He'll be 29 when the season starts which is on the wrong side of the peak but not quite the SC graveyard yet (maybe if he was still mid only).
Agree 110 is on the edge of his range now but don't see 100 as his maybe ceiling. Depends on his how his fitness looks but I'm not ready to write him off yet. Guy just knows how to rack them up. Not my first picked but when I go heavy forward I have a spot for him.
Durability just too unreliable in this group with DPP guys coming through. Would take absolute carnage at the Dogs for him to get the minutes/role to go 110+ this year. Even 100 would be a solid effort given he's more likely to be playing outside where he loses CP but still can't kick.
Yet those 110+ seasons still sit there staring at us all to tempt
Crouch and Dawson added to the midfield, add in more midfield time for the next gen types of Berry,Schoenberg etc and its hard to see him maintaining the same numbers.
You could argue that the side being better would help his scoring, as would additional tag targets. Laird's ability to find space for cheap touches is in the elite of the elite group so if the team has the ball more, especially a guy like Dawson who hits targets and a guy like Crouch who looks for short kicks to open teammates, could definitely be more points.
Looking at the top 15 guys:
Macrae/Bont - Top side and two stars.
Steele - Unicorn
Miller - Even bigger unicorn.
Oliver/Petracca - Top side, two stars.
Lyons - Top side and realistically had Zorko at 16th as well as Neale and Clug.
Mitchell - Probably the most similar player to Laird but has scored no matter what.
Walsh - Unicorn
Laird - Unicorn
Merrett/Parish - Two stars.
Guthrie - Top side and lots of support.
Wines - Top side.
Mills - Good side with Parker 18th as well.
So basically 4 of the top 15 aren't well supported/top side guys.
Mostly devils advocate but wouldn't shock me at all if Laird was actually the top scoring midfielder this year.
For me Laird is a good pick but there's a glut of even better picks, so much so that Tom Mitchell hasn't been able to get a look-in in most of my sides.
I actually love this midfield group. As I said above, I could easily see Laird as the top scoring mid and he hasn't gone near my team because there's so many guys I like for that!
Midfield is easily the hardest line to make a call on initially, you can really only start 3 or 4 of the names you want to and the list usually bats 7 or 8 deep.
Always is other than Rucks for mine. Even the cheap mid options are super expensive so there's so much to get right. You can generally construct strong for and against stories on everyone, the top guys are "fully priced" but also elite and proven and captain options. The value guys are value but there's a reason for it.
What you chase changes narratives completely. Like I wouldn't bet against Petracca outscoring Oliver and he's much cheaper but if you put the gun to my head I'm taking Oliver as the higher scorer every time but it's 70k
. Macrae and Bont have the same story and those are just picking two teammates where you can isolate the most variables!
This year I genuinely want to pick 8 premiums as well. Only positive of Walsh being injured is there's one less that I'm considering... I can so easily make the starting case for Macrae, Oliver, Steele, Miller, Bont, Mitchell, Laird, Parish and Petracca without even trying.
And then there's Neale
Always there tempting me but I just don't trust Ratten. He doesn't like players with composure or footskills to be in the midfield and every year they talk up that they need that and so far each year they get worse at it as he throws more and more butchers at the problem. I mean honestly, Steele shouldn't be the clear classiest midfielder for a team and Dunstan should never have been the 2nd classiest guy in an AFL side and yet they keep playing Ross, Crouch, Hanners (great by hand, woeful kick), Jones (I like his dash but he's a stinker of a kick) while guys like Clark, Billings, Gresham and Higgins all get stuck in peripheral support roles instead.
I like Ratten but he's always been a baffling coach for mine. I can't question the effort he extracts from players but I can't help but feel like he handcu*** the team positionally and can never trust him to play guys in the right spots