Position 2023: Forwards Discussion

[wogitalia]

Tom Lynch RIC went from $400k to $575k round 7-10 last year (then got injured).
Fyfe is a pump and dump. If he gets > $500k and you can trade him to Cogs / Rozee / gulden / gawn / whoever, you do it and forget you even had him

I mean he also scored 167, 184 and 125 in those games, I don't think that's a realistic goal from Fyfe. Fyfe has one score above the 167 (171) in his entire career, in his absolute prime in the perfect role.

I like the Fyfe pick but he's a clear best 22 guy playing a spike role but you're targeting 150k there over 8 weeks. I still like him but his role showed zero in preseason, happy to say I was wrong no his role based on preseason, if he does get midfield time then can always target him, easy trade in.

 

[baz_machine]

Worst case scenario, he gets injured or scores 70-80 role and you hopefully upgrade him to a reclassified FWD round 6

 

[wogitalia]

Worst case scenario, he gets injured or scores 70-80 role and you hopefully upgrade him to a reclassified FWD round 6

I mean worst case he throws up a couple of 60s and then gets injured round 3 on 5 and loses a lot of value, his durability history is bad enough to have that as a reasonable outcome.

I actually think he's a fine pick, looks fit and full preseason is very solid starting point, didn't like the role. I definitely like some of the other options more but can definitely buy him and wouldn't be surprised if he's one of the better midprice guys or even the best.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I don't think Fyfe is a bad pick. I just don't think he's needed. Lots of ways to make cash this year.

My problem with him isnt just the role its also the way his draw plays out, the easy games are all early on when theyll have the least amount of impact on his overall price cycle then he runs into Dogs,Lions,Swans,Cats,Dees and Tigers 6 of the next 7 rounds.

 

[NT.Thunder]

I have a feeling there's a few old hats still in CD that have sent a directive down to the game day statisticians - he'll pick up plenty of points watching the ball let a lone touching it.

 

[Magoos]

thoughts on shai bolton this year, not alot of chat about him with the likes of gulden and tarranto on fire during pre season. feel he could be a real sleeper. had 20 cbas on the weekend will this role continue and can he bump his av from 80s past 3 seasons into the 90s? could be a real pod

 

[neeld]

thoughts on shai bolton this year, not alot of chat about him with the likes of gulden and tarranto on fire during pre season. feel he could be a real sleeper. had 20 cbas on the weekend will this role continue and can he bump his av from 80s past 3 seasons into the 90s? could be a real pod

Personally I find if he kicks straight for goal more to the point will boost him into premium status and arguably the best player in the competition. He is nearing the 20 possession 2 goal average...

 

[wogitalia]

thoughts on shai bolton this year, not alot of chat about him with the likes of gulden and tarranto on fire during pre season. feel he could be a real sleeper. had 20 cbas on the weekend will this role continue and can he bump his av from 80s past 3 seasons into the 90s? could be a real pod

Only really went in there after Prestia went down and didn't play a real midfield role, just in there for the CBA mostly.

Hard to see the improvement, Hopper and Taranto is less midfield time, not more. Martin and Lynch fit would be less forward targets, not more. Could argue Martin does get him a weaker opponent at times but they're quite different matchups so wouldn't be that often.

Basically relying entirely on natural improvement and it's a big leap. It's just exceedingly rare that genuine forwards score 105+ range.

 

[Zimmer]

I notice a lot avoiding Cogs. Just wondering about people's thoughts and reasoning. Is it the uncertainty of his role, or better options generally? The Gulden factor?

 

[randomcliche]

I notice a lot avoiding Cogs. Just wondering about people's thoughts and reasoning. Is it the uncertainty of his role, or better options generally? The Gulden factor?

Dunkley better. Then he’s more expensive than Rozee, Taranto and Gulden who depending on your views can score as much. Not insignificant injury risk. Depends how heavy you want to go in the forward line. I don’t want to run 5 forward premos because of dpp changes. There are good mid price options in Z F B for F5. All just adds up to using the cash on better rookies.

 

[dlanod]

I have a feeling there's a few old hats still in CD that have sent a directive down to the game day statisticians - he'll pick up plenty of points watching the ball let a lone touching it.

If he sees another player in his line of sight, that counts as a contest and a 1%er, right?

 

[Wheedus]

Dunkley better. Then he’s more expensive than Rozee, Taranto and Gulden who depending on your views can score as much. Not insignificant injury risk. Depends how heavy you want to go in the forward line. I don’t want to run 5 forward premos because of dpp changes. There are good mid price options in Z F B for F5. All just adds up to using the cash on better rookies.

Basically this. Apart from Dunks, Cogs is already fully priced. Rozee, Taranto and Gulden have perceived upside so Cogs is the one that gets squeezed out. Cogs can also put in the odd poor game which will then bring his price down making him the better upgrade target. Dunkley less likely to do that.

Cogs is still a good "get what you pay for" pick and for those with reservations over Gulden (Wogi makes a compelling case on this) then Cogs is an obvious pick.

 

[dlanod]

Basically this. Apart from Dunks, Cogs is already fully priced. Rozee, Taranto and Gulden have perceived upside so Cogs is the one that gets squeezed out. Cogs can also put in the odd poor game which will then bring his price down making him the better upgrade target. Dunkley less likely to do that.

Cogs is still a good "get what you pay for" pick and for those with reservations over Gulden (Wogi makes a compelling case on this) then Cogs is an obvious pick.

I'd dispute that Cogs is fully priced. He spent the first half (Rds 1-9) of the year in a different role and his scoring spiked after that - he jumped from an average of 88 to an average of 111. He's priced with those lower scores still in his average.

However I definitely agree that Rozee and Gulden, at least, have more potential upside.

 

[NT.Thunder]

I'd dispute that Cogs is fully priced. He spent the first half (Rds 1-9) of the year in a different role and his scoring spiked after that - he jumped from an average of 88 to an average of 111. He's priced with those lower scores still in his average.

However I definitely agree that Rozee and Gulden, at least, have more potential upside.

I agree - still upside with Cogs - just too much other value in the forwards and I need the cash elsewhere.

 

[jaca]

Tim Taranto is the highest owned player I don't own hmm...

 

[froffershanners]

I notice a lot avoiding Cogs. Just wondering about people's thoughts and reasoning. Is it the uncertainty of his role, or better options generally? The Gulden factor?

I've squeezed Cogs into my line up as I just don't trust any of the forward rookies to be played on field especially when compared to the likes of Phillips and Mackenzie in the mids and Ginbey, McKenna and Constable down back.

With this being the case I'm going with Dunkley, Cogs, Rozee, Taranto, Gulden and one of Flanders, Brun or Fyfe at F6.

Might be crazy starting this way but feel this is the optimum way of keeping the higher scoring rookies on field.

If Petracca or Gawn or any other must have might gain forward status then it is not until round 6 and it is a complete unknown anyway.

I'm not fielding a dodgy F5 and F6 in the hopes of keeping them up my sleeve for a "potential" must-have DPP.

 

[donnybuang]

I notice a lot avoiding Cogs. Just wondering about people's thoughts and reasoning. Is it the uncertainty of his role, or better options generally? The Gulden factor?

Makes no sense to me. GWS are very SC relevant this year. 2022 has already been discussed. In the praccy match he attended 60% of CBAs in just 60% of game time. He's a full time mid with his new coach, capable of 110+ average, who's a free hit in the forwards.

 

[Wheedus]

I'd dispute that Cogs is fully priced. He spent the first half (Rds 1-9) of the year in a different role and his scoring spiked after that - he jumped from an average of 88 to an average of 111. He's priced with those lower scores still in his average.

However I definitely agree that Rozee and Gulden, at least, have more potential upside.

Doubt he goes at 110+ for a whole season. His best average as a midfielder in his prime was 108.5 in 2018. He's 29 now and hasn't got the greatest injury history so I'd say 100-105 is a reasonable expectation which in my book is basically "get what you pay for". Having said that he does have a pretty juicy early draw so the scores could be there early.

 

[sethlad]

Only really went in there after Prestia went down and didn't play a real midfield role, just in there for the CBA mostly.

Hard to see the improvement, Hopper and Taranto is less midfield time, not more. Martin and Lynch fit would be less forward targets, not more. Could argue Martin does get him a weaker opponent at times but they're quite different matchups so wouldn't be that often.

Basically relying entirely on natural improvement and it's a big leap. It's just exceedingly rare that genuine forwards score 105+ range.

The obvious improvement comes from kicking the dozens of goals he's missed through being a smart arse. We all know you don't gain SC points for your highlight reel but conversion could take him to a SC level that matches his ability. Big If though.

 

[Eagling]

I've squeezed Cogs into my line up as I just don't trust any of the forward rookies to be played on field especially when compared to the likes of Phillips and Mackenzie in the mids and Ginbey, McKenna and Constable down back.

With this being the case I'm going with Dunkley, Cogs, Rozee, Taranto, Gulden and one of Flanders, Brun or Fyfe at F6.

Might be crazy starting this way but feel this is the optimum way of keeping the higher scoring rookies on field.

If Petracca or Gawn or any other must have might gain forward status then it is not until round 6 and it is a complete unknown anyway.

I'm not fielding a dodgy F5 and F6 in the hopes of keeping them up my sleeve for a "potential" must-have DPP.

That's exactly what I did; Bruhn F6 so now instead of McLean at F6 I can now rotate him between M7, M8 and virtually swap him with all my D, M and F bench.