For everyone feeling a bit bummed about some of their premium selections (I know I am!) I thought I'd share something that hopefully helps give some perspective.
Here is the 2021 top 30 (by average) and what they scored in rounds 1, 2, & 3, plus how much scores below 100 they had.
View attachment 41396
Note: I've set the bar at a level that feels about "disappointing", and that is subjective. Petracca with 98 points might have stung, but no one would realistically been considering trading him off that.
The main things I want to call out are:
1. 4 of the top 10 had an average round one, and 9 of the top 30.
2. All 9 of the poor first round scores rebounded in round 2
3. The average scores <100 for the top 10 is 4.4 - so between 4-5 games that are poor and heartbreaking (unless you're Macrae who is a freak!)
This is nothing technical and certainly no guarantees for this year.. but a poor score mid season surrounded by 100+ scores feels a lot different than when it happens in round 1, so don't be disheartened and don't rage trade those premiums! Last thing you want is to compound the pain by having to get them back because they are scoring well..
And before anyone says it, I know there are positional, injury, role, etc factors that can influence these numbers, and there are probably a number of reverse examples where poor scoring continued. Just hoping this gives a little hope to the downhearted coaches out there!