Discussion 2022: Rate My Team

lavenderbandit · 6 Jan 2022

Hey team, my turn for a crack at an early season side! Thought I would share strategy before the team however, so here it goes – feedback very welcome!

I will be going for overall initially, hoping to recreate the 2020 season. Focus will be this over leagues, not that it impacts starting side much but definitely impact trading during year
No more than 3 breakout/spec picks in my starting line up
Rookies will ultimately determine structure, but aiming for 1-2 onfield rookies in Def and FWD, more in mids generally the go
Keepers – initially pick those with a good history of being injury free and missing very few games over the last few seasons. Some of my selections definitely go against this
Be prepared to trade hard early to get in that early season bolter/mid pricer/ rookie that I have missed. It will happen, you cant nail them all so I just accept that.

With that in mind, this means aiming for 13 keepers, 2-3 spec picks and rest rookies. Let’s see how this lands in the current version………
85k ITB, and some rookies are clearly random placeholder picks at present.

Commentary
Overall in my view I have 13 keepers, 2 mid pricers (milera and Cogs) and 15 rookies. You could have a different view and say that really butters/English and even DeG/sicily are mid pricers/spec picks but I’m relatively confident that they will end up top 10-12 in their relevant positions.

Def Lloyd/maynard happy with. Sic will watch during pre-season. No whitfield at present due to (perceived?) injury risk, but could swap him with either of sic or maynard. Milera too good a price to ignore if he survives pre-season. The biggest issue will be on-field rookies – will there actually be 2 reliable enough to play on field each week? If not I would ditch a premium on another line and bolster defence.

Mid 5 solid premiums, can easily switch up with Miller/steele/Bont etc. 2 top priced rooks, will watch pre-season like everyone else for remaining rookies. No Neale…..

To Neale or not to Neale? On one hand here is an ex-uber premium who can realistically be a top 2-3 mid by years end. On the other hand, late 20’s, calf injuries…. As we get closer if I need extra cash Merrett to Neale will be my first change. Probably my current biggest point of nervousness.

Rucks feel grundy is solid pick as top 2-3 ruck, with Darcy and Gawn other 2. must admit im very tempted by Darcy, as long as he doesnt look like Billy Brownless when he comes back from pre-season as he looks like he loves a pie or 14. Throw a blanket over him and grundy. NicNat – even tho I’m an eagle supporter with his injury history he’s not in the mix for mine.

English: surprised I haven’t seen him in more sides. Just turned 24 so getting closer to that real breakout year if you think he will ever have one. Has DPP so provides value as ruck cover. Averaged 91 post byes after his injury last year putting him in top 8 averages of those available this year. Has probably the best midfield under his feet. Another year older and wiser, hopefully he has that jump up to 100++. Can move forward during the year allowing the best ruck to be one of my early upgrades. Big in for me, or am I missing something?

Forward Dunkley could average 5-15 more than the next best mid by years end so with that price, even though injury prone hes a lock. Not a lot of other ‘premiums’ screaming “pick me” so with DeG (if he makes it back) and Butters looking like playing as mids in 2022 happy to pick them. Cogs – great value but you’ve burnt me more than once in the last few years so may as well give you one more chance, eventually it will pay off right?

Now to avoid the temptation to tinker relentlessly for the next few months!

Darkie · 6 Jan 2022

lavenderbandit said:

Hey team, my turn for a crack at an early season side! Thought I would share strategy before the team however, so here it goes – feedback very welcome!

I will be going for overall initially, hoping to recreate the 2020 season. Focus will be this over leagues, not that it impacts starting side much but definitely impact trading during year
No more than 3 breakout/spec picks in my starting line up
Rookies will ultimately determine structure, but aiming for 1-2 onfield rookies in Def and FWD, more in mids generally the go
Keepers – initially pick those with a good history of being injury free and missing very few games over the last few seasons. Some of my selections definitely go against this
Be prepared to trade hard early to get in that early season bolter/mid pricer/ rookie that I have missed. It will happen, you cant nail them all so I just accept that.

With that in mind, this means aiming for 13 keepers, 2-3 spec picks and rest rookies. Let’s see how this lands in the current version………
85k ITB, and some rookies are clearly random placeholder picks at present.

View attachment 37570

Commentary
Overall in my view I have 13 keepers, 2 mid pricers (milera and Cogs) and 15 rookies. You could have a different view and say that really butters/English and even DeG/sicily are mid pricers/spec picks but I’m relatively confident that they will end up top 10-12 in their relevant positions.

Def Lloyd/maynard happy with. Sic will watch during pre-season. No whitfield at present due to (perceived?) injury risk, but could swap him with either of sic or maynard. Milera too good a price to ignore if he survives pre-season. The biggest issue will be on-field rookies – will there actually be 2 reliable enough to play on field each week? If not I would ditch a premium on another line and bolster defence.

Mid 5 solid premiums, can easily switch up with Miller/steele/Bont etc. 2 top priced rooks, will watch pre-season like everyone else for remaining rookies. No Neale…..

To Neale or not to Neale? On one hand here is an ex-uber premium who can realistically be a top 2-3 mid by years end. On the other hand, late 20’s, calf injuries…. As we get closer if I need extra cash Merrett to Neale will be my first change. Probably my current biggest point of nervousness.

Rucks feel grundy is solid pick as top 2-3 ruck, with Darcy and Gawn other 2. must admit im very tempted by Darcy, as long as he doesnt look like Billy Brownless when he comes back from pre-season as he looks like he loves a pie or 14. Throw a blanket over him and grundy. NicNat – even tho I’m an eagle supporter with his injury history he’s not in the mix for mine.

English: surprised I haven’t seen him in more sides. Just turned 24 so getting closer to that real breakout year if you think he will ever have one. Has DPP so provides value as ruck cover. Averaged 91 post byes after his injury last year putting him in top 8 averages of those available this year. Has probably the best midfield under his feet. Another year older and wiser, hopefully he has that jump up to 100++. Can move forward during the year allowing the best ruck to be one of my early upgrades. Big in for me, or am I missing something?

Forward Dunkley could average 5-15 more than the next best mid by years end so with that price, even though injury prone hes a lock. Not a lot of other ‘premiums’ screaming “pick me” so with DeG (if he makes it back) and Butters looking like playing as mids in 2022 happy to pick them. Cogs – great value but you’ve burnt me more than once in the last few years so may as well give you one more chance, eventually it will pay off right?

Now to avoid the temptation to tinker relentlessly for the next few months!

An excellent writeup, and your description of your approach is almost identical to mine.

I like a lot of your individual picks too.

Neale seems like the main divergence in our approach so far. I can see your point of view, although for me he was one of my first picked, so it will be interesting to see how he goes!

As soon as I saw English at R2 with DPP, and at a price that implies a high 80s average, I wondered why I hadn’t thought of that. I currently have Gawndy, but can see significant benefit in being able to choose my second keeper ruck later. I will likely weigh up this tradeoff, but I really like the idea at this stage.

My view is that someone like Sicily isn’t a midpricer or speculative pick, regardless of price point, given his previous record. For me he’s clearly a fallen premium, it’s just a question of whether he will bounce back this season. I suspect he probably will, but there seems to be a bit more role uncertainty than I’d like to be really confident. He seems quite a viable pick though, and outside of any role risk/fitness concern would again be one of my first picked.

Looks very solid to me, well done.

randomcliche · 6 Jan 2022

lavenderbandit said:

Beautiful work there. To not Neale. I think this could be season defining. His ownership, assuming a good pre-season, will be sky high. Let's not wish this upon him, but a calf in round 7 when everyone is trying to upgrade... and if you can slot those funds into a premium defender or forward who goes on a tear in the early part of the season, then that will really set you up. What it really needs is that to combine with a run of injuries to other popular players to really cause havoc.

Merrett is interesting. I've owned him a number of times. Not likely to start for for me. I don't know who out of him or Parish will be top dog.

FWIW I don't get the Tim E selection. His 101 year was pre Steph Martin. If Steph goes down, and they actually put him in the ruck, which they only did kicking and screaming (because the ruck work was so dysfunctional) at the end of last season...but they also had Aaron Naughton holding FF in the absence of Josh Bruce...so they might make a different decision with a fully fit forward line...TLDR; only if Martin is unfit, injured in the pre-season then its a strong consideration, otherwise won't make required $$$.

As for sneaking in not one but two $102k players...not prudent. I didn't start a FD last season, I probably won't this year either.

As for the cash upgrade I also subscribe that you can afford to target ultra premo. It's just that sometimes there isn't a UP D5,6/F5,6 to buy and your choosing from a bunch of largely similar scoring players. Like you identify with Dunks he could well be in his own bracket. I suspect Duncan might join him with daylight to D3-6.

mpollock · 6 Jan 2022

v0.4
B: Lloyd, Whitfield, Bramble, Day, Aleer, Gould (Kelly, Dean)
M: Macrae, Oliver, Walsh, Neale, Rowell, Constable, Horne-Francis, Daicos (Johnson, Clark, Velente)
R: Gawn, Grundy (Hayes)
F: Duncan, Treloar, Taranto, Coniglio, Hollands, De Koning (J.Clarke, Peris)

Really debating between:

Grundy, Hayes, Rowell
or
Duncan, Reeves, Preuss

As of now leaning towards the Grundy option. 11 premiums either way.

Will be watching Rowell, Day, Bramble and Coniglio closely in the pre season.

Manikato1 · 6 Jan 2022

lavenderbandit said:

Hey team, my turn for a crack at an early season side! Thought I would share strategy before the team however, so here it goes – feedback very welcome!

I will be going for overall initially, hoping to recreate the 2020 season. Focus will be this over leagues, not that it impacts starting side much but definitely impact trading during year
No more than 3 breakout/spec picks in my starting line up
Rookies will ultimately determine structure, but aiming for 1-2 onfield rookies in Def and FWD, more in mids generally the go
Keepers – initially pick those with a good history of being injury free and missing very few games over the last few seasons. Some of my selections definitely go against this
Be prepared to trade hard early to get in that early season bolter/mid pricer/ rookie that I have missed. It will happen, you cant nail them all so I just accept that.

With that in mind, this means aiming for 13 keepers, 2-3 spec picks and rest rookies. Let’s see how this lands in the current version………
85k ITB, and some rookies are clearly random placeholder picks at present.

View attachment 37570

Commentary
Overall in my view I have 13 keepers, 2 mid pricers (milera and Cogs) and 15 rookies. You could have a different view and say that really butters/English and even DeG/sicily are mid pricers/spec picks but I’m relatively confident that they will end up top 10-12 in their relevant positions.

Def Lloyd/maynard happy with. Sic will watch during pre-season. No whitfield at present due to (perceived?) injury risk, but could swap him with either of sic or maynard. Milera too good a price to ignore if he survives pre-season. The biggest issue will be on-field rookies – will there actually be 2 reliable enough to play on field each week? If not I would ditch a premium on another line and bolster defence.

Mid 5 solid premiums, can easily switch up with Miller/steele/Bont etc. 2 top priced rooks, will watch pre-season like everyone else for remaining rookies. No Neale…..

To Neale or not to Neale? On one hand here is an ex-uber premium who can realistically be a top 2-3 mid by years end. On the other hand, late 20’s, calf injuries…. As we get closer if I need extra cash Merrett to Neale will be my first change. Probably my current biggest point of nervousness.

Rucks feel grundy is solid pick as top 2-3 ruck, with Darcy and Gawn other 2. must admit im very tempted by Darcy, as long as he doesnt look like Billy Brownless when he comes back from pre-season as he looks like he loves a pie or 14. Throw a blanket over him and grundy. NicNat – even tho I’m an eagle supporter with his injury history he’s not in the mix for mine.

English: surprised I haven’t seen him in more sides. Just turned 24 so getting closer to that real breakout year if you think he will ever have one. Has DPP so provides value as ruck cover. Averaged 91 post byes after his injury last year putting him in top 8 averages of those available this year. Has probably the best midfield under his feet. Another year older and wiser, hopefully he has that jump up to 100++. Can move forward during the year allowing the best ruck to be one of my early upgrades. Big in for me, or am I missing something?

Forward Dunkley could average 5-15 more than the next best mid by years end so with that price, even though injury prone hes a lock. Not a lot of other ‘premiums’ screaming “pick me” so with DeG (if he makes it back) and Butters looking like playing as mids in 2022 happy to pick them. Cogs – great value but you’ve burnt me more than once in the last few years so may as well give you one more chance, eventually it will pay off right?

Now to avoid the temptation to tinker relentlessly for the next few months!

Like this this team. And the English pick. Might steal that idea for my own team. I am already on about version 15. This might be about the most fund we have this season with covid set to decimate the fixtures I suspect. I hope not but...

As for tinkering with teams - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, SC Coach.

pizza safety · 7 Jan 2022

Thoughts welcome. The Marshall pick is one that's not set in stone, I think Preuss will be my R2 if he looks good and set play round 1 and Darcy will reluctantly be my pick if Marshall's body isn't 100%

Screen Shot 2022-01-07 at 12.16.00 am.png

Connoisseur · 7 Jan 2022

pizza safety said:

What are your expectations for Taranto and in which statistical categories do you expect enough improvement to warrant the starting selection? Low ceiling and prone to throw in several sub 80 scores which could be common early on with the suspension of Greene, if Taranto plays forward again. Should be available around the mid $400,000 range before the byes and I feel he is suited as an upgrade target. Bar that selection, not much else to fault at this stage.

pizza safety · 7 Jan 2022

Connoisseur said:

I can't argue with the fact he has a low ceiling and is a player who seems ill suited to supercoach but I consider him a very safe pick with a little bit of upside to hit the 105 average with increased mid time. He could play more forward time with Greene out, or that time could go to Coniglio, or someone else. Even with more forward time last year he didn't kick that many goals so it's unclear whether that would continue. I suspect Ward could lose some midfield time to Taranto next year.

If Preuss is viable to start at R2 I would have Butters in over him and bring in another premium mid.

Manikato1 · 7 Jan 2022

The result of stealing the idea of the English pick from @lavenderbandit and some tinkering. Not sure I could get away with this as the rookies will dictate other selections. Have $10,600 left over.

OnTopBar · 7 Jan 2022

Manikato1 said:

You're right about the rookies, probably don't have enough banked.

I'm interested to hear your thoughts on Yo-Yo and whether he'll bounce back (pardon the pun)

Sam Taylor is an interesting selection, he had 7/19 scores below 80 last year with 23, 35, 51 & 55 amongst them. I assume those scores occurred because of a lockdown role, I like the player and reckon he's a gun, it's just that I don't see him as a keeper or a player that'll make enough $ to warrant his selection, happy to be corrected on my opinion though. TBH I see Jackson, English, Day and Lukosius all in that range, I've looked at all of them, bar Day and Taylor for my side too.

BIGB0Y · 7 Jan 2022

pizza safety said:

Very tempted to go preuss as well, if it fails though due to form or another injury it could go bad. Do you think Hobbs will get a go in round 1?

Bontempele · 7 Jan 2022

Connoisseur said:

pizza safety said:

Tend to agree with Pizza here - I think Taranto will probably just keep playing midfield and they'll play someone like Lloyd more often to replace Greene. However, I think the potential downside is probably really large, even if the probability of that happening is small, so I'd say it's worth sticking to Dunkley and Duncan as safer options. Not a lot between Duncan and Taranto though, given Duncan could conceivably do a Sidebottom and totally fall away (or he could do a Zorko and dominate!).

Connoisseur · 7 Jan 2022

pizza safety said:

Prefer Duncan as a much safer selection as it is very hard to envisage Taranto getting close to 105 as he will likely top out around 100-102.5 due to his poor disposal efficiency and you will be heavily reliant on him averaging 28+ disposals and 6 tackles across the season to reach around that 105 range. Duncan has far greater upside, more proven scoring history, dual position status, greater consistency, a far more friendly SuperCoach game style and less likely to disappoint as a starting selection or require a trade.

OnTopBar · 7 Jan 2022

Connoisseur said:

TT averaged 102 to round 16 including 6 tackles/game he then averaged 86 and 4.2 tackles/game in the proceeding 9 games including finals, 2 of those games with 0 tackles. I do think he was carrying a shoulder injury which inhibited his tackling.

PC · 7 Jan 2022

OnTopBar said:

His shoulders are normally taped up like Christmas presents, seems they are a bit injury susceptible.

Under The Dome · 7 Jan 2022

Under The Dome said:

Made a few changes to hopefully minimise the risk. Relying on 2 rookies onfield back and front. Martin is my flexible player.
He can be taken down to any of Treloar, De Goey, Thomas, Heeney, Butters or can be split into something like Gresham + Milera + 50k.

lavenderbandit · 7 Jan 2022

Manikato1 said:

definitely don't consider anything "stolen" haha, mate the awesome thing about this site is the free sharing of ideas! The things i like about the English selection is i) he doesn't need a huge improvement to be top 10 FWD ii) the flexibility it provides both to get a look at the best rucks for the year rather than selecting both straight up, as for the first time in a while the top 2 are not clear cut with Grawdy, Darcy, NN and even OMac in the mix plus and you can move him forward once you are ready to upgrade to your 2nd ruck and iii) the potential ruck DPP cover through the year in what will almost certainly be a covid disrupted year like what's happening in the BBL.

as you say dont think you could actaully roll with that sie probably 2-3 too many spec picks, but Luke Jackson an interesting one who you have there. Wouldn't select him myself as he will always sit behind Gawn but dont see how the Dees cant have him as best 22 every week now after his performance in the back end of the year and esp in the finals. might look in to him a bit more.

probably not the right thread but anyone else thinking we might end up with more trades overall and each week from the start to allow for covid issues? i have zero insider knowledge on this, just pure speculation on my behalf.

BIGB0Y · 7 Jan 2022

Under The Dome said:

Made a few changes to hopefully minimise the risk. Relying on 2 rookies onfield back and front. Martin is my flexible player.
He can be taken down to any of Treloar, De Goey, Thomas,Heeney, Butters or can be split into something like Gresham + Milera + 50k.

View attachment 37640

Nice team

Torress · 7 Jan 2022

Connoisseur said:

I agree duncan a better pick than taranto for same reasons. I will add the eye test, i don't see Duncan doing much wrong, where i could see taranto making errors and stressing us out if an owner - Taranto upgrade target for mine too

Under The Dome · 7 Jan 2022

BIGB0Y said:

Thankyou

Discussion 2022: Rate My Team

lavenderbandit

Darkie

Leadership Group

randomcliche

mpollock

Manikato1

pizza safety

Connoisseur

Leadership Group

pizza safety

Manikato1

OnTopBar

BIGB0Y

Bontempele

Connoisseur

Leadership Group

OnTopBar

PC

Under The Dome

lavenderbandit

BIGB0Y

Torress

Under The Dome