Position 2023: Forwards Discussion

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Fyfe aint gonna kick 3 goals every week, wheres the points coming from if he doesnt mark and goal? Applies next to zero defensive pressure and isn't playing high where he can be involved in general play.
Who actually knows that he won't play high and get involved in the general play when he is quiet not hitting the scoreboard though?

He could easily get the Sheezel treatment we saw in the North v Dogs game.
 
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Still scored them though, young player that tired through the season but has the scoring chops. Now add in increase of cba's *fingers crossed* + some natural progression. Not sure what his cba's were in 2021 but last year just 10%. Fwiw I don't think he is a must have but if he does start like 2021 with back to back 130s then there will be a lot of teams scrambling to fit him in.
He’s not going to go at 130 all year though. That’s Ablett territory. 130 up from 72 in one jump is an elite effort. If he does that in 2 rounds you’d have to stick tight I think and focus on rookie corrections. Let the bragging rights play out after R2 :) and then it will normalise over the season.
 
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No value in Fyfe? He has a very viable path to increasing his value by 150K and then you can use him as a stepping stone to a top 6 guy.

Gulden is a forward premium. You are picking Gulden because you think he will be a top 6 forward.
I'm looking at starting Fyfe to use him as a stepping stone only and after looking at Fremantle's draw he could easily have a couple of 100+ scores where he will reach $100k plus profit within first 6 rounds. I'm not picking him to be a keeper but to make money quick to use him to trade to get a keeper in with 2 trades.
 
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Also note Fremantle's draw:

St Kilda
North
West Coast
Adelaide
Gold Coast

He could be 500k+ by round 5 and then you've made 200k and can cash out the risk of injury/poorer scoring for the rest of the season.

Seems like a lot lower risk for that first 5 week schedule than a Ziebell (Job secutiry, position, scoring), Bruhn (scoring history / position played), Flanders (scoring history).
Yea I’m struggling with why you’d pick Flanders over Fyfe other than really need $60k but that’s the fun of the game. Others will be struggling with why you’d do Fyfe over Flanders.
 
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Gulden averaged 27 touches as a junior hes never had any trouble finding the footy if he gets the opportunity, dont think its that hard to see natural progression and a bit more mid time turning an 80 average into 100 pretty easily.
I don’t disagree with that but with the reducing magic number over the season 100 average means he might be at best $50k underpriced or may never go above $500k depending on his low games. At 100 he’s not getting out of easy upgrade reach.
 
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Also note Fremantle's draw:

St Kilda
North
West Coast
Adelaide
Gold Coast

He could be 500k+ by round 5 and then you've made 200k and can cash out the risk of injury/poorer scoring for the rest of the season.

Seems like a lot lower risk for that first 5 week schedule than a Ziebell (Job secutiry, position, scoring), Bruhn (scoring history / position played), Flanders (scoring history).
To gain 200k by round 5 Fyfe needs to average 130+, something he never achieved even at his best. No chance of that.
 
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I am jumping onto the Gulden train. I am hoping for some good spike games and If he averages 95+ he will become a F6 keeper 🤞 If he is plodding along at 75 - 80 he is an easy round 3 downgrade another midpricer/rookie who might be killing it.
 
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I am jumping onto the Gulden train. I am hoping for some good spike games and If he averages 95+ he will become a F6 keeper 🤞 If he is plodding along at 75 - 80 he is an easy round 3 downgrade another midpricer/rookie who might be killing it.
Think 95+ is very realistic for Gulden. Personally tossing up between him & Cunnington
 

Rowsus

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To gain 200k by round 5 Fyfe needs to average 130+, something he never achieved even at his best. No chance of that.
While it's true to say Fyfe has never had a 130 season, he has had 130 patches, and after all, it's only a patch we need. Heck, I'd be happy with a 110-120 patch.
2014 Rnds 13-19 he went 7 @ 136
2015 Rnds 1-13 he went 12 @ 135.
Fair time ago, but it's in history to have some good patches.
 
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While it's true to say Fyfe has never had a 130 season, he has had 130 patches, and after all, it's only a patch we need. Heck, I'd be happy with a 110-120 patch.
2014 Rnds 13-19 he went 7 @ 136
2015 Rnds 1-13 he went 12 @ 135.
Fair time ago, but it's in history to have some good patches.
Yeah but who's trading out a $314k forward averaging 110+ at round 5?

Not this little black duck.
 
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While it's true to say Fyfe has never had a 130 season, he has had 130 patches, and after all, it's only a patch we need. Heck, I'd be happy with a 110-120 patch.
2014 Rnds 13-19 he went 7 @ 136
2015 Rnds 1-13 he went 12 @ 135.
Fair time ago, but it's in history to have some good patches.
Then he was a 23/24 year old playing in the middle.
But now he is a 31 year old playing a less friendly role.
A good way to waste $313k
 
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Gulden averaged 27 touches as a junior hes never had any trouble finding the footy if he gets the opportunity, dont think its that hard to see natural progression and a bit more mid time turning an 80 average into 100 pretty easily.
I think that's an enormous jump on natural progression. There wasn't a player playing his role above 95 last year in the league. Closest comparison would be Moore and he had heavy midfield minutes that boosted his average by 5 points at the end of the season and still didn't hit 95.

He needs a role change imo, it's definitely plausible but I struggle to fit it in, it's possible but I just don't see it personally.

I think the bigger issue is that he needs to really go to 105+, last 3 years allowing for DPP changes, the forward premium line is safely at 105+. I think Gulden can do it if he got a rule change, I don't think he can do that on just natural progression.

I still think he's a solid pick though, he's definitely worth a punt for anyone who believes in a role change, I feel very confident he can push towards 105+ in a midfield role. The most comparable player to Gulden for mine is Zach Merrett, who did break out to 112 in his third season but he had a pure midfield role as well. Brayshaw another similar style, albeit less skillful, who broke to 101 in his 3rd season with a strong midfield role also.

Ultimately the list of 105+ guys that weren't in firm midfield roles last year is Sicily, Stewart, Sinclair, Doch, Dawson, Hurn, Gawn, Witts and English. You'll note there are no HF types in that list.
 
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No one is. But it would be nice, if when he inevitably drives off into a ditch, that he had a little patch like that.
Tom Lynch RIC went from $400k to $575k round 7-10 last year (then got injured).
Fyfe is a pump and dump. If he gets > $500k and you can trade him to Cogs / Rozee / gulden / gawn / whoever, you do it and forget you even had him
 
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I don't think Fyfe is a bad pick. I just don't think he's needed. Lots of ways to make cash this year.
 
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