Position 2023: Ruck Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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No doubt Darcy is a worry, but let's compare the pair!!!
Looking at the last 2 seasons, including finals:
English: 38/49 Games (77.6%) - 100+ scores 14 (28.6%) ave 123 - 120+ scores 8 (16.3%) ave 135
Darcy: 42/46 Games (91.3%) - 100+ scores 21 (45.7%) ave 133 - 120+ scores 13 (28.3%) ave 148
If you knew nothing of either player, you would wonder why anyone was considering English, when Darcy $18,800 cheaper!!!
Looking at the last 2 seasons, including finals:
English: 38/49 Games (77.6%) - 100+ scores 14 (28.6%) ave 123 - 120+ scores 8 (16.3%) ave 135
Darcy: 42/46 Games (91.3%) - 100+ scores 21 (45.7%) ave 133 - 120+ scores 13 (28.3%) ave 148
If you knew nothing of either player, you would wonder why anyone was considering English, when Darcy $18,800 cheaper!!!
Getting banged up in a game and going to the bench or sitting forward is just as bad as missing a game, was the difference between Darcy averaging 100 and 120 last year.
Hard to look too deep into numbers like this though, English wasn't a first choice Ruck for large parts of the data and we know Darcy isn't Solo himself anymore.
Hard to look too deep into numbers like this though, English wasn't a first choice Ruck for large parts of the data and we know Darcy isn't Solo himself anymore.
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If any of this ruck group could promise that it'd be easy 
Marshall, NicNat, Darcy and English are all likely 115+ guys if they are fit for 23 games. Odds say NicNat is the best chance of achieving that in the group, so make of that what you will. Darcy with Jackson is a pretty big wildcard, worth noting he brought Gawn from a 140 to a 113 over the last two years, I don't think it's reasonable to say he wont impact Darcy in a negative way given what they've paid to get him, the question is basically if Darcy can be that 125 guy and then have Jackson bring him down to the 110 region or if he's going to be a 102 guy and get dragged down from there. The big problem for Darcy is almost exclusively scores at stoppages so he's going to be hurt significantly if those reduce, he's actually very similar to NicNat in game style despite being almost the polar opposite in physical attributes
Honestly, I'm hoping Draper is going to actually back up the hype reports, would make my life a lot easier.
Think that anyone who manages to pick the right two rucks this season is going to have to trade their way out of a top 1000 finish, the position is going to be carnage.
Marshall, NicNat, Darcy and English are all likely 115+ guys if they are fit for 23 games. Odds say NicNat is the best chance of achieving that in the group, so make of that what you will. Darcy with Jackson is a pretty big wildcard, worth noting he brought Gawn from a 140 to a 113 over the last two years, I don't think it's reasonable to say he wont impact Darcy in a negative way given what they've paid to get him, the question is basically if Darcy can be that 125 guy and then have Jackson bring him down to the 110 region or if he's going to be a 102 guy and get dragged down from there. The big problem for Darcy is almost exclusively scores at stoppages so he's going to be hurt significantly if those reduce, he's actually very similar to NicNat in game style despite being almost the polar opposite in physical attributes
Honestly, I'm hoping Draper is going to actually back up the hype reports, would make my life a lot easier.
Think that anyone who manages to pick the right two rucks this season is going to have to trade their way out of a top 1000 finish, the position is going to be carnage.
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I'm as far from an Essendon fan as you'll find
There's a player in there, I don't know if he knows it or if it will ever surface consistently but Draper can be an elite scoring ruck if he works it out.
I'm pretty sure I need to see genuine runs on the board though in preseason games, there's no role/potential aspect, either he ticks the several boxes I have or I walk on past.
There's a player in there, I don't know if he knows it or if it will ever surface consistently but Draper can be an elite scoring ruck if he works it out.
I'm pretty sure I need to see genuine runs on the board though in preseason games, there's no role/potential aspect, either he ticks the several boxes I have or I walk on past.
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Feel like after Marshall all the other rucks have issues.
Witts - quite clearly overpriced, scores came down to earth after a hot first half of the year and his DT to SC ratio was as high as it’s ever been, had better years in DT in the past than last year but never gone above 100 in SC before. Too many indicators point to regression. Run of early opponents was as easy as it gets.
Darcy - Scored well without massive ruck minutes back in 2021 but that came off some unsustainable performances up forward and he will spend even more time forward this year. Was far less impressive last year with him not looking 100% and now Jackson probably comes in to take a large chunk of the ruck share. Makes sense for them to play Darcy forward more where he’s decent and won’t get as hurt. Don’t love the pick atm but he has shown that upside in 2021 without huge ruck contests, so worth a watch. Also an injury risk.
English - Slow start to preseason, followed by a strain, followed by tightness doesn’t make me feel safe that the upside justifies the risk of injury. Concussion risk is also an issue. The scoring last year is impressive but has also been overrated, there’s only a small sample size of elite scoring and a genuinely small number of games where he went ballistic. Would pick without recent injury woes but won’t now.
Reilly O’Brien - I actually think he’s a cheaper version of Witts, pretty ugly to watch but he’s shown over 4 years that he’s a 95-low 100’s player and I think he’s a safe pick if no other options show up. Paying up for Witts seems crazy to me when ROB probably scores just as well, but don’t think ROB has any upside either or offers value.
Grundy - My pick of the bunch, which is crazy, but he has some potential value at least. With a better midfield underneath him and if he’s still as good as he was in 2021, I think he can go high 90’s - 105 with 60% of the ruck share and 70% of his game time played in the ruck. To guess this I’ve looked at previous scoring and points per minute, adjusted for a better midfield and deducted pts for every extra minute he’ll play as a forward, he still ends up averaging around 100. I do think he’s the main ruck, reports came out back in August that Gawn was willing to give up the no 1 ruck spot to get him at the club, seen word they got him in to help with Gawn’s injury concerns and workload in older age, and they’re paying him 700k a year, telling me they intend to play him in the only position he can really play. Has risks of course but the pick is better than I originally thought when looked at closely. Still don’t love it but it’s the best I can find.
****ing rucks.
Witts - quite clearly overpriced, scores came down to earth after a hot first half of the year and his DT to SC ratio was as high as it’s ever been, had better years in DT in the past than last year but never gone above 100 in SC before. Too many indicators point to regression. Run of early opponents was as easy as it gets.
Darcy - Scored well without massive ruck minutes back in 2021 but that came off some unsustainable performances up forward and he will spend even more time forward this year. Was far less impressive last year with him not looking 100% and now Jackson probably comes in to take a large chunk of the ruck share. Makes sense for them to play Darcy forward more where he’s decent and won’t get as hurt. Don’t love the pick atm but he has shown that upside in 2021 without huge ruck contests, so worth a watch. Also an injury risk.
English - Slow start to preseason, followed by a strain, followed by tightness doesn’t make me feel safe that the upside justifies the risk of injury. Concussion risk is also an issue. The scoring last year is impressive but has also been overrated, there’s only a small sample size of elite scoring and a genuinely small number of games where he went ballistic. Would pick without recent injury woes but won’t now.
Reilly O’Brien - I actually think he’s a cheaper version of Witts, pretty ugly to watch but he’s shown over 4 years that he’s a 95-low 100’s player and I think he’s a safe pick if no other options show up. Paying up for Witts seems crazy to me when ROB probably scores just as well, but don’t think ROB has any upside either or offers value.
Grundy - My pick of the bunch, which is crazy, but he has some potential value at least. With a better midfield underneath him and if he’s still as good as he was in 2021, I think he can go high 90’s - 105 with 60% of the ruck share and 70% of his game time played in the ruck. To guess this I’ve looked at previous scoring and points per minute, adjusted for a better midfield and deducted pts for every extra minute he’ll play as a forward, he still ends up averaging around 100. I do think he’s the main ruck, reports came out back in August that Gawn was willing to give up the no 1 ruck spot to get him at the club, seen word they got him in to help with Gawn’s injury concerns and workload in older age, and they’re paying him 700k a year, telling me they intend to play him in the only position he can really play. Has risks of course but the pick is better than I originally thought when looked at closely. Still don’t love it but it’s the best I can find.
****ing rucks.
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