Position 2022: Midfield Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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How is it that there's easily 8 mids I could happily start with fairly high confidence they won't go wrong (Steele, Macrae, Oliver, Miller, Walsh, Petracca, Titchell, Neale) but barely anyone on the other lines that doesn't have a question over them?
If it wasn't for rookies I'd just pick those guys and mid-pricer the rest
If it wasn't for rookies I'd just pick those guys and mid-pricer the rest
How is it that there's easily 8 mids I could happily start with fairly high confidence they won't go wrong (Steele, Macrae, Oliver, Miller, Walsh, Petracca, Titchell, Neale) but barely anyone on the other lines that doesn't have a question over them?
If it wasn't for rookies I'd just pick those guys and mid-pricer the rest
If it wasn't for rookies I'd just pick those guys and mid-pricer the rest
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How is it that there's easily 8 mids I could happily start with fairly high confidence they won't go wrong (Steele, Macrae, Oliver, Miller, Walsh, Petracca, Titchell, Neale) but barely anyone on the other lines that doesn't have a question over them?
If it wasn't for rookies I'd just pick those guys and mid-pricer the rest
If it wasn't for rookies I'd just pick those guys and mid-pricer the rest
Do it.
How is it that there's easily 8 mids I could happily start with fairly high confidence they won't go wrong (Steele, Macrae, Oliver, Miller, Walsh, Petracca, Titchell, Neale) but barely anyone on the other lines that doesn't have a question over them?
If it wasn't for rookies I'd just pick those guys and mid-pricer the rest
If it wasn't for rookies I'd just pick those guys and mid-pricer the rest
How is it that there's easily 8 mids I could happily start with fairly high confidence they won't go wrong (Steele, Macrae, Oliver, Miller, Walsh, Petracca, Titchell, Neale) but barely anyone on the other lines that doesn't have a question over them?
If it wasn't for rookies I'd just pick those guys and mid-pricer the rest
If it wasn't for rookies I'd just pick those guys and mid-pricer the rest
I don’t have a major concern with this structure. My main observations would be:
(1) Kelly sticks out a bit to me, as a player who I see as a rung below those you have, and the key names you are forgoing, considering his durability. I would prefer a forward or defender if you need a premium at or below that price.
(2) There could be some good additional cash cows in the midfield, so going lighter there might work well.
(1) Kelly sticks out a bit to me, as a player who I see as a rung below those you have, and the key names you are forgoing, considering his durability. I would prefer a forward or defender if you need a premium at or below that price.
(2) There could be some good additional cash cows in the midfield, so going lighter there might work well.
Perfectly viable but it's very high risk.
You've currently got 3 upgrade slots and you've shaded the top 6 scorers from last year, it's rarely a constant but given who is in the group I don't think it's outrageous to say 4 of them are probably in the top 6 range again.
If say Walsh, Kelly and Petracca all end up in the below 115 range and the above happens then you're leaking points to guys who will most likely be among the most popular starting picks this year. Kelly I think in particular is very high risk given he will be very unique, has durability issues and has never hit the 120 mark, his best season being at the top 8 cutoff point, admittedly there is value there if he can get back to that but a lot of risk.
The upgrade aspect is actually perfectly viable, those guys are so highly priced and with the way the price changes work early they have to do some extreme things just to hold value.
For example, Macrae started last year priced at 121, averaged 126 through round 10 and was available for 30k less than his starting price. Steele started slowly and was available for 95k under his starting price. Oliver also started a bit slow and was 60k cheaper.
Yes they're harder upgrades but I think with the boosts they're easier to get than they've historically been.
The other hidden risk is you kind of have to get them by seasons end which means you're kind of locked out of whoever ends up being the ridiculous value guy, for example a Petracca at 500k type last year.
IMO, definitely has it in him. He's my second picked mid right now. I think he only just realised just how good he is on GF day and I think he will try and reinforce that this season. Not playing FF for half the season would sure help!
For mine, always the rookie to generate cash. If you don't have a loophole by round 3 without starting one then you're already having an enormous season and you're chasing the pointy end of the season. Throw in the covid factor this year and it seems inevitable to have multiple loops each week.
Throw in that the first few round loopholes are high risk anyway before you even know what rookies are going to do. I also say it as someone who is absolutely scarred from loopholes at this point given I've got a negative return on them in 3 of the last 4 seasons
You've currently got 3 upgrade slots and you've shaded the top 6 scorers from last year, it's rarely a constant but given who is in the group I don't think it's outrageous to say 4 of them are probably in the top 6 range again.
If say Walsh, Kelly and Petracca all end up in the below 115 range and the above happens then you're leaking points to guys who will most likely be among the most popular starting picks this year. Kelly I think in particular is very high risk given he will be very unique, has durability issues and has never hit the 120 mark, his best season being at the top 8 cutoff point, admittedly there is value there if he can get back to that but a lot of risk.
The upgrade aspect is actually perfectly viable, those guys are so highly priced and with the way the price changes work early they have to do some extreme things just to hold value.
For example, Macrae started last year priced at 121, averaged 126 through round 10 and was available for 30k less than his starting price. Steele started slowly and was available for 95k under his starting price. Oliver also started a bit slow and was 60k cheaper.
Yes they're harder upgrades but I think with the boosts they're easier to get than they've historically been.
The other hidden risk is you kind of have to get them by seasons end which means you're kind of locked out of whoever ends up being the ridiculous value guy, for example a Petracca at 500k type last year.
IMO, definitely has it in him. He's my second picked mid right now. I think he only just realised just how good he is on GF day and I think he will try and reinforce that this season. Not playing FF for half the season would sure help!
Is it better to start with a non-playing Capt Loop and generate more points,
or better to have an extra playing Rookie to generate more cash?
or better to have an extra playing Rookie to generate more cash?
Throw in that the first few round loopholes are high risk anyway before you even know what rookies are going to do. I also say it as someone who is absolutely scarred from loopholes at this point given I've got a negative return on them in 3 of the last 4 seasons
Overloading a position has the same constant hidden cost, you lock out value in that position.
For example last year I started 4 premium defenders and jumped on Cumming in round 2/3, this locked me out of May, Daniel and a couple of other bargains during the season who were "better" targets than some of the forward/ruck/mid guys I ended up having to chase when I sought value.
The other cost of doing it in the midfield is you leave yourself far more susceptible to chaos because you have a lower starting premium count and you probably force your hand into punting on a couple of midprice guys that further increases the risk factor. When you start 11 premiums you need 11 upgrades during the year, even at the lowest conceivable end, that's 22 trades, realistically I think you're looking at closer to ~26 trades. Only takes a couple of injuries, a few dead rookies and that quickly can spiral.
Having said that, I'm definitely leaning towards the tactic right now, hardest part I'm finding is which guys to pick and how much risk I take elsewhere to try and compensate for this.
Realistically it's all a fool's game right now because the rookies will dictate if this is even possible, if we end up with 7 mid rookies and nothing anywhere else we kind of get forced into it whether we want to or not!
For example last year I started 4 premium defenders and jumped on Cumming in round 2/3, this locked me out of May, Daniel and a couple of other bargains during the season who were "better" targets than some of the forward/ruck/mid guys I ended up having to chase when I sought value.
The other cost of doing it in the midfield is you leave yourself far more susceptible to chaos because you have a lower starting premium count and you probably force your hand into punting on a couple of midprice guys that further increases the risk factor. When you start 11 premiums you need 11 upgrades during the year, even at the lowest conceivable end, that's 22 trades, realistically I think you're looking at closer to ~26 trades. Only takes a couple of injuries, a few dead rookies and that quickly can spiral.
Having said that, I'm definitely leaning towards the tactic right now, hardest part I'm finding is which guys to pick and how much risk I take elsewhere to try and compensate for this.
Realistically it's all a fool's game right now because the rookies will dictate if this is even possible, if we end up with 7 mid rookies and nothing anywhere else we kind of get forced into it whether we want to or not!
He played defacto FF for the first 10 or so games and it really hurt his scoring, the sport is a lot harder when your opponent's sole job is trying to stop you doing anything effective.
From round 10 when Weideman came back through round 22 with Brown replacing him along the way his average was 118, if you include the finals it's 123. If you just go for the period that Brown was back it's 129 (135 with finals). That's a 12 (15) game sample to go with a whole season of it the year before after finally getting out of the forwards.
Same story that Martin has dealt with pretty much since his Brownlow year where he plays forward, gets the best defender and becomes far less consistent and far less effective. It's telling that Martin is in the best forward for a midfielder ever discussion and he's a 20SC a game worse player in that role, that's how much more difficult being a forward is than a midfielder. Makes sense really, it's like being tagged all game while also relying on others to even get the ball near you.
I actually think that he managed to match Dusty's output is kind of an outstanding effort more than a knock. When you consider a guy like Heeney dropped to the 70s playing the same role or Fyfe was down in the 80s it shows how hard that role really is.
From round 10 when Weideman came back through round 22 with Brown replacing him along the way his average was 118, if you include the finals it's 123. If you just go for the period that Brown was back it's 129 (135 with finals). That's a 12 (15) game sample to go with a whole season of it the year before after finally getting out of the forwards.
Same story that Martin has dealt with pretty much since his Brownlow year where he plays forward, gets the best defender and becomes far less consistent and far less effective. It's telling that Martin is in the best forward for a midfielder ever discussion and he's a 20SC a game worse player in that role, that's how much more difficult being a forward is than a midfielder. Makes sense really, it's like being tagged all game while also relying on others to even get the ball near you.
I actually think that he managed to match Dusty's output is kind of an outstanding effort more than a knock. When you consider a guy like Heeney dropped to the 70s playing the same role or Fyfe was down in the 80s it shows how hard that role really is.
Kelly shouldn't be a M/F. He should have never got it last year, played forward for a couple of halves and as infuriating as it was having him he was mostly just on a wing not influencing the game!
To be fair, a fit Kelly playing in position can score 120+ but him being fit seems to be more likely than Cameron playing him in position at this point. Cameron is like so many coaches before him, he hates what he was as a player and loves what he wasn't, which given he was a super skillful weapon and what he wasn't was a butchering bull is a bit unfortunate because Kelly, as a very similar type to himself, gets the shaft so the likes of Ward, Hopper and Taranto can get the prime time! Seriously though, I just can't see both those things going his way which is why he always ends up in the 110-115 range, still underpriced but with such a strong midfield group this year that's a gutsy range to be targeting with a starting pick when I think you can make upside cases on a lot of higher range guys that are similar to his 7-10 points range.
To be fair, a fit Kelly playing in position can score 120+ but him being fit seems to be more likely than Cameron playing him in position at this point. Cameron is like so many coaches before him, he hates what he was as a player and loves what he wasn't, which given he was a super skillful weapon and what he wasn't was a butchering bull is a bit unfortunate because Kelly, as a very similar type to himself, gets the shaft so the likes of Ward, Hopper and Taranto can get the prime time! Seriously though, I just can't see both those things going his way which is why he always ends up in the 110-115 range, still underpriced but with such a strong midfield group this year that's a gutsy range to be targeting with a starting pick when I think you can make upside cases on a lot of higher range guys that are similar to his 7-10 points range.