Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Rowsus · 31 Mar 2022

D: Hinge, McCartin, Gibcus, SDK
M: JHF, Daicos, Stephens, Rachelle, Ward, MacDonald
R: Dixon
F: Coniglio, Xerri, Martin, Durdin, Hayes

While it's possible to say, you can never have too many good Cows, I think you probably have enough of the better ones, to allow yourself to get Heeney. 12 Keepers, 3 maybe Keepers, your team is pretty well set up. Well done!

Mafia FC · 1 Apr 2022

Hi Rowsus, when I think for too long about a particular SC related thing I tend to turn to this thread to see if anyone has already asked the same question and get an opinion... nobody seems to be interested in Tom Green but I'm seriously considering him especially now that Hopper is out long term.

Pros:
-His preseason and Round 1 & 2 games have been statistically outstanding,
-he reminds me of a younger Dangerfield with similar build and playing style. He seems to be accumulating heaps of ball and particularly the contested variety, his CBA and clearance stats are elite this year so far, can score a goal or two
- GWS announced Hopper is out injured till second half of the year, Hopper and Green would have very similar playing style... so Hopper out for a while likely gives Green more time on ball

Cons:
- the GWS team is stacked with SC hungry players like Jelly, Taranto, Ward, Coniglio, Whitfield, Cummins, Perryman, Greene, etc...
- His price is very awkward at $430K so getting him in would basically saying he is breaking out to become potential keeper material... can he maintain the rage?

He is 3rd year player now and I see him in the light that he is breaking out be a seriously good SC premo in future maybe as soon as NOW! ... Tell me if you think i'm nuts, keen to get some opinions on this and if anyone is thinking about this guy as much as I am..

Cheers!

Juzzo · 2 Apr 2022

Mafia FC said:

Hi Rowsus, when I think for too long about a particular SC related thing I tend to turn to this thread to see if anyone has already asked the same question and get an opinion... nobody seems to be interested in Tom Green but I'm seriously considering him especially now that Hopper is out long term.

Pros:
-His preseason and Round 1 & 2 games have been statistically outstanding,
-he reminds me of a younger Dangerfield with similar build and playing style. He seems to be accumulating heaps of ball and particularly the contested variety, his CBA and clearance stats are elite this year so far, can score a goal or two
- GWS announced Hopper is out injured till second half of the year, Hopper and Green would have very similar playing style... so Hopper out for a while likely gives Green more time on ball

Cons:
- the GWS team is stacked with SC hungry players like Jelly, Taranto, Ward, Coniglio, Whitfield, Cummins, Perryman, Greene, etc...
- His price is very awkward at $430K so getting him in would basically saying he is breaking out to become potential keeper material... can he maintain the rage?

He is 3rd year player now and I see him in the light that he is breaking out be a seriously good SC premo in future maybe as soon as NOW! ... Tell me if you think i'm nuts, keen to get some opinions on this and if anyone is thinking about this guy as much as I am..

Cheers!

FWIW, I've traded him in this week!

Rowsus · 2 Apr 2022

Mafia FC said:

Hi Mafia FC,
sorry for the late reply, it's been a busy day.
The first thing that sprung to mind, upon reading your question, is the Cameron affect.
Does his game plan allow for more than one SC Prem Mid?
Clarko suffered for years under this, and until Mitchell came along, Clarko went many years without a SC Prem Mid. Jordan Lewis had an 18-20 game period, stretched across 2 seasons, as a Prem Mid, but while Haw was a top side, they didn't have many 110+ players in their Mids!
I don't know the answer off the top of my head, so let's take a look!
2021
J Kelly 21/107 - PIT65 105.1
T Taranto 22/97
2020
J Kelly 14/114.6 - PIT65 105.8
Whitfield 17/104.5
2019
J Kelly 14/117.4 - PIT65 98.4
T Taranto 22/102
2018
J Kelly 15/113.8 - PIT65 98.3
S Coniglio 21/108.4 - PIT65 106.5
C Ward 22/104.6
2017
J Kelly 21/114.3 - PIT65 112.1
C Ward 22/99.7

So when we look back at the last 5 seasons, they have struggled to have anyone outside of Kelly average 105+. There are some decent players amongst there, so is it Cameron's game plan? Is it his propensity to throw those Mid magnets around the board? We can't be sure. He says he has changed direction this year, whether that change helps another Mid become SC relevant waits to be seen.
In general terms, I'd be thinking Green's Rnd 2 106 was closer to his norm, rather than his Rnd 1 164. The question comes down to, what you need to be happy, and can he reach that level?
I think it is fraught with danger trading in high Mid priced players you'd be happy to have fill M7/8, F6, D6, early in the season. One of the biggest traps in SC is ending up with a team that has too many M8's, F6's etc. Each one is 5-15 points behind the player you need them to be.
I'd only be trading Green in, if you were reasonably confident he could fill M6 or higher for you. I'm not confident he can. And remember, either way, if you trade him or not. What he produces in the next few Rounds is largely irrelevant. It's his season performance that counts!

Mafia FC · 2 Apr 2022

Rowsus said:

Hi Mafia FC,
sorry for the late reply, it's been a busy day.
The first thing that sprung to mind, upon reading your question, is the Cameron affect.
Does his game plan allow for more than one SC Prem Mid?
Clarko suffered for years under this, and until Mitchell came along, Clarko went many years without a SC Prem Mid. Jordan Lewis had an 18-20 game period, stretched across 2 seasons, as a Prem Mid, but while Haw was a top side, they didn't have many 110+ players in their Mids!
I don't know the answer off the top of my head, so let's take a look!
2021
J Kelly 21/107 - PIT65 105.1
T Taranto 22/97
2020
J Kelly 14/114.6 - PIT65 105.8
Whitfield 17/104.5
2019
J Kelly 14/117.4 - PIT65 98.4
T Taranto 22/102
2018
J Kelly 15/113.8 - PIT65 98.3
S Coniglio 21/108.4 - PIT65 106.5
C Ward 22/104.6
2017
J Kelly 21/114.3 - PIT65 112.1
C Ward 22/99.7

So when we look back at the last 5 seasons, they have struggled to have anyone outside of Kelly average 105+. There are some decent players amongst there, so is it Cameron's game plan? Is it his propensity to throw those Mid magnets around the board? We can't be sure. He says he has changed direction this year, whether that change helps another Mid become SC relevant waits to be seen.
In general terms, I'd be thinking Green's Rnd 2 106 was closer to his norm, rather than his Rnd 1 164. The question comes down to, what you need to be happy, and can he reach that level?
I think it is fraught with danger trading in high Mid priced players you'd be happy to have fill M7/8, F6, D6, early in the season. One of the biggest traps in SC is ending up with a team that has too many M8's, F6's etc. Each one is 5-15 points behind the player you need them to be.
I'd only be trading Green in, if you were reasonably confident he could fill M6 or higher for you. I'm not confident he can. And remember, either way, if you trade him or not. What he produces in the next few Rounds is largely irrelevant. It's his season performance that counts!

Cheers Rowsus, great breakdown and indeed it is a risk.

Mafia FC · 2 Apr 2022

Rowsus said:

Hi Mafia FC,
sorry for the late reply, it's been a busy day.
The first thing that sprung to mind, upon reading your question, is the Cameron affect.
Does his game plan allow for more than one SC Prem Mid?
Clarko suffered for years under this, and until Mitchell came along, Clarko went many years without a SC Prem Mid. Jordan Lewis had an 18-20 game period, stretched across 2 seasons, as a Prem Mid, but while Haw was a top side, they didn't have many 110+ players in their Mids!
I don't know the answer off the top of my head, so let's take a look!
2021
J Kelly 21/107 - PIT65 105.1
T Taranto 22/97
2020
J Kelly 14/114.6 - PIT65 105.8
Whitfield 17/104.5
2019
J Kelly 14/117.4 - PIT65 98.4
T Taranto 22/102
2018
J Kelly 15/113.8 - PIT65 98.3
S Coniglio 21/108.4 - PIT65 106.5
C Ward 22/104.6
2017
J Kelly 21/114.3 - PIT65 112.1
C Ward 22/99.7

So when we look back at the last 5 seasons, they have struggled to have anyone outside of Kelly average 105+. There are some decent players amongst there, so is it Cameron's game plan? Is it his propensity to throw those Mid magnets around the board? We can't be sure. He says he has changed direction this year, whether that change helps another Mid become SC relevant waits to be seen.
In general terms, I'd be thinking Green's Rnd 2 106 was closer to his norm, rather than his Rnd 1 164. The question comes down to, what you need to be happy, and can he reach that level?
I think it is fraught with danger trading in high Mid priced players you'd be happy to have fill M7/8, F6, D6, early in the season. One of the biggest traps in SC is ending up with a team that has too many M8's, F6's etc. Each one is 5-15 points behind the player you need them to be.
I'd only be trading Green in, if you were reasonably confident he could fill M6 or higher for you. I'm not confident he can. And remember, either way, if you trade him or not. What he produces in the next few Rounds is largely irrelevant. It's his season performance that counts!

I did get Green btw, can't complain after today... I watched the game and he looked really good, hopefully he can keep this up!

Leroy · 4 Apr 2022

Here's hopefully a fun one for you Rowus (or anybody

)...

At what point do you gain advantage by trading out an over-priced player? Does it change this year because of there being both more trades and less gun cheap rookies?

If I'm holding a player who has spiked to $650k, who I think averages 110 from that point on, you could say they are $100k over-priced. If you trade them to a $550k player who you think will average 115, are you ahead enough to make it worth the 'sideways' move? ($100k banked, 5 ppg improvement, 1 trade used).

Does the maths/logic change at all if the player you are trading out is still keeper range for the line, despite being over-priced?

froffershanners · 4 Apr 2022

Hi Rowsus, looking to trade in Martin this week and interested on your thoughts on trading out Hollands versus a Rachele/Stephens type.

How do you weigh up the potential points Hollands can save with rookie roulette and VC/C selections (and being potentially close to getting a game) against cutting a cow before they’ve had the chance to fully ripen?

Rumbler · 5 Apr 2022

Hey Rows, how's are ya?!

Been a fairly underwhelming start for me this year. Haven't made any trades yet and I'm getting that sinking feeling that I might have missed out last week before the prices changed. Parish has been good but not great.
What are your thoughts on Cripps and Tom Green? Is it too late to sideways Parish to one of them to free up some cash and improve scoring?
I have one eye on Preuss next week, purely for cash generation purposes. But I can't afford him at the moment so trading Parish (or Crisp!) is one avenue to free up some cash. Still have Gawn and I'm inclined to keep him for now anyways.

Cheers

Rowsus · 7 Apr 2022

Leroy said:

Your math is a little out.
If you sideways for 100k in change, that's one trade, to get the theorhetical 5/game, you have to use another trade.
Every season for the past 5 or 6 seasons I have pulled a similar move. I'm on about a 40-50% success rate with it.
My general rule of thumb with this sort of move is:
You only trade out your overpriced Prem, to a lower priced Keeper, if it easily gets you to another Keeper, with the use of one more trade.
Your overpriced Prem needs to be sitting on a BIG BE. This is because, if the trade out becomes regrettable, at least his price is heading in the right direction, if you decide you need to get him back in. By BIG, i'd want it to be at least 180, preferably higher.
I don't think the equation changes, just because of this years Rookie situation, nor the 5 extra trades.
The last bit, about the player going out still being Keeper range for the line .......... my guess is, if he's that much overpriced, most would assume he is a Keeper.

Rowsus · 7 Apr 2022

froffershanners said:

Hi froffershanners,
I generally think you need to assume you will have loop agaents, as the season wears on. I'd try and hold onto both Rachele/Stephens, as they both have the potential to throw in a real cash generating kick-starter score. While it might be tempting to hold Hollands for the potential 40-80 pointshe might generate this Round, through looping, the other two could easily outstrip that, if they can kick start their cash gen again. Even if Stephens is dropped, I'd be more thinking to hold him, over Holland.

Rowsus · 7 Apr 2022

Rumbler said:

Hi Rumb,
while I'm not usually one to jump on the overly popular players, I think there are times you make exceptions. Cripps last week fell into that catagory. Having missed his low, low price, it actually becomes a little debatable, if closing that negative POD is as worthwhile this week. He still represents some value, but nowhere near as much as last week. In your position, I think I'd be more likely to give Green a whirl.
I don't like that you seem to be doing this trade, to facilitate Preuss coming in. I think you need to remove Preuss from the equation, and ask yourself, would you still be trading Crisp/Parish, if Preuss went down with a LTI last week?
Comparing their averages, to their prices, Crisp looks like he will fall further than Parish, from here. If you decide to go ahead with it, I'd use Crisp, unless it totally mangles your DPP set ups.
I think having kept Gawn last week, you need to hold him now. There is nothing wrong with not trading him, at the moment.

Maso · 10 Apr 2022

Hey Rowus , i wont ask the same question as i always get the same answer and im sick off that answer being correct 😂
Defence is my weakest line playing 3 rookies, So was wondering in your opinion which defenders should i target 1st .
I have Short, Hewett and Crisp

Rowsus · 14 Apr 2022

Maso said:

Hey Maso,
I think we're in for an unusual year. The new release of DPP's will only make it even more unusual!
It's not hard to imagine the Bullies ending up with: Dunkley, English, Smith, Treloar and possibly even Bont, being in the seasons end top 10 Fwds!!!
We have something similar in the Defs already, with Carlton having 3 of the current top 7 Defs by average (Doc, Hewett, Saad) and also the 22nd (Williams), so 4 in the top 22!!!
I really think the new-baked M/D will have a big bearing on who we should be targetting. When the likes of Pendlebury become Def eligible, they will become immensely popular!
Let's ignore that for the moment. You have 2 x Rnd 12 Def, and 1 x Rnd 14 Def. So maybe for balance, you should target a Rnd 13 Def. I'd suggest Stewart or Dawson. Stewart's in 18% of teams, and Dawson is in 4%, so I will say Dawson!

Maso · 14 Apr 2022

Rowsus said:

Hey Maso,
I think we're in for an unusual year. The new release of DPP's will only make it even more unusual!
It's not hard to imagine the Bullies ending up with: Dunkley, English, Smith, Treloar and possibly even Bont, being in the seasons end top 10 Fwds!!!
We have something similar in the Defs already, with Carlton having 3 of the current top 7 Defs by average (Doc, Hewett, Saad) and also the 22nd (Williams), so 4 in the top 22!!!
I really think the new-baked M/D will have a big bearing on who we should be targetting. When the likes of Pendlebury become Def eligible, they will become immensely popular!
Let's ignore that for the moment. You have 2 x Rnd 12 Def, and 1 x Rnd 14 Def. So maybe for balance, you should target a Rnd 13 Def. I'd suggest Stewart or Dawson. Stewart's in 18% of teams, and Dawson is in 4%, so I will say Dawson!

God i love your wisdom

Mafia FC · 9 May 2022

Hi Rowsus and everyone,
I brought in Tom Mitchell couple rounds a go thinking he was great value for a proven gun... Have been hearing that he might have a role change? and that coach Sam is wanting to blood the kids more? and so Tom is getting impacted.? This week he stunk it up big time with just a 40 and has been all over the place this far in the season..
I'm keen to get opinions on if he is still could be considered a keeper under this Sam Mitchell system this season? I don't know much about this system or what is actually happening at the hawks so any info to inform would be much appreciated!
Basically if I ditch Titch this week at $526k then I can possibly salvage something and trade him to a Wines or someone else... But I am very torn as I've had him in my team previous years and has been great...
Is it time for me to move on from him or should I stick with him?... What would you do?
Cheers!

Gruffles · 9 May 2022

Mafia FC said:

Hi Rowsus and everyone,
I brought in Tom Mitchell couple rounds a go thinking he was great value for a proven gun... Have been hearing that he might have a role change? and that coach Sam is wanting to blood the kids more? and so Tom is getting impacted.? This week he stunk it up big time with just a 40 and has been all over the place this far in the season..
I'm keen to get opinions on if he is still could be considered a keeper under this Sam Mitchell system this season? I don't know much about this system or what is actually happening at the hawks so any info to inform would be much appreciated!
Basically if I ditch Titch this week at $526k then I can possibly salvage something and trade him to a Wines or someone else... But I am very torn as I've had him in my team previous years and has been great...
Is it time for me to move on from him or should I stick with him?... What would you do?
Cheers!

Get rid of him!

Rowsus · 9 May 2022

Mafia FC said:

Hi Mafia FC,
I think you have to get rid of him, while his value makes it an easy process.
There may be a period during the season, where he looks like the player you used to know, but in general, I think he will continue to disappoint you.
His BE is around 189, so you could easily lose $40-$45k, or even more this week.
The risk is too great, I'd ditch him this week!

Mafia FC · 9 May 2022

Thanks guys, makes sense.
Cheers

dicksilverman · 28 Jun 2022

Hi Rowsus, unsure if you’re still responding to questions, understand if not. In case you are, here’s mine.
5 trades left, 3035 placed. Top 8 in all cash leagues. Have complete team plus English on the bench. Big deficiency is no Oliver. Only be trade option. Brayshaw (Freo) to Oliver, by way of Clark to Bazzo. Closes the negative POD, and gives me a D/F link to Voss. BUT leaves me 3 trades. Gotta be now or never as Bazzo is a good downgrade option if he keeps playing. Would appreciate your thoughts if possible. Thank you, DS.
Edit- I could also trade English and keep Brayshaw and have Boak at M9, but no flexibility other than possible loopholes. Keeping English feels smarter.

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