Strategy 2022: Round 3 Trades

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Collingwood
Would love to know your thoughts, if you didn't have these rookies where would you rank them as must haves for Round 3
Personally my ranking is
1. Xerri
2. MacDonald
3. Hayes
4. Durdin
5. Naish
Id agree with most of that
Hayes with PS would be 2. But JS has him at 3 or 4 for me

5 and 4 could be switched as well? Although i feel its pretty accurate as it is
 
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Collingwood
Bowey has the role now and is very supercoach friendly, he should get to $430,000+ imo.
Lever is coming back but Bowey is doing Salem's role.
Only thing i worry about with Bowey is, i have found Melbournes defence structures to fluctuate often
I found it while owning May last year
1 week he would own the backline the next Salem or Lever would
And as Bowey is "sort" of the new kid on the block.....
 
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Richmond
Would love to know your thoughts, if you didn't have these rookies where would you rank them as must haves for Round 3
Personally my ranking is
1. Xerri
2. MacDonald
3. Hayes
4. Durdin
5. Naish
1.Xerri
2. Hayes ( they won't drop him imo as he can play as a utility even with Ryder back)
3. Naish ( looks to have cemented a spot with his kicking and running)
4. MacDonald
5. Durdin
 
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Richmond
Only thing i worry about with Bowey is, i have found Melbournes defence structures to fluctuate often
I found it while owning May last year
1 week he would own the backline the next Salem or Lever would
And as Bowey is "sort" of the new kid on the block.....
He scored 151 no other defender has scored that well.
He may get a few 60's but he can can score big.
 
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Collingwood
What other two players for the first option?
After looking around all i can find is Cripps, L MacDonald (OR Lipinski), and Skinner/ Mountford as rookies
(Option 1^^)
Lippa gets me an extra 20k to spend but its just not enough for me to grab Hinge who is the only def rookie on the bubble

Alternatively, i could grab Caldwell, Hinge and Cripps, but i feel option 1 has more potential
(Option 2^^)

OR
Cripps, Bowey/Foley, Stephens/Naish/Davis
(Option 3^^)
 
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He scored 151 no other defender has scored that well.
He may get a few 60's but he can can score big.
Very true, obviously worth looking at
Do we know how long Lever and Salem are out for?

And are 60s enough for price rises?

I do feel he could be this years Alir Alir, i havent got the faintest idea why im struggling so much on Bowey myself, as pre season i was 100% for him, now he scores 150 and gets attention and im on the back foot??
 

Tamuhawk

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Hawthorn
Hi All - Unfortunately I struggle to find time to post on here much, but really love reading everyone's thoughts. I would really appreciate some thoughts on my 2x proposed trade options:

Option 1 - Fade Hayes
Gawn > Jackson
Whitfield > Hinge
Owens > Cripps
Leaves me with $279,700 ITB.

Pros:
Would have great looping options down back.
Cripps obviously outscores Whitfield so that's an easy win.
Then if Jackson matches or stays within 10 points of Gawn for 6-7 weeks I get a massive cash boost.
The $280k is then an easy upgrade from one of Chapman, Berry, McGovern, Rookies etc to a fallen premium over the next couple of weeks.

Cons:
Main downside is I wouldn't have Hayes.
Jackson over Gawn on field could come back to bite me, although I think the cash gain is locked.


Option 2 - Get Hayes
Gawn > Hayes
Whitfield > Hall
Owens > Cripps
Leaves me with ~$170k ITB.

Pros:
Hall clearly outscores Whit.
Cripps probably outscores Gawn.
I get the cash boost from Hayes.

Cons:
Downside is less cash and I'm stuck with Hayes/Dixon on field until Round 7. Which could be a pretty big risk and force unwanted trades given Ryder is a chance to play this week and may end up impacting Hayes a fair bit.
Less cash for that next upgrade and probably requires another downgrade to get there

Current team before trades:
View attachment 41883

Am I missing anything? Would really appreciate any thoughts from the community!
First of all. Hayes is a must so scrap option 1. However Hayes at R2 is very risky aswell so I'd probably scrap option 2 aswell.

My suggestion for you is prioritise rookies over sideways trading out your big guns. I'd say Cripps could be a priority.

Here's my suggestion for you.
OUT: Chapman, McGovern & Berry.
IN: Hinge, Hayes & Cripps.

Not the worst thing in the world to be holding Owens as a donut for now. You could turn Owens to Skinner in round 4 if you'd like. Good luck with whatever you decide.
 
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He'll make $150k by round 8 if he averages 83, if he can do this he's worth getting in, if he only goes 70 from here it wont be.
But if you don't have him now you have to use 2 trades to access that $150K (trade in then trade out) therefore you are only getting $75K per trade.

He needs to make $200K plus to be worth trading in and then out.

If he makes $200K though he is then at keeper lever so you probably would not trade him out.

The question is then can Bowey become a premium (95+ average)?

His scoring history is:
52, 85, 62, 45, 42, 80, 66, 58 and 151

Pros: Young player so improving, Salem out so spot is open
Cons: 60-80 appears his true average with 151 an outlier

Personally I don't think he is going to be a keeper this year so I will give him a miss. Although I'm not 100% on this.
 
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Carlton
But who else is there in defence?
It depends what you're trying to do, he's probably a good side swap from a Chapman or Richards pick but im not sure about going from Whitfield or Ridley all the way down unless there is a real restructure required (ie: getting rid of other failed mid pricer on other lines for a premo there).
 
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Very true, obviously worth looking at
Do we know how long Lever and Salem are out for?

And are 60s enough for price rises?

I do feel he could be this years Alir Alir, i havent got the faintest idea why im struggling so much on Bowey myself, as pre season i was 100% for him, now he scores 150 and gets attention and im on the back foot??
Salem is out for 7 more weeks. I picked Bowey in my starting team as he is an elite kick and is on the rise.
Be confident in the Bowey pick. Hinge looks ok but I would be looking at midfield rookies before him.
 
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But if you don't have him now you have to use 2 trades to access that $150K (trade in then trade out) therefore you are only getting $75K per trade.

He needs to make $200K plus to be worth trading in and then out.

If he makes $200K though he is then at keeper lever so you probably would not trade him out.

The question is then can Bowey become a premium (95+ average)?

His scoring history is:
52, 85, 62, 45, 42, 80, 66, 58 and 151

Pros: Young player so improving, Salem out so spot is open
Cons: 60-80 appears his true average with 151 an outlier

Personally I don't think he is going to be a keeper this year so I will give him a miss. Although I'm not 100% on this.
He's not going to go 95+, that is very rare for a player that has played so few games.
 
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Sydney
In another year, in another spot, you'd give him a chance. But against Heeney and Butters it's time to admit defeat.
Mate, Heeney is like a 60% probability of being a trap. He’s playing the role that has been pure poison for him in the past. A clear 2H trade in target when Papley is back and he actually gets a few CBAs. I love him, I’m not getting sucked into 9 goals in 2 games.

Butters is uncomfortable not holding - but I still don’t think he’ll ruin non-owners season. He’s 80 kgs dripping wet, and has decided that a fearless crash and bash style is his ticket to ride. I’m seeing injury coming.
 
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Whitfield, Baldwin > Hewett, Xerri
Currently have 60k ITB and need to find some cash to get Xerri, most of my rookies are playing except a few 102k, 117k options so i had to find the cash through Whitfield
 
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From BF:-

Whitfield covered 15.3km on the weekend.

He covered the most amount of ground in the GWS-Richmond game and was in the top 8 of ground covered for round 2.

It's a pretty simple situation for me:
Players generally score better in wins than losses and I predict GWS win more than they lose this year.
GWS looks heaps better when they're playing through Whitfield. They haven't done that - something needs to change. I'm assuming they'll try to involve him more in transition in the coming weeks.
He's covering the ground just fine
If you check his scores last year, he's prone to throwing in the odd 60-80 but his ceiling is so high that it all evens out in the end.


Interesting, if had a niggle it certainly isn’t impeding him too much, still covering a lot of ground.
He is clearly fit enough to be out there, as his TOG was 90%.

Someone mentioned that a commentator said he came to the bench and was lifting his leg up and out (don't know which leg). Hip flexor, adductor/abductor, stomach muscle on one side? Maybe something that affects running at top pace and potentially kicking? He had 13 kicks and 10 handballs, but I didn't particularly notice whether he avoided his right foot for example. He did kick across ground on his left and turned it over (3rd Q I think) so maybe avoiding kicking with a full action on his right?

A guy on BF who gets Giants info suggested an issue last week and said "watch this space" again Sunday night. The worst case is he keeps getting picked but isn't quite right. Total guesswork unfortunately, unless he actually misses a game/s.
 
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