Position 2023: Forwards Discussion

[Montyjnr]

1 scrappy preseason game doesn't change history. He went at 84.7% for the season in 2021 which puts him in the elite of the elite. The only players with at least 300 kicks that were better than him were Luke Ryan, Jake Lloyd and Jordan Ridley.

Plus, it was relative to teammates, even Hall isn't good in this area (75%). The other guys are Logue (terrible), Young/Dawson/McDonald/Corr (not good) and McKay (statistically good because he only kicks rarely and short to safe options). Goater was awful in his one game but should be solid. Perez has also been dreadful and Bonar is even worse than Logue. The fact the guy who takes on the hardest kicks has the highest DE% is actually crazy good.

How many of Ziebell's kicks in 2021 were short to safe options like McKay? I recall he was not receiving much love from anyone outside fantasy circles for his impact on games that year.

Now he is 2 years older into his 30s with a new coach, no captaincy to save him at selection and a talented kid called Goater that needs game time.

McKay, Logue, McDonald, Corr, Hall, Thomas (was training with defenders before his legal issues) & Goater - should Ziebell really be playing ahead of anyone in that 7 every week?

Then there are other younger depth options like Perez, Young, Archer, Dawson, Bonar etc. that could easily get a look.

 

[Ironhawk]

How many of Ziebell's kicks in 2021 were short to safe options like McKay?

Ziebell was 16th in the AFL for average metres gained in 2021. Probably not as many as you would think based on that stat.

 

[dlanod]

This is not right. When the sub existed previously (before it was the medi-sub) teams named 22 on Thursday and then nominated the sub 90 minutes before the game (now 60). There was only 3 standard interchanges then.

I desperately hope they don’t revert back to this.

They won't. It's been announced there will be four interchange players and then a sub named from the emergencies. Last time it was four interchange players, and then a sub named from them.

 

[Wheedus]

They won't. It's been announced there will be four interchange players and then a sub named from the emergencies. Last time it was four interchange players, and then a sub named from them.

That then raises the prospect of clubs doing a "late change" to drop a named player to the sub position and bring in an emergency to start the game.

 

[dlanod]

That then raises the prospect of clubs doing a "late change" to drop a named player to the sub position and bring in an emergency to start the game.

Sure, but you might as well be worried about a bus wiping out your entire SC team two minutes into a game. You're far far more likely to have your named player as a late out and not be the sub than you are any kind of fairly pointless shenanigans.

 

[NT.Thunder]

@Shannon how far away is Jack Darling? I see OAllen has fallen out of a lot of teams but if JD is back round 1 I see him as a reasonable option against NM - thoughts

 

[Shannon]

@Shannon how far away is Jack Darling? I see OAllen has fallen out of a lot of teams but if JD is back round 1 I see him as a reasonable option against NM - thoughts

Trained yesterday, should play round 1 at this stage

 

[Uncle Drew]

Re: Ziebell

Plenty of the talk on the North Melbourne Bigfooty board is that he is borderline best 22. Most want him out and only think he gets a go because of his status within the club.

I think a few are thinking Ziebell named in the backline correlates to his 2021 season. I don't trust that at all.
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I know they're North supporters so they should know best, but when one of them says Hall offers something defensively he just lost all credibility.

Seriously though, I tend to agree that Ziebell won't get close to his 2021 numbers. He took most of the kick ins, and Norths old game plan of 'they can't score if we chip the ball around defence' suited him to a tee.

 

[Gruffles]

Are you picking this guy in your Supercoach forward line this season?

I know i am ****ing not!

 

[Spifflicator]

Just a side note on Gulden, had Dow as his opponent most the game. Dows biggest weakness has always been his defensive game, just doesn’t follow his man, doesn’t have a clue what to do after a clearance and that game probably put a line through his name.

In saying that hard to ignore Gulden with those numbers

Agree with all that, but he's now my F5, Sheezel F6. I have decided to load on the high scoring mid/fwds and go very shallow in defence instead as there seem to be better cash cows on that line.

 

[Juzzo]

With McKay out, Hall available and Zurhaar in doubt for R1, will JZs role change?

 

[Santoz]

Are you picking this guy in your Supercoach forward line this season?

I know i am ****ing not!

Locked & loaded instead of Gulden.

Recent history. Cash saved. More confident in him having a mid role than Gulden.

 

[Gruffles]

Locked & loaded instead of Gulden.

Recent history. Cash saved. More confident in him having a mid role than Gulden.

The joke was more about the picture, not your typical elite sportsman look wouldn't you say lol?
You can't really lose money on him and he should be good for a 80-95 ave i think, best of luck!

 

[NT.Thunder]

Doing a bit of a deeper dive on Sam Flanders. Lot's of talk about Flanders and his increased tank and numbers that were posted in the VFL last year. The numbers are impressive where up to round 11 in the VFL he averaged 105 including a round 1 score of 50. Fantasy points also I point out. Now round 11 VFL was the first week of June. Flanders gets an AFL recall in AFL Round 14 mid June where in 6 games he averages just 42 give or take. He plays a few more games of VFL and again big numbers and plays a few more games of AFL and again no where near his VFL stats.

For a guy that played a pretty even split between AFL and VFL there's some big differences in numbers, preseason to me seems closer to a VFL game than a proper AFL season game, does this worry anyone else spending that sort of money.

 

[Shannon]

Doing a bit of a deeper dive on Sam Flanders. Lot's of talk about Flanders and his increased tank and numbers that were posted in the VFL last year. The numbers are impressive where up to round 11 in the VFL he averaged 105 including a round 1 score of 50. Fantasy points also I point out. Now round 11 VFL was the first week of June. Flanders gets and AFL recall in AFL Round 14 mid June where in 6 games he averages just 42 give or take. He plays a few more games of VFL and again big numbers and plays a few more games of AFL and again no where near his VFL stats.

For a guy that played a pretty even split between AFL and VFL there's some big differences in numbers, preseason to me seems closer to a VFL game than a proper AFL season game, does this worry anyone else spending that sort of money.

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😳

That is very concerning…,

In the first preseason game when Touk played he was relatively quiet but in the 2nd one without Touk he was much more involved even though he wasn’t really included in the CBA rotation.

 

[Hondo]

Agree with all that, but he's now my F5, Sheezel F6. I have decided to load on the high scoring mid/fwds and go very shallow in defence instead as there seem to be better cash cows on that line.

I’ve said elsewhere I worry there’s been an over reaction to Gulden and he seems to be throwing teams all around because no one seems to think he’s a better option than Rozee or Taranto so what do you do when it’s 1 week to go and suddenly everyone’s talking about him .. plonk a $500k 3rd year player into F5.
Maybe he’s the key winning pick for 2023, who knows.

 

[NT.Thunder]

I think F5 is a stretch too far for me, I'm already compromising lines with slotting him in at F4.

I think people are getting a little too worked up on the Gulden take or not. It's pretty black and white for me - at this stage I take him based on natural improvement and what we've seen in match sims and the preseason game. He's an easy fix with 36 trades and the number of options that will be available below his price range, there's so many options he can go to if needed. Again, if he pumps out 2 games of 100+ and those without him will need to make a decision possibly on how to get a $300k or less player to him before you start losing potentially points on ground and his increasing price. The increasing ownership to me also makes the risk a lot less starting him than not starting him.

He's got a good tank, tackles, good K:H ratio, marks the ball well and kicks goals. He went 130 and up twice last season and looking at his scoring I see a couple of ways he increases his average. One is more CBA's increasing his contested ball/clearance numbers, we've seen him trialed in the preseason doing this so it's not beyond the realms of possibility. The second is natural progression after 2 years in the game, better fitness base and hopefully leading to a higher floor in his scoring. He had a few 50 odd games, if he takes these up to a floor of 75 then again we'll see his average rise

Now there is every chance he gets parked forward and I think most owners will be watching that and making a decision in 2 rounds.

I understand both sides, but that's my thinking. Maybe he's in my team round 1, maybe not. Maybe he's in my team round 23 - maybe not.

 

[Montyjnr]

Locked & loaded instead of Gulden.

Recent history. Cash saved. More confident in him having a mid role than Gulden.

Amen

 

[Hondo]

I think F5 is a stretch too far for me, I'm already compromising lines with slotting him in at F4.

I think people are getting a little too worked up on the Gulden take or not. It's pretty black and white for me - at this stage I take him based on natural improvement and what we've seen in match sims and the preseason game. He's an easy fix with 36 trades and the number of options that will be available below his price range, there's so many options he can go to if needed. Again, if he pumps out 2 games of 100+ and those without him will need to make a decision possibly on how to get a $300k or less player to him before you start losing potentially points on ground and his increasing price. The increasing ownership to me also makes the risk a lot less starting him than not starting him.

He's got a good tank, tackles, good K:H ratio, marks the ball well and kicks goals. He went 130 and up twice last season and looking at his scoring I see a couple of ways he increases his average. One is more CBA's increasing his contested ball/clearance numbers, we've seen him trialed in the preseason doing this so it's not beyond the realms of possibility. The second is natural progression after 2 years in the game, better fitness base and hopefully leading to a higher floor in his scoring. He had a few 50 odd games, if he takes these up to a floor of 75 then again we'll see his average rise

Now there is every chance he gets parked forward and I think most owners will be watching that and making a decision in 2 rounds.

I understand both sides, but that's my thinking. Maybe he's in my team round 1, maybe not. Maybe he's in my team round 23 - maybe not.

At his price though if pumps out two 100s he’d be one of maybe 10 guys around $500k to do that. I don’t recall normally chasing 100s at this price point as a correction.
Cripps last year was an exception and I did correct him at at his starting price.
I keep hearing he’d be hard to bring in well he’s not a $300k or less cash cow. He’s probably priced at within $50k of what he’ll be priced at all year thanks to those lower games he will inevitably produce.
So to me he would be the same as any other upgrade target rather than a R3 correction.if he starts with 2 130s well then that’s a different thing

 

[NT.Thunder]

At his price though if pumps out two 100s he’d be one of maybe 10 guys around $500k to do that. I don’t recall normally chasing 100s at this price point as a correction.
Cripps last year was an exception and I did correct him at at his starting price.
I keep hearing he’d be hard to bring in well he’s not a $300k or less cash cow. He’s probably priced at within $50k of what he’ll be priced at all year thanks to those lower games he will inevitably produce.
So to me he would be the same as any other upgrade target rather than a R3 correction.if he starts with 2 130s well then that’s a different thing

Who’s your F4 or F5 - if they’re pumping out 50’s and the money saved isn’t being used to full advantage that’s where it hurts. It’s all what ifs, could’ve should’ve talk. I understand what you’re saying, I’m just justifying why I’m looking at him at F4 from hopefully a logical perspective. What have you seen in the preseason from him that you don’t like out of interest? Not what if, but from what you’ve seen and heard turns you off.