Position 2022: Defender Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
- Start date
Hey guys
Those looking at starting hewett
Are you looking to offload him or view him as a keeper?
At the moment I would like to start Sicily over hewett as I feel he’s a better chance at being a keeper. But also starting Sicily I feel I’ll miss out on 1 of the big guns in Stewart/Lloyd/hall who I feel will go 10 points above sic. Sicily I can see being an in between guy. Someone good enough to keep but being an awkward d6 around the 90 mark.
I’m confident Daicos goes 85+ and I wouldnt mind offloading hewett as a stepping stone to one of the big premo mids I miss out on when Daicos gains his dpp. I don’t think hewett will go much more then 85 on the year and it gives me a chance to get the best 3 defenders around short, Ridley and Whitfield who I’m starting. Of course hewett could outdo my expectations and become a keeper but interested to hear your thoughts.
Is everyone expecting a 95+ average for hewett or viewing him as a stepping stone?
Those looking at starting hewett
Are you looking to offload him or view him as a keeper?
At the moment I would like to start Sicily over hewett as I feel he’s a better chance at being a keeper. But also starting Sicily I feel I’ll miss out on 1 of the big guns in Stewart/Lloyd/hall who I feel will go 10 points above sic. Sicily I can see being an in between guy. Someone good enough to keep but being an awkward d6 around the 90 mark.
I’m confident Daicos goes 85+ and I wouldnt mind offloading hewett as a stepping stone to one of the big premo mids I miss out on when Daicos gains his dpp. I don’t think hewett will go much more then 85 on the year and it gives me a chance to get the best 3 defenders around short, Ridley and Whitfield who I’m starting. Of course hewett could outdo my expectations and become a keeper but interested to hear your thoughts.
Is everyone expecting a 95+ average for hewett or viewing him as a stepping stone?
95 is an achievable average for Hewett however personally I don't view him as a must have. I think at $400k he needs to be viewed as a keeper or at least one you keep well into the season and past the byes, he has the first bye as well so he's no good for trading around the bye. Others are pretty bullish on him though but I personally don't see him hurting non owners (Rowell even as a midfielder I feel at his price could hurt non owners), just my thoughts and I'm still open to selecting him depending on rookie options (although it'll be tough as he's an early game).
He's priced at 73 so you'd think that 95 is around the mark that you need for him to make enough cash to be a viable stepping stone/starting pick. Of course that get's him into D6 calculations, but having someone who'll just require 2 trades to get to an uber premo mid will be handy as it's a pretty quick upgrade. I genuinely think that Daicos could be that D6 in any event.
He's a tricky one. I think the reason people aren't picking him is he's a bit older and has less history of premium scoring. He just had his career-best year, by a fair way, at 31. He's a great player, and no real reason he can't repeat 2021. Just feels less certain given he's only gone 100+ that one time. Compared to say Lloyd at only 4k more, who's three years younger and has gone 100+ the last four years, including a 120+ year. Lloyd, Ryan, Ridley, Short, etc. seem to have less downside and just as much upside to me, given age, history, demonstrated scoring potential, etc.
My thinking exactly
This way hewett becomes Steele who hopefully drops a few grand
Hewett goes up a few grand averaging 90
Daicos I can see averaging 90 so he takes hewetts spot and I get a 30 point upgrade to a super premo mid after round 6. Daicos can stick around I see him averaging similar to Sicily who I would be by passing to get hewett.
Think it’s a viable strategy
This way hewett becomes Steele who hopefully drops a few grand
Hewett goes up a few grand averaging 90
Daicos I can see averaging 90 so he takes hewetts spot and I get a 30 point upgrade to a super premo mid after round 6. Daicos can stick around I see him averaging similar to Sicily who I would be by passing to get hewett.
Think it’s a viable strategy
The way I've structured my team means that I'll have to bring in 6 x 650k+ players and because of the dearth of rookies I've had to load up on MP's to help generate the needed cash (remembering that 17 of the 32 players that made 150k+ last year were MP's) This has led to only 4 rookie priced players on field (if I include Xerri) consequently I have to have a really solid bench (read expensive) to facilitate that much needed cash generation which I think will have the added bonus of a bit of security with Covid.
My MP/stepping stones:
Hewett
Rioli
Rowell
Berry
Brodie
Witts
McGovern
+3 x 200k+ rookies
My MP/stepping stones:
Hewett
Rioli
Rowell
Berry
Brodie
Witts
McGovern
+3 x 200k+ rookies
He needs to be a keeper at that price. There's no alternative.
I hate the term stepping stone because it implies that a failed pick is actually progressing. If you're making a pick that makes less cash AND contributes less points, that's not a good pick.
If Sicily isn't a keeper then he's cost you cash, trades and points.
Sicily works against a rookie if he becomes a keeper and you save those trades.
To be fair, I think 95+ would be a keeper number for him if he plays 22, you're picking your starting D6 and limiting upgrade targets but you've gained two trades so that's a fair payoff. Unless I'm wildly wrong on where I think defender premium scoring will be and it's much higher.
The problem is if he goes 90 and isn't a premium.
You've spent effectively 82 points to get 90 (he's priced at 82, not 73 btw). A really poor rookie is going to out produce that, so if you start a 123k rookie averaging 40, you're already well ahead on cash generation AND on field points because you still get the other ~60 points to spend somewhere else in your team.
Everyone sees 90 points and goes "that's great", but 70 from a 150k rookie is better than 90 from a 450k pick assuming that you've got somewhere to spend that 300k. Now that 450k pick suddenly becomes a lot better if you save two trades from it as a 450k pick producing 95 is better than a 545k pick producing 100 because in that scenario, you're the one with the extra 17 points somewhere else.
Yes there is some diminishing returns on spending cash elsewhere, Marshall to Gawn might only produce 10 of the 22 point gap but the two trades again factors in on that comparison and is why we target those "no value" premium picks with the value being the trades saved and it's also why when those picks fail they end your season so rapidly!
I hate the term stepping stone because it implies that a failed pick is actually progressing. If you're making a pick that makes less cash AND contributes less points, that's not a good pick.
If Sicily isn't a keeper then he's cost you cash, trades and points.
Sicily works against a rookie if he becomes a keeper and you save those trades.
To be fair, I think 95+ would be a keeper number for him if he plays 22, you're picking your starting D6 and limiting upgrade targets but you've gained two trades so that's a fair payoff. Unless I'm wildly wrong on where I think defender premium scoring will be and it's much higher.
The problem is if he goes 90 and isn't a premium.
You've spent effectively 82 points to get 90 (he's priced at 82, not 73 btw). A really poor rookie is going to out produce that, so if you start a 123k rookie averaging 40, you're already well ahead on cash generation AND on field points because you still get the other ~60 points to spend somewhere else in your team.
Everyone sees 90 points and goes "that's great", but 70 from a 150k rookie is better than 90 from a 450k pick assuming that you've got somewhere to spend that 300k. Now that 450k pick suddenly becomes a lot better if you save two trades from it as a 450k pick producing 95 is better than a 545k pick producing 100 because in that scenario, you're the one with the extra 17 points somewhere else.
Yes there is some diminishing returns on spending cash elsewhere, Marshall to Gawn might only produce 10 of the 22 point gap but the two trades again factors in on that comparison and is why we target those "no value" premium picks with the value being the trades saved and it's also why when those picks fail they end your season so rapidly!