Strategy 2022: Round 3 Trades
- Thread starter Tamuhawk
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Speaking as someone with Heeney (this week after trades), Cripps and Hewett and no Gawn:
Cripps represents outstanding value for money. He won't keep scoring at that level (obviously) but something like 105-108 priced at 83.5 is irresistible and makes him a must have. That's Sidebottom 2012, Coniglio 2018, Jack Steven 2015 levels.
Heeney I'm sure will revert to the mean (his historical average is 95), but with Buddy fit and him in his prime midfielder years he's more likely to push up towards 100. Again, priced at 83.5 he's hard to pass up. That would put him on par with say Zorko in 2014; in that year his score variance was huge (ceiling of 161-162, floor of 46-47) but all said and done he gave you a 99 average for a $447.2k outlay. Win.
Hewett looks to be playing as a starting onballer and has slotted into that midfield nicely despite Cripps Walsh and Cerra. His work rate seems to be off the charts and given the crapshoot that is DEF premos this year looks to be a conservative choice for a D5-D6 keeper. Plenty in that price bracket have returned 95+ over the years (think Houli, Waters, Marty Mattner, Tom McDonald, Hibberd, Williams, Newman, even Heath Shaw) so there's historical precedent. The closest to Hewett in terms of role was David Swallow at $429.4 in 2014 who averaged 103.2 and was in pretty much everyone's team.
Of the 3 I'd rank them Cripps, Hewett, Heeney in terms of priority. I think other forwards can match Heeney for value for the time being.
Only four ruckmen have been priced in that $645k echelon: Gawn, Grundy, Goldy and Dean Cox. Only one has ever given a positive return on his price (Gawn in 2020 averaged 139.9 priced at $697.1k), but beware: that was in a reduced length season and he missed 3 games so the average was artificially inflated. A 95% ROI on these top-priced guys is acceptable provided they can provide a captaincy option, but with Macrae, Cripps and Neale fulfilling that role this season serious questions need to be asked about Gawn's worth. The only other 30+ aged ruckman priced that high (Cox in 2012 at $662.6k) only managed 112.3 - and that was with 12 scores over 100 (top scores of 215 and 190!) but a staggering 10 scores under 100 including 76, 76, 74 and 68. A 112.3 from a ruckman looks good on paper but the man was priced at 122. For $338.3k you had Maric returning 114.3 and a spare $325k in your pocket.
To decide who to take (and who to trade) you need to consider each player against their competitors on each line - not in terms of whether they will be in the top x scorers by average on that line, but whether they will be the best value for money on that line (as a keeper). I think Cripps, Heeney and Hewett satisfy that criterion. I can't say the same for Gawn.
Cripps represents outstanding value for money. He won't keep scoring at that level (obviously) but something like 105-108 priced at 83.5 is irresistible and makes him a must have. That's Sidebottom 2012, Coniglio 2018, Jack Steven 2015 levels.
Heeney I'm sure will revert to the mean (his historical average is 95), but with Buddy fit and him in his prime midfielder years he's more likely to push up towards 100. Again, priced at 83.5 he's hard to pass up. That would put him on par with say Zorko in 2014; in that year his score variance was huge (ceiling of 161-162, floor of 46-47) but all said and done he gave you a 99 average for a $447.2k outlay. Win.
Hewett looks to be playing as a starting onballer and has slotted into that midfield nicely despite Cripps Walsh and Cerra. His work rate seems to be off the charts and given the crapshoot that is DEF premos this year looks to be a conservative choice for a D5-D6 keeper. Plenty in that price bracket have returned 95+ over the years (think Houli, Waters, Marty Mattner, Tom McDonald, Hibberd, Williams, Newman, even Heath Shaw) so there's historical precedent. The closest to Hewett in terms of role was David Swallow at $429.4 in 2014 who averaged 103.2 and was in pretty much everyone's team.
Of the 3 I'd rank them Cripps, Hewett, Heeney in terms of priority. I think other forwards can match Heeney for value for the time being.
Only four ruckmen have been priced in that $645k echelon: Gawn, Grundy, Goldy and Dean Cox. Only one has ever given a positive return on his price (Gawn in 2020 averaged 139.9 priced at $697.1k), but beware: that was in a reduced length season and he missed 3 games so the average was artificially inflated. A 95% ROI on these top-priced guys is acceptable provided they can provide a captaincy option, but with Macrae, Cripps and Neale fulfilling that role this season serious questions need to be asked about Gawn's worth. The only other 30+ aged ruckman priced that high (Cox in 2012 at $662.6k) only managed 112.3 - and that was with 12 scores over 100 (top scores of 215 and 190!) but a staggering 10 scores under 100 including 76, 76, 74 and 68. A 112.3 from a ruckman looks good on paper but the man was priced at 122. For $338.3k you had Maric returning 114.3 and a spare $325k in your pocket.
To decide who to take (and who to trade) you need to consider each player against their competitors on each line - not in terms of whether they will be in the top x scorers by average on that line, but whether they will be the best value for money on that line (as a keeper). I think Cripps, Heeney and Hewett satisfy that criterion. I can't say the same for Gawn.
To English or not to English? That is the question.
Really not enjoying the Bulldogs playing the first game of the round each week....
Really not enjoying the Bulldogs playing the first game of the round each week....
I'm set on Witts so will watch English pump out his 110 tonight. A Dogs win would be great for him.
Think a Swans win and we might see English thrown forward soon.
