Discussion 2022 AFL: Practice Matches & AAMI Community Series Discussion

[Ben's Beasts]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499700778080309251

View: https://twitter.com/AFLstatsmate/status/1499700778080309251?s=20&t=ib-1nq3v3m8NePl69SAHrw

 

[Ben's Beasts]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499700653849190406

View: https://twitter.com/AFLstatsmate/status/1499700653849190406?s=20&t=ib-1nq3v3m8NePl69SAHrw

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Hawthorn v Richmond at Devonport Oval, 1.10pm AEDT

HAWTHORN

B: B.Hardwick 15 S.Frost 8 D.Grainger-Barras 24
HB: C.Nash 11 J.Sicily 6 J.Scrimshaw 14
C: L.Shiels 26 C.Wingard 20 H.Morrison 1
HF: J.Worpel 5 J.Gunston 19 L.Breust 22
F: D.Moore 13 M.Lewis 2 B.McEvoy - C 7
Foll: N.Reeves 37 J.Newcombe 44 T.Phillips 21
I/C: F.Maginness 32 C.Macdonald 31 J.Koschitzke 23 T.Brockman 33 N.Long 27 J.Ward 25 M.Lynch 18 E.Jeka 39

Emerg: J.Callow 45 S.Butler 30 S.Mitchell 40 J.Saunders 43

Notable absentees: Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O'Meara, Jarman Impey, Will Day, Changkuoth Jiath, Kyle Hartigan

RICHMOND

B: D.Grimes 2 R.Tarrant 6 J.Gibcus 28
HB: J.Short 15 N.Broad 35 D.Rioli 17
C: J.Ross 5 T.Cotchin 9 K.McIntosh 33
HF: S.Bolton 29 L.Baker 7 S.Edwards 10
F: N.Balta 21 T.Lynch 19 J.Riewoldt 8
Foll: T.Nankervis - C 25 D.Prestia 3 D.Martin 4
I/C: H.Ralphsmith 45 I.Soldo 20 J.Aarts 16 J.Castagna 11 B.Nyuon 47 T.Brown 30 W.Martyn 36 M.Rioli 49

Emerg: B.Miller 46 S.Ryan 32 M.Pickett 50 M.Parker 37

Notable absentees: Nick Vlaustin, Kane Lambert, Jack Graham, Sydney Stack

Adelaide v Port Adelaide at Richmond Oval, 3.40pm ACST

ADELAIDE

B: L.Brown 16 J.Butts 41 N.Murray 28
HB: B.Smith 33 C.Jones 1 A.McPherson 36
C: L.Sholl 38 R.Laird 29 M.Hinge 20
HF: J.Rachele 8 B.Keays 2 N.McHenry 25
F: R.Thilthorpe 7 D.Fogarty 32 E.Himmelberg 34
Foll: R.O'Brien 43 R.Sloane - C 9 H.Schoenberg 26
I/C: L.Gollant 44 J.Soligo 14 M.Crouch 5 T.Doedee 39 L.Pedlar 10 S.Berry 21 B.Davis 40 K.Strachan 45

Emerg: J.Rowe 31 B.Cook 15 B.Frampton 22 W.Hamill 17

Notable absentees: Taylor Walker, Paul Seedsman, Jordan Dawson, Wayne Milera

PORT ADELAIDE

B: R.Burton 3 T.Clurey 17 A.Aliir 21
HB: D.Houston 5 T.Jonas - C 1 D.Byrne-Jones 33
C: R.Bonner 26 O.Wines 16 K.Amon 15
HF: Z.Butters 18 M.Georgiades 19 C.Rozee 20
F: J.Finlayson 11 T.Marshall 4 R.Gray 9
Foll: S.Lycett 29 W.Drew 28 T.Boak 10
I/C: S.Hayes 25 J.Mead 44 J.McEntee 41 J.Sinn 8 X.Duursma 7 T.McKenzie 12 L.Jones 34 S.Mayes 32

Emerg: S.Skinner 31 D.Visentini 38 M.Frederick 45 J.Pasini 48

Notable absentees: Sam Powell-Pepper, Charlie Dixon, Orazio Fantasia

Essendon v St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, 7.10pm AEDT

ESSENDON

B: J.Laverde 15 J.Stewart 17 T.Cutler 12
HB: N.Hind 19 J.Ridley 14 Z.Merrett 7
C: N.Cox 13 A.McGrath 1 D.Heppell - C 21
HF: W.Snelling 11 H.Jones 23 K.Baldwin 26
F: M.Guelfi 35 P.Wright 20 D.Smith 5
Foll: S.Draper 2 D.Parish 3 J.Caldwell 6
I/C: A.Perkins 16 M.Redman 27 K.Langford 4 B.Ham 33 N.Martin 47 B.Zerk-Thatcher 30 N.Bryan 24 B.Hobbs 8

Emerg: A.Waterman 45 S.Durham 22 D.Shiel 9 T.Wanganeen 43

Notable absentees: Jake Stringer, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Michael Hurley, Jake Kelly

ST KILDA

B: C.Wilkie 44 J.Battle 26 B.Paton 33
HB: D.McKenzie 36 D.Howard 20 J.Sinclair 35
C: H.Clark 11 J.Gresham 4 B.Hill 8
HF: D.Butler 16 T.Membrey 28 J.Higgins 22
F: M.King 12 J.Billings 15 J.Hayes 47
Foll: R.Marshall 19 J.Steele - C 9 S.Ross 6
I/C: J.Webster 29 R.Byrnes 13 M.Wood 32 B.Crouch 5 M.Windhager 17 N.Wanganeen-Milera 7 M.Owens 24 C.Sharman 43

Emerg: D.Joyce 39 B.Long 21 T.Campbell 38 D.Kent 25

Notable absentees: Zak Jones, Dan Hannebery, Paddy Ryder, Jarryn Geary

https://www.afl.com.au/news/712866/aami-teams-stars-missing-in-action-power-big-man-named

 

[Ironhawk]

My first reaction after seeing S. Mitchell as an Emergency:
Coach Sam Mitchell an Emergency, he could be useful if Covid hits the Hawks, OOPS, that's Seamus Mitchell

Seriously thou, Tom Mitchell not playing because, according to AFL.com.au, he is rested.
He's high on my list and this looks suspicious to me. Anybody got more info?

AAMI TEAMS: Stars missing in action, Power big man named (afl.com.au)

Think I saw elsewhere one of the coaches mentioned they were just taking no risks with JOM and Titch prior to Rd 1 who are pretty much locked in, it is also likely to give the other younger mids one last shot to make the team - there might be a spot available with Bramble getting injured I guess. Always good to get game time into the younger players in any case, even if it's just a pre-season game.

 

[Rowsus]

English is a very interesting one. Playing almost a midfield role with his link up work, but also great intercept mark positioning behind the ball. Looks fit and agile, and dare I say a little stronger. Seems like they’ve decided English’s midfield work is more valuable than what he can do forward, and Martin is solid enough forward so it’s better team balance. Have only noticed English in the forward line when he’s legit resting there, and definitely reckon he’s been the majority ruckman in the middle for the night. Very tempting!

As a Melbourne supporter, my opinion is, that Martin is not worth a cracker playing Fwd. Part of the reason Melbourne got rid of him. His good years at Brisbane were mainly Ruck, and playing link up in the middle of the ground, regularly gathering 20+ disps. If you are looking for Martin to play Fwd, as a ground to get English in the Ruck, I'd be very wary. If English does well in the Ruck, Martin might be lucky to play 10-12 games this season, which might inevitably lead to English playing more Fwd.

 

[Peter56]

 

[Bermi]

Think I saw elsewhere one of the coaches mentioned they were just taking no risks with JOM and Titch prior to Rd 1 who are pretty much locked in, it is also likely to give the other younger mids one last shot to make the team - there might be a spot available with Bramble getting injured I guess. Always good to get game time into the younger players in any case, even if it's just a pre-season game.

Thanks for that.
Are JOM and Mitchell that fragile that they need to avoid a preseason game? It's just that it doesn't feel right to me.
Might just drop Mitchell behind Miller (who is $40K more expensive).

 

[Rowsus]

I had him over Dunkley as a POD but Dunkley ownership at 53% last time I looked. Almost need to pick him. Right??.

Exactly the opposite reason to pick a player.
I never understand Coaches that pick a player, based on the fact they have a high ownership %.
If you don't have them in your team, the higher their ownership the better!!!

 

[MRYP]

In terms of player’s ownership percentage, my thoughts have evolved over time. My personal opinion is that getting a good start gives you the foundation for a good overall ranking. I’m OK to pick players with high ownership percentage at start of the season. However, I pick premium players with strong record (e.g Macrae) or an undervalued premium that is bouncing back from prior year injury but has completed full preseason training (e.g. Neale). If you own a POD, and they stink up in early games, you can easily fall behind the peloton pack. During upgrades around the byes and my final trades to complete my team with premiums, then I seek to understand players’ ownership percentages and I’m willing to target players scoring well with low percentage (e.g Touk Miller last year). My logic is you cannot make up further ground by selecting the same players that are in teams ranked above you. There are no right or wrong answers here, simply my perspectives.

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499717709663145985

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/HoneyballAFL/status/1499717709663145985

 

[Rowsus]

In terms of player’s ownership percentage, my thoughts have evolved over time. My personal opinion is that getting a good start gives you the foundation for a good overall ranking. I’m OK to pick players with high ownership percentage at start of the season. However, I pick premium players with strong record (e.g Macrae) or an undervalued premium that is bouncing back from prior year injury but has completed full preseason training (e.g. Neale). If you own a POD, and they stink up in early games, you can easily fall behind the peloton pack. During upgrades around the byes and my final trades to complete my team with premiums, then I seek to understand players’ ownership percentages and I’m willing to target players scoring well with low percentage (e.g Touk Miller last year). My logic is you cannot make up further ground by selecting the same players that are in teams ranked above you. There are no right or wrong answers here, simply my perspectives.

Good perspective.
My main point, probably poorly expressed, was that picking a player you had decided against, for whatever reason, based on them having a high ownership % is really poor reasoning.
You might as well wait until the last moment, and stock your team with all the highest owned players, if that's your approach.
Totally agree with your reasoning along the Touk Miller line, and it's something I also try to do, as the season grinds on.

 

[RIAL]

Reckon I have a slightly different take on the players so I will post my notes as well.

Brisbane:

Neale - Firm tick, nothing to see here, full-time midfield role.
McLuggage - Received enough midfield minutes to challenge top 8 and be a worthwhile midfield starter
Lyons - I don't expect any serious team to start Lyons
Rich - Tick, will have a monopoly over the kickouts. Production was average at best however, even if you scale it to his normal minutes. Won't fault anyone for starting a likely 105 x 22 player and top 6 defender at 570k (although I do prefer Stewart at the same price point)
Berry - Looked better than he scored, if he can score 80 against a top 3 midfielder in the comp, no reason to think he won't at least make 150k

Western Bulldogs:
Dunkley - Huge tick, perfect role, if he has no injuries from now until round 1, he will one of the first players picked
Bont - Too much role uncertainty, hard pass for me.
Treloar - was a 50/50 call between Treloar and Dusty for me, conscious of the return of Libba, but the performance tonight was strong enough to prefer Treloar over Dusty at this stage.
Macrae - Slight cross for me. Bont playing forward means Macrae will score at an even higher rate than before while he's in the guts. And he was a full-time midfielder apart from the first 10 minutes of the 1st quarter. But any time spent anywhere else out of the midfield is a role downgrade for Macrae, considering over the past couple of years his midfield minutes was absolutely maxed out. Macrae is still in contention but he's moving down the list.

 

[wogitalia]

Exactly the opposite reason to pick a player.
I never understand Coaches that pick a player, based on the fact they have a high ownership %.
If you don't have them in your team, the higher their ownership the better!!!

It's the quickest path to your season being over if you're wrong and we all get things wrong.

Obviously if you're right and everyone else is wrong, then it's the absolute best case scenario but the risk/reward is just not worth it, imo.

Problem with not picking Dunkley for example is you not only have to be right about Dunkley but also all the players you pick instead to actually gain while you only have to be wrong about Dunkley or any of your PODs really to be behind.

I'd say there are much better targets to take your risks with, especially this year where the F2-4 picks are looking like absolute crapshoots!

 

[pizza safety]

we getting any full lists of SC scores this preseason?

 

[Herbie66]

we getting any full lists of SC scores this preseason?

@THCLT created/opened a seperate thread with last night's , tonight's were posted in Post # 1289

 

[Tex]

Reckon I have a slightly different take on the players so I will post my notes as well.

Brisbane:

Neale - Firm tick, nothing to see here, full-time midfield role.
McLuggage - Received enough midfield minutes to challenge top 8 and be a worthwhile midfield starter
Lyons - I don't expect any serious team to start Lyons
Rich - Tick, will have a monopoly over the kickouts. Production was average at best however, even if you scale it to his normal minutes. Won't fault anyone for starting a likely 105 x 22 player and top 6 defender at 570k (although I do prefer Stewart at the same price point)
Berry - Looked better than he scored, if he can score 80 against a top 3 midfielder in the comp, no reason to think he won't at least make 150k

Western Bulldogs:
Dunkley - Huge tick, perfect role, if he has no injuries from now until round 1, he will one of the first players picked
Bont - Too much role uncertainty, hard pass for me.
Treloar - was a 50/50 call between Treloar and Dusty for me, conscious of the return of Libba, but the performance tonight was strong enough to prefer Treloar over Dusty at this stage.
Macrae - Slight cross for me. Bont playing forward means Macrae will score at an even higher rate than before while he's in the guts. And he was a full-time midfielder apart from the first 10 minutes of the 1st quarter. But any time spent anywhere else out of the midfield is a role downgrade for Macrae, considering over the past couple of years his midfield minutes was absolutely maxed out. Macrae is still in contention but he's moving down the list.

Macrae was and is my first picked.
Imo it's catch up Fantasy if you don't start him.

 

[pizza safety]

@THCLT created/opened a seperate thread with last night's , tonight's were posted in Post # 1289

Thanks heaps mate! cant believe I missed that it was just above me

 

[mike89]

Macrae was and is my first picked.
Imo it's catch up Fantasy if you don't start him.

I don't disagree but my logic for going against him is simply that I can't start all of him, Steele and Miller and I expect them all to score around the same. If Dunkley weren't a clear F1 I might want him just as a VC option but I'm happy to run with him in early Dogs games.

 

[McLovin]

The strongest case against starting Macrae I've been able to come up with is that last season was the first time he hasn't had a slight down period at any point. Rd 1-8 124.9, 9-16 130, 17-23 131.4 . That level of consistent elite scoring across an entire season is hard to maintain. Almost all the current and former elite SC mids still had relative peaks and troughs in their best years.

 

[wogitalia]

The strongest case against starting Macrae I've been able to come up with is that last season was the first time he hasn't had a slight down period at any point. Rd 1-8 124.9, 9-16 130, 17-23 131.4 . That level of consistent elite scoring across an entire season is hard to maintain. Almost all the current and former elite SC mids still had relative peaks and troughs in their best years.

Strongest case against him is that Ablett is the only player I know of who has 5 or more consecutive 120+ seasons.

After that you've got the ridiculous midfield depth that could throw his role around at times.

The other factor to consider is that Treloar and Dunkley both missed chunks of last year and the period that they did both play relatively fit was his worst period. While I'd say those two are such poor durability guys that that outcome seems more likely than not to happen, if it doesn't it could be significant.

But really, these are both pretty weak against arguments.

His for is the proven scoring, proven durability, elite captaincy option, favourable bye (really only Touk, Danger, Laird and Bont right now) and that's a heck of a lot stronger!

Hard to see him not averaging 115+ and being a premium though. I mean that wouldn't be an ideal result but that's still no trade needed.