Discussion 2022 AFL: Practice Matches & AAMI Community Series Discussion
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2016 I was definitely lurking here to try and glean whatever information I could as I went for 1st 
Will be my "so close yet so far" season most likely! Selwood and Lynch over Riewoldt and Kennedy for my final two trades cost me the win! Genuinely flipped coins on them and gutted that it was the two who are flogs that cost me over two of my favourite players of the past 20 years
Been good to find a new home after FFC died though and really enjoying it here.
Will be my "so close yet so far" season most likely! Selwood and Lynch over Riewoldt and Kennedy for my final two trades cost me the win! Genuinely flipped coins on them and gutted that it was the two who are flogs that cost me over two of my favourite players of the past 20 years
Been good to find a new home after FFC died though and really enjoying it here.
so many great people from FFC have come here it's good to see.
your write ups have saved me so much time this week thanks. cause I really CBF watching them all this round but will watch them all next week. to get a better understanding of roles and best 22s.
I think this week has put up more questions than answers to my team.
O'Meara hasn't been a terrible HF type in the past while Worpel has been useless outside the square, Mitchell is not going anywhere, so O'Meara definitely the one who makes sense to move out. It's shame that O'Meara and Worpel aren't good kicks either or you could push to the wing at least and use as extra midfielder, which I think you'll probably need at times this year.
Newcombe is impressive though.
Likelihood is Pendles probably replaces Dean by the byes so not really 2 there. Crisp looks a really good pick so no issues.
Daicos is a genuine chance of being a DEF also and would hold to his bye most likely if he is, barring a ridiculous price spike I have to cash!
Pies have the best bye round also being round 14 which you can plan through the byes with the 12 trades if you are looking at trouble approaching it. Worth noting that Sicily is also that bye if looking at him.
I don't even notice the likes mate! I could be a selfish bastard and just write it all up in an excel file but really I just do them so I've got a resource to go back to and like giving back to the community
I find it a good way to kind of reinforce and think about what I've seen, obviously when you look at stats it's interesting the ones where it lines up and the others it doesn't, like Gawn felt like he was 75% ruck to me but CBA was 50/50!
I think DGB should play, my comment was purely from a fantasy perspective that I don't think he's going to impact Sicily in any major fashion. He's probably cheap enough to be talked about but I think there are better fantasy options than him at this point.
I think, all else being equal, I'd feel a lot stronger that Sicily can average 105 than Hewett. Both have been durable outside of a major injury that wiped a season, so assuming that doesn't come into play but Hewett does have enough role uncertainty that can hurt his scores. Sicily has had a lot change but you've still got a guy who has averaged 105 against a guy who peaked at 88. I do think Hewett can do 95-105 if things go very well but I think 95 is probably the high end of a reasonable projection and I really like him but I think he's got an awful lot of no man's land in his landing spaces this year. If he was 100k cheaper I'd be all over him.
The role is actually my question with Hewett. Will he be used defensively? It hurts his scoring significantly if he is. Also there is the Walsh aspect to their midfield mix. Hewett is kind of their in between guy who is good in space and by foot but also very good in the contest, which unfortunately aligns most with what Walsh does also, Cerra is the one with the pure class and Cripps is the bull and marking target. I think all 4 can do well but Kennedy will take minutes and Hewett's best SC work is clearance stuff so it does hurt him if Kennedy does take big minutes.
Sicily is so hard to place for me, I guess my vibe is he's 2021 Ridley, particularly 2nd half of season, where there are just too many guys splitting the ball around, albeit a better intercept role. Lever/May another comparison.
Sicily is cheap enough that 95+ gets the job done and his history suggests that's very possible.
Ultimately though I think Sicily is a defensive pick. He's too popular and too risky to not start. If he's at 90, he still makes cash, and he makes an interesting upgrade decision. If he's at 105+ and you don't have him you're starting a long way back. Hewett at 6% selection would be nice to have if he works but also isn't crippling you if you don't and if he comes out as a 105 guy, just pay the extra 50k for him and still get a discount at round 6!
McInerney was already playing a fair bit of wing to end last season, was putting up low 80s and I think that's about the right range, he's missing either marking or tackling to really bump significantly higher.
I expect Heeney will be the guy who takes up the around the ground target role that Dawson was so good at this year, Dawson's top strength was that he was a much better mark than basically all other wingers and so he became a defacto CHF target and then, obviously, his kicking skills add massive value to his touches. McInerney is more of a run to space for the open mark, which isn't worth nearly the same as contested marks.
You know the competition is stiff when missing 2 games in the past 6 seasons is being used against you as a point of difference
I've got both in my side right now. Crisp's role has upside, his kicking limits him a bit but there's no real reason he can't brute force 110+ from it. Perfect age range and dat durability!
Lloyd has upside given what he's done before but I think 105 is a reasonable point for him.
Basically though they're both in my very top tier of options if I need someone to play 22 games, there's no guarantees in this game but they're as good as it gets on that front and given the very risky names populating my forward line, I think it's very important that I'm safe elsewhere as much as possible.
I think I cemented about 5 players if they're fit and available for round 1. Firmed on about 5 more and left with 20 spots that are bigger questions
Mansell is in the way for a spot but not as in the way for cash generation should he get a spot. Rioli is the one penciled in for the role that he pretty much has to be playing. I don't think you could pick him if both are also picked.
Be interesting to see next game though.
Newcombe is impressive though.
Likelihood is Pendles probably replaces Dean by the byes so not really 2 there. Crisp looks a really good pick so no issues.
Daicos is a genuine chance of being a DEF also and would hold to his bye most likely if he is, barring a ridiculous price spike I have to cash!
Pies have the best bye round also being round 14 which you can plan through the byes with the 12 trades if you are looking at trouble approaching it. Worth noting that Sicily is also that bye if looking at him.
I don't even notice the likes mate! I could be a selfish bastard and just write it all up in an excel file but really I just do them so I've got a resource to go back to and like giving back to the community
I find it a good way to kind of reinforce and think about what I've seen, obviously when you look at stats it's interesting the ones where it lines up and the others it doesn't, like Gawn felt like he was 75% ruck to me but CBA was 50/50!
I think DGB should play, my comment was purely from a fantasy perspective that I don't think he's going to impact Sicily in any major fashion. He's probably cheap enough to be talked about but I think there are better fantasy options than him at this point.
I think, all else being equal, I'd feel a lot stronger that Sicily can average 105 than Hewett. Both have been durable outside of a major injury that wiped a season, so assuming that doesn't come into play but Hewett does have enough role uncertainty that can hurt his scores. Sicily has had a lot change but you've still got a guy who has averaged 105 against a guy who peaked at 88. I do think Hewett can do 95-105 if things go very well but I think 95 is probably the high end of a reasonable projection and I really like him but I think he's got an awful lot of no man's land in his landing spaces this year. If he was 100k cheaper I'd be all over him.
The role is actually my question with Hewett. Will he be used defensively? It hurts his scoring significantly if he is. Also there is the Walsh aspect to their midfield mix. Hewett is kind of their in between guy who is good in space and by foot but also very good in the contest, which unfortunately aligns most with what Walsh does also, Cerra is the one with the pure class and Cripps is the bull and marking target. I think all 4 can do well but Kennedy will take minutes and Hewett's best SC work is clearance stuff so it does hurt him if Kennedy does take big minutes.
Sicily is so hard to place for me, I guess my vibe is he's 2021 Ridley, particularly 2nd half of season, where there are just too many guys splitting the ball around, albeit a better intercept role. Lever/May another comparison.
Sicily is cheap enough that 95+ gets the job done and his history suggests that's very possible.
Ultimately though I think Sicily is a defensive pick. He's too popular and too risky to not start. If he's at 90, he still makes cash, and he makes an interesting upgrade decision. If he's at 105+ and you don't have him you're starting a long way back. Hewett at 6% selection would be nice to have if he works but also isn't crippling you if you don't and if he comes out as a 105 guy, just pay the extra 50k for him and still get a discount at round 6!
McInerney was already playing a fair bit of wing to end last season, was putting up low 80s and I think that's about the right range, he's missing either marking or tackling to really bump significantly higher.
I expect Heeney will be the guy who takes up the around the ground target role that Dawson was so good at this year, Dawson's top strength was that he was a much better mark than basically all other wingers and so he became a defacto CHF target and then, obviously, his kicking skills add massive value to his touches. McInerney is more of a run to space for the open mark, which isn't worth nearly the same as contested marks.
You know the competition is stiff when missing 2 games in the past 6 seasons is being used against you as a point of difference
I've got both in my side right now. Crisp's role has upside, his kicking limits him a bit but there's no real reason he can't brute force 110+ from it. Perfect age range and dat durability!
Lloyd has upside given what he's done before but I think 105 is a reasonable point for him.
Basically though they're both in my very top tier of options if I need someone to play 22 games, there's no guarantees in this game but they're as good as it gets on that front and given the very risky names populating my forward line, I think it's very important that I'm safe elsewhere as much as possible.
I think I cemented about 5 players if they're fit and available for round 1. Firmed on about 5 more and left with 20 spots that are bigger questions
Mansell is in the way for a spot but not as in the way for cash generation should he get a spot. Rioli is the one penciled in for the role that he pretty much has to be playing. I don't think you could pick him if both are also picked.
Be interesting to see next game though.
I also like him as a forward, he's not going to get nearly as many touches there and from a fantasy perspective it's a terrible role but he's an exceptionally creative kick I50 and, as you said, very dangerous at stoppages. I also think he has midfield rotations this year which are easier to do from forward.
I wouldn't be surprised if he's among the best in the league on I50 retention, he always seems to hit targets when I'm watching.
I hate it as I had him in multiple keeper leagues though and was just eagerly awaiting Houli's retirement
I wouldn't be surprised if he's among the best in the league on I50 retention, he always seems to hit targets when I'm watching.
I hate it as I had him in multiple keeper leagues though and was just eagerly awaiting Houli's retirement
I think one of the big questions I have is my Backline do you load up with so much value there or do you try go very light with players like Andy McGrath, Scott Pendlebury, Josh Kennedy and even maybe Dayne Zorko all playing in the half back role during this pre season and likely to get dpp R6. most of them would be knocking on the top 6/10 defenders list.
Tough one.
*Shame L.Weller already has dpp cause he would be another one knocking on that door for top 10 defenders with this role.
Tough one.
*Shame L.Weller already has dpp cause he would be another one knocking on that door for top 10 defenders with this role.
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I think the options at sub premium level will determine it. Looking a little thin for quality rookies as usual. Expect we may have to go 3-4 premiums again. Many think fwd is the risk on DPP, think you point is more correct, risk is DEF.
Unless Fyfe has an injury and plays forward for first 5-6 rounds, scoring 70-80, then goes mids again, you will not want him.
If a Pendlebury goes back then it is likely his scoring goes up and he become relevant in that role, in a role that is not temporary. Zorko I expect is more forward than back and not sure if JPK suits the role. Pendles and McGrath would be the likely targets.
Interesting point on Weller - already DPP so even playing back he will not be reclassified.
Unless Fyfe has an injury and plays forward for first 5-6 rounds, scoring 70-80, then goes mids again, you will not want him.
If a Pendlebury goes back then it is likely his scoring goes up and he become relevant in that role, in a role that is not temporary. Zorko I expect is more forward than back and not sure if JPK suits the role. Pendles and McGrath would be the likely targets.
Interesting point on Weller - already DPP so even playing back he will not be reclassified.
The defender change is far less relevant, imo, than the forward. Very few of the midfields turned defenders are going to change the dynamic. The elite rebounding defenders already match the premium midfielders a rung below the very elite. I'd be surprised if any of that group are averaging 110+ to the point that they change the equation and the top 6 defenders are already all at 105+ so a couple more in there just expands the depth.
Ultimately paying 82.5 for a Sicily to average 98 is going to get you further ahead than waiting for those guys to get DPP, prove that they average 105+ and pay the 105 for them which by round 7 they'll realistically be pretty much fair priced.
Basically the position changes really only matter if they're considerably above the existing options or they'll expand the pool at the top far enough to move the premium line.
They matter up forward because you get the Fyfe, Kelly or Darcy coming back from an injury and playing limited midfield minutes types who completely change the equation when they go back to the midfield but even there you're talking like 2-5 players most likely who that applies to.
Probably still more value in trying to find the defenders who are going to become premium midfielders, like Mills and Laird last year, than the reverse.
Ultimately paying 82.5 for a Sicily to average 98 is going to get you further ahead than waiting for those guys to get DPP, prove that they average 105+ and pay the 105 for them which by round 7 they'll realistically be pretty much fair priced.
Basically the position changes really only matter if they're considerably above the existing options or they'll expand the pool at the top far enough to move the premium line.
They matter up forward because you get the Fyfe, Kelly or Darcy coming back from an injury and playing limited midfield minutes types who completely change the equation when they go back to the midfield but even there you're talking like 2-5 players most likely who that applies to.
Probably still more value in trying to find the defenders who are going to become premium midfielders, like Mills and Laird last year, than the reverse.
