Position 2023: Forwards Discussion

[Hondo]

Who’s your F4 or F5 - if they’re pumping out 50’s and the money saved isn’t being used to full advantage that’s where it hurts. It’s all what ifs, could’ve should’ve talk. I understand what you’re saying, I’m just justifying why I’m looking at him at F4 from hopefully a logical perspective. What have you seen in the preseason from him that you don’t like out of interest? Not what if, but from what you’ve seen and heard turns you off.

It’s not that I don’t like him I just like Taranto and Rozee better. My F4 is Fyfe. If I was to get him I’d replace Fyfe but currently I don’t have the $160k spare. And I’m prepared to back in Nat to outscore his starting price more than Gulden.

Taranto would be the one I could risk fading for Gulden but at this point I’m sticking with the former.

Unfortunately there’s one too many good forward prospects at his price range and he’s the last.

In fact I’d go for Cogs rather than Gulden cause I can’t fit Cogs in either!

 

[NT.Thunder]

It’s not that I don’t like him I just like Taranto and Rozee better. My F4 is Fyfe. If I was to get him I’d replace Fyfe but currently I don’t have the $160k spare. And I’m prepared to back in Nat to outscire his starting price more than Gulden.

Taranto would be the one I could risk fading for Gulden but at this point I’m sticking with the former.

Unfortunately there’s one too many good forward prospects at his price range and he’s the last.

In fact I’d go for Cogs rather than Gulden cause I can’t fit Cogs in either!

See this is where’s it’s interesting. I see little to no value in Fyfe. Role is terrible, injury history and a decline in scoring history. Champion player of past but I’m struggling to see the upside.

 

[Wheedus]

Doing a bit of a deeper dive on Sam Flanders. Lot's of talk about Flanders and his increased tank and numbers that were posted in the VFL last year. The numbers are impressive where up to round 11 in the VFL he averaged 105 including a round 1 score of 50. Fantasy points also I point out. Now round 11 VFL was the first week of June. Flanders gets an AFL recall in AFL Round 14 mid June where in 6 games he averages just 42 give or take. He plays a few more games of VFL and again big numbers and plays a few more games of AFL and again no where near his VFL stats.

For a guy that played a pretty even split between AFL and VFL there's some big differences in numbers, preseason to me seems closer to a VFL game than a proper AFL season game, does this worry anyone else spending that sort of money.

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Not too concerned. A massive disparity between VFL and AFL is not uncommon particularly for young players with good skills. I actually see it as a positive because it reinforces that they have the fantasy chops. It's just a case of waiting for it to click at the AFL level. He's still relatively young (21) and was a high draft pick (#11, 2019). Obviously, he'd want to be taking the next step this year but it's a pretty easy punt to take. Plenty of bail out options in the forwards.

 

[donnybuang]

Gulden kind of feels like Butters/Rozee v2022

 

[Hondo]

See this is where’s it’s interesting. I see little to no value in Fyfe. Role is terrible, injury history and a decline in scoring history. Champion player of past but I’m struggling to see the upside.

He's priced at about 60. You don't think he will go above that? He's priced to reflect all those risks you mentioned.

Yes, he's up forward but he's such a good contested mark, contested possession winner and goal kicker that means despite the role that he's far from your typical small forward type that we know can still usually average 50 even of very few possessions.

And if the game is on the line I bet he slips into the guts for short bursts.

If he and Gulden were the same price for sure I'd take Gulden. But $160K makes a big difference. Fyfe doesn't need to stay all season but at $313K he's only $60K more than say Flanders who's averaged about 50 for 3 seasons now. If Fyfe fails bail out to similar priced or cheaper options.

 

[Hondo]

Gulden kind of feels like Butters/Rozee v2022

That's an interesting comparison. In 2022 Butters and Rozee were in their 4th year.

This is Gulden's 3rd year. Butters year 3 (2021) was 81.5, Rozee year 3 (also 2021) was 73.5.

Last year Butters 90 and Rozee 92.

This supports why I feel expectations on Gulden in his 3rd year might be too optimistic? AFL is a tough gig to score well consistently. These guys take time to make their impact. Gulden turns 21 in June.

Even Dangerfield took until year 5 to break out from 83 in year 4 to 113 or so.

 

[PressurePoint]

Gulden kind of feels like Butters/Rozee v2022

That's an interesting comparison. In 2022 Butters and Rozee were in their 4th year.

This is Gulden's 3rd year. Butters year 3 (2021) was 81.5, Rozee year 3 (also 2021) was 73.5.

Last year Butters 90 and Rozee 92.

This supports why I feel expectations on Gulden in his 3rd year might be too optimistic? AFL is a tough gig to score well consistently. These guys take time to make their impact. Gulden turns 21 in June.

Even Dangerfield took until year 5 to break out from 83 in year 4 to 113 or so.

Just some comparison of Gulden vs Rozee vs Butters from there first two seasons.

Gulden 100+ in 9/39 games at 23%
4/9 games scored over 130

Butters 100+ in 7/34 games at 21%
0 over 130

Rozee over 100+ in 8/36 games at 22%
1 game scored over 130

Just needs to improve his floor, ceiling is high and cba's should improve the low scores.
It looks like Gulden is ahead of the other two in terms of progression making a 3rd year breakout to premium status possible. If the role is there then giddy up!

 

[Hondo]

Just some comparison of Gulden vs Rozee vs Butters from there first two seasons.

Gulden 100+ in 9/39 games at 23%
4/9 games scored over 130

Butters 100+ in 7/34 games at 21%
0 over 130

Rozee over 100+ in 8/36 games at 22%
1 game scored over 130

Just needs to improve his floor, ceiling is high and cba's should improve the low scores.
It looks like Gulden is ahead of the other two in terms of progression making a 3rd year breakout to premium status possible. If the role is there then giddy up!

2 of Gulden's over 130 scores were his first two games ever. Since R3 of that year it's pretty comparable.

He is on a 5-10ppg higher level trajectory than the Port lads. It is worth noting that both the Port lads did not improve much at all in year 3 despite the promise. Not that history always repeats itself I only referred to them because they were brought up as comparisons. There would be year 3 break out examples we could find.

It would be nice if we didn't have to put the * on it about what his role is going to be. That's a key thing swaying me away when he's almost $500K and I am removing a premium defender perhaps to fit him in.

 

[quite ironic]

He's priced at about 60. You don't think he will go above that? He's priced to reflect all those risks you mentioned.

Yes, he's up forward but he's such a good contested mark, contested possession winner and goal kicker that means despite the role that he's far from your typical small forward type that we know can still usually average 50 even of very few possessions.

And if the game is on the line I bet he slips into the guts for short bursts.

If he and Gulden were the same price for sure I'd take Gulden. But $160K makes a big difference. Fyfe doesn't need to stay all season but at $313K he's only $60K more than say Flanders who's averaged about 50 for 3 seasons now. If Fyfe fails bail out to similar priced or cheaper options.

Also note Fremantle's draw:

St Kilda
North
West Coast
Adelaide
Gold Coast

He could be 500k+ by round 5 and then you've made 200k and can cash out the risk of injury/poorer scoring for the rest of the season.

Seems like a lot lower risk for that first 5 week schedule than a Ziebell (Job secutiry, position, scoring), Bruhn (scoring history / position played), Flanders (scoring history).

 

[PressurePoint]

2 of Gulden's over 130 scores were his first two games ever. Since R3 of that year it's pretty comparable.

He is on a 5-10ppg higher level trajectory than the Port lads. It is worth noting that both the Port lads did not improve much at all in year 3 despite the promise. Not that history always repeats itself I only referred to them because they were brought up as comparisons. There would be year 3 break out examples we could find.

It would be nice if we didn't have to put the * on it about what his role is going to be. That's a key thing swaying me away when he's almost $500K and I am removing a premium defender perhaps to fit him in.

Still scored them though, young player that tired through the season but has the scoring chops. Now add in increase of cba's *fingers crossed* + some natural progression. Not sure what his cba's were in 2021 but last year just 10%. Fwiw I don't think he is a must have but if he does start like 2021 with back to back 130s then there will be a lot of teams scrambling to fit him in.

 

[jarrad_]

With Mckay being out for a while surely Ziebell has to be a lock?

 

[NT.Thunder]

At this stage I don't think there's right or wrong approach in taking or not taking Gulden.

What I think would be wrong is to not identify his strengths and weaknesses as a SC player and not be ready to move one way or another if needed over the first 5 or so rounds.

 

[Montyjnr]

See this is where’s it’s interesting. I see little to no value in Fyfe. Role is terrible, injury history and a decline in scoring history. Champion player of past but I’m struggling to see the upside.

No value in Fyfe? He has a very viable path to increasing his value by 150K and then you can use him as a stepping stone to a top 6 guy.

Gulden is a forward premium. You are picking Gulden because you think he will be a top 6 forward.

 

[Montyjnr]

With Mckay being out for a while surely Ziebell has to be a lock?

They would just replace McKay with Dawson you would expect.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Gulden averaged 27 touches as a junior hes never had any trouble finding the footy if he gets the opportunity, dont think its that hard to see natural progression and a bit more mid time turning an 80 average into 100 pretty easily.

 

[randomcliche]

With Mckay being out for a while surely Ziebell has to be a lock?

A lock down defender or a SC lock? I'm confused.

 

[frosty1]

See this is where’s it’s interesting. I see little to no value in Fyfe. Role is terrible, injury history and a decline in scoring history. Champion player of past but I’m struggling to see the upside.

I see it that there is some chance that at some point of the season Gulden and Fyfe are withing 80-100k on price. They're currently 280k apart.

The upside on Fyfe is that he's priced so low that even just being for (I know, I know) he'll make money in his sleep. Out of the square he might max out at 75ppg, but throw in a couple of spike games and he's at 420k easily enough - if he stays fit. When taking Gulden you have to expect some 80s amongst the good scores (let's call them negative spikes). Is his normal ceiling going to be 180 (in which case those neg spikes won't hurt too much), or is it 120 (in which case a 100-110 average is on the cards). A 105 average would be good for a player of his age, but he wouldn't be getting away from you.

Edit: why on earth did I think Fyfe was 213....313!!

 

[Montyjnr]

Gulden averaged 27 touches as a junior hes never had any trouble finding the footy if he gets the opportunity, dont think its that hard to see natural progression and a bit more mid time turning an 80 average into 100 pretty easily.

Which would be nice I suppose - you get a forward keeper for 30-85K cheaper than the Coniglio/Rozee/Taranto group.

Hardly seems like a season defining move though and personally I would prefer to save more than 30-85K gambling on such a breakout.

 

[PC]

Gulden averaged 27 touches as a junior hes never had any trouble finding the footy if he gets the opportunity, dont think its that hard to see natural progression and a bit more mid time turning an 80 average into 100 pretty easily.

Horse should send Gulden to the Hawks, we gave a Brownlow to the last ball pig he didn't like playing through the mids

 

[dlanod]

The upside on Fyfe is that he's priced so low that even just being for (I know, I know) he'll make money in his sleep.

My big and really only worry on Fyfe is that he doesn't make money in his sleep, or any other time he's not on the field!