If theyve got everyone fit its beyond me why theyd play Dunkley forward personally, Bont and Smith are definitely better up there and Treloar and Libba are on par at absolute worst, taking one of your best clearance mids out of the stoppage to play him in a role hes largely useless at makes zero sense to me but it is Bevo we are dealing with here so I'm far from confident.
Position 2022: Forward Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
- Start date
Loving the discussion so far, think that this is where seasons will be made this year.
Currently have Dunkley as F1, mainly because he’s the biggest potential gamebreaker if he goes 120. Saying that, durability has to come into consideration, having played 15 and 12 in the past two seasons. As mentioned in the midfield thread, It’s a contract year year, and Libba isn’t getting any younger. Classic risk/reward at this stage, though the risk at the moment probably has to do with not starting him.
Butters also firmly on the radar. Scoring potential is there, especially as he almost hit the ton by half-time in a game last season. Role as mentioned above looks good too. Port could really do with a bit more depth in the middle, and if he’s there almost full-time it’s a huge tick.
Heeney is a bit of an enigma at this stage. The reports of more midfield time, combined with Mills’ Achilles and Kennedy’s role change has me just-about locking him in. It almost goes without saying, but the durability issues are there, but he’s got massive potential to go 110+, particularly if he takes advantage early in the season. Probably more of a risk if you trade him in, as I’m expecting a strong first few rounds.
Currently have Dunkley as F1, mainly because he’s the biggest potential gamebreaker if he goes 120. Saying that, durability has to come into consideration, having played 15 and 12 in the past two seasons. As mentioned in the midfield thread, It’s a contract year year, and Libba isn’t getting any younger. Classic risk/reward at this stage, though the risk at the moment probably has to do with not starting him.
Butters also firmly on the radar. Scoring potential is there, especially as he almost hit the ton by half-time in a game last season. Role as mentioned above looks good too. Port could really do with a bit more depth in the middle, and if he’s there almost full-time it’s a huge tick.
Heeney is a bit of an enigma at this stage. The reports of more midfield time, combined with Mills’ Achilles and Kennedy’s role change has me just-about locking him in. It almost goes without saying, but the durability issues are there, but he’s got massive potential to go 110+, particularly if he takes advantage early in the season. Probably more of a risk if you trade him in, as I’m expecting a strong first few rounds.
I'm definitely taking Cogs with the expectation that he's a keepable F6 type, which then has to factor into what I need from anyone else that is started.
Injury last year has been the only thing to keep him from keeper numbers over the past 7 years.
I like his defensive work and his marking as a forward, more about the guys he's competing with that he's the 2nd best rather than any big statement on him. I also don't really like him as a forward (I still think for his own sake he should have left the Dogs last year, great sign for the culture there that he didn't!) but the embarrassment of riches says to me that's really where he should be playing for them and that is kind of disgusting really as an opposition fan whose team could have had him as a F/S!!!
Bont is definitely better but he's also in a different league as a midfielder and I'll always believe that midfield is the most important spot and where the superstar should play.
Smith is a very different kind of forward, could definitely buy the argument he's better but I'd also say he's a considerably better player on the wing or streaming from stoppages than Dunkley.
Libba is on another level to Dunkley as a clearance player, not a knock on Dunkley but Libba is in the absolute elite of the elite in that area and not just of current players, I've seen maybe a dozen players in my lifetime that I'd even consider taking over Libba if I needed a clearance to save my life. There's not a big difference as forwards but again there's a clear gap as midfielders.
Treloar again is a very different kind of forward/mid, he offers a very different skillset but when you've already got Libba, Macrae and Bont on the inside, that burst player, imo, is a better balance for the midfield. FWIW though I do expect those two to rotate a fair bit as one of the great aspects of Macrae and Bont is that they can flip between inside and outside at any time and to balance the overall group.
For mine Dunkley is only their 4th best pure clearance guy and he's also a distant 5th as a breakaway player at stoppages. That he'd be the best clearance player at most sides is irrelevant when it's Macrae, Bont and Libba ahead of him. That he's actually pretty good on the breakaway is also irrelevant when it's Macrae, Bont, Smith and Treloar that beat him there.
The question is can he force his way ahead of any of that group and get prime midfield minutes, reality is that he only needs enough to push to the 110 mark to be a winning pick, an injury or two and he can very quickly push much further than that as we all know. The problem is that the role he closed last year in would actually make him a bad pick and, imo, that role is actually the "logical" one given their team.
End of the day though, he's an 85 type in that bad role but he's a solid 95 in an ok role, he's a 110 in a good role and he's a 130 type in a great role and the reality is he's probably an injury away at any point from moving from end to end on that scale! I honestly can't argue with anyone who projected anywhere on that range and all I hope is some kind of indicator through the preseason games because ultimately his durability record is dreadful and if we're paying for a 103 guy you really want some certainty somewhere in it all! I'm ok taking that durability on if the 110+ roles look likely, I'm a lot more concerned if they look unlikely!
FWIW, he's at F1 in my latest draft, so to a large extent I'm playing devil's advocate here.
Injury last year has been the only thing to keep him from keeper numbers over the past 7 years.
I like his defensive work and his marking as a forward, more about the guys he's competing with that he's the 2nd best rather than any big statement on him. I also don't really like him as a forward (I still think for his own sake he should have left the Dogs last year, great sign for the culture there that he didn't!) but the embarrassment of riches says to me that's really where he should be playing for them and that is kind of disgusting really as an opposition fan whose team could have had him as a F/S!!!
Bont is definitely better but he's also in a different league as a midfielder and I'll always believe that midfield is the most important spot and where the superstar should play.
Smith is a very different kind of forward, could definitely buy the argument he's better but I'd also say he's a considerably better player on the wing or streaming from stoppages than Dunkley.
Libba is on another level to Dunkley as a clearance player, not a knock on Dunkley but Libba is in the absolute elite of the elite in that area and not just of current players, I've seen maybe a dozen players in my lifetime that I'd even consider taking over Libba if I needed a clearance to save my life. There's not a big difference as forwards but again there's a clear gap as midfielders.
Treloar again is a very different kind of forward/mid, he offers a very different skillset but when you've already got Libba, Macrae and Bont on the inside, that burst player, imo, is a better balance for the midfield. FWIW though I do expect those two to rotate a fair bit as one of the great aspects of Macrae and Bont is that they can flip between inside and outside at any time and to balance the overall group.
For mine Dunkley is only their 4th best pure clearance guy and he's also a distant 5th as a breakaway player at stoppages. That he'd be the best clearance player at most sides is irrelevant when it's Macrae, Bont and Libba ahead of him. That he's actually pretty good on the breakaway is also irrelevant when it's Macrae, Bont, Smith and Treloar that beat him there.
The question is can he force his way ahead of any of that group and get prime midfield minutes, reality is that he only needs enough to push to the 110 mark to be a winning pick, an injury or two and he can very quickly push much further than that as we all know. The problem is that the role he closed last year in would actually make him a bad pick and, imo, that role is actually the "logical" one given their team.
End of the day though, he's an 85 type in that bad role but he's a solid 95 in an ok role, he's a 110 in a good role and he's a 130 type in a great role and the reality is he's probably an injury away at any point from moving from end to end on that scale! I honestly can't argue with anyone who projected anywhere on that range and all I hope is some kind of indicator through the preseason games because ultimately his durability record is dreadful and if we're paying for a 103 guy you really want some certainty somewhere in it all! I'm ok taking that durability on if the 110+ roles look likely, I'm a lot more concerned if they look unlikely!
FWIW, he's at F1 in my latest draft, so to a large extent I'm playing devil's advocate here.
Imagine if they play Dunkley as the "fake" ruck.
I actually wrote a season or so ago people easily forget that the Bulldogs actually have better mids than Dunkley and they don't need to use him as the main man.
Funny when you forget SC for a moment and actually think about how a team lines up and plays and where a player fits in
Still my F1 fwiw
I actually wrote a season or so ago people easily forget that the Bulldogs actually have better mids than Dunkley and they don't need to use him as the main man.
Funny when you forget SC for a moment and actually think about how a team lines up and plays and where a player fits in
Still my F1 fwiw
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Just curious how much would these $ 450k forwards will cost after 6 games if they average 100 (realise scores will vary each game).
Might be easier to wait until Round 7 when we actually know the first lot of DPP's and which ones of Bailey/Butters/de Goey/Graham/Heeney/Thomas etc are actually scoring like premiums then jump on.
Would be happy starting Dunkley , Heeney , Kiddy , Cogs , Curnow , Rookie (fingers crossed)
Gets me back to 12-5-5 which I like
Might be easier to wait until Round 7 when we actually know the first lot of DPP's and which ones of Bailey/Butters/de Goey/Graham/Heeney/Thomas etc are actually scoring like premiums then jump on.
Would be happy starting Dunkley , Heeney , Kiddy , Cogs , Curnow , Rookie (fingers crossed)
Gets me back to 12-5-5 which I like
It’s a good question. Using my crude rule of thumb that the last $25k takes ages to make, I think the answer would be c. $475k on average.
That probably needs to be thought of in the context of fairly priced players deflating (because of the MN falling), but it does seem a pretty modest premium to pay for greater certainty, if you have other players you’d like to start.
That probably needs to be thought of in the context of fairly priced players deflating (because of the MN falling), but it does seem a pretty modest premium to pay for greater certainty, if you have other players you’d like to start.
If the rookies are there it's an option. I think one of the reasons we're seeing so many of those names pop up is a lack of confidence in rookie options.
Historically those guys wont change an awful lot in price.
Taranto was up 90k averaging 103 by round 10.
Butters was up 30k after 4 rounds at 103, after 5 at 90 he was actually cheaper but the timeline messes hard with this one.
Mills was a higher price bracket but similar average jump and was 30k more expensive at round 10.
Merrett back in 2016 averaged 105 to round 11 (from 85) and was 30k more expensive.
Basically you're probably sacrificing about 50k on them if they work out.
Simple fact is that over the first 10 rounds, most of the cash goes to the significantly underpriced guys, breaking even for everyone above an 80 starting point basically requires 10+ points of improvement in that period.
I think you're about spot on around the ground, I expect he takes 55-65% of CBA though as a caveat. It's also worth noting that the forward time will be in a high half forward role essentially playing as an extra midfielder/winger around the ground. He's one of their best leading mark targets and they love to use him that way but he's too good at clearances to not also want in there.
He definitely could play a higher amount of midfield, be shocked if it was lower than that.
Historically those guys wont change an awful lot in price.
Taranto was up 90k averaging 103 by round 10.
Butters was up 30k after 4 rounds at 103, after 5 at 90 he was actually cheaper but the timeline messes hard with this one.
Mills was a higher price bracket but similar average jump and was 30k more expensive at round 10.
Merrett back in 2016 averaged 105 to round 11 (from 85) and was 30k more expensive.
Basically you're probably sacrificing about 50k on them if they work out.
Simple fact is that over the first 10 rounds, most of the cash goes to the significantly underpriced guys, breaking even for everyone above an 80 starting point basically requires 10+ points of improvement in that period.
I think you're about spot on around the ground, I expect he takes 55-65% of CBA though as a caveat. It's also worth noting that the forward time will be in a high half forward role essentially playing as an extra midfielder/winger around the ground. He's one of their best leading mark targets and they love to use him that way but he's too good at clearances to not also want in there.
He definitely could play a higher amount of midfield, be shocked if it was lower than that.
Thanks for that.
Happy to start Dunkley , Heeney , Cogs & Curnow.
Depending on defender rookies could start Kiddy forward as well , hopefully get a playing Rookie at F6 (obviously) makes other lines stronger.
I am not a good enough to choose between Bailey/Butters/de Goey/Graham/Thomas to make the right selection , not convinced on Gresham or Rayner so might sit back and watch and reassess after Round 6.
Happy to start Dunkley , Heeney , Cogs & Curnow.
Depending on defender rookies could start Kiddy forward as well , hopefully get a playing Rookie at F6 (obviously) makes other lines stronger.
I am not a good enough to choose between Bailey/Butters/de Goey/Graham/Thomas to make the right selection , not convinced on Gresham or Rayner so might sit back and watch and reassess after Round 6.