Strategy 2022: Round 6 Trades
- Thread starter Tamuhawk
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The way Hewett's been going it looks very likely that he'll be a top six defender and definitely a keeper. I don't think he's must have - there's plenty of alternatives - but we're five weeks in and there are concrete reasons as to his scoring change, so unless you expect him to move back to Sydney and start playing there again regression to the mean doesn't make sense in this context as he has no real "mean" to regress to in this situation.
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Been somewhat forced to bank some cash over the last couple of weeks, and now sitting on $472k, so need to spend it. Narrowed it down to 2 options:
Hinge ---> Sicily
Rowell ---> Steele
JHF ---> Preuss (via Martin, then, via Hayes / English)
$105k remaining
OR
Hinge ---> Petracca (via Daicos)
Rowell ---> Heeney (via Martin)
Dixon ---> Preuss (via Hayes / English)
$36k remaining
Would love some thoughts, or other suggestions.
Current team (before trades) is:
Short, Hewett, Ridley, Daniel, NOD, DeKoning (Hinge, McCartin)
Macrae, Neale, Oliver, Cripps, Rowell, Daicos, JHF, Rachele (Ward, MacDonald, Hough)
Grundy, English (Hayes)
Dunkley, Butters, Coniglio, Brodie, Xerri, Martin (Dixon, Durdin)
Hinge ---> Sicily
Rowell ---> Steele
JHF ---> Preuss (via Martin, then, via Hayes / English)
$105k remaining
OR
Hinge ---> Petracca (via Daicos)
Rowell ---> Heeney (via Martin)
Dixon ---> Preuss (via Hayes / English)
$36k remaining
Would love some thoughts, or other suggestions.
Current team (before trades) is:
Short, Hewett, Ridley, Daniel, NOD, DeKoning (Hinge, McCartin)
Macrae, Neale, Oliver, Cripps, Rowell, Daicos, JHF, Rachele (Ward, MacDonald, Hough)
Grundy, English (Hayes)
Dunkley, Butters, Coniglio, Brodie, Xerri, Martin (Dixon, Durdin)
Couple of interesting things I noticed about Preuss..
1. In the 2 games he played this year he was only on field for 86mins and 87mins.. that's almost NN low. For comparison, English/Grundy (2 random players I looked at) usually have +100mins TOG. Don't have these as a percentage but game times shouldn't vary so much that 20mins less TOG isn't significant. Especially as Flynn didn't play!
2. In those games Preuss scored 1.3ppm and 1.2ppm - historically he's never had better than 1.1ppm and seems to hover more around the 0.9-1ppm range.
Definitely has me doubting him as a trade in - if he finishes on 0.9ppm from 86mins TOG then he's looking at ~77 points.. not hard to see the ppm dropping with ruck share and more time forward, and while TOG might increase as he rests forward the fact he was so low as sole ruck is a worry.
If Phayes wasn't on the radar I could see it, but being 80k less and potentially scoring the same.. I think I'll let Preuss go...
1. In the 2 games he played this year he was only on field for 86mins and 87mins.. that's almost NN low. For comparison, English/Grundy (2 random players I looked at) usually have +100mins TOG. Don't have these as a percentage but game times shouldn't vary so much that 20mins less TOG isn't significant. Especially as Flynn didn't play!
2. In those games Preuss scored 1.3ppm and 1.2ppm - historically he's never had better than 1.1ppm and seems to hover more around the 0.9-1ppm range.
Definitely has me doubting him as a trade in - if he finishes on 0.9ppm from 86mins TOG then he's looking at ~77 points.. not hard to see the ppm dropping with ruck share and more time forward, and while TOG might increase as he rests forward the fact he was so low as sole ruck is a worry.
If Phayes wasn't on the radar I could see it, but being 80k less and potentially scoring the same.. I think I'll let Preuss go...
I've been grappling with this one over the week too so I'll share my thoughts that led me to Petracca over Steele.. and the main one is the draw.
Starting with vs GWS, Steele's last 3 scores are 91, 149, 98.. 2/3 stinkers and one monster.. mixed bag but shows enough to suggest he has copped attention when playing them. Wouldn't be unreasonable to see him score 90-100 this week.
Next up.. Port, and despite being pretty woeful, they don't actually give up massive SC scores to midfielders.
Round 1 vs Brisbane - Neale 140, no others over 100
Round 2 vs Hawthorn - none over 100
Round 3* vs Adelaide - Dawson 123, Crouch 116, Keays 113
Round 4 vs Melbourne - Viney 100, no others over 100
Round 5* vs Carlton* - Walsh 128, Hewett 111, no others over 100
*close games which has some super impactful late scaling.
Outside of Neale going beast mode in round 1, they often keep mids relatively flat. So Steele could play well and still hit a 90-105 point score.
If he does hit back to back 100's, then his form line could start to look eerily close to last season:
Meaning in a month or so he could be sub $590k (potentially lower) and at a great time for upgrading as the cows have hit max moo.
So basically, I don't think Steele is worth it right now at $640k - I can't see him massively increasing in price from here but there is a reasonable possibility that he drops $70-80k over the next month and get essentially be grabbed for the price Petracca is now.
Starting with vs GWS, Steele's last 3 scores are 91, 149, 98.. 2/3 stinkers and one monster.. mixed bag but shows enough to suggest he has copped attention when playing them. Wouldn't be unreasonable to see him score 90-100 this week.
Next up.. Port, and despite being pretty woeful, they don't actually give up massive SC scores to midfielders.
Round 1 vs Brisbane - Neale 140, no others over 100
Round 2 vs Hawthorn - none over 100
Round 3* vs Adelaide - Dawson 123, Crouch 116, Keays 113
Round 4 vs Melbourne - Viney 100, no others over 100
Round 5* vs Carlton* - Walsh 128, Hewett 111, no others over 100
*close games which has some super impactful late scaling.
Outside of Neale going beast mode in round 1, they often keep mids relatively flat. So Steele could play well and still hit a 90-105 point score.
If he does hit back to back 100's, then his form line could start to look eerily close to last season:
Meaning in a month or so he could be sub $590k (potentially lower) and at a great time for upgrading as the cows have hit max moo.
So basically, I don't think Steele is worth it right now at $640k - I can't see him massively increasing in price from here but there is a reasonable possibility that he drops $70-80k over the next month and get essentially be grabbed for the price Petracca is now.
Trades are set for this week Ward > Rosas & Grundy > Smith, already have Preuss with Xerri as cover via Dixon.
Will have a couple of big decisions next week though with Hobbs and SHayes on the bubble, ie; Do I bring in SHayes for Dixon? And what's the JS of Hobbs like? If I want both then I'll have to use a boost as McCartin will be turned into Oliver.
Will have a couple of big decisions next week though with Hobbs and SHayes on the bubble, ie; Do I bring in SHayes for Dixon? And what's the JS of Hobbs like? If I want both then I'll have to use a boost as McCartin will be turned into Oliver.
Absolutely weighing it up, be nice to have some more info before tonight 
I'd probably take him to Steele or Petracca if he's out 3 or more weeks. Could be that I take a look at Hayes and then if he scores well enough to cover just hold and assess as more information comes in.
Otherwise I'll move him to a mid premo and put Xerri in to ruck.
I'd probably take him to Steele or Petracca if he's out 3 or more weeks. Could be that I take a look at Hayes and then if he scores well enough to cover just hold and assess as more information comes in.
Otherwise I'll move him to a mid premo and put Xerri in to ruck.
