Discussion 2022: Rookie Discussion

How many $140,000 to $208,000 players do you currently own?

  • 9+

    Votes: 39 26.4%
  • 8

    Votes: 17 11.5%
  • 7

    Votes: 28 18.9%
  • 6

    Votes: 33 22.3%
  • 5

    Votes: 20 13.5%
  • 4

    Votes: 7 4.7%
  • 3

    Votes: 4 2.7%
  • 2

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 0

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    148
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I disagree, from all reports his a jake lever clone. Real high draft pick in a very strong draft. Butts a third round rookie pick. Can compare the to on talent. His killing it in the preseason kept Riewoldt touch less in a match sim. Astbury retired Balta training as a full time fwd suggests to me that the spare spot in defence is his to lose.
 
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I disagree, from all reports his a jake lever clone. Real high draft pick in a very strong draft. Butts a third round rookie pick. Can compare the to on talent. His killing it in the preseason kept Riewoldt touch less in a match sim. Astbury retired Balta training as a full time fwd suggests to me that the spare spot in defence is his to lose.
Not comparing them on ability,only age & body shape.
At 171k,he needs to play,he will but I'm sure he'll have his ups & downs.

Who's he replacing? Balta isn't an interceptor,he plays on the gorillas.
Taz has replaced Dave,is he seriously walking into Nick's role as an 18yo?
I hope he's that good.
 
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I'm not so convinced yet that we have a quality wave of rookies, we do have more mids than usual who were drafted high, which is great.

I think clubs typically talk up new players and that might be part of what's going on but the fact remains a lot of these high drafted Victorian players have not played very much for two years.

Back in the days of the prospectus I would use the scoring of the U/18 championships as the best indicator of success as a rookie in Supercoach because it showed how well they faired against the best players at their age. In recent years players like Rowell, Walsh, Jack Higgins and Serong all performed highly at that level, other players like Andrew Brayshaw and LDU performed far better in the state leagues than they did in the U/18 champs, indicating to me that they were rawer as talents. This seemed to translate very well to AFL success early on.

Now that data is missing for two straight seasons I feel like we're really playing a bit of a guessing game and even the players people are picking and touting who scored well at state level (Hobbs and Ward) played against other guys who had barely played for two years, how good were they versus the players from across the country? we don't know.

I think I've come to accept that Daicos is such a talent that he will overcome the lack of games the past two years but I have concerns for the other expensive vic rookies below his price. And I'm not saying Hobbs and Ward can't score well but they may be more likely to score around the 50-55 range than in the 65+ range. I'm also not convinced that either have incredible job security or see significant mid time, if Essendon cops a couple of midfield injuries my estimation of Hobbs's scoring potential would be way up, but as it is he's a clearance machine in juniors who is unlikely to get much midfield time in a side with a lot of depth there.

At the moment I'm happy to pay up for JHF and Daicos as expensive first year players but don't trust anyone else to be worth it over 150K. Erasmus is another worth watching being a WAFL player in a Fremantle side depleted of midfielders (he was injured a lot 2021 but got to play in 2020). Otherwise I trust guys like Dylan Stephens and Hinge as mature aged cash cows.

A lot to play out in practice matches but the things needed to convince me that we have a brilliant crop of rookies aren't here yet.
I love this write up and it resonates quite a lot of my "initial" thoughts ..
 
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Even if Richmond move Balta forward theyve still got Tarrant,Grimes,Vlastuin and Broad really dont see how Gibcus fits in there, dont particularly think he'd score well even if he does either.
If he's ready I'm sure Gibcus will play at least the odd game this season, but it's hard to see how he automatically slots into such an experienced backline. Butts last season was in a very different situation as the only real key defender in the team a lot of the time.
 
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I love this write up and it resonates quite a lot of my "initial" thoughts ..
I'm liking it too as it's another person who is not considering Ward as a starting pick. There seems to be quite a few. Can't wait for him to prove a lot of doubters wrong!

I could be completely wrong and I know I am definitely biased as a Hawks supporter, but everything I have seen of him from training reports and junior form suggests he will score well and that he is worth paying slightly more for than other rookies. He's got a good tank and never gives up unlike a lot of other rookies. I think he should be given a chance to earn a regular spot in the team early on and I would be very surprised if he doesn't secure it.

Friday week against the Pies and I guess we'll all hopefully see who's looking closer to the mark, but he's one player who is a near lock in my team right now. That said, I do respect the opinions of multiple people here that are much better at SC than me who are not really considering starting him, so I'm starting to wonder what exactly I'm missing...
 
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I'm liking it too as it's another person who is not considering Ward as a starting pick. There seems to be quite a few. Can't wait for him to prove a lot of doubters wrong!

I could be completely wrong and I know I am definitely biased as a Hawks supporter, but everything I have seen of him from training reports and junior form suggests he will score well and that he is worth paying slightly more for than other rookies. He's got a good tank and never gives up unlike a lot of other rookies. I think he should be given a chance to earn a regular spot in the team early on and I would be very surprised if he doesn't secure it.

Friday week against the Pies and I guess we'll all hopefully see who's looking closer to the mark, but he's one player who is a near lock in my team right now. That said, I do respect the opinions of multiple people here that are much better at SC than me who are not really considering starting him, so I'm starting to wonder what exactly I'm missing...
Hasn't left my side in any format ...

His side kick in Maginness I've also got my eyes on ...

Going through a Meatloaf rendition tonight though ... lucky it isn't an AC/DC one ..
 
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I'm liking it too as it's another person who is not considering Ward as a starting pick. There seems to be quite a few. Can't wait for him to prove a lot of doubters wrong!

I could be completely wrong and I know I am definitely biased as a Hawks supporter, but everything I have seen of him from training reports and junior form suggests he will score well and that he is worth paying slightly more for than other rookies. He's got a good tank and never gives up unlike a lot of other rookies. I think he should be given a chance to earn a regular spot in the team early on and I would be very surprised if he doesn't secure it.

Friday week against the Pies and I guess we'll all hopefully see who's looking closer to the mark, but he's one player who is a near lock in my team right now. That said, I do respect the opinions of multiple people here that are much better at SC than me who are not really considering starting him, so I'm starting to wonder what exactly I'm missing...
He reminds me so much of Sam Walsh in his playing style … so you know where I stand with him lol.
The news that Day is unlikely for round 1 (who knows how long, think the hawks will be conservative with him/ too important long term) further strengthens his claims for round 1 & on a wing.

At the moment I have JHF/Daicos/Ward/Stephens on the field (Clark on the bench) - Erasmus is another I am considering but can’t fit in.
 
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Not comparing them on ability,only age & body shape.
At 171k,he needs to play,he will but I'm sure he'll have his ups & downs.

Who's he replacing? Balta isn't an interceptor,he plays on the gorillas.
Taz has replaced Dave,is he seriously walking into Nick's role as an 18yo?
I hope he's that good.
Balta played like rance a bit in defence from what I’ve heard gibcus is the same. Balta ave 6 intercepts a game and he wasn’t playing 100% in defence(ruck at times and stints up fwd) jake lever averaged 10
 
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https://www.afl.com.au/news/705348/...r-r1-debut-nicks-flags-new-role-for-young-gun

PRIZED Adelaide draftee Josh Rachele is "a big chance" to debut in round one as the Crows map out how to help the dynamic forward make an immediate transition to AFL level.

Rachele has settled in well at West Lakes after being snared with pick No.6 in the 2021 NAB AFL Draft, already adding noticeable strength and building his fitness since arriving amid comparisons to Greater Western Sydney star Toby Greene.

The 18-year-old has been guided by former skipper Taylor Walker, with coach Matthew Nicks emphatic when asked if the classy youngster could be unveiled against Fremantle in the Crows' season-opener.

"He's a big chance for round one," Nicks told AFL.com.au.

"He was already well built, and he'd done a lot of work leading in prior to being drafted to get himself physically ready to play an AFL game.

"It's really exciting what he's brought to the group. He's a competitive beast, he likes kicking goals, and those players are important.

"He's settled in really well and jumped straight in under Tex's wing. Tex has been incredible this pre-season integrating Josh into the group."

A small forward who can push into the midfield, Rachele's early challenge at AFL level will be harnessing his speed and power for long periods.

Nicks said it was an issue the Crows were working through, with the option of introducing the Victorian to the top level with restricted game time.

"He's a powerful footballer, so he's going to be one of those guys you see a fair bit of speed from," Nicks said.

"We're looking at what that's going to equate to over 120 minutes. That's going to be the challenge.

"But we've got the ability to play guys like Josh or certain players for 60 or 70 per cent game time."
 
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Don't think he needs any kind of intercept role to be relevant. If he's clear best 22 in a defensive role he should be solid. A guy like Butts made 160k last year and I'd imagine a similar role for him.

The thing with the younger KP types is they end up being the player that gets targeted and there's really no negative for getting beaten but every spoil, every contest won, every tackle is worth points so they can rack them up pretty quickly. Ben King kicked 4 on Butts in round 3 but he still scored 95 because of the constant supply. Similarly Taberner kicked 4 on him in round 5 but he hit 81.

I'd actually be shocked if he had the intercept role but if his JS is looking good I'll not be afraid of him. Will obviously take cheaper options if they're there but Butts was a very solid pick last year and a similar profile, albeit slightly better JS but even that wasn't known early when it was thought Talia would be back sooner rather than not at all.




Skinner is a big bodied guy with experience at the level, was also a very high valued recruit at the Lions. Couple of injuries ruined things for him but he's AFL ready so he definitely could beat any of the challengers out. He's probably helped that both Jonas and Aliir are capable of playing small and mid roles at times. McKenzie another tweener they used on big forwards to their expense often.

The question is whether Skinner is there to hold a position or if he's more for teams with a big body forward they fear. His SANFL production was very positive but I doubt he gets the intercept role with how well Aliir manned that last year but you never know with Ken.
I had Butts last year and they definitely targeted him and as bad as he was, he would get a few points out of each contest (maybe every 2nd one). Gibcus is meant to be an interceptor yet his NAB average is 55. Having said that, at this price I am happy if he looks solid in a role. I have no issue with these 150-180k players, it is the 275k one that cost you if they just make their b/evens as they suck an extra 100k in capital.
 
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https://www.afl.com.au/news/705348/...r-r1-debut-nicks-flags-new-role-for-young-gun

PRIZED Adelaide draftee Josh Rachele is "a big chance" to debut in round one as the Crows map out how to help the dynamic forward make an immediate transition to AFL level.

Rachele has settled in well at West Lakes after being snared with pick No.6 in the 2021 NAB AFL Draft, already adding noticeable strength and building his fitness since arriving amid comparisons to Greater Western Sydney star Toby Greene.

The 18-year-old has been guided by former skipper Taylor Walker, with coach Matthew Nicks emphatic when asked if the classy youngster could be unveiled against Fremantle in the Crows' season-opener.

"He's a big chance for round one," Nicks told AFL.com.au.

"He was already well built, and he'd done a lot of work leading in prior to being drafted to get himself physically ready to play an AFL game.

"It's really exciting what he's brought to the group. He's a competitive beast, he likes kicking goals, and those players are important.

"He's settled in really well and jumped straight in under Tex's wing. Tex has been incredible this pre-season integrating Josh into the group."

A small forward who can push into the midfield, Rachele's early challenge at AFL level will be harnessing his speed and power for long periods.

Nicks said it was an issue the Crows were working through, with the option of introducing the Victorian to the top level with restricted game time.

"He's a powerful footballer, so he's going to be one of those guys you see a fair bit of speed from," Nicks said.

"We're looking at what that's going to equate to over 120 minutes. That's going to be the challenge.

"But we've got the ability to play guys like Josh or certain players for 60 or 70 per cent game time."
And there it is, the pump up and the truth. limited game time due to Victorian limited game time in 2021. @pizza safety hold your head high son - you nailed it.
 
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And there it is, the pump up and the truth. limited game time due to Victorian limited game time in 2021. @pizza safety hold your head high son - you nailed it.
Thanks but plenty to play out, we will see what unfolds, there could still be a few guys talented enough to overcome that disadvantage
 
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Been harping on a bit about concerns with Vic Draftees, so trying to understand it a bit more. Worth noting that I'm reading these games had reduced quarter lengths like the AFL in 2020, someone correct me if I'm wrong as I only see one source.

Looking at the 2020 draft, this draft was quite terrible in teams of ready to go mids. Will Phillips had 22 disp a game (shorter games remember), Hollands 17 disp but mid/fwd, Fin Macrae 17 disp mid/fwd, had a 34 disp game in 17s.

So going by this, Will Phil is really all we're going by here. He looked off the pace for most of the year I thought, did he just struggle to adjust because bad, or was it because of all the missed footy? IDK. Fin Macrae struggled as well over 4 quarters, perhaps he wasn't good enough at the time to be a 30 disp mid in nab league, but played out of position there so who knows.

This year we have Daicos (36 disp), MacDonald (31 disp), Ward (30 disp), Hobbs (24 disp).

So in summary, we basically have a sample size of 1 basically for inside mids (Will Phil) in relation to how 30disp vic draftees go after a corona year into the AFL. Will Phil did look terrible in preseason from memory, so I think I'll reserve judgement for the Practice and AAMI game for Daicos, Ward, and MacDonald.
 
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If he's ready I'm sure Gibcus will play at least the odd game this season, but it's hard to see how he automatically slots into such an experienced backline. Butts last season was in a very different situation as the only real key defender in the team a lot of the time.
Butts was 4 years older, locked into the best 22 of a very average side, far stronger build at 97kg and therefore able to hold his own in contests and a better kick of the footy, why exactly is he being compared to Gibcus in the first place?
 
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