so tough - trying to trade in macrae/steele would of cost too much. I'm going 5 full priced mids, atm titch is M5 to start with just so i dont have to trade them in. I realise a team out there who maximises value would best it, but that also is dependent on trading well. If rookies allow it is the question.

so i think you don't have to go too deep in the mids to be successful, and if you nail your selections especially in terms of value in relation to points then its fine. - Clark hopefully makes best 22.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Players averaging 100+ by position last season:

DEF: 7
MID: 28
RUC: 7*
FWD: 6*

Is 5 premium mids the way to go? There is significantly more depth on this line than any other. You can generally get better quality mids at a cheaper price than on other lines, and might be better off spending the cash on guns (at least 90+, close enough to top of line if you don't nail the best averaging players) elsewhere.

*Includes Strachan who played 2 games for a 100.5 average.

I think the challenge of this is the difference between top few players and the bottom of those groups is pronounced, with mids 28pts difference Vs defenders 16pts.

It is the same logic of picking a mid that may end up a weak m8, it will hurt you in the later part of the season. Better to use 110 for mids and rucks.

 

[Ironhawk]

I think the challenge of this is the difference between top few players and the bottom of those groups is pronounced, with mids 28pts difference Vs defenders 16pts.

It is the same logic of picking a mid that may end up a weak m8, it will hurt you in the later part of the season. Better to use 110 for mids and rucks.

You might be right. It'll be interesting to see what the results of my various starting teams comparison turns up. I wouldn't be shocked if the team where I went light on mids to start ends up doing quite well though (I am doing a comparison of 22 different starting structures for last season). I know it won't be the worst one, that's a certainty.

For those interested, I am still compiling data for that topic, it's a lot more work than I initially expected unfortunately. Hopefully I'll start posting results within a few days - I want to get most of the data collecting and analysis done before I go back to work on Tuesday now Christmas and New Year's is out of the way.

Looking at the analysis so far it looks like I was able to do quite well with picking the higher averaging defenders in general, forwards were a mess largely due to injuries (I think most people struggled with this last season), mids were a bit of a mixed bag - Neale and Cripps key culprits there in some teams. I put together the 22 teams before the start of the season, so there are definitely players left out I should have included in hindsight, but none are influenced by players performance during the season.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

You might be right. It'll be interesting to see what the results of my various starting teams comparison turns up. I wouldn't be shocked if the team where I went light on mids to start ends up doing quite well though (I am doing a comparison of 22 different starting structures for last season). I know it won't be the worst one, that's a certainty.

For those interested, I am still compiling data for that topic, it's a lot more work than I initially expected unfortunately. Hopefully I'll start posting results within a few days - I want to get most of the data collecting and analysis done before I go back to work on Tuesday now Christmas and New Year's is out of the way.

Looking at the analysis so far it looks like I was able to do quite well with picking the higher averaging defenders in general, forwards were a mess largely due to injuries (I think most people struggled with this last season), mids were a bit of a mixed bag - Neale and Cripps key culprits there in some teams. I put together the 22 teams before the start of the season, so there are definitely players left out I should have included in hindsight, but none are influenced by players performance during the season.

I have no doubt the best structure last season was likely 2 premium rucks and 4 defenders and also 4 mids. Rookies determined this.

Whilst Neale and Cripps hurt (I had Neale), Lloyd also hurt. Dunkley Danger and Dusty hurt too and a mid price fwd line was the best way to go.

Challenge is there has been less consistency in defenders over a number of years vs mids which can make it challenging if a premium doesnt perform to expectations. Whilst I may want 5 premium mids, expect I go with 4 as rookie and midprice defenders have been shallow in depth in recent years.

Good luck with the analysis, look forward to what comes out.

Edit: best structure would be less fwds, probably 1 premium fwd, 4 def, 5 mids and 2 rucks. Then daniher, ziebell, impey and butts down back.

 

[lipsunited]

Just playing around with structure atm. Rowell and preuss vs ROB and rookie

 

[BIGB0Y]

Just playing around with structure atm. Rowell and preuss vs ROB and rookie

None off them

 

[Torress]

Just playing around with structure atm. Rowell and preuss vs ROB and rookie

I am so on and off with Rowell, those massive scores were in 2020, reduced quarters and by memory if you got amongst the action early it inflated your score in 2020. So i keep thinking the expectation needs to be tempered a bit because of that. Then he just seems very likely to be one of the top 4 mids at the suns and playing on ball, so the role is fine. Then he has had a shoulder and a knee injury already.
Awkward price, really awkward - best scenario i imagine is a 105 average, surely if he gets a knock to shoulder/knee he is likely to miss games.

I personally haven't been able to fit him into any team so far but i keep considering him - if berry is up and about i like that pick more for a stepping stone.
Can anyone remember oliver's price in his 2nd season, i think he was mid 300k and if you had started him it was happy days with an 111 average - could this guy do a similar thing

 

[Connoisseur]

Just playing around with structure atm. Rowell and preuss vs ROB and rookie

What are your expectations for R O’Brien?

Poor hitout to advantage rate over the past three seasons, average disposal efficiency and with their recent recruitments, the game style to be adopted by the Crows might not be fantasy conducive for O’Brien to register enough marks and disposals to break into the top ruck tier.

 

[Davos61]

Post your early thoughts for 2022 AFL SC here!

I’ll kick off:

Jayden Short will be worth strong consideration, especially if Houli isn’t in the side.

Post your early thoughts for 2022 AFL SC here!

I’ll kick off:

Jayden Short will be worth strong consideration, especially if Houli isn’t in the side.

Being a Tiger boy had Shorty last year think he still value for money will be interesting where Tarrant is i think a good replacement for Astbury and can rebound well

 

[GrainFedBeef]

What are your expectations for R O’Brien?

Poor hitout to advantage rate over the past three seasons, average disposal efficiency and with their recent recruitments, the game style to be adopted by the Crows might not be fantasy conducive for O’Brien to register enough marks and disposals to break into the top ruck tier.

Thoughts on Witts? Discounted by circa $120-150k, akward price at $380 however rucks dont feel predictable this year.

 

[Darkie]

Being a Tiger boy had Shorty last year think he still value for money will be interesting where Tarrant is i think a good replacement for Astbury and can rebound well

Good to hear. He’s in my draft side!