Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Babylove]

Hi Rowsus. Sorry if this has been but what are your thoughts on Rory Sloane this year? I have had a gut feeling about him all summer and keep going back to him for M3 despite his round 8 bye (I also have GAJ, Pendles & Beams). However I'm not sure why I do, and whether it's simply that I've seen more of him through the summer because my Dad's a Crows supporter and so I take more notice of Adelaide than other teams (except the Pies of course), or if there's more too it.

I know it would be more logical to go for a Liberatore (who I currently have at M3) or Rockliff or one of the West Coast midfielders because of the byes, all of whom looked good through the pre-season. But as I said I have this nagging, persistent gut feeling about him.

 

[inwhiterooms]

Where are you at with R1 now in light of the Currie news Rowsus? I recall you had Goldstein locked in a week ago much like myself. I'm certain mine will come from one of Jacobs/Minson/McEvoy, which of the 3 is anyone's guess.

Minson definitely has his nose ahead of the other two if these back rumours prove a hoax.

 

[dyii]

Hi Rowsus, I was wondering whether you have statistics about Cox's scores with NicNat playing alongside? Cox is currently in my side, but I'm concerned about whether Nicnat will take points off him, as well as his age. I'm thinking if not Cox, Minson/Jacobs (with Minson rumours I'm scared)

 

[The Saltshaker]

Hey Rowsus,

Mate youre a freak, only just joined this page but quickly becoming my fave.

Can i be your manager? Youve got SC rockstar written all over you. If you and Impromptu ever wanna do a show or article together let me know. Ill sell the concept, 20 years business development 13 in IT software/corporate sales builds up a certain resistence to rejection, and tenacity. But thats my only tie in, you guys are the ones screaming talent and should be getting paid for your genius. Call ourselves "the guru, the statistician and ciggiebutt brain" haha nah seriously you guys need to be getting your own article in one of the papers, your analysis is deep, insightful, nails the variables, sound reasoning and universally instinctive (that you know when your reading, the information is getting as close to the heart of a situation as possible without opinion or bias) and strikes a chord with those seeking some divinity when their heart and head are asking for some truth but over riding each other...

Keep up the amazing work

Ill get to my question shortly...dinner has been served

 

[The Saltshaker]

Where are you at with R1 now in light of the Currie news Rowsus? I recall you had Goldstein locked in a week ago much like myself. I'm certain mine will come from one of Jacobs/Minson/McEvoy, which of the 3 is anyone's guess.

Minson definitely has his nose ahead of the other two if these back rumours prove a hoax.

Whats the rumour? havent heard it?

 

[Rowsus]

Where are you at with R1 now in light of the Currie news Rowsus? I recall you had Goldstein locked in a week ago much like myself. I'm certain mine will come from one of Jacobs/Minson/McEvoy, which of the 3 is anyone's guess.

Minson definitely has his nose ahead of the other two if these back rumours prove a hoax.

In that time I've gone from Goldy, to NicNat, to Jacobs.
I've settled on Jacobs, but will be happy with 95, I'm not getting my hopes up and thinking 100+.
The main reason behind Jacobs was, it allowed me to turn my only Def Midpricer into a Prem.
I REALLY want NicNat, but I'm just a bit gun shy on him getting managed.

 

[benderiffic]

Whats the rumour? havent heard it?

Rumour is Minso has injured his back and will be out for 6-8 weeks. No confirmation as yet

 

[The Saltshaker]

Cheers

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, I was wondering whether you have statistics about Cox's scores with NicNat playing alongside? Cox is currently in my side, but I'm concerned about whether Nicnat will take points off him, as well as his age. I'm thinking if not Cox, Minson/Jacobs (with Minson rumours I'm scared)

Just looking at the previous 2 seasons

2012 - Cox had 12 scores of 100+, and 2 out of 2 that Nicnat didn't play, so season strike rate 54.5%, no NicNat 100%
2013 - Cox had 12 scores of 100+, and 7 out of 12 that NicNat didn't play, so season strike rate 54.5%, no NicNat 58.3%
There has been only one game in those 2 years where NicNat's game time was severly reduced (35%), Cox scored 126.

In summary, in the last 2 seasons -
Cox overall - 44 games average 109.8, 24 100+ scores, strike rate of 100+ 54.5%
Cox with Nicnat playing over 35% TOG - 30 games average 104.8, 14 100+ scores, strike rate of 100+ 46.7%
Cox with NicNat playing 35% TOG or less - 14 games average 120.5, 10 100+ scores, strike rate of 100+ 71.4%

Worrying, isn't it? Still a 105 Ruck is ok; if he can keep it up.
Cox and Nicnat together

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. Sorry if this has been but what are your thoughts on Rory Sloane this year? I have had a gut feeling about him all summer and keep going back to him for M3 despite his round 8 bye (I also have GAJ, Pendles & Beams). However I'm not sure why I do, and whether it's simply that I've seen more of him through the summer because my Dad's a Crows supporter and so I take more notice of Adelaide than other teams (except the Pies of course), or if there's more too it.

I know it would be more logical to go for a Liberatore (who I currently have at M3) or Rockliff or one of the West Coast midfielders because of the byes, all of whom looked good through the pre-season. But as I said I have this nagging, persistent gut feeling about him.

Some people are comparing Sloane with a 5th year Pendlebury. I say Pendlebury broke out 2 years before that.
Sloanes biggest problem, as far as improvement goes, is his TOG% is already high. His pts/100%TOG and dis/100%TOG seem to have plateaued. On those figures, he seems to have found his level. It doesn't mean he can't spike a year, just that over the next few seasons it's hard to see him becoming a regular 110+ player.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Mate youre a freak, only just joined this page but quickly becoming my fave.

Can i be your manager? Youve got SC rockstar written all over you. If you and Impromptu ever wanna do a show or article together let me know. Ill sell the concept, 20 years business development 13 in IT software/corporate sales builds up a certain resistence to rejection, and tenacity. But thats my only tie in, you guys are the ones screaming talent and should be getting paid for your genius. Call ourselves "the guru, the statistician and ciggiebutt brain" haha nah seriously you guys need to be getting your own article in one of the papers, your analysis is deep, insightful, nails the variables, sound reasoning and universally instinctive (that you know when your reading, the information is getting as close to the heart of a situation as possible without opinion or bias) and strikes a chord with those seeking some divinity when their heart and head are asking for some truth but over riding each other...

Keep up the amazing work

Ill get to my question shortly...dinner has been served

LOL, thanks for the kind words, Salty. It might be hard to organise a show, what with me living 20,000km's away in Denmark!
Still, you never know!
I look forward to your question, I am sure it will be a ribtickler!

 

[The Saltshaker]

My question is about structure

Ive gone

(2)2-(1)-5
(4)5-(1)-4
(1)1-(1)-2
(2)4-(1)-3

Based on selections over $450k that i hope to be keepers - midpricers - rookies.

The first bracket indicates out of those keepers the prems over $550k-$700k. The mid bracket indicates underpriced/fallen sc scorers i trust to be above $450k by seasons end.

With all the most expensive rookies coming in mid and a wealth of cheaper defensive options presenting itself do you see this structure working? I realise im missing some rookies in guts but cant bring myself to spend $200k on likes of Tom Dyson as he would need to score 110-120 to match Cunninghams 66 each week

Are you able to plot the average scores the following rookies need to make $200k based on their initial cost

Or using a standard PIT figure for their positions vs their cost how many weeks to reach 200k

Hogan (fwd) 217300 estimated start rd 4, bye rnd 10
Tyson (mid) 216800 bye round 10
KK (def)197300 estimated start rnd 2, bye round 8
McDonald (def) 182300 bye rnd 8
Aish (mid) 187300 bye rnd 10
Michie (mid) 172600 bye round 10
Polec (mid) 172600 bye rnd 9
Rohan (fwd) 176200 bye rnd 10
Sheed (mid) 167300 bye rnd 9
Lennon (fwd) 162300 estimated start rnd 5, bye rnd 8
Laidler (def) 161800 bye rnd 10
Ellis (mid) 159000 bye rnd 9
McDonough (fwd) 155300 bye rnd 8
Dunstan (mid) $132300 bye rnd 10
Cunningham (mid) 123900 bye rnd 10
Langford (def)123900 bye rnd 9
Currie (ruck) 123900 bye rnd 8
Langdon (def) 117300 bye rnd 8
Impey (fwd) 117300 bye rnd 9
JKH (fwd) 117300 bye rnd 10
Georgiou (def) 102400 bye rnd 10

 

[Rowsus]

I have to go out for about 4 hours, Salty. I will tackle it when I get back.
Is there a time frame to the question?
ie. to make $200k by their bye, or by round 12? etc

 

[IDIG]

Just looking at the previous 2 seasons

2012 - Cox had 12 scores of 100+, and 2 out of 2 that Nicnat didn't play, so season strike rate 54.5%, no NicNat 100%
2013 - Cox had 12 scores of 100+, and 7 out of 12 that NicNat didn't play, so season strike rate 54.5%, no NicNat 58.3%
There has been only one game in those 2 years where NicNat's game time was severly reduced (35%), Cox scored 126.

In summary, in the last 2 seasons -
Cox overall - 44 games average 109.8, 24 100+ scores, strike rate of 100+ 54.5%
Cox with Nicnat playing over 35% TOG - 30 games average 104.8, 14 100+ scores, strike rate of 100+ 46.7%
Cox with NicNat playing 35% TOG or less - 14 games average 120.5, 10 100+ scores, strike rate of 100+ 71.4%

Worrying, isn't it? Still a 105 Ruck is ok; if he can keep it up.
Cox and Nicnat together

Cheers mate, was hoping someone had asked this. I don't know how to feel about Cox anymore lol

 

[The Saltshaker]

Is it wrong to trade pavlich for Trealor?
I never liked pavlich this season, I just jumped on the bandwagon because everyone was praising his value.
I've always liked trealor, and he was my number1 breakout candidate during the preseason, but I wasn't courageous enough to pick him due to the disaster I had last season.
Traelor also has a great draw early on and a good bye round.
Thoughts?


thanks

If Pav had kicked straighter would have been 100+ easy

 

[maken7]

Hey Rowsus

Not sure which two to start out of:

Aish, Michie, X.Ellis, Dunstan and L.McDonald?

Currently have L.McDonald and Dunstan on the pine...

 

[The Saltshaker]

I have to go out for about 4 hours, Salty. I will tackle it when I get back.
Is there a time frame to the question?
ie. to make $200k by their bye, or by round 12? etc

Yeah sorry was prob the same question twice, let me rephrase using their PIT avg you have for rookies vs starting price if you can plot 5, 6, 7, (8) (9) (10), 11, 12 rounds or something like that.

*brackets indicate bye rounds

Ill go back to the question and add some details cost, position, bye round to save you referencing

Cheers

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi rowsus

I have two questions.

1. In my defense I have hurn however I am considering bringing in for hurn hibberd or another premium. Do you think it is a wise move given hurn preseason form?

2. Like most coaches Langdon is sitting as an emergency on my bench. I was considering of removing either Langford or McDonald and playing the floating donut. Is it worth chasing the points even though my team is going ok?

Many thanks

 

[Beached az]

In that time I've gone from Goldy, to NicBat, to Jacobs.
I've settled on Jacobs, but will be happy with 95, I'm not getting my hopes up and thinking 100+.
The main reason behind Jacobs was, it allowed me to turn my only Def Midpricer into a Prem.
I REALLY want NicNat, but I'm just a bit gun shy on him getting managed.

Just curious, why have you gone away from Goldstein? Team structure or thinking Currie will take some of his hit-outs? Asking as I have Goldstein (and Currie).

Also, is there anywhere I can post to get you or Jay to quickly check my team for holes like you did last week? PM you?

Thanks Rowsus

 

[Bridgebuff]

Just looking at the previous 2 seasons

2012 - Cox had 12 scores of 100+, and 2 out of 2 that Nicnat didn't play, so season strike rate 54.5%, no NicNat 100%
2013 - Cox had 12 scores of 100+, and 7 out of 12 that NicNat didn't play, so season strike rate 54.5%, no NicNat 58.3%
There has been only one game in those 2 years where NicNat's game time was severly reduced (35%), Cox scored 126.

In summary, in the last 2 seasons -
Cox overall - 44 games average 109.8, 24 100+ scores, strike rate of 100+ 54.5%
Cox with Nicnat playing over 35% TOG - 30 games average 104.8, 14 100+ scores, strike rate of 100+ 46.7%
Cox with NicNat playing 35% TOG or less - 14 games average 120.5, 10 100+ scores, strike rate of 100+ 71.4%

Worrying, isn't it? Still a 105 Ruck is ok; if he can keep it up.
Cox and Nicnat together

I did some comparison on Cox & Naitanui individually and as a team:
Since 2010 Cox & Naitanui played 75 games as partners and Cox played 15 games solo (Cox was last injured in 2009). Cox' average for the 75 games together is 98, when he played alone it is a staggering 116.
Last year it was 89(11) and 105(11), 2012 109(20) and 141(2), 2011 102(22) 149(2), 2010 88(22) N/A(0)

Taking into account that Dean is nearly 33 I think you pick him at your own peril unless you think Nic Nat will go down with an injury again soon.