Position 2023: Ruck Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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I've probably only seriously considered four starting picks in the rucks to this point:
English - because he's still coming into his prime years for a ruck and has shown that when he's on, he can rack up 20+ disposals and a bunch of marks playing on the ball as well as rucking. 5 games at 120+ to start last year showed us what he is capable of: he's the one I most fear getting 150s when he's not in the team.
Marshall - because if he gets a full year as a solo ruck he has shown he can go 110, so he's cheap for that kind of output.
Grundy - to be honest, I don't think he's been quite the same after that neck injury in 2021. He's still clearly a capable footballer and far less use as a back or a forward than Gawn (he's also 3 years younger), so surely he gets a good chunk of ruck time with an awesome midfield at his feet? Getting to 105 is probably enough for an R2 that doesn't break the bank.
Cameron - because he's really a forward that you can start in the ruck line so the pass mark is lower. Has shown 100+ scoring as a solo ruck so it's there, just a question of whether he can pull out a good chunk of the season doing it.
The rest? Not for me.
Unless there's a playing rookie ruck in Round 1, in which case I'll probably pick him. I always do
English - because he's still coming into his prime years for a ruck and has shown that when he's on, he can rack up 20+ disposals and a bunch of marks playing on the ball as well as rucking. 5 games at 120+ to start last year showed us what he is capable of: he's the one I most fear getting 150s when he's not in the team.
Marshall - because if he gets a full year as a solo ruck he has shown he can go 110, so he's cheap for that kind of output.
Grundy - to be honest, I don't think he's been quite the same after that neck injury in 2021. He's still clearly a capable footballer and far less use as a back or a forward than Gawn (he's also 3 years younger), so surely he gets a good chunk of ruck time with an awesome midfield at his feet? Getting to 105 is probably enough for an R2 that doesn't break the bank.
Cameron - because he's really a forward that you can start in the ruck line so the pass mark is lower. Has shown 100+ scoring as a solo ruck so it's there, just a question of whether he can pull out a good chunk of the season doing it.
The rest? Not for me.
Unless there's a playing rookie ruck in Round 1, in which case I'll probably pick him. I always do
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I've probably only seriously considered four starting picks in the rucks to this point:
English - because he's still coming into his prime years for a ruck and has shown that when he's on, he can rack up 20+ disposals and a bunch of marks playing on the ball as well as rucking. 5 games at 120+ to start last year showed us what he is capable of: he's the one I most fear getting 150s when he's not in the team.
Marshall - because if he gets a full year as a solo ruck he has shown he can go 110, so he's cheap for that kind of output.
Grundy - to be honest, I don't think he's been quite the same after that neck injury in 2021. He's still clearly a capable footballer and far less use as a back or a forward than Gawn (he's also 3 years younger), so surely he gets a good chunk of ruck time with an awesome midfield at his feet? Getting to 105 is probably enough for an R2 that doesn't break the bank.
Cameron - because he's really a forward that you can start in the ruck line so the pass mark is lower. Has shown 100+ scoring as a solo ruck so it's there, just a question of whether he can pull out a good chunk of the season doing it.
The rest? Not for me.
Unless there's a playing rookie ruck in Round 1, in which case I'll probably pick him. I always do
English - because he's still coming into his prime years for a ruck and has shown that when he's on, he can rack up 20+ disposals and a bunch of marks playing on the ball as well as rucking. 5 games at 120+ to start last year showed us what he is capable of: he's the one I most fear getting 150s when he's not in the team.
Marshall - because if he gets a full year as a solo ruck he has shown he can go 110, so he's cheap for that kind of output.
Grundy - to be honest, I don't think he's been quite the same after that neck injury in 2021. He's still clearly a capable footballer and far less use as a back or a forward than Gawn (he's also 3 years younger), so surely he gets a good chunk of ruck time with an awesome midfield at his feet? Getting to 105 is probably enough for an R2 that doesn't break the bank.
Cameron - because he's really a forward that you can start in the ruck line so the pass mark is lower. Has shown 100+ scoring as a solo ruck so it's there, just a question of whether he can pull out a good chunk of the season doing it.
The rest? Not for me.
Unless there's a playing rookie ruck in Round 1, in which case I'll probably pick him. I always do
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Would like to know what others think of this.
I’m currently looking at starting Witts and ROB.
Reasoning: Obviously all the rucks this year seem to have some kind of issue with them. I think if I start these two I might be able to get away with no trades in the rucks. Witts has a very good injury history excluding that ACL and I can’t remember the last time ROB got injured.
There’s not much upside in the picks but I’d rather pick these two then let’s say an English and Marshall where I’ll likely have to trade at some point.
I’m currently looking at starting Witts and ROB.
Reasoning: Obviously all the rucks this year seem to have some kind of issue with them. I think if I start these two I might be able to get away with no trades in the rucks. Witts has a very good injury history excluding that ACL and I can’t remember the last time ROB got injured.
There’s not much upside in the picks but I’d rather pick these two then let’s say an English and Marshall where I’ll likely have to trade at some point.
I think there are much worse strategies, especially in the ruck, although with six extra trades versus a few years back, I think we are able to take a little more injury risk than we used to.
If you are keen to avoid the revolving door in the ruck (which does suck), one approach could be to start those you think present the best scoring/value options, and if they fail, shift them on to Witts/ROB.
If you are keen to avoid the revolving door in the ruck (which does suck), one approach could be to start those you think present the best scoring/value options, and if they fail, shift them on to Witts/ROB.
I'm definitely interested in Witts.
I think the premium threshold this year is 110+. Moving that threshold is actually very important.
Grundy/Gawn effectively cancels each other out, I actually think both could potentially still be premium at that 110+ level but I'd be very surprised if they can be 125+ level scorers of past years.
I think Witts ticks the box of hitting 110+ and is a great pick.
ROB I don't love, he just isn't a great player and I just can't see the upside. My problem with him is let's say he's a 105 scorer. The only way that works as a starting pick is if no one else scores that 110+ keeper range. If we get two 110+ keepers then he fails as a pick because others will have those players and you've got no value from your pick. I'd say I'd be more surprised if ROB averaged 115 than if he averaged 90. Especially given they've got Thilthorpe who has to start being developed in some fashion this year.
Ultimately I'd be surprised if none of Witts, Gawn, Grundy, English, NicNat, Marshall or Darcy go 110+ this year.
Personally I really want some value to pop up. I don't love Cameron as a forward but I'll probably take him at this point if things don't change up.
I think the premium threshold this year is 110+. Moving that threshold is actually very important.
Grundy/Gawn effectively cancels each other out, I actually think both could potentially still be premium at that 110+ level but I'd be very surprised if they can be 125+ level scorers of past years.
I think Witts ticks the box of hitting 110+ and is a great pick.
ROB I don't love, he just isn't a great player and I just can't see the upside. My problem with him is let's say he's a 105 scorer. The only way that works as a starting pick is if no one else scores that 110+ keeper range. If we get two 110+ keepers then he fails as a pick because others will have those players and you've got no value from your pick. I'd say I'd be more surprised if ROB averaged 115 than if he averaged 90. Especially given they've got Thilthorpe who has to start being developed in some fashion this year.
Ultimately I'd be surprised if none of Witts, Gawn, Grundy, English, NicNat, Marshall or Darcy go 110+ this year.
Personally I really want some value to pop up. I don't love Cameron as a forward but I'll probably take him at this point if things don't change up.
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ROB:
2022:
Hitouts: 36.9 (Elite)- 2nd
HTA: 29.8% (Average/Bordering on Below Average)
Ruck contests attended: 79.5 (Elite)- 1st
Marks= 2.7 (Average)- Gawn and English recorded double that figure
Disposal Efficiency and Kicking Efficiency= Below average
Disposals= Average
Tackles= 4 (Elite)
Last year O’Brien recorded his highest hitout to advantage rate (29.8%). Will need to push this into the thirties whilst contributing more around the ground to push a 105-110 average. Unlikely to provide a solid return on investment when cash be used more efficiently elsewhere. If he starts the season recording sub 100 scores comparative to English and co getting off to fast starts, will you continue to persist with O’Brien?
Benchmarking above filtered by rucks and found at https://www.afl.com.au/stats/leader...kedAverages&playerOneId=null&playerTwoId=null
2022:
Hitouts: 36.9 (Elite)- 2nd
HTA: 29.8% (Average/Bordering on Below Average)
Ruck contests attended: 79.5 (Elite)- 1st
Marks= 2.7 (Average)- Gawn and English recorded double that figure
Disposal Efficiency and Kicking Efficiency= Below average
Disposals= Average
Tackles= 4 (Elite)
Last year O’Brien recorded his highest hitout to advantage rate (29.8%). Will need to push this into the thirties whilst contributing more around the ground to push a 105-110 average. Unlikely to provide a solid return on investment when cash be used more efficiently elsewhere. If he starts the season recording sub 100 scores comparative to English and co getting off to fast starts, will you continue to persist with O’Brien?
Benchmarking above filtered by rucks and found at https://www.afl.com.au/stats/leader...kedAverages&playerOneId=null&playerTwoId=null
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Thanks for the putting the time in to respond. Can’t see me going near him now. His durability and role is awesome but the upside isn’t really there.
On my radar at the moment now is:
Witts, Darcy, Grundy, Marshall, Cameron and Lycett.
Not interested in English. Maybe if he was 500k, but at 581k with his concussion history? No Thanks. There are better options out there.
On my radar at the moment now is:
Witts, Darcy, Grundy, Marshall, Cameron and Lycett.
Not interested in English. Maybe if he was 500k, but at 581k with his concussion history? No Thanks. There are better options out there.
