They need to go at around 120 for the first 6-8 weeks to maintain their 600k+ prices with how the magic number works, they could do it but its only going to take one bad game, I'm prepared to take the risk and look to get them cheaper, don't really think defenders scoring at that sort of level is overly sustainable.
Discussion 2023: Rate My Team
- Thread starter KLo30
- Start date
- Joined
- 3 May 2017
- Messages
- 2,684
- Likes
- 8,886
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Guess I really have to respond to a challenge like that @randomcliche
Firstly, I rather like your team, perhaps because its not too GNR
- reckon you're not going to be an easy-beat .. interestingly we have both just won a spot in the SCS league, so an on-going comparison will be easily tracked.
A couple of thoughts.
I think I previously said I dont really ever factor in keepers as such.
I get that its a win if you do keep a player all the way to the end, but at the start of the season its not much more than wishful thinking to me.
Using last years winner again - You counted 10 keepers excluding Hewett, Witts, Cogs & Brodie, but only 5 of the ten were realised keepers - so what does that tell us? I'm not sure. Note - Witts, Cogs & Brodie turned into keepers so he did achieve 8 in total.
I do work thru my my team set-ups in Excel, but I've never gone so far as to calculate a predicted team score.
But that kind of thinking does underpin my general approach to team selection - the driver is what I call free-points.
Eg. You have picked Laird priced at at nearly 128 ppg for $703K. I'd say you couldnt expect to get more than 128 pts for your investment - so no free points.
I'm picking LDU priced at at nearly 101 ppg for $557K. His second half of 2022 and his pre-season form so far suggest he can get to 110 ppg. so I'm hoping for (at least) 9 free points.
The wider theory being that the more free points I buy, the better placed I am.
So taking that further, the more value picks I have (assuming they work out of course) I should be ahead of GNR teams - unless they get a big free point haul from their on-field rookies who they will have more of than I do.
That's hard to accurately assess and will vary from year to year depending on the relative strengths of the seasonal rookie crops.
You'll see that I do have the most popular rookies like Ashcroft, Ginbey, McLean on-field, so I'm talking about players such as Phillips or Wilmot that I have on my bench whilst others have them on-field. If they fire it doesnt help my score & I'm missing out free-points that are advantageous to most others.
Looking at it from a cash-gen point of view, again I reckon if I do my job correctly I will have close to the best 10-11 rookies in my squad.
In that case I should also be $$ ahead of GNR teams - unless the second tier 4-5 rookies they have perform strongly.
My thought on the players you queried.
Fyfe - Definitely a risk, but as I said earlier he's a favourite & at $313K (57 ppg) I'd really kick myself if he comes off. Contingency is to swap him to Ziebell at round 3 if that looks the better way to go.
Haynes - A bit more confident here: Also priced at 57 ppg but has a proven SC track record over time prior to 2022 (which I think was due to injuries) Not too old and reportedly back in form. Role moved on. Cumming, and others do it.
Jackson - Admittedly this one is a lot more speculative [at best].. He does provide ruck cover as I do have a decent F7. Also his age and switch to Freo should/could see him do better than 85ppg.
Cunnington - Unless his midfield role isn't evident in this weeks praccy match, I cant see this one failing - surely there's ~20 free pts coming my way! Old man, role uncertainty.
Lycett - as above if he's Port's #1 ruck I want a guaranteed #1 ruck, with limited sharing or an E-saver (OMG I love that name you coined!).
As for your team, it does look pretty good to me, but you are banking a lot on your E-Saver investment at R2.
At this stage I'm not convinced, but I will be looking at the score he puts up this week.
Firstly, I rather like your team, perhaps because its not too GNR
- reckon you're not going to be an easy-beat .. interestingly we have both just won a spot in the SCS league, so an on-going comparison will be easily tracked.A couple of thoughts.
I think I previously said I dont really ever factor in keepers as such.
I get that its a win if you do keep a player all the way to the end, but at the start of the season its not much more than wishful thinking to me.
Using last years winner again - You counted 10 keepers excluding Hewett, Witts, Cogs & Brodie, but only 5 of the ten were realised keepers - so what does that tell us? I'm not sure. Note - Witts, Cogs & Brodie turned into keepers so he did achieve 8 in total.
I do work thru my my team set-ups in Excel, but I've never gone so far as to calculate a predicted team score.
But that kind of thinking does underpin my general approach to team selection - the driver is what I call free-points.
Eg. You have picked Laird priced at at nearly 128 ppg for $703K. I'd say you couldnt expect to get more than 128 pts for your investment - so no free points.
I'm picking LDU priced at at nearly 101 ppg for $557K. His second half of 2022 and his pre-season form so far suggest he can get to 110 ppg. so I'm hoping for (at least) 9 free points.
The wider theory being that the more free points I buy, the better placed I am.
So taking that further, the more value picks I have (assuming they work out of course) I should be ahead of GNR teams - unless they get a big free point haul from their on-field rookies who they will have more of than I do.
That's hard to accurately assess and will vary from year to year depending on the relative strengths of the seasonal rookie crops.
You'll see that I do have the most popular rookies like Ashcroft, Ginbey, McLean on-field, so I'm talking about players such as Phillips or Wilmot that I have on my bench whilst others have them on-field. If they fire it doesnt help my score & I'm missing out free-points that are advantageous to most others.
Looking at it from a cash-gen point of view, again I reckon if I do my job correctly I will have close to the best 10-11 rookies in my squad.
In that case I should also be $$ ahead of GNR teams - unless the second tier 4-5 rookies they have perform strongly.
My thought on the players you queried.
Fyfe - Definitely a risk, but as I said earlier he's a favourite & at $313K (57 ppg) I'd really kick myself if he comes off. Contingency is to swap him to Ziebell at round 3 if that looks the better way to go.
Haynes - A bit more confident here: Also priced at 57 ppg but has a proven SC track record over time prior to 2022 (which I think was due to injuries) Not too old and reportedly back in form. Role moved on. Cumming, and others do it.
Jackson - Admittedly this one is a lot more speculative [at best].. He does provide ruck cover as I do have a decent F7. Also his age and switch to Freo should/could see him do better than 85ppg.
Cunnington - Unless his midfield role isn't evident in this weeks praccy match, I cant see this one failing - surely there's ~20 free pts coming my way! Old man, role uncertainty.
Lycett - as above if he's Port's #1 ruck I want a guaranteed #1 ruck, with limited sharing or an E-saver (OMG I love that name you coined!).
As for your team, it does look pretty good to me, but you are banking a lot on your E-Saver investment at R2.
At this stage I'm not convinced, but I will be looking at the score he puts up this week.
Comments on the speccy picks above,
They'd be terrible starting picks in that scenario. Assuming the threshold remains the same they'd barely even be D6 at that point and if they were everyone is paying 100k less for them than you did. You're only picking them over a Rozee type if you think they can improve a similar amount.
I'm happy for as few people to be on Rozee as possible so not going to try and convince anyone on him.
I'm happy for as few people to be on Rozee as possible so not going to try and convince anyone on him.
- Joined
- 24 Feb 2015
- Messages
- 6,697
- Likes
- 30,160
- AFL Club
- Sydney
I’m still OS and haven’t seen any practice games so thanks to those here for the continuous reports regarding players, teams, injuries etc. Much appreciated.
This is where I’ve settled atm, I do have some questions around Ziebell though as I do see mixed reports, anyone comment on his role short/long term at NM? Many on the BF teams board don’t even want him in the round 1 team let alone long term but I think this is what comes with a coach arriving like Clarkson and some young talent on the list but for me they need some old heads/bodies still protect the young.
This is where I’ve settled atm, I do have some questions around Ziebell though as I do see mixed reports, anyone comment on his role short/long term at NM? Many on the BF teams board don’t even want him in the round 1 team let alone long term but I think this is what comes with a coach arriving like Clarkson and some young talent on the list but for me they need some old heads/bodies still protect the young.
Did some tinkering over the morning coffee.
Still have the Stewart Doch Dawson at D1-D3
Oliver Bont Steele Green Hopper now at M5 , big watch on Callaghan. 100k cheaper and could produce the same returns and allows Grundy to Darcy/English.
Dunkey Rozee Taranto Bruhn slots into F4, feel he could be a keeper when Hopper is no chance.
Still have the Stewart Doch Dawson at D1-D3
Oliver Bont Steele Green Hopper now at M5 , big watch on Callaghan. 100k cheaper and could produce the same returns and allows Grundy to Darcy/English.
Dunkey Rozee Taranto Bruhn slots into F4, feel he could be a keeper when Hopper is no chance.
thoughts and comments
Mackenzie a smooth mover. Liked bruhns role if last night was an indication.
dont see goater/ginbey option working so need an option down back.
going strong on rucks as they are capable of big scores and rather have the points now and worry about trades later.
50/50 on zeibel, coulb become cogs or allen.
Mackenzie a smooth mover. Liked bruhns role if last night was an indication.
dont see goater/ginbey option working so need an option down back.
going strong on rucks as they are capable of big scores and rather have the points now and worry about trades later.
50/50 on zeibel, coulb become cogs or allen.
Hmm, Hopper down to Mackenzie at M6 gets a Bruhn type at F5 instead of a pick like Bruce. Tick.
But Hopper really does look like gimme value, so if I want him, Ashcroft, Mackenzie and Philips on field at M5-M8 I need to drop a mid premo as I can only play 4 of them. That gets me a spare $300k and a bit... not enough to upgrade to a premium defender but enough to change Sav back into a 4th premium forward (just). But that then pushes Toby McLean to the bench at F7 (!) which feels like a waste.
Maybe seeing Hopper and McLean in the praccies help know which way to squeeze all those picks
But Hopper really does look like gimme value, so if I want him, Ashcroft, Mackenzie and Philips on field at M5-M8 I need to drop a mid premo as I can only play 4 of them. That gets me a spare $300k and a bit... not enough to upgrade to a premium defender but enough to change Sav back into a 4th premium forward (just). But that then pushes Toby McLean to the bench at F7 (!) which feels like a waste.
Maybe seeing Hopper and McLean in the praccies help know which way to squeeze all those picks
Hmm, Hopper down to Mackenzie at M6 gets a Bruhn type at F5 instead of a pick like Bruce. Tick.
But Hopper really does look like gimme value, so if I want him, Ashcroft, Mackenzie and Philips on field at M5-M8 I need to drop a mid premo as I can only play 4 of them. That gets me a spare $300k and a bit... not enough to upgrade to a premium defender but enough to change Sav back into a 4th premium forward (just). But that then pushes Toby McLean to the bench at F7 (!) which feels like a waste.
Maybe seeing Hopper and McLean in the praccies help know which way to squeeze all those picks
But Hopper really does look like gimme value, so if I want him, Ashcroft, Mackenzie and Philips on field at M5-M8 I need to drop a mid premo as I can only play 4 of them. That gets me a spare $300k and a bit... not enough to upgrade to a premium defender but enough to change Sav back into a 4th premium forward (just). But that then pushes Toby McLean to the bench at F7 (!) which feels like a waste.
Maybe seeing Hopper and McLean in the praccies help know which way to squeeze all those picks
- Joined
- 2 Apr 2014
- Messages
- 1,128
- Likes
- 4,812
- AFL Club
- Essendon
It's a bit different but don't mind it myself, my main concern would be the Atkins pick albeit I haven't been keeping much of an eye on the practice matches so maybe I'm missing something. I would be trying to get him up to a Daicos type player potentially by going Rat to a cheaper rookie like Greene.