Analysis 2023 Preseason Games

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Easier to maintain value when starting from a lower price, and the 10ppg difference can be made up elsewhere if you have better rookies or a better midpricer on field. Conversely, spending up for a perma-captain is also appealing.
And while a good start is important, it's the trading that wins you the game
 
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I’m not picking Gulden personally at this stage.

He was not in consideration for my team before today so I’m going to back in my research and not be reactive to a good preseason game. The only way I see that changing is if there are some reports from the coaching staff confirming more mid time.

Potential correction trade.
 
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Don't think so, he scored 80 odd points in the first half playing in the backline, moved into the midfield in the second half. Might still be moved into the midfield for stints even when Cripps is back.
That’s what I’m hoping... I’m currently tossing a coin between Doc and Stuart and luv the way Doc goes about it
 
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Sydney vs Carlton

General - Watched 3 quarters. I had to watch this on mute, it's too early in the season to listen to Dermott drivel absolute horse**** but I wanted to watch my side so that was the compromise. Fox really should do better, listening to Lynchy stutter his way through the alphabet should not be the clear best commentator ever... Game was solid, good hitout, bit of wet weather didn't help the preseason skill level but definitely helped to close it up a bit and increase the contested element. Both sides missing way too many keystone types to really gauge a lot here...

Swans - Strong win, just controlled the game, were better at the stoppages by a fair margin and the Blues really struggled to move the ball out of defense with anything but contested marking. Pretty happy with the hitout and some good signs as I'm very worried about a hangover after the utter embarrassment of the GF, last two sides to get embarrassed like that were GWS and Adelaide (we were worse than either) and both those clubs basically folded over the next few seasons.

Warner - Strong role, midfield and a bit of half forward but higher midfield balance this week than last. Did nothing to really move the needle, either you were already on him and he ticked the boxes or you weren't and he didn't.

McLean/Franklin/Reid/Hayward - Playing forward in the roles you'd expect, McLean looked to be off the bench to hold structures when Reid and Buddy rested.

Stephens - Had a really solid game on the wing as a link man, played well.

Heeney - Started really well as a high half forward, then settled into a deep forward pocket role and the well dried up. Looks very fit. I think there's options with more upside as the role will not be there, imo.

McDonald - Had one of his best games to date, really working hard to be a hitup option, his best role by far, in that NRoo sort of vein, actually clunking a few helps. Still a couple of years away for mine.

Cunningham - Played up forward, I'd hazard either taking Clarke's role or filling it. I didn't notice him tagging but that's the obvious role for him if he does.

Rowbottom - Had much less midfield time than last week, low TOG says managed a bit. He can only play one role and Horse froths on him so fully expect he's there wasting midfield minutes come round one but was good to see the much better Warner and Gulden get a chance at least in the preseason. I honestly don't think he's best 22 but Horse is the one who matters and he thinks he's one of our best. He'll ruin things for the guys who are good enough to be fantasy relevant basically.

Florent/Blakey/McCartin x2/Rampe/Lloyd - All playing the roles you'd expect down back and I'd wager that the balance of points was about right here, Lloyd will play more as will Blakey but they'll share the points, reckon you've got 3 80-95 guys basically.

Campbell - Had a much better game this week. His left foot really is special but he still looks hesitant to ask for the ball and a bit shell shocked, he seemed surprised when he dobbed a goal well within his repertoire (and not many others), has really lost his swagger. I struggle to see where he squeezes in unfortunately, not sure where Fox is at but he's taken that slot for now. He's got a lot more potential than Fox so if he can take the early season chance then it would be great. Too much uncertainty on role and scoring at his price to be relevant.

Ladhams - He was excellent, did his best work around the ground but that's his strength so not a surprise. Can't see him beating Hickey long term but he should get a chance at least to make the spot his for the first couple of weeks. Unfortunately he kills the McAndrew dream though.

Gulden - Yep. This one is so hard to read. He had a good role last week, slotted into a great role this week but as mentioned on Rowbottom, he was well down on rotations and Mills and Papley not playing at all. Gulden was bloody sensational but he always is when he gets the inside mid role and Horse doesn't seem to like him in the role outside of preseason so it's hard to see what would have changed, this is the same coach who's been playing Rowbottom there for two years despite no ability so, again, why would we expect change? If I could trust Horse to do sensible things with his midfield rotations then I'd be all over Gulden and he's done everything he can to prove he's in our best couple of midfielders but ultimately Rowbottom is Horse's bastard son and hasn't got the ability to play another position, Parker and Mills are still better and Warner also is gifted through there. I think ultimately it's going to be a no premium group, Mills, Warner and Gulden will be victims of their versatility, Parker has only once gotten close, he just doesn't quite do enough, and Rowbottom just completely lacks ability. If Parker and Rowbottom weren't there I'd feel pretty good that all of Mills, Gulden and Warner would be premium level scorers but 5, with Papley and Heeney as well, is too many for a team that doesn't play a very good fantasy style.

Parker - Still a jet, wet weather sure doesn't hurt him. Will be in the same region he's been the best part of the last decade, I think we do start to phase him somewhat this year but not enough to shift goalposts.

McInerney - Wing as expected, played solidly, not his conditions.

Edwards - Came on as the third ruck, not his role, not fantasy relevant.

Roberts - Played a really decent game but I don't see how he's best 22 with the names we've got out right now. Going to be a really handy player and a strong downgrade option if we get a bad injury run, he played wing, inside mid and forward and was solid at all 3 spots, that's what gets you games later in the year.

McAndrew - Clearly behind Ladhams, only came on when Ladhams was resting. Be very surprised if they played together and playing off the bench is a pretty sure sign he's a backup ruck only or you'd be working him with the forward group in this game. Stick a fork in him for now.
 
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Blues - Given their outs, they'd be perfectly fine with this game, got jumped early but were even the rest of the way. Like Sydney, the couple of guys missing really do change everything so reading much into it is very difficult.

Silvagni/Owies/Motlop/E. Curnow - All playing forward roles as you'd expect, none relevant for mine.

Dow - Clearly place holding for Cripps, slid into that 4th midfield slot and did nothing to show he wont be playing a lot of VFL.

LOB - Wing role, seemed to be comfortably the 3rd wing behind Hollands and Acres, whether that holds up in the real stuff is a serious question. You've also got the squeeze that happens when it's a genuine 22.

Cerra - Pure midfield role, it felt like he did more than his score but was rock solid, should start the season very strong.

Kennedy - Ditto to Cerra. Weather suited him more and was hard at it as expected.

TDK - Still struggles at basically anything but outrageous mark attempts, serious athlete at his size but a long way to go for mine and I feel like they're forcing games into him as the 3rd tall/2nd ruck if he plays over Silvagni as I think Silvagni is better in that role because he's a much better forward.

Acres - Wing as expected.

Hollands - Tough read here, played more than LOB, played much better than LOB but do they panic and go seniority here or do they go with the kid? He covers enough ground so engine not an issue, does try defensively but was shrugged several times (not that LOB doesn't also struggle with that). I think they probably go with the more recent 1st round pick who looks ready and his scoring in this game isn't a fluke, he works really hard to space and will score in the real stuff very decently. If he's there round one, especially if it's over LOB, then he's a good chance to be one of the best rookies.

Docherty - Started in defense for the first half, moved on ball in the third. I'll be honest, I was shocked by his score, my vibe was "they may as well have rested him with the others as he was in preseason mode" which makes the extreme score a very strong sign, it's not like I wasn't looking for him I just didn't notice him waxing to the level he clearly did. To be fair ball was in their half for most of the first half and he did a sizeable chunk of his scoring then so was mostly just the switches and cheap kicks that I tend to zone off a bit to watch structures and setup ahead of the ball. Either way, this is exactly what you want if you're picking him. He's probably the top 5 defender with the most upside for mine remembering last year was off about as bad a preseason as you can have and his history. I don't think the role really matters, he scores in every way anyhow. This is a great game for him, nothing special on his way to 150...

Plowman - He has to have compromising pictures of someone at Carlton, credit to him that he's grifted out a career that's somehow still going but god he's bad. If I was a Carlton fan I'd not want him playing this year because it really should be a catastrophic scenario. Of course McGovern's body is prone to catastrophe...

Weitering/Young - KPD as expected. Solid.

Fisher - He's been a real disappointment, looked so good early on but just has never developed as a player or physically. HF type role, underwhelming.

Cowan - I liked what he did, second game in a row where he's been rock solid but not really done enough to slam dunk a spot. Plowman is trying to give him a spot, ZWilliams has already opened one and he's just left it hanging for a Marchbank to sweep in and steal. What he did was good but not doing enough to really stand out. Same as last week, I feel there's a really solid fantasy player in there just lurking right now but he's not really given me anything to support it outside flashes. Has the size and athletic ability to be the 3rd tall against most sides but should fill the 4th if everyone is fit. Done nothing wrong and a solid option if he makes it round one.

Pittonet - The best ruckman on the ground by a fair distance, shame he does nothing else fantasy wise because he's one of the best pure rucks in the league. Got through the game, that's good for Cripps who has a very strong pairing with him.

Hewett - Second game in a row where I don't think last year was a fluke. Can't trust him to stay fit but he's the sneaky strong premium unique play for mine.

Curnow - He looked really good, playing with very little help he just works so hard to be an option. Watching him work into the wind to be the option was the polar opposite of watching the Bombers game. I don't think he can go high enough to match the DPP and midfielders pretending to be forwards but he was great and looks very fit.

Honey - Can't see him being there round one, didn't do much at all with his chance.

Cincotta - I think he got the bin out in Q4 because he'd only been mediocre to the end of 3, what he did was very handy and he absolutely is good enough for the level. Feels to me like there's really only one spot available come round one and he and Cowan are battling for it, I'd say Cowan was slightly better in the 3 quarters I watched, felt Cincotta was better last week. Maybe both play but I'm not expecting it. JS will be an issue for either if they win but both are viable rookies if they do make the round 1 side.

Saad - His numbers do match the eye test of not wasting any energy in the preseason. I know some are looking at him, probably wanted more, but if you're sold it's on last year anyway and a performance like this is defending your unique pick pretty handily. Looked fit, that's about the most important thing for him.
 
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I feel like being away for 10 days I've missed a bit :unsure:
You have but that might not be a bad thing, some of the pre-season performances were ridiculous, there are SC scores this week which means there'll be lots of changes made from coaches that were pretty much set with their teams, good to be able to rule some rookies out of the selection process though. A bit of reading should catch you up.
 
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Eagles vs Adelaide

General - Watched 3 quarters. Surprisingly good game given the scoreboard and teams playing, I do find the Crows play a very entertaining style though and they definitely dragged the Eagles into their world and then ground and pound them into submission. Some good moments for both sides. So nice to actually have decent commentators as well, makes such a difference to listen without the complete dickheads like Lyon and Derm.

Eagles - Some worrying signs in how badly they got punched in the mouth and how they couldn't really match it but they did show some signs late in the 3rd and had some good highlights from some of the younger guys to help them out. Overall though it wasn't a great game for them, admittedly losing NicNat is a huge blow for them as the drop off is extreme but their inability to rove to the opponent ruck or clamp down in that area was telling.

Ryan/Cripps/Petrucelle/Waterman - All playing forward in normal roles, Waterman as a CHF mimicking Darling.

Gaff - Looks washed, was pretty useless playing wing.

Sheed - I know some like him but I don't get it personally. He just doesn't really do anything well. He's a solid battler but I'd think you want more and surely the Eagles are trying to push guys like him and Kelly out of the midfield for some of the kids to get chances this year. Expect he'll have several games like this, he'll also have some bigger and even worse ones but I just think there's much better options at that price point.

Hunt - Some like him, another I don't really get at his price, not like he's got any real history. Does look like supply should be strong though but he's close to the worst rebounding defender in their back 6.

Yeo - Solid outing, nothing too much and a bit preseasony in his efforts but looked fit again, role was good. A tick overall. Will be in every side barring a mishap.

Ginbey - There's a lot of Bont in how he moves and plays, TOG is a major concern, especially with a couple of the older guys also very low, from my understanding engine isn't an issue but that's still a worry as the vest will have to find a home. What he did was brilliant and he's definitely a guy you'd risk fielding because if he can get decent TOG he can go huge, very natural SC game. Big tick.

Hewett - Came on very late in the third, did nothing. Hasn't featured in the preseason which isn't a good sign. Lot of talent as a junior though if he does make it, there's always a rookie who doesn't play much and then locks in a round one spot.

Kelly - I mean he's looked washed since he joined them but his effort level for a guy coming off the season he had last year, just a shame he's taken the contract and given up after such an epic pathway into the league.

Allen - Good example of how hard his role is, he played pretty well and only gets a 52. Little doubt he makes cash and he's clear best 22 but he's very hard to field and at his price I'm not sure it's worth it for a bench guy. He's actually a solid pick but will probably take longer than most. I guess you pay the extra for the guarantee he makes cash if fit. He'll kick a bag or two to spike.

Shuey - Played half back early, then a fair bit of midfield as it went on. He played really well, one of the guys with super low TOG but coming back from injuries so not a surprise. Could be a viable option if he gets DPP and that role could be very lucrative, shame you can't trust the body.

Duggan - Another really solid hitout for him. Looks to be one of their primary rebounders again, should have a good year.

Chesser - A very underwhelming game from him, TOG not a great indicator, but also not a great role playing wing in a side having some issues moving the ball beyond their defensive half. He wasn't bad but I think he's the prime suspect for that damned vest on their side. Wouldn't want on field personally, at least not early on but could be a good option if he makes it round one as a slow burner.

McGovern - Looked really fit and played great. He'll have quieter games obviously but will also have some big ones. More a draft league target but he looks fit for the first time in a couple of years so should go well.

Hurn - Same old from him, he's looked the same since he was 18 and looks set for another huge year.

Cole - He was really solid, got better as the game went on, it's not a great role as one of the more defensive small defenders but there's plenty of ball and they were quite happy to chip around down back. Think he's a rock solid option, probably on the high volatility end of on-field playable which you want at his price. JS isn't excellent with a few guys pecking at him but should get first shot and has been pretty reliable when fit.

O'Neill - Had a sneaky good role, started wing but pushed on ball for large chunks of the game. Not relevant other than sniping valuable minutes from the relevant guys!

Jones - Playing forward, he played pretty well but terrible role.

Rotham - Also playing forward and 2nd ruck, seemed to be a selfless fake the structure move.

Barrass - Was really solid but Gov is clearly the primary intercept guy when fit and he drops a lot as a result.

Jamieson - He scored surprisingly well because he wasn't good. NicNat lurking and Williams was a late out I believe and would play ahead of him if fit. Might play but would be intermittently and too expensive for a bench spot that may fail to play entirely.

Crows - Would have to be happy with this game, couple of important guys continued good preseasons, dictated the game style, were way harder at it and just a really solid hitout.

Keays - Again playing predominantly forward, no tagging role or anything just playing HF and played it well. I actually don't know what more he could do to get a positive ratio than kicking 4.1 but apparently not enough :LOL:

Berry - Great role, really solid player, more DT than SC if you were going to take a flyer, think he's probably another year away.

Rachele - Played some midfield but mostly forward, not his time yet but he's quality.

Sloane - Pure wing role again, seems very settled in the role and was good.

Pedlar - He was very good, crap role and I think you can get similar for cheaper but I reckon his JS is better than most forward rookies, he offers a bit of everything but mostly his defensive stuff is top notch and coaches love that, especially when you've got a few guys that are, let's say, questionable in that area that need to be covered for.

Dawson - Same old for him, played really well, played the role you'd expect. There's been no surprises in his preseason, think he's pretty safe to be within 5 or so of his starting price, definitely could be an increase as well. Safe type of starting pick.

Walker/McAdam/Himmel - Roles as expected, Himmel 3rd tall/2nd ruck. All played well.

Soligo - Was really good today, almost playing the Lambert role at Richmond, of starting forward and then gut running into the defensive role in the midfield so that Rachele can start in and burst. Got a good dose of outright CBA as well and was solid. Not relevant outside drafts.

Michalanney - I actually thought he played really well, did a solid job on Liam Ryan for the most part, who is not an easy matchup for anyone. Great sign he played, Worrell injury probably giving him the chance but he looked settled and no nonsense back there, Milera the other guy missing that could replace him. Definitely could be a solid bench option, his ball use was very handy but wasn't looking for pill is the only knock. I think there's better options but he's a good chance at round one.

Hinge - Wing again also, he and Sloane have played just about every minute there and looks very settled.

Rankine - Pretty much full time forward, he played pretty well but not a relevant role.

Schoenberg - Continues to be their 4th mid, he was much better today but still not where he was a couple of years back.

Murray/Butts/Doedee/Smith - Roles as expected in defense.

Laird - Gun. He's got to be among the best tacklers in the game, he's also an elite ball user and so crafty at clearances. Even more dangerous when ROB is the best ruck but he doesn't really care. Only bad thing about this game is it means more people will pick him and him as a semi-unique was a hill I was very happy to die on this season! Oh well :LOL:

Fogarty - I don't think he's relevant but god he played well. He looks set for a huge year, the patron saints of players who looked completely lost and turned it around 180! So good to see.

Parnell - I rate him, thought he's been the best small defender of the group all preseason and won the gig today and was great with it. Thought he was really solid. Too expensive most likely but he does love to find the ball and could score very well. Could also go out for Milera, would think one of him or Michalanney will.

ROB - Easily his best game of the preseason, first good one really, still I'd say this is a negative game for him. He should do much better against Jamieson than this. It was good he won a good amount of ruck contests but to only put up 103 against as bad a player as he'll face is a real concern. Only preseason but seen nothing from him to make me want to pick him, which means he's a monty to be the top scoring ruck this year!
 
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I agree but went from an elite player to pretty much a nothing player. Trade him or find a new role for him, i know his not laird but that sort of role maybe would of suited him. Can find the footy and can tackle half decent.
He had just about his best season last year, just because he's not putting up SC doesn't mean he's not playing a valuable role. We've added McCartin, Blakey and Florent to the back 7 and all 3 took significant fantasy points from him but he's defended better than he ever has and his touches are now much higher value to the team.

He started on the wing and was useless there so can't see a reason to move him anywhere else.

Now I haven't watched any games or read much, but if a guy like Gulden puts up numbers like that regardless of it being preseason or not, the coaching group will notice.
You've obviously never seen how Horse works :LOL: He'll have already decided the roles and the contingencies and he'll stick to them hell or high water. Hence Callum Mills playing in defense for 4 years longer than any other coach would have kept him there, Heeney never sniffing the midfield, Rowbottom playing midfield, Cunningham having played over 100 games, Hewett, Titch and so many others walking out the door because of the positions they were played and so on.

I really hope this preseason is a sign of Gulden getting out of the doghouse, be even better if Rowbottom goes in there in his place but I wouldn't be surprised if it's just a preseason thing also.

On a positive, Horse is generally pretty honest with the media so if he says Gulden is going to be a primary midfielder, I'll actually believe it. One thing with Mills is that he never lied about the role, ditto for Heeney or many others.

The only real question is whether Horse had already decided this would be his role, in which case he's cemented it.

It's a really tough call, in the right role he's up there with Rozee as a pick, in all his other roles he's not going to score premium numbers. With Mills, Parker, Rowbottom and Warner there's a lot of competition and he's a much better forward than any of them and also a better winger than all but Mills in that group. Meanwhile Rowbottom can't play anywhere else and is Horse's favourite (only explanation for him playing) and Parker is Parker.

I really hope he's playing midfield though, would make us a much better side to have him pushing 30 touches a game, again, especially in place of Rowbottom.
 
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