Position 2022: Midfield Discussion

[wogitalia]

Hard to find a spot for Cripps unless he beasts preseason but I reckon the appeal of a pick like him is that he's NOT easy to jump on, and if he's successful as a starting pick the win is locked in.

If he starts fast you'd be brave to sideways correct to him, and if you wait till Rd 6 for upgrade period he's 100k more expensive. Inevitably there will be fallen premos who started in the 650k range available for a similar price to him, who may well seem like better bets at that point.

If you started him you have 150+ points over value + $100k head start on those bringing him. The win is banked.

I think we massively overstate the price movements that midprice guys will make. We all think they're going to jump but the reality is that over the first 6 rounds it's generally the rookies eating the pie, the premiums throwing their part back in the pot and the middle guys kind of just treading water in between.

Taranto last year was priced at 85, by round 7 was averaging 100, which was pretty much on the best case scenario, and he was 40k more.

Touk Miller was just under 30k more expensive at round 10. Sam Walsh was 25k more at round 5 or 30k more at round 10.

Ben Keays was one of the bigger moves and he was 40k at round 5 or 70k at round 10.

Those are the standout names that improved ~15-20 points on their averages on a quick browse.

Obviously every little 30k or 40k bunch you can save adds up, if you'd picked all those guys last year it's an extra 150k, basically a good downgrade trade but there just isn't the huge value to make them start or pass picks.

I haven't entirely ruled Cripps out at this point but would take something pretty special in the preseason. Especially after last year where he did everything he could in the o***eason to scream "DON'T PICK ME" and I still fell hook, line and sinker for him!

Simple fact is his body has fallen to pieces in back to back seasons, heck it started in the back half of 2019 even, and that's a real worry given how he plays and that he is also one of the players that the rule changes seem to most target at this point in time.

Love the guy but I'm not sure I can take him tanking my season again even if I want the opposite so much!

 

[Tails]

I think we massively overstate the price movements that midprice guys will make. We all think they're going to jump but the reality is that over the first 6 rounds it's generally the rookies eating the pie, the premiums throwing their part back in the pot and the middle guys kind of just treading water in between.

Taranto last year was priced at 85, by round 7 was averaging 100, which was pretty much on the best case scenario, and he was 40k more.

Touk Miller was just under 30k more expensive at round 10. Sam Walsh was 25k more at round 5 or 30k more at round 10.

Ben Keays was one of the bigger moves and he was 40k at round 5 or 70k at round 10.

Those are the standout names that improved ~15-20 points on their averages on a quick browse.

Obviously every little 30k or 40k bunch you can save adds up, if you'd picked all those guys last year it's an extra 150k, basically a good downgrade trade but there just isn't the huge value to make them start or pass picks.

I haven't entirely ruled Cripps out at this point but would take something pretty special in the preseason. Especially after last year where he did everything he could in the o***eason to scream "DON'T PICK ME" and I still fell hook, line and sinker for him!

Simple fact is his body has fallen to pieces in back to back seasons, heck it started in the back half of 2019 even, and that's a real worry given how he plays and that he is also one of the players that the rule changes seem to most target at this point in time.

Love the guy but I'm not sure I can take him tanking my season again even if I want the opposite so much!

I've been looking at this ....

I have a rule about what I'm prepared to pay for a starter and probable season long keeper in each line ...

Can't see me deviating from it this year ... in the back of my mind is the following:

- Last year was a back to normal game times albeit with the previous years set of a dozen new rules ..
- Teams as a natural progression should adjust to them and what "might" be mitigated I don't know SC scoring wise ...

What I still fail to understand is how those taking the kick ins get scored so highly in SC land ...

- To me they "usually" didn't earn the kick in the first place, basically have no pressure on them, play on for a few metres gain and predominately just put a dump kick down the line to what ends up usually being a throw in or ball up ...
- I just don't see the skill level in that process ...

 

[wogitalia]

I've been looking at this ....

I have a rule about what I'm prepared to pay for a starter and probable season long keeper in each line ...

Can't see me deviating from it this year ... in the back of my mind is the following:

- Last year was a back to normal game times albeit with the previous years set of a dozen new rules ..
- Teams as a natural progression should adjust to them and what "might" be mitigated I don't know SC scoring wise ...

What I still fail to understand is how those taking the kick ins get scored so highly in SC land ...

- To me they didn't earn the kick in the first place, basically have no pressure on them, play on for a few metres gain and predominately just put a dump kick down the line to what ends up usually being a throw in or ball up ...
- I just don't see the skill level in that process ...

SC is a flawed system and the kick-ins absolutely game the system. Simple fact is you get an effective kick if you hit the short target, which is often conceded by teams, or if you kick long to a contest which is basically guaranteed on the kick-in. Basically it's 4 free points with the metres gained, rebound 50 and possible start of scoring chains all ticking over as hidden background stats that don't directly score but certainly seem to hit the momentum button.

It's similar to a player can hit a brilliant kick but if it goes 39.9m to any form of contest it's ineffective but if it went 40m it would be an effective kick. This particular aspect is a big reason why a guy like Petracca can increase his DE% by 5%+ when playing midfield and having the 40m+ kick to the contest option instead of as a forward where you're always having to try and hit 30m passes to a contest. (Lot of players suffer from this).

There's just a lot of gaps in the system and that's when it's working properly

 

[Tails]

SC is a flawed system and the kick-ins absolutely game the system. Simple fact is you get an effective kick if you hit the short target, which is often conceded by teams, or if you kick long to a contest which is basically guaranteed on the kick-in. Basically it's 4 free points with the metres gained, rebound 50 and possible start of scoring chains all ticking over as hidden background stats that don't directly score but certainly seem to hit the momentum button.

It's similar to a player can hit a brilliant kick but if it goes 39.9m to any form of contest it's ineffective but if it went 40m it would be an effective kick. This particular aspect is a big reason why a guy like Petracca can increase his DE% by 5%+ when playing midfield and having the 40m+ kick to the contest option instead of as a forward where you're always having to try and hit 30m passes to a contest. (Lot of players suffer from this).

There's just a lot of gaps in the system and that's when it's working properly

Well explained ...

 

[randomcliche]

The thing I find funny is Lachie Neale struggled with a back injury last year and averaged 35 points below the year before, 134 down to 99. Yet everyone is falling over themselves to pick him (including me).

Cripps struggled with a back injury and scored at 35 points below his established best (119 in 2018 and 117 in 2019), falling to 83. Yet he is broken and unpickable?

The complicating factor with Cripps is the in-between year 2020, where he averaged 98. That year he had 8 scores over 100 (from the 17 games) which indicated he was inconsistent. He likely had varying niggles and the hub life meant he was separated from his girlfriend, who was unwell back in Melbourne. The faster pace of the shorter games probably didn't help either.

Last year he scored over 100 twice - that's right - 2 SC tons from the 20 games he played. He was his own worst enemy in continuing to play with the state his body was in. One game he sat on the bench for the opening 7 minutes of the 3rd quarter discussing (arguing?) with one of the assistant coaches. When he finally went on the ground, he sat up forward and contributed nothing. Clearly should have been subbed off. Unlike Neale (who missed rounds 7-11 to "repair" himself), Cripps never got himself right - the 2 games he missed were in rounds 18 and 22. He was also subbed off in round 23.

Despite the horror year he was having, Carlton resigned Cripps at the bye to a 6 year deal. At that point they would have had all the available medical information. No club is irresponsible enough to sign a player to a 6 year deal if they know (or even suspect) he is cooked.

Teague's gameplan of run and spread will be replaced by a more contested style with Voss. There was clearly issues between Coach and Captain, and Cripps just seemed at times to do ridiculous things to make a point. I've mentioned before that Pickering (Teague's manager) directed some parting shots at Cripps during the outgoing press conference. The only coach to survive the review was Luke Power. The rest were all sacked, which tells us that Cripps probably had every reason to be frustrated..

What I want to see leading into the season is that a) he can move freely and get from contest to contest, and b) he can get back to winning contested ball and giving it off - not trying to run with it until he is inevitably caught. The first part seems to be on track from preseason reports, and the second should be helped by the addition of better players around him, who have more idea of where to position and run.

I love this. He's still in the bronken until proven otherwise...but the first steps have been taken. Going to be super interesting to watch. The coaching change could be #significant. I can't say I'm happy even thinking about putting him in my team - but that just emotion.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/704964/massive-blue-blow-superstar-mid-to-miss-start-of-season

 

[Tails]

Well I guess that is a double whammy for my team ...

- Walsh and Rowell need to both go to accommodate the "potential" replacements ...

 

[Toothless Tigers]

How does Sam Walsh injury affect Carlton midfield rotation?

 

[kennychao]

Anyone else running all of Macrae Steele Oliver and Touk? I found it too hard to leave any of the 4 out so got all 4 of them locked and loaded (no Neale / midpricers).

 

[Ben's Beasts]

As it stands, 36 people need to change their vote..

 

[nath_99]

Wonder if Walsh out makes Cripps a viable option… I got burned bad last year 🤔

 

[Bermi]

Anyone else running all of Macrae Steele Oliver and Touk? I found it too hard to leave any of the 4 out so got all 4 of them locked and loaded (no Neale / midpricers).

I've also got Mitchell in the mix.
Still a lot of time before the first bounce, that could help make our choice easier.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Might be reading it wrong but George Hewett doesnt scream Sam Walsh replacement to me, different type of players don't expect that changes much for him personally.

 

[kennychao]

I've also got Mitchell in the mix.
Still a lot of time before the first bounce, that could help make our choice easier.

Agreed - currently having all 4 of them is the only way I can stop myself from tinkering / moving them in/out - until the pre season games start lol

 

[Manikato1]

A doppelganger probably

As it turns out apparently not.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Anyone else running all of Macrae Steele Oliver and Touk? I found it too hard to leave any of the 4 out so got all 4 of them locked and loaded (no Neale / midpricers).

I think we are going to struggle to fit 4 big dog mids in to be honest, forward and defence rookie stocks are looking horrendous.

 

[Eagling]

Anyone else running all of Macrae Steele Oliver and Touk? I found it too hard to leave any of the 4 out so got all 4 of them locked and loaded (no Neale / midpricers).

My preferred 5 midfield setup has all 4+Neale; but feasibility is another story.

 

[wogitalia]

Might be reading it wrong but George Hewett doesnt scream Sam Walsh replacement to me, different type of players don't expect that changes much for him personally.

It's more that 4th best midfielder becomes 3rd best midfielder for them and also that 3rd best midfielder becoming 2nd hasn't shown much of the inside work that Walsh was doing by seasons end last year so there is a gap there as well.

On the flipside it's going to make it way harder to judge his actual role. If he does get a great role is it because Walsh is out or because it's his role? He's not really cheap enough to not make it to keeper level so it's a huge call to start him.

 

[Tails]

My preferred 5 midfield setup has all 4+Neale; but feasibility is another story.

Would love to see your other lines

 

[Tails]

It's more that 4th best midfielder becomes 3rd best midfielder for them and also that 3rd best midfielder becoming 2nd hasn't shown much of the inside work that Walsh was doing by seasons end last year so there is a gap there as well.

On the flipside it's going to make it way harder to judge his actual role. If he does get a great role is it because Walsh is out or because it's his role? He's not really cheap enough to not make it to keeper level so it's a huge call to start him.

Interesting to me is that Steele and Miller both started off as taggers .... look at them now ...

- Not sure Hewett can ever reach their heights though ... do have him in my AF Fantasy team for now though ..