Position 2022: Forward Discussion

Joined
15 Feb 2021
Messages
1,307
Likes
5,403
AFL Club
Geelong
Agree with the others, that's a great ruck run. NicNat will take hitouts but he's exploitable forward and you only ruck against him half the game and their 2nd rucks are terribad.

The other guys are all on the easier end of the spectrum. Plus it's his ground level stuff that allows him to score as he follows up well.

2 of the strongest and 3 of the weakest midfields isn't a bad result either.

Plus, realisticaly if Xerri is playing #1 ruck, you're going to want to hold him longer than most rookies, he should be one of the strongest scoring and he has the best bye and will get DPP to offer cover to rucks although unfortunately not in the byes where he shares it with Gawn, Grundy and Darcy!

Their team sheet is going to be interesting but the talk from Noble definitely seems to suggest Xerri is the #1 ruck and Goldy forward is what they want.
Where does CCJ fit if he is available though?
 
Joined
25 Jul 2012
Messages
47,728
Likes
107,809
AFL Club
Collingwood
For those considering starting Dixon , last season :-

Darling 22
Allen 21
Kennedy 18
Waterman 14
Williams 6

Do we get enough games out of Dixon (if named) before Allen & Darling return.

Might get 1-2 price rises out of him , 2-3 of those on our starting benches and cash generation becomes a serious issue
 
Joined
8 Jan 2020
Messages
6,262
Likes
26,153
AFL Club
Geelong
For those considering starting Dixon , last season :-

Darling 22
Allen 21
Kennedy 18
Waterman 14
Williams 6

Do we get enough games out of Dixon (if named) before Allen & Darling return.

Might get 1-2 price rises out of him , 2-3 of those on our starting benches and cash generation becomes a serious issue
Feels to me like we wont get enough price rises, but is there really anyone else that would that we could pick in that position? Baldwin just gets dropped for Jones, Martin might not get picked at all and if he does is always playing for his spot, just feels like you cant win at F8 this year.
 
Joined
6 Jun 2013
Messages
4,211
Likes
14,058
Lot of chat about Xerri from North Melbourne. He’s getting ruck time and played well in preseason games. However, I looked at North’s draw: Rd1. A v Hawks Rd2. H v WCE (Nic Nat) Rd3. A v BRIS (The Big O) Rd4. A v SYD (Hickey) Rd5. H v WBD (English & Martin)
That early draw does not give me confidence since with exception of Hawks, the rucks plus defence from other teams are strong…
Check his contested possessions

Gets a bit of the pill
 
Joined
25 Jul 2012
Messages
47,728
Likes
107,809
AFL Club
Collingwood
Feels to me like we wont get enough price rises, but is there really anyone else that would that we could pick in that position? Baldwin just gets dropped for Jones, Martin might not get picked at all and if he does is always playing for his spot, just feels like you cant win at F8 this year.
Durdin + ?

Baldwin as you mentioned

J Hayes & Dixon F/R link at R3 & F8 both might not play enough games to make $$$

Does SDK play ? link with McCartin

McCartin on the F bench and hope we get enough of NWM , Kemp , Sinn for D7 & D8.

Maginness probably outside of Best 22
 
Joined
18 Jul 2016
Messages
3,770
Likes
26,258
AFL Club
Sydney
Where does CCJ fit if he is available though?
As the 2nd tall forward?

I'm not actually sure why people think this is so unlikely. The majority of teams run 3KPF and a ruckman. While I personally don't rate CCJ very highly at all and even more lowly as a ruckman where he's been embarrassing in the preseason, he still fits perfectly well as the 2nd KPF with Goldy as 3rd/2nd ruck. Same setup that Melbourne runs with McDonald, Brown, Jackson and Gawn for example.
 
Joined
29 Feb 2020
Messages
12
Likes
52
AFL Club
Collingwood
Thoughts on running a
Dunks, cogs, McGovern, Brodie, xerri, Rachelle with hayes and martin/Durdin forward line?

love the potential value in butters, treloar, Heeney, dusty but also love the team it gives me upfield with the cogs forward 2 setup with the hope of the next 3 averaging 75+ and making 150k each
 
Joined
8 Jan 2020
Messages
6,262
Likes
26,153
AFL Club
Geelong
Thoughts on running a
Dunks, cogs, McGovern, Brodie, xerri, Rachelle with hayes and martin/Durdin forward line?

love the potential value in butters, treloar, Heeney, dusty but also love the team it gives me upfield with the cogs forward 2 setup with the hope of the next 3 averaging 75+ and making 150k each
I dont hate it but Butters absolutely dominating would worry me massively, just can't afford to miss those blokes at 440k if they stay fit.
 
Joined
29 Feb 2020
Messages
12
Likes
52
AFL Club
Collingwood
I dont hate it but Butters absolutely dominating would worry me massively, just can't afford to miss those blokes at 440k if they stay fit.
I defiantly think butters break out is on the cards but how much are you predicting he will average?
looked great in preseason against 2 bottom 4 teams the mid minutes are defiantly there but The first practice game was 5th mid behind boak drew wines Amon

And than In the 2nd game he was the 4th mid behind wines boak drew

How much do you trust a skinny 75 kilo 21 year old over the first 5 rounds with games against lions dees and Carlton who have some big body mids?

I feel like he will defiantly have some massive games leveled out with some 60s and go about 95-100 which is great for his price but not a must have
I could be looking at this completely wrong though. Just find it a risk missing out on some proven guys for a guy who is not proven with 8 100s in a 48 game career and has missed 15 games in last 2 seasons through injury Aswell.

(Not saying I am right at all just my thoughts on butters, think his a star in the making just have doubts over him myself at the moments)
 
Joined
24 Feb 2015
Messages
6,697
Likes
30,160
AFL Club
Sydney
I defiantly think butters break out is on the cards but how much are you predicting he will average?
looked great in preseason against 2 bottom 4 teams the mid minutes are defiantly there but The first practice game was 5th mid behind boak drew wines Amon

And than In the 2nd game he was the 4th mid behind wines boak drew

How much do you trust a skinny 75 kilo 21 year old over the first 5 rounds with games against lions dees and Carlton who have some big body mids?

I feel like he will defiantly have some massive games leveled out with some 60s and go about 95-100 which is great for his price but not a must have
I could be looking at this completely wrong though. Just find it a risk missing out on some proven guys for a guy who is not proven with 8 100s in a 48 game career and has missed 15 games in last 2 seasons through injury Aswell.

(Not saying I am right at all just my thoughts on butters, think his a star in the making just have doubts over him myself at the moments)
This worries me, think about it most days and it's hard to go past.

Has talent, has the drive but does he have the body to hold a 100 average for the season.

Confident he'll come out early and score well but footy does catch up after half a dozen rounds and my gut says that'll hold him back - but hey, everyone has him and we have extra trades
 
Joined
29 Feb 2020
Messages
12
Likes
52
AFL Club
Collingwood
This worries me, think about it most days and it's hard to go past.

Has talent, has the drive but does he have the body to hold a 100 average for the season.

Confident he'll come out early and score well but footy does catch up after half a dozen rounds and my gut says that'll hold him back - but hey, everyone has him and we have extra trades
defiantly agree
I honestly feel more nervous about leaving out treloar, I know the recent injury history
But this is the first full preseason with out any hiccups since 2019
Over the 2 preseason games he is playing the role he played in the grand final more inside mid where he scored 122 and the role he played at the pies where he averaged 109+ 4 out of 5 seasons
he is the one I have a few times sacrificed Gawn to Witts to bring him in but that’s obviously very risky injury wise
 
Joined
27 Jan 2014
Messages
6,769
Likes
14,766
AFL Club
Fremantle
defiantly agree
I honestly feel more nervous about leaving out treloar, I know the recent injury history
But this is the first full preseason with out any hiccups since 2019
Over the 2 preseason games he is playing the role he played in the grand final more inside mid where he scored 122 and the role he played at the pies where he averaged 109+ 4 out of 5 seasons
he is the one I have a few times sacrificed Gawn to Witts to bring him in but that’s obviously very risky injury wise
Treloar needed scans after the preseason game. I think the risk is high.
 
Joined
8 Jan 2020
Messages
6,262
Likes
26,153
AFL Club
Geelong
defiantly agree
I honestly feel more nervous about leaving out treloar, I know the recent injury history
But this is the first full preseason with out any hiccups since 2019
Over the 2 preseason games he is playing the role he played in the grand final more inside mid where he scored 122 and the role he played at the pies where he averaged 109+ 4 out of 5 seasons
he is the one I have a few times sacrificed Gawn to Witts to bring him in but that’s obviously very risky injury wise
I'd argue Treloar's improvement over the pre season is because they've put Libba and Bont in cotton wool but if you think that role is sustainable and trust his body to be able to do it sufficiently for a 22 game season by all means pick him at the price, I'd much rather take the chance on a 21 year old who has already shown a bucketload of talent though but that's just my opinion, he averaged 87 as a pretty raw 19 year old scoring potential isn't a great concern of mine, he gets injured you're in the same position as 40% of sides so that aspect isnt a big deal either.
 
Last edited:
Joined
18 Jul 2016
Messages
3,770
Likes
26,258
AFL Club
Sydney
defiantly agree
I honestly feel more nervous about leaving out treloar, I know the recent injury history
But this is the first full preseason with out any hiccups since 2019
Over the 2 preseason games he is playing the role he played in the grand final more inside mid where he scored 122 and the role he played at the pies where he averaged 109+ 4 out of 5 seasons
he is the one I have a few times sacrificed Gawn to Witts to bring him in but that’s obviously very risky injury wise
If Treloar averages 109 you can get him for ~60k more inside round 10, given the questions on the role and his durability, I'd pay that premium to be sure.

It's 100k if Butters does it but, perhaps more importantly, 42% of teams have Butters which given only 49% of teams have Neale indicates that roughly 90% of teams that actually matter have Butters right now. That's a very significant fade on a guy who really only seems not likely to do 100 if he gets hurt and definitely has the profile to go 110+.
 
Joined
25 Jul 2012
Messages
47,728
Likes
107,809
AFL Club
Collingwood
Might just start Curnow & Xerri on the bench and see if anything more viable appears after 2 Rounds.

Dunkley * , Heeney , Butters , Coniglio * , McGovern , Brodie * / Curnow , Xerri

Like em all , thought about "hiding" Cogs & Brodie in the mids but think I will start both Cripps & Rowell with Macrae , Neale , Berry & the 3 Musketeers.

Leaves rookie at D5 & D6 which I don't like but nearly at the stage where I can't look at my team much more , just start the bloody season already.
Going back to my "exciting 8" forward line
 
Joined
30 Jan 2013
Messages
1,376
Likes
5,070
If Treloar averages 109 you can get him for ~60k more inside round 10, given the questions on the role and his durability, I'd pay that premium to be sure.

It's 100k if Butters does it but, perhaps more importantly, 42% of teams have Butters which given only 49% of teams have Neale indicates that roughly 90% of teams that actually matter have Butters right now. That's a very significant fade on a guy who really only seems not likely to do 100 if he gets hurt and definitely has the profile to go 110+.
Hmmm and just like that I've got a lot more doubts about going Treloar over Butters. :(
 
Joined
27 Feb 2022
Messages
68
Likes
364
AFL Club
Richmond
I’ve gone back and watched the North v Sydney game for the first time. Agree that Xerri won his share of contested possessions and held his own in the ruck, even against Hickey. Playing ruck time should hopefully translate into some regular points and hopefully he’ll obtain dual position status come round 6. I’m glad I initially posted and appreciate the feedback from other posters!
 
Joined
3 Feb 2021
Messages
2,410
Likes
13,067
AFL Club
Essendon
Thoughts on running a
Dunks, cogs, McGovern, Brodie, xerri, Rachelle with hayes and martin/Durdin forward line?

love the potential value in butters, treloar, Heeney, dusty but also love the team it gives me upfield with the cogs forward 2 setup with the hope of the next 3 averaging 75+ and making 150k each
I’ve tinkered with something similar. Basically means you can play a ”safe” MID structure (no speculative rookies) and pretty much have no rookies on the ground in DEF. It certainly has merit. Just means you’re punting on Butters, Heeney, Treloar, Martin etc all staying at their priced average or at least not going bunta. It’s a big gamble against the majority but could pay off. Looking at it another way - ask yourself who’s more likely to jump significantly - the popular underpriced FWDs (Burtters, Heaney, Treloar, Martin) or the underpriced DEFs (Hewitt, Sicily, Whitfield and maybe Daniel although he’s borderline)? If you’re willing to bet on the latter, then that structure is the way to go.
 
Joined
22 Feb 2013
Messages
9,668
Likes
20,502
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I’ve tinkered with something similar. Basically means you can play a ”safe” MID structure (no speculative rookies) and pretty much have no rookies on the ground in DEF. It certainly has merit. Just means you’re punting on Butters, Heeney, Treloar, Martin etc all staying at their priced average or at least not going bunta. It’s a big gamble against the majority but could pay off. Looking at it another way - ask yourself who’s more likely to jump significantly - the popular underpriced FWDs (Burtters, Heaney, Treloar, Martin) or the underpriced DEFs (Hewitt, Sicily, Whitfield and maybe Daniel although he’s borderline)? If you’re willing to bet on the latter, then that structure is the way to go.
I ditched Rowell and Cripps, swung Dunks into the mids and have Butters F1. One rookie on field in the backs (do have Hewett), Gawndy, Ward at M8.

Feels...nice. :sneaky:
 
Top