Position 2022: Ruck Discussion

[Toothless Tigers]

Braydon Preuss is finally fit again and ready to challenge Matt Flynn for the No.1 ruck mantle at Greater Western Sydney.

The former Demon and Kangaroo didn’t play a senior game in his first season last year at the Giants because of a significant shoulder injury, then a torn pectoral muscle.

It was a blow for him and GWS, given the club identified him as Shane Mumford’s ruck successor, with neither Flynn nor Kieren Briggs having played a game before 2021.

An ailing Mumford, who turns 36 in July, unexpectedly ended up playing 14 matches.

Preuss also developed lower back pain post-season that GWS medical staff initially tried to treat with injections before he went in for surgery in November.

“It sounds scary, but it’s not as big as it sounds – a few AFL players have had it, so it wasn’t too bad,” Preuss told News Corp.

“A disc was just pressing on a nerve (in my lower back), so they had to shave a bit of the disc away.

“I couldn’t do anything for about two months and I lost a bit there, around the core and the legs and whatnot, but I went for a few jogs pre-Christmas.”

Exacerbating Preuss’ rotten luck was his Covid diagnosis shortly after returning to training post-Christmas, which cost him another week in isolation.

He said the virus “cooked” him for the first day or so and impacted him with his running but he took part in match simulation on Thursday.

The challenge for the 26-year-old is not only staying healthy but increasing his fitness and strength bases in time for Round 1 to catch up to Flynn, who is in career-best shape.

“I’ve never been in a position where I felt more comfortable being the No.1 ruck, in terms of being stuck behind ‘Goldy’ (Todd Goldstein) and ‘Gawny’ (Max Gawn) my whole career,” Preuss said.

“That’s nothing against ‘Briggsy’ and ‘Flynny’. It definitely got to me badly last year, but it was good to see how Flynny’s developed and how he’s come back in the pre-season.

“But coming to a new club, I want to get myself in the team; earn my stripes and earn the respect.

“Games lost are games you never get back and I haven’t played in too many. I’ve nearly had more surgeries than games (18), which isn’t a bad stat.”

Preuss’ bruising playing style resembles the retired Mumford – now the ruck coach – more so than Flynn and Briggs, but it remains to be seen what Leon Cameron will do with his ruck trio.

“As of last week, I’m available for selection, which is nice, whether that’s forward-ruck, pure ruck or pure forward,” he said.

“If it was up to me, we’d play all rucks, but unfortunately it’s not.

“In my opinion, if you have ruckmen in the best 22 and there are two of them, you play them, because most ruckmen these days can play up forward, but I’ve got a bit of catching up to do.”

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/e...e/news-story/1ce065accb3b90803195054d89bd4693

 

[inwhiterooms]

Darcy and Grundy for me. Don’t mind the idea of Preuss R3 if possible. Not worth the headache having him R2 given Leon’s not afraid to play a little ruck roulette.

 

[dlanod]

He said the virus “cooked” him for the first day or so and impacted him with his running but he took part in match simulation on Thursday.

The challenge for the 26-year-old is not only staying healthy but increasing his fitness and strength bases in time for Round 1 to catch up to Flynn

That doesn't sound promising, given the easiest article to write is about player X tearing it up in the preseason.

 

[wogitalia]

That doesn't sound promising, given the easiest article to write is about player X tearing it up in the preseason.

For a puff piece it's got to be one of the most negative articles This injury, and that injury and then another injury and an illness and it wasn't that bad but I couldn't run for a month...

I still find myself looking for a path away from two premiums but I think this year that's where I'll end up. Would need another genuine option on the bench to cover for Preuss even if he does win the #1 gig.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Even if Preuss played Round 1 solo Im not convinced he'd start Round 2 the same, just a massive no from me.

 

[OnTopBar]

For a puff piece it's got to be one of the most negative articles This injury, and that injury and then another injury and an illness and it wasn't that bad but I couldn't run for a month...

I still find myself looking for a path away from two premiums but I think this year that's where I'll end up. Would need another genuine option on the bench to cover for Preuss even if he does win the #1 gig.

Do you see him as a viable R3? I have Reeves at R2 and really don't need much of an increase in both to get a topline ruck. I'm still nervous about both of them getting the No.1 ruck mantle but if they both do then I'll be starting them. The $ savings combined with Witts gives me a lot of depth on all of the other lines ie: Coleman at D5, Neale at M5 and Curnow at F6. I could also start Big O, Witts and Comben/Hayes, which is my fallback plan.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I reckon Xerri will be the one to look at, not Comben, had a massive pre season and Goldy can't do it forever.

 

[wogitalia]

Do you see him as a viable R3? I have Reeves at R2 and really don't need much of an increase in both to get a topline ruck. I'm still nervous about both of them getting the No.1 ruck mantle but if they both do then I'll be starting them. The $ savings combined with Witts gives me a lot of depth on all of the other lines ie: Coleman at D5, Neale at M5 and Curnow at F6. I could also start Big O, Witts and Comben/Hayes, which is my fallback plan.

It's a lot of cash but if you're not starting the safe picks then I think it's almost a necessary spend. Rucks have limited to no DPP cover (English the one who could change that at least) and only one bench spot, it makes it by far the most exposed position, it's very hard to cover a 1 week injury/rest/suspension. That's worth the premium if you're exposing yourself to players outside of the popular ones. If everyone cops a donut it's ok, if you're the only one then it's huge.

Rucks are just a really dangerous position to take risks. If things go wrong, your path to correction is generally very difficult.

If you take a punt on Heeney and he fails, there's probably another half dozen options, more with good DPP setup, available within 50k or a rookie downgrade target to hit as a bailout. If you take a punt on Witts and he fails, you are quite probably going to be left needing to find the 250k that week for the upgrade to the premiums, it's rare there is a rookie bailout, it's rare to have DPP options and it's pretty rare that there is another ruck in that price range to jump on. Looking right now you'd have Draper and Ladhams as maybe options.

Basically I would only recommend taking risks in the rucks if you're a very experienced trader with a very strong contingency plan. I've seen those 3 spots end more seasons than anything else in my times because of the extreme exposure they create.

For example with Witts & Reeves, what are you doing in the following situations:

- Injury/suspension?
- Dropped?
- Poor scoring?
- Huge starts from Gawn/Grundy/Darcy/NicNat/etc?
- Huge starts from OMc/Marshall types?

Who are your potential bailouts that don't require culling a premium elsewhere? How do you cover your super unique player missing a week? What is the endgame, if you see premium then you have to pick them, but realistically say they average 95, how are you getting them to the premiums still? When are you getting them to the premiums?

 

[Misky]

It's a lot of cash but if you're not starting the safe picks then I think it's almost a necessary spend. Rucks have limited to no DPP cover (English the one who could change that at least) and only one bench spot, it makes it by far the most exposed position, it's very hard to cover a 1 week injury/rest/suspension. That's worth the premium if you're exposing yourself to players outside of the popular ones. If everyone cops a donut it's ok, if you're the only one then it's huge.

Rucks are just a really dangerous position to take risks. If things go wrong, your path to correction is generally very difficult.

If you take a punt on Heeney and he fails, there's probably another half dozen options, more with good DPP setup, available within 50k or a rookie downgrade target to hit as a bailout. If you take a punt on Witts and he fails, you are quite probably going to be left needing to find the 250k that week for the upgrade to the premiums, it's rare there is a rookie bailout, it's rare to have DPP options and it's pretty rare that there is another ruck in that price range to jump on. Looking right now you'd have Draper and Ladhams as maybe options.

Basically I would only recommend taking risks in the rucks if you're a very experienced trader with a very strong contingency plan. I've seen those 3 spots end more seasons than anything else in my times because of the extreme exposure they create.

For example with Witts & Reeves, what are you doing in the following situations:

- Injury/suspension?
- Dropped?
- Poor scoring?
- Huge starts from Gawn/Grundy/Darcy/NicNat/etc?
- Huge starts from OMc/Marshall types?

Who are your potential bailouts that don't require culling a premium elsewhere? How do you cover your super unique player missing a week? What is the endgame, if you see premium then you have to pick them, but realistically say they average 95, how are you getting them to the premiums still? When are you getting them to the premiums?

Agree that going light/speculative in the rucks is asking for trouble, if i recall last year the 3 rookie ruck scenario was awesome round 1 but then from round 2 onwards the "big boys" really shined, plus didn't some of these rookie rucks get dropped in the subsequent rounds so people were scrambling to find warm bodies on the field?

In saying the above, I'm fairly certain that Grundy will stay as R1 come game day, really trying to find a "stepping stone" R2 as I feel that Gawn/Darcy have question marks this season and they aren't exactly cheap. Currently landed on L Jackson but not 100% sold with him either but Gawn hitting 30 and coming off a GF win, it kind of makes sense to start the transition to Jackson to become a premier ruck of the future. Has DPP and can be a F6 at worst for sub $400k so will continue pondering

So the million dollar question is, for those who are interested in going down this path (there might not be many coaches?), who are you most interested in? If WCE Williams was to share the load with Nic Nat then i'd be all over him as he's probably cheap enough but i'm not sure he's best 22 even with Darling out? And if/when Darling comes back i'm pretty sure he'll be the first one out..... No idea who's going to take the mantle for Hawthorn Reeves/Lynch, surely Big Boy can't do it for the whole year. Will be interested what the pre-season games bring

 

[GrainFedBeef]

He played as a R/F last year and SC decided not to give him DPP to start this year, so I have no idea why anyone would think he's anything more than an outside chance of getting it mid season.

They kinda shot themselves in the foot with this new DPP rule. They either a) assign DPP fairly across the board based on % time spent in each position and we end up with everyone having the same boring sides with Marshall, Fyfe, Danger, Petracca etc. in our forward lines. Or b) they pick and choose who gets DPP, don't give it to anyone who becomes a lock in 99% of teams to encourage team variety. Which just ends up annoying a heap of owners who are watching their player as a genuine forward each week and never get DPP.

DPP additions in UF and AF have always felt complete bull**** so not expecting much different but it is what it is.

The R/F in2021 was based on 2020 throughout the entire year.

in 2022, it I based on 2021 where Marshall came back late 2021 and Ryder was injured soon after, hence he spent most of his time rucking.

By end of round 6 we should know, as Ryder may be main ruck and Marshall easily could be 35% forward. If Ryder goes down early then Mashall unlikely to get forward status.

 

[Darkie]

Agree that going light/speculative in the rucks is asking for trouble, if i recall last year the 3 rookie ruck scenario was awesome round 1 but then from round 2 onwards the "big boys" really shined, plus didn't some of these rookie rucks get dropped in the subsequent rounds so people were scrambling to find warm bodies on the field?

In saying the above, I'm fairly certain that Grundy will stay as R1 come game day, really trying to find a "stepping stone" R2 as I feel that Gawn/Darcy have question marks this season and they aren't exactly cheap. Currently landed on L Jackson but not 100% sold with him either but Gawn hitting 30 and coming off a GF win, it kind of makes sense to start the transition to Jackson to become a premier ruck of the future. Has DPP and can be a F6 at worst for sub $400k so will continue pondering

So the million dollar question is, for those who are interested in going down this path (there might not be many coaches?), who are you most interested in? If WCE Williams was to share the load with Nic Nat then i'd be all over him as he's probably cheap enough but i'm not sure he's best 22 even with Darling out? And if/when Darling comes back i'm pretty sure he'll be the first one out..... No idea who's going to take the mantle for Hawthorn Reeves/Lynch, surely Big Boy can't do it for the whole year. Will be interested what the pre-season games bring

English would be another worth considering. Has a >100 year behind him already, and wouldn’t need to improve a mountain on last year’s average to be a forward premium.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Agree that going light/speculative in the rucks is asking for trouble, if i recall last year the 3 rookie ruck scenario was awesome round 1 but then from round 2 onwards the "big boys" really shined, plus didn't some of these rookie rucks get dropped in the subsequent rounds so people were scrambling to find warm bodies on the field?

In saying the above, I'm fairly certain that Grundy will stay as R1 come game day, really trying to find a "stepping stone" R2 as I feel that Gawn/Darcy have question marks this season and they aren't exactly cheap. Currently landed on L Jackson but not 100% sold with him either but Gawn hitting 30 and coming off a GF win, it kind of makes sense to start the transition to Jackson to become a premier ruck of the future. Has DPP and can be a F6 at worst for sub $400k so will continue pondering

So the million dollar question is, for those who are interested in going down this path (there might not be many coaches?), who are you most interested in? If WCE Williams was to share the load with Nic Nat then i'd be all over him as he's probably cheap enough but i'm not sure he's best 22 even with Darling out? And if/when Darling comes back i'm pretty sure he'll be the first one out..... No idea who's going to take the mantle for Hawthorn Reeves/Lynch, surely Big Boy can't do it for the whole year. Will be interested what the pre-season games bring

With Darling our for now (may go Nova vaxx), Oscar Allen is a permanent no2 forward. That puts Bailey as 3rd big boy in fwd line and chop out for NN. Challenge is when he has played his scoring was great. Should play the first few games unless they decide to use someone else as R2. Could make 50-100k, not sure he will go 70 average up from 40.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I havent completely ruled out English up forward myself, dont think hes that bad of a pick if the season fell his way and provides security if Darcy or Grundy missed here and there.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I reckon Xerri will be the one to look at, not Comben, had a massive pre season and Goldy can't do it forever.

I thought I read that Comben will be one of the two big forwards this year and it is Goldy and a back up ruck/F3 in the team. However, CCJ vs Xerri for that spot.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I thought I read that Comben will be one of the two big forwards this year and it is Goldy and a back up ruck/F3 in the team. However, CCJ vs Xerri for that spot.

May be the case I just think Xerri will have far better scoring potential if the ruck minutes come, Comben feels a genuine 40-50 candidate as a raw forward in a crap side to me.

Sounds like CCJ has to work for a spot which I actually like, too many recruits like that are just spoonfed 30 games.

 

[Bomber18]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490173434541723653

View: https://twitter.com/cleary_mitch/status/1490173434541723653?s=21

 

[wogitalia]

Agree that going light/speculative in the rucks is asking for trouble, if i recall last year the 3 rookie ruck scenario was awesome round 1 but then from round 2 onwards the "big boys" really shined, plus didn't some of these rookie rucks get dropped in the subsequent rounds so people were scrambling to find warm bodies on the field?

In saying the above, I'm fairly certain that Grundy will stay as R1 come game day, really trying to find a "stepping stone" R2 as I feel that Gawn/Darcy have question marks this season and they aren't exactly cheap. Currently landed on L Jackson but not 100% sold with him either but Gawn hitting 30 and coming off a GF win, it kind of makes sense to start the transition to Jackson to become a premier ruck of the future. Has DPP and can be a F6 at worst for sub $400k so will continue pondering

So the million dollar question is, for those who are interested in going down this path (there might not be many coaches?), who are you most interested in? If WCE Williams was to share the load with Nic Nat then i'd be all over him as he's probably cheap enough but i'm not sure he's best 22 even with Darling out? And if/when Darling comes back i'm pretty sure he'll be the first one out..... No idea who's going to take the mantle for Hawthorn Reeves/Lynch, surely Big Boy can't do it for the whole year. Will be interested what the pre-season games bring

The 3RR was a flawed strategy from the start. The only way 3RR is viable is if you have strong DPP coverage and/or there are a couple of rookies you didn't pick that will be available.

I went two rookies and was well ahead starting the Gawn/Grundy combo... of course I then traded into Hickey, who then got hurt for 8 weeks so I then moved heaven and Earth to get Gawn only for Hickey to only miss one and Gawn to proceed to **** the bed from that point forward. In hindsight the 2RR was an ideal starting move but dealing with it live is another story, especially when Gawn is going HAM. Valuable lesson is never pay top dollar for a guy in absurd form that you didn't pick for a reason

I havent completely ruled out English up forward myself, dont think hes that bad of a pick if the season fell his way and provides security if Darcy or Grundy missed here and there.

English needs to be the lone ruck for me to consider. Martin will get injured but you can bring English in at the point that happens and not cop the forward role. I'm still hoping that he's spent the whole o***eason in the gym adding the strength he so badly needs in the ruck. Also hoping he spent the rest of the time getting some anger training so he can play with some aggression and moxie out there because, last year especially, his softness was infuriating. It's one thing to get beaten but to get consistently manhandled and never show any fight is a really worrying character trait.

 

[OnTopBar]

It's a lot of cash but if you're not starting the safe picks then I think it's almost a necessary spend. Rucks have limited to no DPP cover (English the one who could change that at least) and only one bench spot, it makes it by far the most exposed position, it's very hard to cover a 1 week injury/rest/suspension. That's worth the premium if you're exposing yourself to players outside of the popular ones. If everyone cops a donut it's ok, if you're the only one then it's huge.

Rucks are just a really dangerous position to take risks. If things go wrong, your path to correction is generally very difficult.

If you take a punt on Heeney and he fails, there's probably another half dozen options, more with good DPP setup, available within 50k or a rookie downgrade target to hit as a bailout. If you take a punt on Witts and he fails, you are quite probably going to be left needing to find the 250k that week for the upgrade to the premiums, it's rare there is a rookie bailout, it's rare to have DPP options and it's pretty rare that there is another ruck in that price range to jump on. Looking right now you'd have Draper and Ladhams as maybe options.

Basically I would only recommend taking risks in the rucks if you're a very experienced trader with a very strong contingency plan. I've seen those 3 spots end more seasons than anything else in my times because of the extreme exposure they create.

For example with Witts & Reeves, what are you doing in the following situations:

- Injury/suspension?
- Dropped?
- Poor scoring?
- Huge starts from Gawn/Grundy/Darcy/NicNat/etc?
- Huge starts from OMc/Marshall types?

Who are your potential bailouts that don't require culling a premium elsewhere? How do you cover your super unique player missing a week? What is the endgame, if you see premium then you have to pick them, but realistically say they average 95, how are you getting them to the premiums still? When are you getting them to the premiums?

Thanks for responding Wogi, I rate your knowledge in this game and it's important for relative newcomers like myself to listen and learn, and believe me I am.

I started an all rookie ruckline last year which turned into the train wreck that you outlined can happen. I still think there's merit in starting a cheaper ruckline and maybe this year is the one to try it given the doubt over the potential scoring of all of the top line rucks combined with the ability to now use a boost trade, not to mention the risk of Covid, which could affect those teams starting with the set and forget rucks (mine too). I learnt a few lessons last year and I'm going to use that knowledge to try and circumvent the obvious risk attached to this strategy.

I'm only willing to start the 3 amigos if they're all fit and are 1st rucks, Preuss and Witts are durability risks and maybe Reeves if he gets back into the boxing ring.

I like how you put a range on the scoring of the players that you're looking at, so I'll try and do that too.

Witts: Priced at 70 and should score around 85-95, a 90 average should see him increase by 100k
Reeves: Priced at 66, should score at around the same, but I'll be conservative and say 80-90, an 85 average will see an increase of 100k
Preuss: Priced at 38, again if 1st ruck should score the same as the others but I'll be more conservative and say 70-80, an average of 60 will see him increase by 100k.

I would think that they'll need around 6-7 rounds to let them fatten up, maybe earlier if there's a couple of spike games thrown in (I stand to be corrected on my math as I'm not sure of the time required at those higher averages to attain the cash gen that I'm forecasting) I know that the rule of thumb is to make 150k for those players in your side as cash generators/rookies, I'm not sure whether that applies to stepping stones which all of my rucks are. Once Preuss and Reeves have made 100k@ then it's a simple 2 trade upgrade to a top scoring ruck which I'm sure will have identified themselves after 6 or so rounds. I might hold Witts till the rnd 13 bye but that's totally reliant on his scoring which would need to be over 105 at least, if not then I'll add a fattened rookie and turn him into another premo.

Now to look at contingencies should things go awry. It's not hard for me to turn Reeves and Preuss into Omac and I have a few MP's that could be downgraded to get me out of trouble with Witts, I think the withheld value in the rucks price diminishes the risk involved in moving them to premos, especially with the availability of boost trades, of course if I have to use them and others don't then that puts me behind the 8 ball. It's a much easier situation to bail out of than an all rookie ruckline.

My main worry is that one is coming off an LTI and are injury prone (particularly Preuss) so as I said, I'm only taking them if they're fit

As 1st rucks I would doubt that they would get dropped, if they did then it would be down to poor form and I would move them on anyway. Suspension is a risk with all players, but having a 1st ruck at R3 gives a bit of insurance on that front.

It's a risk that one or more of the top rucks, or 2nd tier rucks go on a scoring spree but which one or two do you pick and start with to take advantage of it? Do you trade one of your premo ruck starting picks to get on that train? I'm willing to sit back for a while and assess after a few rounds and then maybe hitch a ride. Because I've strengthened all of my other lines I think that the risk is considerably diminished, added to that is the ability to start a few more MP's which in themselves are stepping stones and require less trades to upgrade than would a rookie as well as providing increased scoring potential.

I'm not a risk averse individual and actually enjoy taking an alternative path, even after starting with an all rookie ruckline last year I still managed a ranking of 11k but that was also due to a myopic view on MP's where I refused to take even one and went full G n R's for the year.

I'm sure that there are flaws to my logic and by all means let me know your thoughts.

 

[wogitalia]

Thanks for responding Wogi, I rate your knowledge in this game and it's important for relative newcomers like myself to listen and learn, and believe me I am.

I started an all rookie ruckline last year which turned into the train wreck that you outlined can happen. I still think there's merit in starting a cheaper ruckline and maybe this year is the one to try it given the doubt over the potential scoring of all of the top line rucks combined with the ability to now use a boost trade, not to mention the risk of Covid, which could affect those teams starting with the set and forget rucks (mine too). I learnt a few lessons last year and I'm going to use that knowledge to try and circumvent the obvious risk attached to this strategy.

I'm only willing to start the 3 amigos if they're all fit and are 1st rucks, Preuss and Witts are durability risks and maybe Reeves if he gets back into the boxing ring.

I like how you put a range on the scoring of the players that you're looking at, so I'll try and do that too.

Witts: Priced at 70 and should score around 85-95, a 90 average should see him increase by 100k
Reeves: Priced at 66, should score at around the same, but I'll be conservative and say 80-90, an 85 average will see an increase of 100k
Preuss: Priced at 38, again if 1st ruck should score the same as the others but I'll be more conservative and say 70-80, an average of 60 will see him increase by 100k.

I would think that they'll need around 6-7 rounds to let them fatten up, maybe earlier if there's a couple of spike games thrown in (I stand to be corrected on my math as I'm not sure of the time required at those higher averages to attain the cash gen that I'm forecasting) I know that the rule of thumb is to make 150k for those players in your side as cash generators/rookies, I'm not sure whether that applies to stepping stones which all of my rucks are. Once Preuss and Reeves have made 100k@ then it's a simple 2 trade upgrade to a top scoring ruck which I'm sure will have identified themselves after 6 or so rounds. I might hold Witts till the rnd 13 bye but that's totally reliant on his scoring which would need to be over 105 at least, if not then I'll add a fattened rookie and turn him into another premo.

Now to look at contingencies should things go awry. It's not hard for me to turn Reeves and Preuss into Omac and I have a few MP's that could be downgraded to get me out of trouble with Witts, I think the withheld value in the rucks price diminishes the risk involved in moving them to premos, especially with the availability of boost trades, of course if I have to use them and others don't then that puts me behind the 8 ball. It's a much easier situation to bail out of than an all rookie ruckline.

My main worry is that one is coming off an LTI and are injury prone (particularly Preuss) so as I said, I'm only taking them if they're fit

As 1st rucks I would doubt that they would get dropped, if they did then it would be down to poor form and I would move them on anyway. Suspension is a risk with all players, but having a 1st ruck at R3 gives a bit of insurance on that front.

It's a risk that one or more of the top rucks, or 2nd tier rucks go on a scoring spree but which one or two do you pick and start with to take advantage of it? Do you trade one of your premo ruck starting picks to get on that train? I'm willing to sit back for a while and assess after a few rounds and then maybe hitch a ride. Because I've strengthened all of my other lines I think that the risk is considerably diminished, added to that is the ability to start a few more MP's which in themselves are stepping stones and require less trades to upgrade than would a rookie as well as providing increased scoring potential.

I'm not a risk averse individual and actually enjoy taking an alternative path, even after starting with an all rookie ruckline last year I still managed a ranking of 11k but that was also due to a myopic view on MP's where I refused to take even one and went full G n R's for the year.

I'm sure that there are flaws to my logic and by all means let me know your thoughts.

Great thought pattern mate!

I will point out to be careful with the rucks of getting into the mentality of "I've strengthened the other lines" as the rucks really are pretty much in isolation of those.

Normally if you strengthen the forwards/backs there is some kind of interaction between those lines and the mids with DPP allowing cover and flexibility, so if you nailed the forwards but the mids are going a bit astray you can flip a DPP forward there to cover a few weeks while you adapt. The problem the rucks have is they're so isolated from the other lines that you haven't got flexibility if things are wrong and you often have to cannibalise the other lines to fix them and once you start getting into those sideways trades you're off the upgrade train and it's damn hard to get back on!

Do agree the trade boosts alleviate the above slightly but it's still a step back that others might not need.

100k is not a terrible result but important to consider the opportunity cost on top. Is taking Witts (and I don't mind Witts as a pick) to make 100k with 380k capital deployed and scoring, let's use 95, a picking say Bont who matches his average (for simplicity) a better outcome than perhaps taking Darcy scoring his average and Ward to make 100k and having the 200k to use elsewhere? Nothing we do is in isolation.

Having said that, it's all moving parts, if you look at Gawn/Darcy/Grundy/NicNat and think they're fairly priced or overpriced, then not starting them has a lot of merit if you're looking at say Bont/Mitchell/Oliver/Lyons and seeing them as being underpriced but then the question is are the rucks overpriced enough and/or the mids underpriced enough that making 100k on Witts to hold that spot down is better than perhaps making 200k on another line somewhere?

Basically is copping a bit of depreciation on the premium rucks going to allow you to generate better returns on Witts' 380k deployment? Can you perhaps turn a couple of low security rookies into higher tier rookies with that money and end up making 500k from it?

I'm not sold on the top rucks either just yet, definitely leaning towards them, but rucks are a high risk area and with the crop of elite rucks we have, I think relatively low reward. 10 years ago when ruck premiums changed quicker than a runway model there was definitely a lot of potential reward but Grawndy in particular have been rock solid premiums for a while.

 

[OnTopBar]

Great thought pattern mate!

I will point out to be careful with the rucks of getting into the mentality of "I've strengthened the other lines" as the rucks really are pretty much in isolation of those.

Normally if you strengthen the forwards/backs there is some kind of interaction between those lines and the mids with DPP allowing cover and flexibility, so if you nailed the forwards but the mids are going a bit astray you can flip a DPP forward there to cover a few weeks while you adapt. The problem the rucks have is they're so isolated from the other lines that you haven't got flexibility if things are wrong and you often have to cannibalise the other lines to fix them and once you start getting into those sideways trades you're off the upgrade train and it's damn hard to get back on!

Do agree the trade boosts alleviate the above slightly but it's still a step back that others might not need.

100k is not a terrible result but important to consider the opportunity cost on top. Is taking Witts (and I don't mind Witts as a pick) to make 100k with 380k capital deployed and scoring, let's use 95, a picking say Bont who matches his average (for simplicity) a better outcome than perhaps taking Darcy scoring his average and Ward to make 100k and having the 200k to use elsewhere? Nothing we do is in isolation.

Having said that, it's all moving parts, if you look at Gawn/Darcy/Grundy/NicNat and think they're fairly priced or overpriced, then not starting them has a lot of merit if you're looking at say Bont/Mitchell/Oliver/Lyons and seeing them as being underpriced but then the question is are the rucks overpriced enough and/or the mids underpriced enough that making 100k on Witts to hold that spot down is better than perhaps making 200k on another line somewhere?

Basically is copping a bit of depreciation on the premium rucks going to allow you to generate better returns on Witts' 380k deployment? Can you perhaps turn a couple of low security rookies into higher tier rookies with that money and end up making 500k from it?

I'm not sold on the top rucks either just yet, definitely leaning towards them, but rucks are a high risk area and with the crop of elite rucks we have, I think relatively low reward. 10 years ago when ruck premiums changed quicker than a runway model there was definitely a lot of potential reward but Grawndy in particular have been rock solid premiums for a while.

Thanks again for your insight, it's helping me in rationalising my thought processes.

When I say 'strengthening my other lines' it means using the $ saved to upgrade what would have been rookies to MP's. So if I chose Grawndy and a rookie for example, then that would cost me 1.4M as opposed to 940k for my set up. That 460k saving is used to get D Rioli, Coleman and Curnow in place of rookies, their JS, scoring potential, cash gen, outweighs those DEF and FWD rookies that I'd have to field otherwise. The bonus to my team though is the upgrade flexibility that they provide, not to mention their DPP status as well, by upgrade flexibility I mean that their withheld value makes upgrades easier, so 2 trades/upgrade rather than 3-4. There's also a bail out option for the rucks.

I'm chasing value quite a bit this year, basically because I'm only starting 4 rookies on field, so rather than use the savings on my ruckline to upgrade premos to uber premos on other lines I'll use those savings to generate extra value and flexibility. I don't see having a MP ruckline as an opportunity cost, more of an opportunity to value add.