Position 2022: Ruck Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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Looking at his stats from last year: Wins 46.1% of hitouts, 27.5% to advantage. Very similar numbers to Ceglar (see post 16) who he will likely be replacing. You would hope to see some improvement as he gets a bit more experience, so based on that, he should be an upgrade on Ceglar. I like that.
I expect at this stage he will be the #1 ruck as Manikato1 mentioned, with McEvoy playing more of a secondary role as he comes to the end of his career - similar to what was planned with Mummy last year. Lynch is also looking good in training so far, but I expect he is more backup than #1 ruck this year, at least initially. I fully expect Lynch will get games this year, planning for when McEvoy retires, but he probably won't play every round. They've only been back training for a week post Christmas, so it's too early to say for sure what the preferred ruck set up is.
I definitely see upside on his starting price, and he is in my list of rucks I am considering but it's not a line I like to stuff around with. I think I'd prefer a keeper rather than a stepping stone but waiting on SC to open before I put together my team.
I expect at this stage he will be the #1 ruck as Manikato1 mentioned, with McEvoy playing more of a secondary role as he comes to the end of his career - similar to what was planned with Mummy last year. Lynch is also looking good in training so far, but I expect he is more backup than #1 ruck this year, at least initially. I fully expect Lynch will get games this year, planning for when McEvoy retires, but he probably won't play every round. They've only been back training for a week post Christmas, so it's too early to say for sure what the preferred ruck set up is.
I definitely see upside on his starting price, and he is in my list of rucks I am considering but it's not a line I like to stuff around with. I think I'd prefer a keeper rather than a stepping stone but waiting on SC to open before I put together my team.
Thank you gentlemen, I appreciate the intel and thoughts.
I'm trying to go with a value approach this year as well as limiting my onfield rookies in def/fwd. I went full guns n rooks last year and struggled to complete my team as well as stay with the pack in the early rounds. If there's value to be had then I'm not averse to accessing it even on the ruckline.
Starting with Witts at R1, a 100 average would see him make around 120k. Reeves at R2 with an average of 90 would see him make around the same. Preuss at R3 with an average of 80 would see him make around 150k. At their current prices I save 450k (if I started Gawndy/Hayes instead) which has been used to promote D4 to Rioli, D5 to Coleman and F5 to Cogs. If my rucks hit their forecasted averages then it will take 3 trades to upgrade to the likes of Grundy and Darcy/Gawn.
Rioli, Coleman and Cogs should or could average 90, 80 and 85 respectively, gaining enough $ to upgrade to a top 8 premo on their lines. Those upgrades would come at the cost of 6 trades as opposed to 9-12 trades to get a rookie priced player up to the same level. The saved trades are basically used on the ruckline but the scoring of those 3 players should more than compensate for the loss of scoring from my 2 onfield rucks.
I'll be running with 5 onfield rookies and would envisage using at least 15 trades to get them to a top 8 or so premo. My ideal scenario would have 1 or 2 of Witts/Rioli/Cogs get to that level saving both trades and $ which have a tumble down effect on other upgrades.
I'm trying to go with a value approach this year as well as limiting my onfield rookies in def/fwd. I went full guns n rooks last year and struggled to complete my team as well as stay with the pack in the early rounds. If there's value to be had then I'm not averse to accessing it even on the ruckline.
Starting with Witts at R1, a 100 average would see him make around 120k. Reeves at R2 with an average of 90 would see him make around the same. Preuss at R3 with an average of 80 would see him make around 150k. At their current prices I save 450k (if I started Gawndy/Hayes instead) which has been used to promote D4 to Rioli, D5 to Coleman and F5 to Cogs. If my rucks hit their forecasted averages then it will take 3 trades to upgrade to the likes of Grundy and Darcy/Gawn.
Rioli, Coleman and Cogs should or could average 90, 80 and 85 respectively, gaining enough $ to upgrade to a top 8 premo on their lines. Those upgrades would come at the cost of 6 trades as opposed to 9-12 trades to get a rookie priced player up to the same level. The saved trades are basically used on the ruckline but the scoring of those 3 players should more than compensate for the loss of scoring from my 2 onfield rucks.
I'll be running with 5 onfield rookies and would envisage using at least 15 trades to get them to a top 8 or so premo. My ideal scenario would have 1 or 2 of Witts/Rioli/Cogs get to that level saving both trades and $ which have a tumble down effect on other upgrades.
Now I love a guy with a plan. I hope it works for you. I do. I would observe imo the following
The ruck line is the hardest line to fix if it goes pear shaped
To go Witts/Reeves you need a certain fallback position if something bad happens. I do not think Preuss is it but kudos to you if you think he is the guy. The chances of picking up a mid priced ruck at short notice that scores okay because you copped a ruck injury (eg Witts) are questionable.
I am not sure of your midfield but imo you need at least 3 clear go to captain options each week. Nearly always one of those options is the R1 because top rucks constantly score big and having the C on them gives a big advantage. You could not rely on any of those rucks to take the C. Are you starting say at least Macrae, Steele and Oliver/Bont?
The guys you mention you are bringing in all come with risk. Probably not so much Cogs. He is much more like the Zeibell/Hall scenario of last year. Known players that for some reason are cheap but can go big and/or have a role change. Rioli has never gone big (one ton in 3 seasons) and it is unknown if the role change will produce the SC scores we would all want. Likewise Coleman.
While you do not want to start too many rookies, they are your easiest cash generation-provided you get the right ones. So you need enough of them to make money. You have Coleman pegged at around 80. He needs to be around 86/87 to make $150k. A $117 rookie only needs to ave around 58/60 to do that. Plus the $150k Coleman makes still only gets you to just over $400k so you still need to find at least $100-150k to get a top defender. But Coleman probably has better job security than many rookies.
I have no desire to steal the jam out of your donut and if what you propose came off it would be huge. But from past experience I think it will be very hard to get that many speculative picks right. Good luck.
The ruck line is the hardest line to fix if it goes pear shaped
To go Witts/Reeves you need a certain fallback position if something bad happens. I do not think Preuss is it but kudos to you if you think he is the guy. The chances of picking up a mid priced ruck at short notice that scores okay because you copped a ruck injury (eg Witts) are questionable.
I am not sure of your midfield but imo you need at least 3 clear go to captain options each week. Nearly always one of those options is the R1 because top rucks constantly score big and having the C on them gives a big advantage. You could not rely on any of those rucks to take the C. Are you starting say at least Macrae, Steele and Oliver/Bont?
The guys you mention you are bringing in all come with risk. Probably not so much Cogs. He is much more like the Zeibell/Hall scenario of last year. Known players that for some reason are cheap but can go big and/or have a role change. Rioli has never gone big (one ton in 3 seasons) and it is unknown if the role change will produce the SC scores we would all want. Likewise Coleman.
While you do not want to start too many rookies, they are your easiest cash generation-provided you get the right ones. So you need enough of them to make money. You have Coleman pegged at around 80. He needs to be around 86/87 to make $150k. A $117 rookie only needs to ave around 58/60 to do that. Plus the $150k Coleman makes still only gets you to just over $400k so you still need to find at least $100-150k to get a top defender. But Coleman probably has better job security than many rookies.
I have no desire to steal the jam out of your donut and if what you propose came off it would be huge. But from past experience I think it will be very hard to get that many speculative picks right. Good luck.
He's played 3 games in the last two years. He'd be lucky to have played 50 games in total at any level in the last 6 years. This hardly screams a match hardened body ready to play 22 games of AFL football.
I believe he'll get regular rests to ensure he gets through the season. Others may disagree, and that he'll play all games, or at least, all games to the bye to make his selection at R2 viable.
I believe he'll get regular rests to ensure he gets through the season. Others may disagree, and that he'll play all games, or at least, all games to the bye to make his selection at R2 viable.
Absolutely love a well thought out plan, but it feels too stacked towards optimism to be something I'd be super confident in.
I was looking at Witts as well, but I feel his discount is just not big enough to justify the risk. You have him averaging 100: In 9 seasons as an AFL ruck, Witts has done that once. In his 4 mostly full seasons at the Suns he averaged 94, 88, 100 and 93 - so I'll give you 94, which means he makes about $80k. Given the injury risk as well, that's not a great pick: you'd be much better off just starting a premium and taking a rookie elsewhere.
I was looking at Witts as well, but I feel his discount is just not big enough to justify the risk. You have him averaging 100: In 9 seasons as an AFL ruck, Witts has done that once. In his 4 mostly full seasons at the Suns he averaged 94, 88, 100 and 93 - so I'll give you 94, which means he makes about $80k. Given the injury risk as well, that's not a great pick: you'd be much better off just starting a premium and taking a rookie elsewhere.
This is what I like about this site, people willing to give there time and effort with an unbiased slant in response to questions/statements, so thank you.
I'm not trying to convince anyone about my take on things, it's more about establishing in my own mind that my strategy might have some merit, so to just counterpoint some of your points.
A fallback position for me if Witts goes down ( a big man coming back off an ACL certainly has risk attached) then I can drop say a Sicily type down to a performing rookie and get one of the big dogs as R1 (I'm happy to use Preuss in this role if he's rolling ok) so 2 trades for the Sicily solution as against 1 for Preuss. Of course I don't have to use Sicily if he's performing well, there will probably be an underperforming premo in my team anyway.
I have Mitchell, Walsh, Petracca, Jelly and Neale in the mids with Lloyd back and Dunkley forward. There's certainly a cost in not having that R1 as a C option for those rounds until I can upgrade.
Coleman is an interesting one and his position in my team is completely reliant on him maintaining the role that he had for the last 3 rounds of the year where he averaged 85, I'd be stoked if he kept that up because, as you said, I'd only need a maxxed out rookie to trade both to a top defender, whereas I'd need 3 rookies at least to achieve the same outcome. It's exactly the same line of thought that I'm using for Rioli, in 5 of his last 6 games he averaged 91 (excluding a 54 because of 7 clangers). The combined benefit of those 2 players over rookies is possibly 65 points/round for around the same cash generation as well as using 2-3 less trades in turning them into premo defenders, the other advantage that those 2 provide is the DPP flexibility in tandem with De Koning, Skinner and Kelly. Cogs to me is a no brainer.
The combination of Cogs, Rioli and Coleman replacing rookies could be around 100 pts/rnd somewhat compensating for my weak ruckline, but come upgrade time (and with a bit of luck) I could add a premo/week using just 2 trades/week for 4 weeks hopefully putting me ahead of the pack and only needing 5 more upgrades to complete my team.
I'm relying on 5 speculative picks to achieve averages that they have either proven to have done in the past or should do given the roles that they have been pegged for. I actually feel that I'm taking more risk with players like Sicily, Maynard, Heeney and Thomas (who aren't set in stone as picks yet)
I'm not trying to convince anyone about my take on things, it's more about establishing in my own mind that my strategy might have some merit, so to just counterpoint some of your points.
A fallback position for me if Witts goes down ( a big man coming back off an ACL certainly has risk attached) then I can drop say a Sicily type down to a performing rookie and get one of the big dogs as R1 (I'm happy to use Preuss in this role if he's rolling ok) so 2 trades for the Sicily solution as against 1 for Preuss. Of course I don't have to use Sicily if he's performing well, there will probably be an underperforming premo in my team anyway.
I have Mitchell, Walsh, Petracca, Jelly and Neale in the mids with Lloyd back and Dunkley forward. There's certainly a cost in not having that R1 as a C option for those rounds until I can upgrade.
Coleman is an interesting one and his position in my team is completely reliant on him maintaining the role that he had for the last 3 rounds of the year where he averaged 85, I'd be stoked if he kept that up because, as you said, I'd only need a maxxed out rookie to trade both to a top defender, whereas I'd need 3 rookies at least to achieve the same outcome. It's exactly the same line of thought that I'm using for Rioli, in 5 of his last 6 games he averaged 91 (excluding a 54 because of 7 clangers). The combined benefit of those 2 players over rookies is possibly 65 points/round for around the same cash generation as well as using 2-3 less trades in turning them into premo defenders, the other advantage that those 2 provide is the DPP flexibility in tandem with De Koning, Skinner and Kelly. Cogs to me is a no brainer.
The combination of Cogs, Rioli and Coleman replacing rookies could be around 100 pts/rnd somewhat compensating for my weak ruckline, but come upgrade time (and with a bit of luck) I could add a premo/week using just 2 trades/week for 4 weeks hopefully putting me ahead of the pack and only needing 5 more upgrades to complete my team.
I'm relying on 5 speculative picks to achieve averages that they have either proven to have done in the past or should do given the roles that they have been pegged for. I actually feel that I'm taking more risk with players like Sicily, Maynard, Heeney and Thomas (who aren't set in stone as picks yet)
I see it as Preuss will be rested up forward, not missing games.
GWS's GM recently said that Preuss will be fighting for the prime ruck position with Briggs and Flynn, but I would like to hear what their Coach, Cameron, thinks?
I haven't seen many AFL games last year, but from what I saw, Flynn and Briggs didn't look AFL ready to me. They couldn't even replace Mumford as the prime ruckman.
"...........My body is well and truly destroyed," Mumford (35yo) told AAP ahead of Saturday's elimination final against Sydney in Launceston.........."
By AAP on Aug 24, 2021
I see a fit Preuss as the clear favourite to be GWS prime ruckman, unless Flynn or Briggs have greatly improved over Summer, which I haven't read.
My only concern is, as you pointed out, that Pruess is injury prone, that is why I am thinking of starting him as a R3, not as a R2.
GWS's GM recently said that Preuss will be fighting for the prime ruck position with Briggs and Flynn, but I would like to hear what their Coach, Cameron, thinks?
I haven't seen many AFL games last year, but from what I saw, Flynn and Briggs didn't look AFL ready to me. They couldn't even replace Mumford as the prime ruckman.
"...........My body is well and truly destroyed," Mumford (35yo) told AAP ahead of Saturday's elimination final against Sydney in Launceston.........."
By AAP on Aug 24, 2021
I see a fit Preuss as the clear favourite to be GWS prime ruckman, unless Flynn or Briggs have greatly improved over Summer, which I haven't read.
My only concern is, as you pointed out, that Pruess is injury prone, that is why I am thinking of starting him as a R3, not as a R2.