Strategy 2022: Round 2 Trades

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If Berry was going to play 22 games this season it would still be a no-brainer for me
Fair call. Although there's still question marks on Rowells ability to play every game. Swapping one injury prone player to another often ends in wasted trades.

For Rowell to be a successful trade I need him to play up until the byes at least, which he's yet to do in his career. Anyone who started with him only needs 5-6 weeks for him to make good cash and be a great pick, even if he gets injured. Fit Berry will still make plenty of money, albeit at a slower rate, he will run out games better than he did in round 1. So an early injury to Rowell makes this a nothing trade.

I'll admit that injury is the only question mark. Rowell could easily become a keeper with a 110+ average, which is why I would still seriously consider the trade if Berry is good to go. The asshole in me is hoping for a Berry 1-2 week injury so I don't have to stress over it.
 
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Should I rage trade Milera, or was a slow start expected after such a long layoff and limited pre season match practice?

Looks like I'll have SDK as a captain's loop this week, but he won't allow me to loop anyone with Milera
 
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Collingwood
If Berry's out for even 1 week it's a no brainer for me. If he's ok, then it's a tough call between making the trade and waiting 1 more week to see.
Round 1 inquired shoulder again. Even though was on the field 2nd Half, caught a cold out on the wing, and did his best to avoid a contested ball or tackle. Was basically a passenger 2nd half to keep rotations. Depending on injury report might flip him to Davies.

Only issue with this move is, 3 suns in the midfield.?

Will hold on crisp and wait for bubble boy martin.

Desperately need a Wilmont or a Skinner to be named this weekend.
 
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Essendon
For everyone feeling a bit bummed about some of their premium selections (I know I am!) I thought I'd share something that hopefully helps give some perspective.

Here is the 2021 top 30 (by average) and what they scored in rounds 1, 2, & 3, plus how much scores below 100 they had.

1647820460610.png

Note: I've set the bar at a level that feels about "disappointing", and that is subjective. Petracca with 98 points might have stung, but no one would realistically been considering trading him off that.

The main things I want to call out are:
1. 4 of the top 10 had an average round one, and 9 of the top 30.
2. All 9 of the poor first round scores rebounded in round 2
3. The average scores <100 for the top 10 is 4.4 - so between 4-5 games that are poor and heartbreaking (unless you're Macrae who is a freak!)

This is nothing technical and certainly no guarantees for this year.. but a poor score mid season surrounded by 100+ scores feels a lot different than when it happens in round 1, so don't be disheartened and don't rage trade those premiums! Last thing you want is to compound the pain by having to get them back because they are scoring well..

And before anyone says it, I know there are positional, injury, role, etc factors that can influence these numbers, and there are probably a number of reverse examples where poor scoring continued. Just hoping this gives a little hope to the downhearted coaches out there!
 
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For everyone feeling a bit bummed about some of their premium selections (I know I am!) I thought I'd share something that hopefully helps give some perspective.

Here is the 2021 top 30 (by average) and what they scored in rounds 1, 2, & 3, plus how much scores below 100 they had.

View attachment 41396

Note: I've set the bar at a level that feels about "disappointing", and that is subjective. Petracca with 98 points might have stung, but no one would realistically been considering trading him off that.

The main things I want to call out are:
1. 4 of the top 10 had an average round one, and 9 of the top 30.
2. All 9 of the poor first round scores rebounded in round 2
3. The average scores <100 for the top 10 is 4.4 - so between 4-5 games that are poor and heartbreaking (unless you're Macrae who is a freak!)

This is nothing technical and certainly no guarantees for this year.. but a poor score mid season surrounded by 100+ scores feels a lot different than when it happens in round 1, so don't be disheartened and don't rage trade those premiums! Last thing you want is to compound the pain by having to get them back because they are scoring well..

And before anyone says it, I know there are positional, injury, role, etc factors that can influence these numbers, and there are probably a number of reverse examples where poor scoring continued. Just hoping this gives a little hope to the downhearted coaches out there!
Also worth noting that the couple of 150+ scores to open last year reverted to just average-scores within the first 3 rounds. So perhaps be careful about chasing the points.
 
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