Position 2022: Ruck Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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I think they'll ease Gawn through some games to be sure, giving Jackson more ruck time and parking him forward of back to clunk marks. Probably won't affect his scoring too much however.
I think he's a 115-120 range this year. And at $650k plus you're paying overs but it's still a pretty bankable investment for what will likely be close to a top 10 scorer overall.
Problem is, if he gets his bigger scores at the start of the year and tails off, the value of trading him in is bad and you should have just started him.
I think he's a 115-120 range this year. And at $650k plus you're paying overs but it's still a pretty bankable investment for what will likely be close to a top 10 scorer overall.
Problem is, if he gets his bigger scores at the start of the year and tails off, the value of trading him in is bad and you should have just started him.
He has snuck into a few of my drafts as a least worst option. Likely to at least score to his price and possibly a bit more, and a couple of outs for true success - getting to ruck solo and become a genuine premo, or get DPP.
If he didn't have the bad bye, and we had a bye slingshot as a third out, he'd be in my team for sure.
If he didn't have the bad bye, and we had a bye slingshot as a third out, he'd be in my team for sure.
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He averaged 113 in the games where he had over 70% tog, for the year he averaged 1.1 points per minute compared to Darcy's 1.19, Gawn was slightly lower than him for ppm but Gawn is a running machine and hardly goes to the bench.
With Ryder out at the start of the year I think I'm going to turn to Marshall because I'm thinking that if he stays healthy he'll either score very well without Ryder and get close to Gawn and Darcy for points per game or he will eventually get DPP with Ryder playing most games in the side and I'll then send him forward and be able to choose between Darcy and Gawn. With the money saved I think I'm better off doing things this way as I don't think Gawn or Darcy are likely to hurt you too much.
With Ryder out at the start of the year I think I'm going to turn to Marshall because I'm thinking that if he stays healthy he'll either score very well without Ryder and get close to Gawn and Darcy for points per game or he will eventually get DPP with Ryder playing most games in the side and I'll then send him forward and be able to choose between Darcy and Gawn. With the money saved I think I'm better off doing things this way as I don't think Gawn or Darcy are likely to hurt you too much.
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It’s far from ideal but I still consider Darcy to be more of an injury risk than Marshall, not loving any of the options entirely outside of Grundy.
Gawn is going to be more impacted by Jackson IMO and is getting older. Darcy’s price is a lot to pay for a player with a couple of injuries in preseason and only one elite season at this stage.
Gawn is going to be more impacted by Jackson IMO and is getting older. Darcy’s price is a lot to pay for a player with a couple of injuries in preseason and only one elite season at this stage.
I decided to check Gawn's SC scores from last season & his historical averages/games played :-
The 3 games he missed in 2020 was because of a knee injury, he has also battling a shoulder issue :-
Melbourne captain Max Gawn has lifted the lid on just how bad his knee injury was in the back-half of the 2020 season.
Gawn missed three games after copping a knock to his knee in the Demons’ win over Adelaide, before returning for the final stretch.
The ruckman said his specialist was “gobsmacked” by his ability to play through the PCL injury, upon his first proper check-up when the Dees returned to Victoria.
“I did hurt my knee pretty significantly in the Adelaide game, but I was already playing under a little bit of duress with my shoulder, but that one set me back, I was out of the team for three weeks and then I came back a little bit prematurely,” Gawn told SEN Afternoons on Wednesday.
“There was five weeks to go in the season and we were aiming for finals and I was under a fair bit of duress, but in saying that I was able to get out on the park and once that siren goes there’s no real duress you can claim.
“My job now is to get my knee right and make sure I’m ready to go for 2021.
Here are his games breakdown from last year :-
The game that stands out obviously is the round 7 one when he scored just 63, I read in Gawn's book about that game - it was in Tassie & they had to catch a very early morning flight/playing that day. Gawn said he had never felt so flat/ tired leading into a game as he was up at 3am I think he said.
His good mate Adam Tomlinson did his knee early in that game also which he was obviously upset about/ affected him - so there were a few good reasons why he had such a shocker, one of his worst ever games. Apart from that 1 shocker, ever other score was over 90 with a couple of monsters in there as usual from him.
The 3 games he missed in 2020 was because of a knee injury, he has also battling a shoulder issue :-
Melbourne captain Max Gawn has lifted the lid on just how bad his knee injury was in the back-half of the 2020 season.
Gawn missed three games after copping a knock to his knee in the Demons’ win over Adelaide, before returning for the final stretch.
The ruckman said his specialist was “gobsmacked” by his ability to play through the PCL injury, upon his first proper check-up when the Dees returned to Victoria.
“I did hurt my knee pretty significantly in the Adelaide game, but I was already playing under a little bit of duress with my shoulder, but that one set me back, I was out of the team for three weeks and then I came back a little bit prematurely,” Gawn told SEN Afternoons on Wednesday.
“There was five weeks to go in the season and we were aiming for finals and I was under a fair bit of duress, but in saying that I was able to get out on the park and once that siren goes there’s no real duress you can claim.
“My job now is to get my knee right and make sure I’m ready to go for 2021.
Here are his games breakdown from last year :-
The game that stands out obviously is the round 7 one when he scored just 63, I read in Gawn's book about that game - it was in Tassie & they had to catch a very early morning flight/playing that day. Gawn said he had never felt so flat/ tired leading into a game as he was up at 3am I think he said.
His good mate Adam Tomlinson did his knee early in that game also which he was obviously upset about/ affected him - so there were a few good reasons why he had such a shocker, one of his worst ever games. Apart from that 1 shocker, ever other score was over 90 with a couple of monsters in there as usual from him.
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More points for English then with intercepts or spoils
More points for English then with intercepts or spoils
Hard to read, Melbourne have a pretty easy schedule to start off with, especially for a ruck but you'd think they'd want early wins above all else as being ahead lets you make decisions instead of being forward to do things.
I don't mind his bye, at least he doesn't share it with the other viable options, albeit later is better because you could bail at that point and get the extra premium score if he's not working.
I have two major worries:
1. Durability - His record is pretty ordinary at this point. Only full season was the shortened season. Given ruck cover is looking unlikely right now, that's a concern.
2. Ceiling - Not sure he can match Darcy, Grundy, Gawn and possibly NicNat if 2 of them do push towards the 130 mark which is what Gawn and Grundy have done multiple times, Darcy did last year once he took the main ruck role and NicNat was close to after round 11 last year when he started playing >70% TOG instead of under.
Throw in the Ryder factor and there's concerns.
I do think ROB and Marshall probably have the best overall pictures in that group though. If Ryder can get to 115 and the super premiums stay in that range, he's a dream pick though.
I noticed this as a significant thing when watching as well and I like it a lot for him, I reckon an ideal result for him could be to let Stef take forward half ruck contests and he takes back half ruck contests while floating. Helps that Dogs do need an intercept marker and don't have a natural option in their group outside maybe Dale, who if he got it becomes very relevant.
English definitely interesting with the FWD tag meaning he doesn't have to do quite as much to work out.
The worry with English is of course the ruck share they seem to want.
His average with Sweet/Martin/Young as #1 ruck was 81 last year, and 96 as the #1 ruck. The latter would be a borderline premium level as a forward and be a reasonable pick overall, especially if he happened to provide ruck cover at some point.
I don't mind his bye, at least he doesn't share it with the other viable options, albeit later is better because you could bail at that point and get the extra premium score if he's not working.
I have two major worries:
1. Durability - His record is pretty ordinary at this point. Only full season was the shortened season. Given ruck cover is looking unlikely right now, that's a concern.
2. Ceiling - Not sure he can match Darcy, Grundy, Gawn and possibly NicNat if 2 of them do push towards the 130 mark which is what Gawn and Grundy have done multiple times, Darcy did last year once he took the main ruck role and NicNat was close to after round 11 last year when he started playing >70% TOG instead of under.
Throw in the Ryder factor and there's concerns.
I do think ROB and Marshall probably have the best overall pictures in that group though. If Ryder can get to 115 and the super premiums stay in that range, he's a dream pick though.
I noticed this as a significant thing when watching as well and I like it a lot for him, I reckon an ideal result for him could be to let Stef take forward half ruck contests and he takes back half ruck contests while floating. Helps that Dogs do need an intercept marker and don't have a natural option in their group outside maybe Dale, who if he got it becomes very relevant.
English definitely interesting with the FWD tag meaning he doesn't have to do quite as much to work out.
The worry with English is of course the ruck share they seem to want.
His average with Sweet/Martin/Young as #1 ruck was 81 last year, and 96 as the #1 ruck. The latter would be a borderline premium level as a forward and be a reasonable pick overall, especially if he happened to provide ruck cover at some point.
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On the Marshall durability question, I've seen this said a few times but he does not have any long term durability problems at all, the games missed in other seasons were because he wasn't playing at AFL level. In fact when he injured his foot he said it was the first injury he ever had in his career. There is a question over the foot and given the type of injury there is a significant risk of recurrence, but other than that he has no injury history to speak of and no injury history prior to Feb 2021.
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Marshall averaged 120 solo rucking in his last 12 games of 2019, I don't think his ceiling is too far away from the other 3.
I don't think Gawn can go back to his prime scoring with Jackson in the side and Darcy is yet to produce those really high scores for a whole season, he really hit an insane hot patch at the end of the year. I know Gawn broke out from nowhere and backed it up and Darcy could do the same but normally such a big break out is followed up with a cooling off season. I think it would be reasonable to say Grundy's ceiling is greater than his but not the other two and for me Grundy is essentially a lock and he's only competing with the other two. I do not think NicNat has a higher ceiling than him as that's not been shown and NN's turning 31
I don't think Gawn can go back to his prime scoring with Jackson in the side and Darcy is yet to produce those really high scores for a whole season, he really hit an insane hot patch at the end of the year. I know Gawn broke out from nowhere and backed it up and Darcy could do the same but normally such a big break out is followed up with a cooling off season. I think it would be reasonable to say Grundy's ceiling is greater than his but not the other two and for me Grundy is essentially a lock and he's only competing with the other two. I do not think NicNat has a higher ceiling than him as that's not been shown and NN's turning 31
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I feel some of these decisions are also being made and justified to accomodate structure changes to enable a Rowell or Berry to be included which is fine as long as we’re true to the reasoning. Sometimes I ask myself well why didn’t I look at him earlier if I’m so convinced player X can now do this and it’s usually trying to slot someone else in my team.
See for me it's to see if I can get a way to get 3 of the big 4 in (so that I can inevitably not pick the best one!), if I can get Sicily out that's an added bonus 
That and I just want a way to buy time on Gawn, I'm pretty happy with my feeling that Gawn averages 112-118 this year and it just feels like lower than that is as likely or more to happen than higher than that, last year he started amazingly before the emergence of Jackson but after Jackson started eating into his minutes he averaged 113 for the rest of the season. Basically I like Gawn but I'd rather pay 100k less.
Darcy is impossible to trust. Durability problems, injured to end last year, two separate injuries, including one that is genuinely scary, in the last month. I'd really like a solid 6 weeks and happily pay more if he's a genuine 125+ guy, I like the player but the injuries start to get overwhelming at some point.
And as much as I like NicNat, I just don't think I can do it
Having said that the English, Marshall, Witts, Draper, Jackson and Flynn options kind of terrify me
Gawn has been in my side since Darcy's achilles issues so probably going to need something special to change that at this point but I can't say I love the pick. I feel like I've got 3 guys in my side in Sicily, Dunkley and Gawn for the wrong reasons (will inevitably end up my only starting picks that don't fail!)
That and I just want a way to buy time on Gawn, I'm pretty happy with my feeling that Gawn averages 112-118 this year and it just feels like lower than that is as likely or more to happen than higher than that, last year he started amazingly before the emergence of Jackson but after Jackson started eating into his minutes he averaged 113 for the rest of the season. Basically I like Gawn but I'd rather pay 100k less.
Darcy is impossible to trust. Durability problems, injured to end last year, two separate injuries, including one that is genuinely scary, in the last month. I'd really like a solid 6 weeks and happily pay more if he's a genuine 125+ guy, I like the player but the injuries start to get overwhelming at some point.
And as much as I like NicNat, I just don't think I can do it
Having said that the English, Marshall, Witts, Draper, Jackson and Flynn options kind of terrify me
Gawn has been in my side since Darcy's achilles issues so probably going to need something special to change that at this point but I can't say I love the pick. I feel like I've got 3 guys in my side in Sicily, Dunkley and Gawn for the wrong reasons
(will inevitably end up my only starting picks that don't fail!)