Position 2023: Ruck Discussion

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#61
On Nicnat, any reports from anyone on his health this preseason? Still only 31. If he can repeat 2021, wow!
Not much on him but sounds fit enough.

In the ruck, Bailey Williams and Cal Jamieson are fighting for the support role alongside Nic Naitanui, who was due to play 40-50 minutes of Wednesday's match simulation.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/873378/-no-pressure-on-young-eagle-veterans-could-shift-to-defence

All-Australian stars Jeremy McGovern, Ellliot Yeo and Nic Naitanui have also been in fine touch during match simulation since the Christmas break, raising hopes they can put interrupted campaigns behind them.
https://www.westcoasteagles.com.au/news/1264785/new-era-coming-for-evolving-eagles-simpson
 
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#66
Grundy has to compete with Gawn, AND Oliver, Petracca and Brayshaw for points from his own team, as well as the opposition.
The way Grundy plays I actually think compete is the wrong word.

Gawn is the issue but having Oliver, Petracca, Viney and Brayshaw at his feet will almost certainly include his ruck effectiveness.

He's also an excellent link up player around the ground and being on a team that has a lot more ball and quality players that link up with each other can't hurt him. His best seasons came when the Pies had the Treloar, Crisp (at times), Phillips, Pendles, Sidebottom, De Goey and Adams group through the midfield, basically the more talent around him the better.

I still don't love the pick, I think he should actually be their main ruck as keeping Gawn fresh for finals and Gawn being a MUCH better forward are both strong considerations but that will require them winning games so they can have the luxuries. There's also a very real chance of a 50/50 split and Grundy was always a work the other ruck into the ground guy, which may still happen with Gawn but also may not given it would be a different style.

I definitely think there's a case for him being the top ruck but I personally think there's several more negative scenarios that are likely than the positive scenarios. Not helped that his durability has fallen off the last two years as well.

I'll happily trade him in if he proves it but I just think the upside narrative is far easier on several other rucks this year.
 
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#67
Don’t even think about him … love him but way too much risk/ misses too many games & TOG has always been an issue/ can’t play big minutes
I do wonder if having a kid over the o***eason might be a source of motivation that he's clearly been sorely lacking the last couple of years. I'll definitely consider him if he looks fit in the preseason, one of the positives of NicNat is it's very easy to tell if he's fit or not just by looking at him as he carries a lack of fitness very poorly. For a lot of people having a kid can be a real driving force, especially given it's his last couple of years to really show the example.

He's definitely starting at the back of my list but his upside is still exceptional. Would help his cause significantly if some genuine cover were to pop up that lessens the missed games risk.
 
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#68
I do wonder if having a kid over the o***eason might be a source of motivation that he's clearly been sorely lacking the last couple of years. I'll definitely consider him if he looks fit in the preseason, one of the positives of NicNat is it's very easy to tell if he's fit or not just by looking at him as he carries a lack of fitness very poorly. For a lot of people having a kid can be a real driving force, especially given it's his last couple of years to really show the example.

He's definitely starting at the back of my list but his upside is still exceptional. Would help his cause significantly if some genuine cover were to pop up that lessens the missed games risk.
I guess you'll have to separate the words "off" and "season" so you don't get arbitrarily censored for using the extremely profane abbreviation of F.F.S lol. I'm not complaining, it just does seem a bit extreme.
 
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#70
Surely the filter can be set to apply only to that series of characters with a space on either side?

Otherwise it will pick up upper-class to***, lovers' ti***, drinking a couple of Du***, having dinner with the Bosho*** etc.
There'll be bluebirds over
The white cli*** of Dover
Tomorrow
Just you wait and see
I'll never forget the people I met
Braving those angry skies
I remember well as the shadows fell
The light of hope in their eyes
And though I'm far away
I still can hear them say
Bombs up
But when the dawn comes up
There'll be bluebirds over
The white cli*** of Dover
Tomorrow
Just you wait and see
There'll be love and laughter
And peace ever after
Tomorrow
When the world is free
The shepherd will tend his sheep
The valley will bloom again
And Jimmy will go to sleep
In his own little room again
There'll be bluebirds over
The white cli*** of Dover
Tomorrow
Just you wait and see
There'll be bluebirds over
The white cli*** of Dover
Tomorrow
Just you wait and see
*** LOL
 
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#74
Even Marshall I'm not big on personally, think even if Campbell and Hayes aren't round 1 candidates there's a very good chance they blood Max Heath, had a pretty good year in the twos.
Having a look at Ross Lyon and rucks:

2007 - Rix played 17, Clarke played 10 and Brooks played 2. Suggests a 2nd ruck was rarely used.
2008 - King played 22 games, Gardiner played 9 and Rix 1. 2nd ruck in half the games.
2009 - King played 19, McEvoy played 11 and Gardiner played 20. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2010 - King played 6, McEvoy played 10, Stanley played 7 and Gardiner 22. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2011 - McEvoy played 22, Stanley 2 and Gardiner 1. No 2nd ruck basically.
2012 - Sandi played 14, Clarke 15 and Griffin 13. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2013 - Sandi played 10, Clarke played 17, Griffin 7, Moller 1 and Hannath 12. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2014 - Sandi played 23 and Clarke played 21 with other rucks playing 6 games. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2015 - Sandi played 23, Clarke 14 and Griffin 8. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2016 - Sandi played 5, Clarke 13, Griffin 13 and others played 7. 2nd ruck very common.
2017 - Sandi played 10, Darcy 8 and Griffin 7. Almost no 2nd ruck
2018 - Sandi played 11, Jones 5, Darcy 7 and others 5. Basically no 2nd ruck again.
2019 - Sandi played 6, Jones 1, Darcy 11 and Lobb 15. Lobb was a 2nd ruck but not a genuine ruck, so basically no 2nd ruck.

So basically he either seems to go with 2 rucks or 1 ruck on a season by season basis, I'd hazard to guess that if Gardiner had been fit he'd have always played with Saints. Interestingly it was the final 3 years when he had a young Darcy (who was AFL ready) and Sandi where he actually went two rucks the least, to be fair neither of them can play forward like Gardiner could. Also of interest was how much he played Clarke (who was a very good player when fit) and Griffin (also very solid) alongside Sandi.

Ultimately my takeaway is the first ruck doesn't seem to dictate whether he plays two rucks, Sandi and King were both great one out rucks but were also when he most played a 2nd ruck, basically if he thinks one of the 2nd rucks is best 22 then he plays them and if he doesn't, then he doesn't. It also seems to really help if that 2nd ruck can play well as a forward which seemed to limit Darcy's chances a lot.

Looking at the Saints you've got Campbell, who is a 32 year old journeyman backup ruck who doesn't offer much as a forward. I'd say if he's playing then Marshall is probably the 2nd ruck and he's worthless if that's the case anyway. Hayes is a perfect 2nd ruck, not big enough to lead the ruck but showed to be a very useful forward in his few games and dangerous at the contest. He's the ideal partner.

Heath is probably the biggest question, soon to be 21 year old genuine ruck who is pretty physical from what I understand. Probably could use another year of development but there's a case for doing that at AFL level, especially as they need to cover forwards and Marshall is a legitimately good forward.

At the end of it, I still think Marshall is a must watch this preseason, ideally all the rucks are fit come round 1 so we can get an actual indicator of his spot in the side. For mine he's the single best prospect of going 120+ this year if everything falls right but he's also got so many question marks that 95 or less is just as likely.

Ahhhh rucks!
 
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#75
Hi @wogitalia I’ve followed your posts for a couple of years (very knowledgeable and insightful). My concerns with Marshall are the change to the sub rule (which could make clubs more inclined to have a second ruck) plus the lack of other FWD options for the saints with King and Hayes not fit (mostly this). They will possibly need Marshall inside 50 more than in the ruck. What do you think?
 
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#76
Having a look at Ross Lyon and rucks:

2007 - Rix played 17, Clarke played 10 and Brooks played 2. Suggests a 2nd ruck was rarely used.
2008 - King played 22 games, Gardiner played 9 and Rix 1. 2nd ruck in half the games.
2009 - King played 19, McEvoy played 11 and Gardiner played 20. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2010 - King played 6, McEvoy played 10, Stanley played 7 and Gardiner 22. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2011 - McEvoy played 22, Stanley 2 and Gardiner 1. No 2nd ruck basically.
2012 - Sandi played 14, Clarke 15 and Griffin 13. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2013 - Sandi played 10, Clarke played 17, Griffin 7, Moller 1 and Hannath 12. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2014 - Sandi played 23 and Clarke played 21 with other rucks playing 6 games. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2015 - Sandi played 23, Clarke 14 and Griffin 8. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2016 - Sandi played 5, Clarke 13, Griffin 13 and others played 7. 2nd ruck very common.
2017 - Sandi played 10, Darcy 8 and Griffin 7. Almost no 2nd ruck
2018 - Sandi played 11, Jones 5, Darcy 7 and others 5. Basically no 2nd ruck again.
2019 - Sandi played 6, Jones 1, Darcy 11 and Lobb 15. Lobb was a 2nd ruck but not a genuine ruck, so basically no 2nd ruck.

So basically he either seems to go with 2 rucks or 1 ruck on a season by season basis, I'd hazard to guess that if Gardiner had been fit he'd have always played with Saints. Interestingly it was the final 3 years when he had a young Darcy (who was AFL ready) and Sandi where he actually went two rucks the least, to be fair neither of them can play forward like Gardiner could. Also of interest was how much he played Clarke (who was a very good player when fit) and Griffin (also very solid) alongside Sandi.

Ultimately my takeaway is the first ruck doesn't seem to dictate whether he plays two rucks, Sandi and King were both great one out rucks but were also when he most played a 2nd ruck, basically if he thinks one of the 2nd rucks is best 22 then he plays them and if he doesn't, then he doesn't. It also seems to really help if that 2nd ruck can play well as a forward which seemed to limit Darcy's chances a lot.

Looking at the Saints you've got Campbell, who is a 32 year old journeyman backup ruck who doesn't offer much as a forward. I'd say if he's playing then Marshall is probably the 2nd ruck and he's worthless if that's the case anyway. Hayes is a perfect 2nd ruck, not big enough to lead the ruck but showed to be a very useful forward in his few games and dangerous at the contest. He's the ideal partner.

Heath is probably the biggest question, soon to be 21 year old genuine ruck who is pretty physical from what I understand. Probably could use another year of development but there's a case for doing that at AFL level, especially as they need to cover forwards and Marshall is a legitimately good forward.

At the end of it, I still think Marshall is a must watch this preseason, ideally all the rucks are fit come round 1 so we can get an actual indicator of his spot in the side. For mine he's the single best prospect of going 120+ this year if everything falls right but he's also got so many question marks that 95 or less is just as likely.

Ahhhh rucks!
Very nice detailed analysis, was thinking the same today re: Ahhh rucks lol and had Marshall and Grundy, with Cameron and Jackson at one stage, thought I'd just put Witts and English as my R1 and R2.... all I had to do to achieve that was take Cameron out of the fwd line and replace him with Fyfe. When I look at my Rucks now I just feel like I have some peace of mind instead of worrying what Marshall or Grundy might do and how much ruck time they'll actually get etc. Just gotta hope English can stay out there.
 
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#77
Having a look at Ross Lyon and rucks:

2007 - Rix played 17, Clarke played 10 and Brooks played 2. Suggests a 2nd ruck was rarely used.
2008 - King played 22 games, Gardiner played 9 and Rix 1. 2nd ruck in half the games.
2009 - King played 19, McEvoy played 11 and Gardiner played 20. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2010 - King played 6, McEvoy played 10, Stanley played 7 and Gardiner 22. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2011 - McEvoy played 22, Stanley 2 and Gardiner 1. No 2nd ruck basically.
2012 - Sandi played 14, Clarke 15 and Griffin 13. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2013 - Sandi played 10, Clarke played 17, Griffin 7, Moller 1 and Hannath 12. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2014 - Sandi played 23 and Clarke played 21 with other rucks playing 6 games. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2015 - Sandi played 23, Clarke 14 and Griffin 8. 2nd ruck prevalent.
2016 - Sandi played 5, Clarke 13, Griffin 13 and others played 7. 2nd ruck very common.
2017 - Sandi played 10, Darcy 8 and Griffin 7. Almost no 2nd ruck
2018 - Sandi played 11, Jones 5, Darcy 7 and others 5. Basically no 2nd ruck again.
2019 - Sandi played 6, Jones 1, Darcy 11 and Lobb 15. Lobb was a 2nd ruck but not a genuine ruck, so basically no 2nd ruck.

So basically he either seems to go with 2 rucks or 1 ruck on a season by season basis, I'd hazard to guess that if Gardiner had been fit he'd have always played with Saints. Interestingly it was the final 3 years when he had a young Darcy (who was AFL ready) and Sandi where he actually went two rucks the least, to be fair neither of them can play forward like Gardiner could. Also of interest was how much he played Clarke (who was a very good player when fit) and Griffin (also very solid) alongside Sandi.

Ultimately my takeaway is the first ruck doesn't seem to dictate whether he plays two rucks, Sandi and King were both great one out rucks but were also when he most played a 2nd ruck, basically if he thinks one of the 2nd rucks is best 22 then he plays them and if he doesn't, then he doesn't. It also seems to really help if that 2nd ruck can play well as a forward which seemed to limit Darcy's chances a lot.

Looking at the Saints you've got Campbell, who is a 32 year old journeyman backup ruck who doesn't offer much as a forward. I'd say if he's playing then Marshall is probably the 2nd ruck and he's worthless if that's the case anyway. Hayes is a perfect 2nd ruck, not big enough to lead the ruck but showed to be a very useful forward in his few games and dangerous at the contest. He's the ideal partner.

Heath is probably the biggest question, soon to be 21 year old genuine ruck who is pretty physical from what I understand. Probably could use another year of development but there's a case for doing that at AFL level, especially as they need to cover forwards and Marshall is a legitimately good forward.

At the end of it, I still think Marshall is a must watch this preseason, ideally all the rucks are fit come round 1 so we can get an actual indicator of his spot in the side. For mine he's the single best prospect of going 120+ this year if everything falls right but he's also got so many question marks that 95 or less is just as likely.

Ahhhh rucks!
Very nice detailed analysis, was thinking the same today re: Ahhh rucks lol and had Marshall and Grundy, with Cameron and Jackson at one stage, thought I'd just put Witts and English as my R1 and R2.... all I had to do to achieve that was take Cameron out of the fwd line and replace him with Fyfe. When I look at my Rucks now I just feel like I have some peace of mind instead of worrying what Marshall or Grundy might do and how much ruck time they'll actually get etc. Just gotta hope English can stay out there.
Great detailed work Woggie. Challenge is Sandi was so injury prone, hence some times game count drops and 2/3rd rucks get more game time. in 2014/15 he average 107-109 with 2nd ruck. His best year 2010 when he ave 114 was with a 2nd ruck. Even in 2012 when his game count dropped he still ave well.

What this tells me is that Sandi was not inhibited by the 2nd ruck and allowed to score well. Need to remember Lyon's is ruthless, he didn't play the kids and clearly if Sandi was fit, he received a lot of ruck time to score well (although his size helped!).

What impacted Sand scoring was when he only played 5-7 games in the year. Suggests even when missing games (played +10) he wasn't managed when back. That fits Ross Lyon profile of how he managed the team, maximum short-term output with no longer term player management thinking.

I like the ruck analysis, didn't realise Campbell quite old, although maybe still a risk. Hayes I loved his aggression in the forward line. Think the sub rule is not an issue for Marshall, if anything helps him as it is likely the 2nd ruck is subbed out.

English, Marshall, Lycett are the ones on my radar. Feel Gawn Grundy 50/50 will drag both down, with Gawn circa 100-105 and Grundy lower, just some quick thoughts. Don't love Lycett, could be a 100 player, midfield is upgrading around him with Rozee and JHF now getting more mid time since he last played.
 

Darkie

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#78
I haven’t followed the recent discussion on the sub rule influencing ruck selections. What is the latest chat on that?

Is the argument that a second ruck is more likely to be started, as they can be subbed out for a quicker/more versatile player if they play poorly or are not required to ruck much?
 
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#79
I haven’t followed the recent discussion on the sub rule influencing ruck selections. What is the latest chat on that?

Is the argument that a second ruck is more likely to be started, as they can be subbed out for a quicker/more versatile player if they play poorly or are not required to ruck much?
I think the sub influence is going to relatively minimal, but definitely for teams with two decent rucks, seems to me they would play both and sub one off in Q4.

I think most of the time the sub won't be used until Q4 anyway, and 30-45% of the time there will be an actual injury to use the sub on too.

To me there would only be some niche relevant cases; Cameron/Cox (surely Cox gets subbed off 1st anyway), Marshall/Campbell (again, Campbell the candidate there) etc. Not as if Dees would sub one of Grawndy off, same with Freo and Darcy/Jackson.
 

Darkie

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#80
I think the sub influence is going to relatively minimal, but definitely for teams with two decent rucks, seems to me they would play both and sub one off in Q4.

I think most of the time the sub won't be used until Q4 anyway, and 30-45% of the time there will be an actual injury to use the sub on too.

To me there would only be some niche relevant cases; Cameron/Cox (surely Cox gets subbed off 1st anyway), Marshall/Campbell (again, Campbell the candidate there) etc. Not as if Dees would sub one of Grawndy off, same with Freo and Darcy/Jackson.
Very helpful, thank you!
 
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