I'm very bullish on all 3 of the GWS mids that you listed, Kingsley was the midfield/stoppage coach at Richmond and I would be gobsmacked if doesn't play those 3 as the 1st midfield rotation.
I get your point about being hesitant in loading up on the forwards, but I think comparing last year to this year carries assumptions that possibly aren't relevant.
I assume that your 5 starting keepers last year included Cogs and Brodie, maybe F4 & F5? Those 2 cost a combined 477k and delivered an average of 203 between them. My guess is that those who started them were hopeful that they would be good stepping stones, the fact that they proved to be keepers was a huge bonus, both in pts for their positions, the money saved and then spent on a better starting side combined with the added value of at least 4 trades saved in upgrading them. A very small price to pay for a lack of flexibility, hell hindsight says that Brodie should have been flicked for Parker at his bye who averaged 10 PPG more for the rest of the season (just an example).
As you highlighted, all of the 4 mentioned for this year have durability issues (as well as say Fyfe & McLean) I would think that the chances of 1 of those 6 going down in the season is extremely high, I can see a revolving door scenario being a real possibility. What I don't see however is Fyfe and McLean becoming keepers, there is a world where it could happen but the chances of both happening are extremely thin, obviously a huge win should it eventuate.
Cogs, Rozee and Taranto each share the rnd 15 bye and one of them could be sideways traded to someone who has gained DPP. So I think that the flexibility issue could be a bit overplayed, if we do end up that way then it's because 2 x cheapies became keepers and I'll take that everyday.
The problem is that Fyfe and Ziebell (even McLean) all offer similar prospects to Brodie/Coniglio last year so if you're taking them it's problematic if also selecting 3 or more of the premium plays.
I think that Gawn, Bont, B. Smith, Parker, Petracca and Boak all stand out very strongly as potential DPP guys, any of them that get it and it's possible they're must have types. Yes you can sideways but it's always difficult to do as it basically needs to wait until the team is finished which often means missing all the value of why players get position changes in the first place.
It really hurt my season so I'm definitely not going to try and do it again this year, if it happens it happens but I'm not chasing it.
Not sure why people are thinking Taranto will be a 105-115 player. Yes, he'll have some big games but I've no doubt he'll have sub 80 games thrown in there at times, his disposal is terrible and a new club won't fix that. He's had season played as a pure mid and in 6 years has gone 100+ only once and that was only just.
This combined with going to a team that plays very team orientated football where mids especially at Richmond have never been renowned SC scoring options, I'm struggling to see it. I still think he's worth a forward option but if he was a mid only I'd imagine he'd be close to 0% ownership even if people thought he could still get to 115.
He's never had a season as a pure mid except 2019 where he averaged 102 in his third season, which is very impressive.
I don't disagree with you but the idea of a full season of pure mid definitely has 105 potential. There's definitely a factor that Richmond might be able to help him slightly although not sure I agree as GWS had a better list than Richmond for most of his career they just had god awful coaching to handicap it.
I'm also not huge on the Richmond factor, I think we all underrate how good a coach Dimma was because the Tigers overcame a lack of talent compared to many sides and still won flags, their midfielders with talent (Prestia, Martin and Cotchin) all scored very well. That they won flags playing the likes of Edwards, Lambert (feel bad lumping him in, his work rate was absurd and he played a team role), McIntosh, Pickett, Caddy, Grigg, Graham and Ellis through there in prime roles is a genuine credit to Dimma. The fact that group never scored well has far more to do with their lack of ability than Richmond's style, imo.
It's a factor but it's not going to stop Taranto or Hopper from producing if they're fit, it might even help them given how they butcher it and how badly the GWS finesse and possession style repeatedly exposed them both.
I disagree with the new club wont fix it, he is a contested player and playing a pure inside mid role, with the likes of bolton, rioli, short etc running past him i see him handballing much more than kicking. Gws didn’t have these elite receivers who can run and carry like the tigers do. I see 105-115 ave from him purely from those to factors.
This would apply if he wasn't just as bad, if not worse, at handballing than he is kicking. Let's not also act like that group is significantly better than Kelly, Whitfield, Cumming, Williams and Coniglio et al running past for the handball either, GWS had talent and he's had opportunities to feed them.
If Dimma fixes his disposal he deserves coach of the year because he's broken at every level.
That said, it really doesn't matter because he tackles like a maniac, wins contested pill and Richmond's chaos style of hacking it forward probably actually helps him as that's already his natural style but this time his team is built around it and ready for it, even if just 2 or 3 of his hacks turn into ineffective disposals instead of clangers then he pushes the 105 range.
He's really solid value as a pick. I personally have him 4th of the Rozee, Coniglio and Dunkley group simply because I think his ceiling is that 105-110 range while the other three are well above that because they've got much more class but I think Taranto is a really strong option and it wouldn't surprise me if he beat any of those 3 given the durability issues they have (and role concerns for Rozee & Coniglio).
I really can't fault him as a pick this year.