Position 2022: Defender Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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To be honest it's just all over the shop and given his role last year I'm not even sure it's overly relevant for a lot of his scores.
Crisp might have the noisiest data set I've ever seen as far as trying to work out why he scores well and why he doesn't
Crisp might have the noisiest data set I've ever seen as far as trying to work out why he scores well and why he doesn't
Lots love him though so hopefully it works out for everyone picking him.
Might take half a season before our brain dead defenders realise they just have to give the ball to Daicos & Pendles instead of trying to kick it themselves.
As a lifelong Richmond fan, I can also vouch for Soldo also would be stunned if he doesn't play round 1. When he was fit before he was shoved by Hawkins, many supporters were of the opinion Soldo had overtaken Nank as the first ruck. Is highly valued/important at the club and hugely underrated outside of it. Balta will start forward. The club will be a much taller 22 than what we are used to
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Taranto was a borderline keeper though, I think people really miss how much the value aspect does shift that line. Averaged 102 until the move forward, at which point you'd be looping him with Bramble anyway and have taken Bramble on two of the putrid scores for an extra 80 odd points, which puts his average back the 102 anyway for the full season. So effective average was 102 for a switched on coach, worst case is 97 average for absentee ownership or a luxury trade come the last few rounds. Priced where he was that's about 113 worth of value in the team which is absolutely keeper level.
The issue with the above is it really only applies to a couple of players, you can only be missing so much of the premium scoring given the finite on-field spots but most winning sides I can think of will have had multiple value picks in them, be they trade targets or starting picks.
Agree entirely that the skill of spending the money is not easy and that the returns can definitely be diminishing. This year though I think there's an obvious spend on the premium rookies.
I genuinely think that Hewett at 90 and Sicily at 95 would be, at worst, luxury upgrades but realistically that's keeper territory unless the back landscape shifts significantly. That's 5/10 points a week on a Short as a starting pick but you should be generating 25 (Hewett) points a week elsewhere with the cash, and this year I dare say it's going into premium rookies so you can actually generate some cash!
Basically, those guys need to be picked as keepers barring there genuinely being no rookies (seems possible for the first time ever!) but what you deem a keeper should also be adjusted for them.
If I find said defender I'm keeping him to myself. I can't even find 2 150k defenders I think will play
The issue with the above is it really only applies to a couple of players, you can only be missing so much of the premium scoring given the finite on-field spots but most winning sides I can think of will have had multiple value picks in them, be they trade targets or starting picks.
Agree entirely that the skill of spending the money is not easy and that the returns can definitely be diminishing. This year though I think there's an obvious spend on the premium rookies.
I genuinely think that Hewett at 90 and Sicily at 95 would be, at worst, luxury upgrades but realistically that's keeper territory unless the back landscape shifts significantly. That's 5/10 points a week on a Short as a starting pick but you should be generating 25 (Hewett) points a week elsewhere with the cash, and this year I dare say it's going into premium rookies so you can actually generate some cash!
Basically, those guys need to be picked as keepers barring there genuinely being no rookies (seems possible for the first time ever!) but what you deem a keeper should also be adjusted for them.
If I find said defender I'm keeping him to myself. I can't even find 2 150k defenders I think will play
Hewett could end up being the same, but as a defender the gap between Hewett and D6 shouldn't be as bad as late season Taranto and M8. I tend to agree with you though, you pick Hewett as a keeper and if you have the luxury trade at, or just after the byes you upgrade him if needed. Plans to upgrade Hewett to a super premo in R6-7 are unrealistic IMO as every team will have much bigger issues than a 90ish average D6.
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I'm getting really tempted to start with Hall. A hamstring niggle so close to the start of the season at his age isn't great, but he only missed a few weeks of training and apparently didn't even ice the injury when it happened so it can't have been that bad. If he scores like last year then he's far and away the best defender pick. At 2% ownership you will either be rewarded handsomely or have a headache no one else does.
The key question here seems to be how many "value" (real or imagined) defenders in the Hewett to Whitfield range (399-502k) to take. I've reluctantly got Sicily at D4 only because I can't find the cash for Short, some sides have all three of those players.
Whitfield's ceiling is a known factor, I think GWS have enough options to keep him below that this season, and there's always a good chance he misses enough games to make his season average irrelevant. At the other end of the spectrum Hewett's very durable but his versatility and strong defensive side are still likely to limit his ceiling to below ideal keeper level. Sicily's a bit of an unknown- lots of competition for stats, role uncertain, durability's an issue. I'm leaning toward Sicily being a disappointing pick for anyone with particularly high expectations. Ideally I'd go with none of these players and would feel reasonably confident that I'm not going to get burned.
There are plenty of other options in that price range- May, Newman, Houston, Williams, Brodie Smith, Saad, Powell, Howe, Haynes, Ash, McInerney, and a few others. No one that I'd personally back to have a big scoring jump though.
Whitfield's ceiling is a known factor, I think GWS have enough options to keep him below that this season, and there's always a good chance he misses enough games to make his season average irrelevant. At the other end of the spectrum Hewett's very durable but his versatility and strong defensive side are still likely to limit his ceiling to below ideal keeper level. Sicily's a bit of an unknown- lots of competition for stats, role uncertain, durability's an issue. I'm leaning toward Sicily being a disappointing pick for anyone with particularly high expectations. Ideally I'd go with none of these players and would feel reasonably confident that I'm not going to get burned.
There are plenty of other options in that price range- May, Newman, Houston, Williams, Brodie Smith, Saad, Powell, Howe, Haynes, Ash, McInerney, and a few others. No one that I'd personally back to have a big scoring jump though.
I like Powell. Played 22 last season and went from 67 avg to 82. Now 22 years old so coming into that elite potential zone. He looked bloody good v the Cats in the AAMI. Shared the kick in duties with Weller and pretty much played that lucrative HB role for 91DT 97SC. PPM dropped off slightly in 2021 but avg game time topped 100min so the framework is there. Difficult to pick at $446k but still a solid option.
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Anyone here able to shed some light on Freo for me? Definitely the team I've seen the least of over the last few years.
As a team they ranked 5th last for marks per game last year (90).
In the most recent game they had 139 marks, 25 more than the next best team for the AAMI matches, averaged was 85.5 for the entire round.
Have Freo changed up their game style?
Was it just a preseason bruise free affair?
Was it because they smacked a very undermanned WC?
All of the above?
It's really making me consider starting Luke Ryan as my D2.
If this is a new Freo game plan, he'll be the one to feast on massive uncontested mark numbers (13 in the praccy game).
Won't be required to do KPD jobs with Pearce, Logue & Cox healthy.
Is the #1 kickout man, and the #2 in Wilson just picked up an injury.
As a team they ranked 5th last for marks per game last year (90).
In the most recent game they had 139 marks, 25 more than the next best team for the AAMI matches, averaged was 85.5 for the entire round.
Have Freo changed up their game style?
Was it just a preseason bruise free affair?
Was it because they smacked a very undermanned WC?
All of the above?
It's really making me consider starting Luke Ryan as my D2.
If this is a new Freo game plan, he'll be the one to feast on massive uncontested mark numbers (13 in the praccy game).
Won't be required to do KPD jobs with Pearce, Logue & Cox healthy.
Is the #1 kickout man, and the #2 in Wilson just picked up an injury.
Yeah he really impressed me last season. Bowes and now Weller have got a bit of attention SC wise in that distributor role at GC, but I reckon Powell's a level above both. His scoring last season was a bit all over the shop though, he had a few scores under 50. Probably tops out in the low 90s at best this season.
Clark
Yes all good points, but you would have to assume other teams will provide a lot more pressure.
Then there is Jordan Clark, you would think, slots into the DEF line, loves to run the ball. This has me hesitant on the Ryan selection.
Still Undecided between Ryan & Dale. Currently Dale fills D3.
Yes all good points, but you would have to assume other teams will provide a lot more pressure.
Then there is Jordan Clark, you would think, slots into the DEF line, loves to run the ball. This has me hesitant on the Ryan selection.
Still Undecided between Ryan & Dale. Currently Dale fills D3.