Position 2022: Forward Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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Really liked what I saw from him late last year, has had a great preseason, here is a snippet :-
"Track watchers are excited by the form Coleman has shown playing as a rebounding defender in pre-season, a role synonymous with a rise in KFC SuperCoach scoring."
Was taking some kick ins at Brisbane's intra-club also I believe which adds further appeal, big watch in preseason games.
Said this a few times now, but we saw how well Impey/CJ/Ziebell/Hall scored last year playing half back & at a similar starting price.
"Track watchers are excited by the form Coleman has shown playing as a rebounding defender in pre-season, a role synonymous with a rise in KFC SuperCoach scoring."
Was taking some kick ins at Brisbane's intra-club also I believe which adds further appeal, big watch in preseason games.
Said this a few times now, but we saw how well Impey/CJ/Ziebell/Hall scored last year playing half back & at a similar starting price.
Yes but Coleman is 50k more expensive than Impey, and at that 200k - 250k range, 50k is a HUGE difference.
At Coleman's price, even if he were to average 91 like Impey did (which let's be honest is pretty much a best case scenario, a lot of recency bias here with the success of Ziebell/Impey/Hall...), then by upgrade season (round 10 let's say), he would've only risen by 160k.
91 for a 263k player looks decent on paper, but even then it's probably only above average case generation.
For the same price you could have Jarrod Berry, who has produced a 97 average season literally the season before.
The only place where I see Coleman viable is in the forward line, and even then I think many things will have to align to make the pick worth it. Very cautious about picking Coleman despite personally selecting all of Ziebell, Impey and Hall last year, especially with all of these players being highly experienced and Coleman being only 21.
Will watch the pre-season games closely.
At Coleman's price, even if he were to average 91 like Impey did (which let's be honest is pretty much a best case scenario, a lot of recency bias here with the success of Ziebell/Impey/Hall...), then by upgrade season (round 10 let's say), he would've only risen by 160k.
91 for a 263k player looks decent on paper, but even then it's probably only above average case generation.
For the same price you could have Jarrod Berry, who has produced a 97 average season literally the season before.
The only place where I see Coleman viable is in the forward line, and even then I think many things will have to align to make the pick worth it. Very cautious about picking Coleman despite personally selecting all of Ziebell, Impey and Hall last year, especially with all of these players being highly experienced and Coleman being only 21.
Will watch the pre-season games closely.
Hind/Impey would be the most comparable types to him and think that's well within his wheelhouse as an outcome.
Role is a great fantasy role. He's got a very good skillset for it. Rich is the only real competition, let's be honest you don't play a guy like Zorko in a low value position when he's an All Australian calibre player at a very hard position like HF, and no one else really stacks up in the role.
Depending what happens with the forwards and backs as far as premium scoring goes, a 92+ from his starting point could be right on that F6/D6 range. Forwards historically it would be easier.
I don't think anyone last year would have been unhappy with starting Dale, Hind and Ziebell and finishing with them even. Especially if they happened to dump Dunkley into Zorko and jump on a rampaging Hall along the way!
I personally think that the keeper line up forward will be higher this year but historically 92+ would be good even to a F4 level from that price point especially.
Realistically an 85 average with a couple of tons in a month approaching round 4 would be a job well done, should make ~200k and have you ahead on bankable points, especially with the DPP flexibility he offers. Hoping for 90+ though if his role aligns with what I expect in preseason and they pick a team like I expect. Of course if Fa gan is committed to tanking their midfield early in the season he might just get a healthy increase in supply as well!
Role is a great fantasy role. He's got a very good skillset for it. Rich is the only real competition, let's be honest you don't play a guy like Zorko in a low value position when he's an All Australian calibre player at a very hard position like HF, and no one else really stacks up in the role.
Depending what happens with the forwards and backs as far as premium scoring goes, a 92+ from his starting point could be right on that F6/D6 range. Forwards historically it would be easier.
I don't think anyone last year would have been unhappy with starting Dale, Hind and Ziebell and finishing with them even. Especially if they happened to dump Dunkley into Zorko and jump on a rampaging Hall along the way!
I personally think that the keeper line up forward will be higher this year but historically 92+ would be good even to a F4 level from that price point especially.
Realistically an 85 average with a couple of tons in a month approaching round 4 would be a job well done, should make ~200k and have you ahead on bankable points, especially with the DPP flexibility he offers. Hoping for 90+ though if his role aligns with what I expect in preseason and they pick a team like I expect. Of course if Fa gan is committed to tanking their midfield early in the season he might just get a healthy increase in supply as well!
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History of breakout failures at that level is high, Jiath one of the few better ones that I could remember. Role changes and return from injury would be a better %.
The risk with Coleman is we are not seeing him with Rich in the side. Expect he doesn't get sickouts. The positive is you have. a few games late last year which provide a template.
The potential for defender rookies is looking good. Dean Chesser Sinn Gibcus all looking a good chance. Hopefully Gibcus does better than the 55 he average in the NAB U18. Expect that may be a fantasy style number.
The risk with Coleman is we are not seeing him with Rich in the side. Expect he doesn't get sickouts. The positive is you have. a few games late last year which provide a template.
The potential for defender rookies is looking good. Dean Chesser Sinn Gibcus all looking a good chance. Hopefully Gibcus does better than the 55 he average in the NAB U18. Expect that may be a fantasy style number.
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A lot of years you simply wouldn't have many players in that price bracket that are potentially relevant. I remember one other year that a lot were picking 3 of these types up forward. I'm pretty sure Fasolo was one of them? Maybe Petrie was another?
We want players that have changed roles and/or clubs, or are returning from injury. There are so many this year that "could" be good picks, so at least there will be exit strategies if some don't start as expected.
Up forward there is Rayner, Coleman (d/f), Cogs (f/m), Phillips (f/m), McGovern, Curnow and Brodie (f/m) between $224K and $278K. In the mids there is Berry, Caldwell and Polec (plus the 3 f/m's) . Down back there is Milera, Bowey and Coleman with the d/f.
They won't all be good picks, but you'd be brave to say that none of them will. The young guys like Phillips, Brodie and Bowey are the higher risk options, which most will stay away from. Cogs, Rayner, Berry, Curnow and Milera are all returning from injury, so really just need to stay on the park to at least be reasonable stepping stones. They will almost certainly score better than rookies, and should provide greater job security. It's all between the ears with Polec, but if he's fair dinkum he should average 85 and make $200K.
Caldwell is high risk because of who he would be replacing in your team (top end rookie). But he has the role and body to score significantly better than the likes of JHF - IF he stays fit.
To me, Coleman and McGovern are similiar options (price and role change), and yet the % owned suggests they are miles apart. Gov will take more intercept marks and is a very good kick (may take some kickouts). Granted his history doesn't scream pick me, but the penny seems to have dropped this preseason. His brother was a hack forward until he wasn't.
We want players that have changed roles and/or clubs, or are returning from injury. There are so many this year that "could" be good picks, so at least there will be exit strategies if some don't start as expected.
Up forward there is Rayner, Coleman (d/f), Cogs (f/m), Phillips (f/m), McGovern, Curnow and Brodie (f/m) between $224K and $278K. In the mids there is Berry, Caldwell and Polec (plus the 3 f/m's) . Down back there is Milera, Bowey and Coleman with the d/f.
They won't all be good picks, but you'd be brave to say that none of them will. The young guys like Phillips, Brodie and Bowey are the higher risk options, which most will stay away from. Cogs, Rayner, Berry, Curnow and Milera are all returning from injury, so really just need to stay on the park to at least be reasonable stepping stones. They will almost certainly score better than rookies, and should provide greater job security. It's all between the ears with Polec, but if he's fair dinkum he should average 85 and make $200K.
Caldwell is high risk because of who he would be replacing in your team (top end rookie). But he has the role and body to score significantly better than the likes of JHF - IF he stays fit.
To me, Coleman and McGovern are similiar options (price and role change), and yet the % owned suggests they are miles apart. Gov will take more intercept marks and is a very good kick (may take some kickouts). Granted his history doesn't scream pick me, but the penny seems to have dropped this preseason. His brother was a hack forward until he wasn't.
If you look at his stats he wins a lot of contested possessions which is great for SC so it is potentially sustainable. If he gets more kick outs then 80+ is definitely gettable. Decent scorer off of sub 20 disposal games given a backline role last season, I think he can sustain his scoring if this continues. Rayner is not even close imo for consideration, I don't think someone who is coming off of an ACL who has never been a prolific ball winner even when played in the midfield at AFL level is going to turn into a midfield beast overnight.
You’ve discounted the fact that a 260k player who rises 160k equates to a one trade upgrade to a fallen premium in a lot of instances. While the value of a trade has diminished significantly with the increased trades this year, those 1 trade upgrades can really get you out in front of the pack.
That being said, he isn’t in my side and I’d have to see a pretty impressive game to pick him.
That being said, he isn’t in my side and I’d have to see a pretty impressive game to pick him.