Discussion 2022: Rate My Team

[NT.Thunder]

If you start Cripps at that price he needs to be a keeper.

I think he hasn't looked that good in a very long time and whilst I can see it working it's just too risky for me. I want a couple more games.

I'd rather wait and see two more games from him and correction trade to him if that's viable (maybe because Neale looks ordinary or another mid is injured). Even though it's unlikely that events unfold that way, if he's firing early that's the only way I'll be able to get on board.

Yeah that would be ideal but I'm not concerned around correction trades and especially now you can use 3 if needed. Early trades have always been part of my strategy in getting the best side come round 3. Ideally no trades but that's rarely the case. Whether that in or out, who knows.

What I do know from previous history is that it's more likely that a previous premium will return to being a premium again than a player that has never had premium scoring status becoming one. Cripps has had previous numbers and like last night, previous big numbers. A 160 is a big score that few are capable of so with egg on my face I'm open to starting him and owning the pain that comes with it.

 

[Shaunpro1]

If you start Cripps at that price he needs to be a keeper.

I think he hasn't looked that good in a very long time and whilst I can see it working it's just too risky for me. I want a couple more games.

I'd rather wait and see two more games from him and correction trade to him if that's viable (maybe because Neale looks ordinary or another mid is injured). Even though it's unlikely that events unfold that way, if he's firing early that's the only way I'll be able to get on board.

Higher his ownership gets the less the initial risk is, if hes in 30% of sides and breaks down early its really not the end of the world.

 

[pizza safety]

Higher his ownership gets the less the initial risk is, if hes in 30% of sides and breaks down early its really not the end of the world.

It will definitely soften the blow but he's risky from a pure scoring perspective.

 

[pizza safety]

Yeah that would be ideal but I'm not concerned around correction trades and especially now you can use 3 if needed. Early trades have always been part of my strategy in getting the best side come round 3. Ideally no trades but that's rarely the case. Whether that in or out, who knows.

What I do know from previous history is that it's more likely that a previous premium will return to being a premium again than a player that has never had premium scoring status becoming one. Cripps has had previous numbers and like last night, previous big numbers. A 160 is a big score that few are capable of so with egg on my face I'm open to starting him and owning the pain that comes with it.

I think the case that he can make it back to being great again is pretty big, and it has that feel about it where everyone got on him at what they thought was a cheap price a year early. However, I have seen him struggle with his body ever since mid way through 2019, ever since then he's been able to play one good game here or there but has never been able to do it consistently. If it was a year and a half where he didn't look right then I'd be more inclined to go for him (as I did last year) but two and a half years where he has looked exhausted and restricted in his movement is too long for me to jump on board off one game. It also made little to no sense that he could drop off by so much without there being something underlying everything, but it made less sense than normal because it wasn't like he was coming back from an ACL and then partying in the years that followed like Libba was in 2016 - 2017

 

[NT.Thunder]

I think the case that he can make it back to being great again is pretty big, and it has that feel about it where everyone got on him at what they thought was a cheap price a year early. However, I have seen him struggle with his body ever since mid way through 2019, ever since then he's been able to play one good game here or there but has never been able to do it consistently. If it was a year and a half where he didn't look right then I'd be more inclined to go for him (as I did last year) but two and a half years where he has looked exhausted and restricted in his movement is too long for me to jump on board off one game. It also made little to no sense that he could drop off by so much without there being something underlying everything, but it made less sense than normal because it wasn't like he was coming back from an ACL and then partying in the years that followed like Libba was in 2016 - 2017

He'll be one I think that will need to fit my structure and not a structure to fit him in.

 

[freowho]

I think the case that he can make it back to being great again is pretty big, and it has that feel about it where everyone got on him at what they thought was a cheap price a year early. However, I have seen him struggle with his body ever since mid way through 2019, ever since then he's been able to play one good game here or there but has never been able to do it consistently. If it was a year and a half where he didn't look right then I'd be more inclined to go for him (as I did last year) but two and a half years where he has looked exhausted and restricted in his movement is too long for me to jump on board off one game. It also made little to no sense that he could drop off by so much without there being something underlying everything, but it made less sense than normal because it wasn't like he was coming back from an ACL and then partying in the years that followed like Libba was in 2016 - 2017

I'd walk on hot coals for Vossy.

 

[pizza safety]

Jarrod Berry ownership to drop after this

 

[manyproblems]

If you start Cripps at that price he needs to be a keeper.

I think he hasn't looked that good in a very long time and whilst I can see it working it's just too risky for me. I want a couple more games.

I'd rather wait and see two more games from him and correction trade to him if that's viable (maybe because Neale looks ordinary or another mid is injured). Even though it's unlikely that events unfold that way, if he's firing early that's the only way I'll be able to get on board.

Last week my guess was Cripps to go 95-100. After yesterday I'd say 110. No more injections/fractured back like last year. His TOG has dropped from ~89 to ~83 so the 120 are most likely gone.

Its very hard to read because of how dreadful in the 2021 preseason game. Fumbly, poor reaction time, caught holding the ball non stop and poor work rate. This year its a complete 180, with the only knock being his disposal at times was off and he dropped away a bit in the 4th.

The extra trades might give us the luxury to upgrade mid pricers like Sicily and Cripps later in the season if necessary, as I expect them to make money and hold it down for us for as long as required. A bit like what happens in AFL fantasy. In theory it could work, in practice it might not as its the first time having these 35 trades. FWIW the winner last year started and traded out taranto around the byes for a small profit, would have been 70-100k or so.

Jumping on Cripps early is going to be very difficult, the chances these 650k mids/Neale flop would be incredibly low.

 

[pizza safety]

Last week my guess was Cripps to go 95-100. After yesterday I'd say 110. No more injections/fractured back like last year. His TOG has dropped from ~89 to ~83 so the 120 are most likely gone.

Its very hard to read because of how dreadful in the 2021 preseason game. Fumbly, poor reaction time, caught holding the ball non stop and poor work rate. This year its a complete 180, with the only knock being his disposal at times was off and he dropped away a bit in the 4th.

The extra trades might give us the luxury to upgrade mid pricers like Sicily and Cripps later in the season if necessary, as I expect them to make money and hold it down for us for as long as required. A bit like what happens in AFL fantasy. In theory it could work, in practice it might not as its the first time having these 35 trades. FWIW the winner last year started and traded out taranto around the byes for a small profit, would have been 70-100k or so.

Jumping on Cripps early is going to be very difficult, the chances these 650k mids/Neale flop would be incredibly low.

I agree with everything you've said but it simply feels too risky for me. I think he will average 110 this year but he has a low floor.

I can't completely ignore the Cripps I've seen the past two seasons, he could be changed but the chance he's not is too great for me. I've also started him from 2018-2021 and the past two seasons i have been burned and it sort of feels like I'm just walking into the same trap again.

Yeah like you said it's gonna be pretty unlikely that I can jump on him, i'd basically be getting rid of a gun for the sake of cash or doing it if there's an injury, both totally unlikely, so I won't be getting on the train. It's also true that with my current structure that Cripps doesn't give me as much benefit as he would some others.

 

[wogitalia]

I feel much better in the position of trying to talk myself out of Cripps than the last two years where I talked myself into it

 

[toxic]

Kiddy coleman gone

Defence now

D1 Whits
Sic
Hewett
5 rookies

Scary

 

[Creeker]

High risk, high reward.
Team could either get off to a solid start, or could be season over by round 4.


J Ridley, J Short, L Whitfield (DM), G Hewitt (DM), M Hinge, J Sinn (DM). W Kelly (DF), S De Koning (DF).

J Macrae, J Dunkley (MF), L Neale, P Cripps, P Lipinski, M Rowell, J Berry, N Daicos. N O'Driscoll (MD, E Hollands (MF), C MacDonald.

M Gawn, B Grundy. H Dixon (RF)

A Treloar (FM), I Heeney, Z Butters, S Coniglio (FM), M McGovern, P McCartin (FD) N Martin, J Hayes (RF).


My X versus Y scenario is A Treloar Versus C Serong. Will keep a close eye on the Freo game.
5.2k remaining.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I've had Touk at M3 but can split him into Cripps/Lipinski or Rowell.

So it would be Touk+mid rook vs Cripps/Lip or Rowell. But if Cripps is not a keeper then that means I have 11 keepers. I really want to do it given extra trades! Especially if the 350k guys look even better and the base 123k mid rookies keep looking dire.

If you start Cripps at that price he needs to be a keeper.

I think he hasn't looked that good in a very long time and whilst I can see it working it's just too risky for me. I want a couple more games.

I'd rather wait and see two more games from him and correction trade to him if that's viable (maybe because Neale looks ordinary or another mid is injured). Even though it's unlikely that events unfold that way, if he's firing early that's the only way I'll be able to get on board.

Yeah that would be ideal but I'm not concerned around correction trades and especially now you can use 3 if needed. Early trades have always been part of my strategy in getting the best side come round 3. Ideally no trades but that's rarely the case. Whether that in or out, who knows.

What I do know from previous history is that it's more likely that a previous premium will return to being a premium again than a player that has never had premium scoring status becoming one. Cripps has had previous numbers and like last night, previous big numbers. A 160 is a big score that few are capable of so with egg on my face I'm open to starting him and owning the pain that comes with it.

I feel much better in the position of trying to talk myself out of Cripps than the last two years where I talked myself into it

Some good discussions around Cripps.

Manyproblems - not sure I would be dropping Touk at M3 for Cripps. For me 3 premiums in mids is the minimum. Challenge is I cannot get it to 4 without weakening the rookie choices. Hesitant with the Will Kelly types this year.

The question is how many 400k-500k players do you go. Plenty of choices with breakouts Butters, Heeney, Thomas, less so Bailey then there is the fallen premiums in Sicily and Whitfield.

M4 premium is tough as a Touk level player is effectively a Stewart + 200k 2/3 year player or a Touk + Will Kelly. Think the former wins out as the 200k player is onfield.

This leaves me is your M4 Cripps/Rowell level player and you take a Sicily up plus strengthen a rookie player. You could not have a Cripps and potentially lift someone to a Heeney/Thomas/Sicily level, just a reasonable chance some of these players dont get the CBA time needed or competition for their roles. Cripps hurdle is higher as a mid, yet if Taranto didn't go forward for a few games he was an ok M8. I had $14m in the kitty/value last year and traded Taranto down at the end, not up, budget was stretched.

I can see a side where you push it this year with a side having plenty of 450k players, either will win it or blow up I expect, as it will reduce reliance on rookies who are thin on the ground at the 123k which will make us money.

Cripps has entered my side, avoided him last year. Walsh a factor now that if Cripps is back to 2019 form, maybe doesn't get tagged as much.

 

[Herbie66]

Kiddy coleman gone

Defence now

D1 Whits
Sic
Hewett
5 rookies

Scary

5 defender rookies !!!

I have Hinge , McCartin & Sinn and not completely confident we get any of them.

Just curious which 5 you are running with ?

Kiddy has destroyed my planned structure , not sure whether to just replace him with a Bowey , Campbell , Milera , Richards type or completely revamp.

Could go Whitfield , Sicily & Hewett and just sit and wait.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Some good discussions around Cripps.

Manyproblems - not sure I would be dropping Touk at M3 for Cripps. For me 3 premiums in mids is the minimum. Challenge is I cannot get it to 4 without weakening the rookie choices. Hesitant with the Will Kelly types this year.

Ouch - with Kiddy gone my structure curently has Neale at M2

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Ouch - with Kiddy gone my structure curently has Neale at M2

I did drop a premium at M4 to upgrade defence. The reason I say 3 mids, as I have Berry at 5 is the rookies in the mids are not looking as deep as we thought.

However, if you have dropped a mid then the extra 100k should in theory allow you to bring in a $200k 3rd player, upgrade Kiddy and still have money left over to strengthen depth of team.

 

[NT.Thunder]

I did drop a premium at M4 to upgrade defence. The reason I say 3 mids, as I have Berry at 5 is the rookies in the mids are not looking as deep as we thought.

However, if you have dropped a mid then the extra 100k should in theory allow you to bring in a $200k 3rd player, upgrade Kiddy and still have money left over to strengthen depth of team.

This allows Sicily at R4 and Butters F4 also enabling the higher priced rookies which I think will be needed both forward and back

It also gives me 12 keepers not including Cripps, Rowell and Cogs. Again, will depend on playing rookies but at his stage outside of Hing, McCartin and Sinn back and Rachele forward, rookies I'd be willing to start on the ground look light.

 

[Juzzo]

This allows Sicily at R4 and Butters F4 also enabling the higher priced rookies which I think will be needed both forward and back

It also gives me 12 keepers not including Cripps, Rowell and Cogs. Again, will depend on playing rookies but at his stage outside of Hing, McCartin and Sinn back and Rachele forward, rookies I'd be willing to start on the ground look light.

View attachment 40212

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9xbWuo5dVs

 

[NT.Thunder]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9xbWuo5dVs

@Juzzo are you saying it's too risky having too many speculative picks. Agh yes, recalibrate

 

[Juzzo]

@Juzzo are you saying it's too risky having too many speculative picks. Agh yes, recalibrate

It may turn out fine with those specco picks, but I try to pull myself back when adding too many, because I'm not a hugely talented SC, and starting a relatively GnR approach I can't go too far wrong.